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IN THIS EDITION

How Lawler is defying political gravity

Trump, Harris head to Nevada as Senate race tightens

Van Orden challenges ‘extremist’ attacks in tough race

House candidates tout crossover support in final stretch

THE TOP

How Lawler is defying political gravity

Happy Thursday morning and happy Halloween. There are five days until Election Day.

HAVERSTRAW, N.Y. — Heading into this election cycle, Rep. Mike Lawler (R-N.Y.) was expected to be one of the most endangered House Republicans not just in New York but the entire country.

Lawler won his Hudson Valley-area seat — which broke for President Joe Biden by 10 points — in an extremely close race in 2022. The freshman lawmaker has been continually outraised by his opponent, former Rep. Mondaire Jones (D-N.Y.). And House Democratic leaders have invested serious resources toward making this one of the most expensive races in the country.

But it hasn’t exactly panned out the way Democrats hoped.

By many accounts, Lawler has run a remarkably disciplined campaign. He’s built up a strong name ID in the district, cultivating a brand as a bipartisan player who’s occasionally willing to buck his own party. Lawler is leading in all the public polls despite this being a D+3 district.

“I feel very good about where we are with six days to go,” Lawler told us. “We’re winning.”

Even though Jones has a sizable cash advantage, Lawler has raked in $7.7 million as of Oct. 16, according to FEC filings, making him one of the top fundraisers among battleground House Republicans. Jones has raised $9 million.

The amount of money being spent here is staggering. Nearly $20 million has been poured into the district during the month of October alone, according to AdImpact data. Lawler’s campaign also hasn’t been completely perfect. The first-term Republican recently came under fire for wearing blackface in 2006 as a college student, which he apologized for.

House Republican leaders continue to make treks to the district. Speaker Mike Johnson will host a rally with Lawler here later today.

Yet in a sign of how the winds have shifted, the Cook Political Report with Amy Walter moved his race from “toss-up” to “lean Republican.” A Working Families Party candidate on the ballot could also act as a spoiler, hurting Jones.

Policing in the spotlight: Lawler has been bolstered by Jones’ past rhetoric on law enforcement. During the height of the George Floyd protests in 2020, Jones expressed support for moving funding away from police departments, abolishing cash bail and ending qualified immunity for police officers.

Speaking at a candidate forum hosted by Rockland County cops, Lawler highlighted his work with Democratic Sheriff Louis Falco to support local law enforcement, while painting a contrast with Jones:

All candidates on the ballot were invited to the forum. Jones didn’t attend.

Lawler and the House GOP’s top super PAC have spent millions of dollars on ads tying Jones to the “defund the police” movement.

Democrats have sought to rebut that messaging. Jones cut an ad expressing support for law enforcement and saying Lawler is trying to “fool“ voters over “something dumb I said when I was younger.”

At a campaign event, Jones told us “those comments were made before I was ever elected to Congress. And when I was in Congress, I voted for record levels of police funding. I always voted to fund the police.”

Battle for the center: Both candidates have been vying to claim the moderate mantle. Lawler routinely touts his work across the aisle to pass a number of bipartisan bills.

“[Voters] expect us to do the job that we’re elected to do and work with whoever is in power,” Lawler said. “The fact that I’ve been praised by both Joe Biden and Donald Trump speaks to my ability to do that.”

Lawler also has taken some calculated risks to stand up to his own party. But not on every issue.

Asked about former President Donald Trump’s former chief of staff saying the ex-president once privately praised Adolf Hitler, Lawler responded: “Trump denies that. Obviously, Hitler is not someone who should ever be praised.”

Meanwhile, Jones has shied away from the progressive label, calling himself a “pragmatist” with “socially liberal policies.” Jones also has a compelling backstory as a Rockland native, Harvard Law School grad and openly gay Black man.

But a key part of Jones’ strategy, aside from focusing on abortion, has been tying Lawler to Trump. The palm card Jones passes out at campaign events features a picture of Lawler holding a Trump cake. The first issue listed on the flyer is that Jones voted to impeach Trump.

Jones also called out Lawler for recently attending Trump’s controversial Madison Square Garden rally that included a racist stand-up set from a comedian.

It’s a reflection of how the outcome of this race will largely be tied to the top of the ticket. Democrats are still confident Jones can prevail, although they concede it may depend on how Vice President Kamala Harris performs here.

– Melanie Zanona

TODAY AT 9:30 a.m. ET! Sen. Mark Warner (D-Va.) will join us to discuss the news of the day and how 5G supports America’s global competitiveness. Afterward, we’ll host a Brown Bag Live with Jake and Punchbowl News’ John Bresnahan, Max Cohen and Mica Soellner to discuss the political landscape ahead of the 2024 elections and the busy lame-duck calendar. You can still RSVP to join us in person.

CAMPAIGN 2024

Trump, Harris head to Nevada as Senate race tightens

LAS VEGAS — Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are coming here today. Sen. Jacky Rosen (D-Nev.) and Sam Brown would like to hitch a ride.

With five days until Election Day, the vulnerable Democratic incumbent and her GOP challenger are both looking to the top of the ticket for a much-needed boost. The presidential nominees — both of whom are rallying in the Las Vegas area — provide unique benefits to each candidate, even at this late stage.

Rosen has been leading Brown in most public polls. And like other Senate GOP candidates, Brown is lagging behind Trump. So his visit undoubtedly benefits Brown.

Harris’ trip comes as Republicans have seen surprisingly strong early-voting data, prompting a last-minute ad buy from the Senate GOP leadership-aligned super PAC and a raft of top Republicans descending on the Silver State. So Rosen needs Harris to help juice turnout too.

“This is Nevada. Anybody who’s lived here a long time knows… we’re not just the battle-born state, we’re the battleground state,” Rosen told us Wednesday after speaking at an event in East Las Vegas. “We know races tighten up here. But Nevadans have a choice.”

Sprint to the finish: Rosen believes she can hold off Brown, but she knows it’ll be close. After all, just two years ago, Republicans flipped the governor’s mansion and Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D-Nev.) only won by a slim 8,000-vote margin.

Senate Republicans had high hopes for Brown, a gravely wounded combat veteran whose backstory was sure to inspire voters. But Rosen has proven to be a formidable opponent despite Nevada’s longer-term trend toward Republicans.

There’s also the fact that the post-pandemic economic recovery has been much slower in Nevada than elsewhere in the country, which hurts Democrats. Plus, Brown has sought to tie Rosen to the Biden administration’s record on inflation and the U.S.-Mexico border.

“We still have a lot more work to do,” Rosen said. “But I am rated one of the most bipartisan, effective, independent senators… My motto is: Agree where you can and fight where you must.”

Through that mix of bipartisan cred and capitalizing on the state’s abortion rights ballot initiative, Rosen has put herself in a strong position to win. But whether she can beat back a last-minute surge of GOP resources is an entirely different question.

Democrats need Harris to help mobilize Clark County’s hospitality workers in particular — like the famed culinary union here — in order to make up for the strong early-vote turnout by Republicans. Democrats also need a surge of mail-in ballots in Clark County.

To be sure, Rosen and the vulnerable House Democrats in Nevada could still win even if Harris loses here to Trump. But Harris needs to keep it close. That’s why her visit is so crucial for Rosen.

It’s also why Rosen’s closing message involves tying Brown so closely to Trump.

“He doesn’t understand our state,” Rosen said of Brown. “He’s just using us to go to Washington and put in Trump’s agenda. He says it himself.”

Looking ahead: Senate GOP Conference Chair John Barrasso is joining Brown on the campaign trail this week, including at today’s Trump rally. NRSC Chair Steve Daines and Sen. Mike Lee (R-Utah) will be here over the weekend.

Rosen, meanwhile, is holding an abortion rights-focused rally on Friday with Sen. Tammy Duckworth (D-Ill.) and pro-choice groups. This has long been a focus of Rosen’s campaign given the general popularity of abortion rights. Abortion is on the ballot in four Senate battlegrounds, including Nevada.

— Andrew Desiderio

CAMPAIGN TRAIL

Van Orden challenges ‘extremist’ attacks in tough race

Rep. Derrick Van Orden (R-Wis.) has a new message for moderate voters in his battleground district: He’s no extremist, despite his opponent’s claims to the contrary.

Van Orden, a controversial freshman who narrowly flipped Wisconsin’s 3rd District last cycle, has been promoting his efforts to work across the aisle and hasn’t shied away from criticizing some of his far-right colleagues on the campaign trail. Van Orden is facing a competitive challenge by Democrat Rebecca Cooke in the R+4 seat.

“How I’ve chosen to serve in Congress is to govern,” Van Orden told us. “If people come to me with a good idea, we do it regardless of political party affiliation… just because you’re a Democrat doesn’t mean you can’t have a good idea.”

But it’s unclear if this pitch will work. Despite Van Orden’s quiet legislative record as a team player, he’s also become known for temperamental behavior while serving in office.

Polls show the race in a dead heat, although Van Orden maintains a slight edge, according to the Cook Political Report with Amy Walter.

Cooke’s fundraising has been impressive but Van Orden has a significant cash-on-hand advantage heading into the final weeks of the cycle. Cooke had just over $360,000 cash on hand as of Oct. 16, while Van Orden has more than $1 million.

Battle of the mods: Van Orden is playing up his commitment to being a bipartisan member of Congress, highlighting several bills he’s co-sponsored with Democratic colleagues. The majority of them revolve around veterans issues.

The former Navy SEAL is sharing a nonpartisan chart put together by the Lugar Center that shows him as the Wisconsin delegation’s most bipartisan lawmaker since Rep. Mike Gallagher resigned.

Van Orden has also been vocally critical of conservative hardliners who have held up legislation this Congress and his eight GOP colleagues who voted to oust former Speaker Kevin McCarthy.

The Dem attack: Cooke, a Blue Dogs-backed candidate, has been hitting Van Orden on issues like abortion and his conduct in Congress. In a previous interview, Cooke also touted her working-class roots.

Cooke has repeatedly blasted Van Orden for his public outbursts, including an incident where he cursed at Senate pages in the Capitol rotunda. Van Orden also shouted at President Joe Biden during this year’s State of the Union.

Cooke also has sought to tie Van Orden to the Jan. 6 Capitol riot. Van Orden has said he attended former President Donald Trump’s rally that day but left before the violence began.

Van Orden dismissed Cooke’s criticism of his conduct, invoking his military experience in how he handles himself on Capitol Hill.

“I speak very bluntly and plainly because I am a salty old war dog who sees this country going into the drain,” Van Orden said. “You can’t smile your way out of that. You got to go in there, stand up and stand firm or you’re going to get run over.”

– Mica Soellner

ACROSS THE AISLE

House candidates tout crossover support in final stretch

In the waning days of the battle for the House, both Democrats and Republicans in tough races are using members of the other party to bolster their bipartisan credentials.

Republicans for Democrats: This week, Democrat Janelle Stelson launched “Republicans for Janelle” in her 10th District race against Rep. Scott Perry (R-Pa.). Stelson was endorsed by multiple former GOP lawmakers like Adam Kinzinger (Ill.) and Barbara Comstock (Va.). Perry dismissed the push as irrelevant to the voters in the district.

In Nebraska’s 2nd District, Democrat Tony Vargas started running an ad featuring the praise of registered Republicans who had previously supported Rep. Don Bacon (R-Neb.).

Democrat Curtis Hertel, who’s facing Republican Tom Barrett in Michigan’s 7th District, has a group labeled “Republicans and independents for Hertel” backing him. Former 7th District Rep. Joe Schwarz (R-Mich.) is among Hertel’s supporters.

John Avlon, who’s challenging Rep. Nick LaLota (R-N.Y.), unveiled a group of GOP backers last month including former New York GOP Rep. Susan Molinari.

Along with Kinzinger, former GOP Rep. Liz Cheney (Wyo.) is a prominent surrogate for down-ballot Democrats this fall. Cheney is campaigning for Rep. Colin Allred (D-Texas) and Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.) in their high-profile Senate campaigns. Both Cheney and Kinzinger served on the Jan. 6 select committee.

Democrats for Republicans: Republicans running in competitive seats are also increasingly turning to highlighting Democratic voices in campaign messaging.

Bacon has touted Ann Ashford’s endorsement in his race versus Vargas. Ashford’s late husband, former Rep. Brad Ashford (D-Neb.), held the seat from 2015 to 2017.

Derek Merrin, who’s looking to unseat Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D-Ohio), is up with an ad featuring a Democratic union member backing the GOP candidate. The NRCC has a spot running in favor of Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer (R-Ore.) featuring a Democrat saying Janelle Bynum’s crime policies scare him.

The Congressional Leadership Fund has also run a spot featuring a former Rep. Matt Cartwright (D-Pa.) voter pledging to never support the incumbent again due to his immigration stance.

One major difference between the Democratic and GOP messaging is that there isn’t a comparable wave of former Democratic elected officials endorsing Republicans this cycle.

— Max Cohen

THE CAMPAIGN

Rep. August Pfluger (R-Texas), an up-and-comer in House Republican politics, has now given $1.8 million to candidates through his American Battleground fund. In addition, his leadership PAC has given more than $500,000 to members and candidates.

News: Voto Latino is running a pro-Kamala Harris ad aimed at Puerto Rican voters in the United States. The ad features the racist “garbage” language used by comedian Tony Hinchcliffe. Unrelatedly, President Joe Biden made his own controversial “garbage” comment on a Zoom call for Voto Latino this week.

The New Democrat Majority PAC is running three new ads to support Reps. Gabe Vasquez (D-N.M.), Emilia Sykes (D-Ohio) and Yadira Caraveo (D-Colo.). The group is aligned with the New Dem Coalition.

— Max Cohen and Jake Sherman

MOMENTS

CLIPS