What's at stake for Schumer and Thune

IN THIS EDITION

How Schumer and Thune are handling the shutdown

Clark is all in for shutdown fight

Obamacare subsidies meet their moment

Scalise has a new chief of staff

ICYMI: Smith, Luján on small businesses

THE TOP

How Schumer and Thune are handling the shutdown

Happy Friday morning. And happy Halloween.

It’s Day 31 of the government shutdown. There’s no resolution in sight to this crisis.

Leader Look. One of our recurring features at Punchbowl News is “Leader Look,” an analysis of the Big Four congressional leaders. The extraordinary circumstances surrounding the shutdown — including President Donald Trump’s renewed offensive against the Senate filibuster — have made everything much more complicated.

Today we’re going to look at Senate Majority Leader John Thune and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, the two most important Hill players in this drama.

Thune and Schumer. No one has more at stake politically during the shutdown than Schumer — inside his caucus, back home and among Democrats nationally. Thune, GOP leaders and the White House have all tried to label this the “Schumer Shutdown” for a reason. Schumer’s own political future, and his role as Democratic leader beyond 2026, have become linked to the shutdown’s outcome.

Yet Republicans underestimated Schumer’s ability to keep Democrats in line. They believed moderate Democrats would quickly fold when faced with a shutdown threat. That’s proven wildly wrong. Schumer has been able to prevent additional defections after, on the eve of the shutdown, three Senate Democrats voted for the House-passed CR.

Yes, Schumer committed a major gaffe when he said “Every day gets better for us” during the shutdown. He was hammered mercilessly for the remark.

But Republicans — particularly Trump — have failed to take full advantage of the shutdown to hammer Schumer, especially since Senate Democrats are the ones who caused the shutdown by filibustering the GOP’s Nov. 21 stopgap funding bill. A Washington Post-ABC-Ipsos poll showed Trump and Republicans are losing the shutdown messaging fight.

Trump and White House officials have used several different attack lines against Schumer, which is part of the problem.

They claimed Schumer shut down the government “over free healthcare for illegal aliens.” Then Trump said Schumer is “afraid that [Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is] going to run against him” in 2028. Schumer was waiting for after the “No Kings” rally to cave, they argued.

OMB Director Russ Vought canceled funding for the massive Gateway Tunnel transit project, hurting New York (and the whole East Coast.) Trump accused Schumer and Senate Democrats of “holding the entire federal government hostage,” even as federal layoffs by Vought prompted a backlash from some Senate Republicans.

Trump also has focused heavily on foreign policy during the last few weeks, including Thursday’s high-profile meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping. This has helped Schumer and Senate Democrats portray Trump as aloof.

After being absent from the shutdown fight for days, Trump launched a barrage of Truth Social posts late Thursday night, including one calling for the end of the filibuster, something he’s demanded for years. Trump declared: “INITIATE THE “NUCLEAR OPTION,” GET RID OF THE FILIBUSTER AND, MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!”

Trump’s move has the potential to create a new rift with Senate Republicans just as they feel they can get the upper hand on the shutdown fight. It’s exactly what Thune has been trying to avoid.

As for Schumer, he now faces the difficult part of this partisan conflict — how to end it. With SNAP funding running out on Nov. 1, more than 40 million Americans could be directly impacted.

Democrats blame the Trump administration for not tapping into an emergency fund, while the White House points right back at Schumer. The risk here for Schumer and the Democrats is that the pain caused by the shutdown overwhelms their health-care message.

So Schumer has to choose an endpoint. Bipartisan FY2026 spending talks have picked up among rank-and-file senators. But no spending package is anywhere close to moving to the floor. Plus, that won’t resolve the Obamacare subsidies dispute, the key to the shutdown.

There’s lots of discussion that Schumer could use potential Democratic gubernatorial wins in Virginia and New Jersey on Nov. 4 (the Garden State race is close) coupled with a Prop 50 victory in California as a potential off ramp. Remember, Schumer doesn’t necessarily need a direct vote on the Obamacare subsidies. He may not even want one at this point, especially since it might not pass.

For Thune, one of his most difficult jobs during the shutdown — during any crisis, frankly — is keeping Trump in line. Aside from a messaging flub early on, Trump’s shutdown messaging has remained consistent with where Thune is. That was until Trump’s filibuster musings last night. Democrats continue to believe Trump will somehow cave and force Thune to negotiate with them on Obamacare, so it’s important for Republicans to remain in sync.

Yet Thune has also sought to diminish Schumer’s role in any deal to end the showdown. Thune believes Schumer has boxed himself in so much that the New York Democrat isn’t even worth dealing with, arguing that any resolution will come through a negotiation with the rank-and-file Democrats.

Thune may hope this, but it’s extremely difficult to end the shutdown without Schumer. Boxing Schumer out will make other Democrats — especially the moderates Thune wants to woo — uneasy. Thune actually acknowledged that point on Thursday.

And remember the “rifle shot” strategy? Thune teased potential votes on one-off funding bills that would have removed key pain points such as military and air traffic controller pay. But this would have put Thune at odds with Speaker Mike Johnson and the White House, both of whom opposed these maneuvers.

Thune quickly shifted gears and opted to keep up the pressure on Democrats to end the shutdown — only to see Democrats conveniently push the same strategy.

– John Bresnahan, Andrew Desiderio and Jake Sherman

November Events: We’re sitting down with House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee Chair Sam Graves (R-Mo.) on Tuesday, Nov. 4 at 9:30 a.m. ET. Punchbowl News Founder Jake Sherman will talk to Graves about the news of the day, FEMA reform efforts and the role that the federal government plays in disaster response and recovery. RSVP here!

FLY OUT DAY

Clark is all in for shutdown fight

House Minority Whip Katherine Clark went absolutely viral two weeks ago when she told Fox News that the shutdown could hurt the American public, but it “is one of the few leverage times we have.”

It was a foot-in-the-mouth type remark that has given Republicans a boost during the shutdown. But it has the benefit of being true. Shutdowns are, in fact, aimed at using pain to extract policy concessions. Republicans know this well, having sparked two major shutdowns in the last 15 years.

On Fly Out Day Thursday, Clark said that Republicans’ use of the comment was “BS.” Here’s more:

The 62-year-old Clark, the No. 2 House Democrat from a deep blue district outside Boston, is emblematic of the party’s desire to continue fighting in this shutdown.

“We are absolutely going to keep fighting for this,” Clark said. “And that does not mean that it’s like, ‘Oh this pain isn’t real’ and that we are not compassionate and understand the terrible position that people are in. Shutdowns are terrible. And we wish that they had come to the table with us and avoided this.”

This bitter funding stalemate has become a litmus test for House Democratic leaders. Rank-and-file House Democrats are watching Clark and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries very carefully. The pair of top Democrats has so far held the line. They kept all but one Democrat off the Republicans’ CR last month. And, up until now, House Democrats have been united with Senate Democratic leadership. That wasn’t the case during March’s government-funding fight.

But the Democratic harmony could end soon. As we’ve reported, Senate Democrats are getting a bit itchy to end the shutdown. Talks are breaking out all over the Senate, as impacts of the monthlong impasse start to worsen.

“Senate Democrats and House Democrats are aligned in this,” Clark said on the shutdown.

Other news nuggets:

— Clark refused to engage on whether the 88-year-old Del. Eleanor Holmes Norton (D-D.C.) should run for re-election.

“When it comes to running for office and who a district decides to send, those are conversations that involve that member, their families and their supporters,” Clark said of Norton, whose fitness for office is increasingly being questioned publicly. “And I think that she will make a decision based on that.”

— We asked Clark if House Republicans have redistricted so heavily that Democrats have no chance of winning in 2026.

“I’m not saying that’s not going to be a challenge, but we are responding to that, and California, I think, is on the road to victory,” Clark said.

— Clark declared the first thing House Democrats would do if they take the majority is “work on health care” and restore some of the cuts that Republicans made to critical programs.

– Jake Sherman

SHUTDOWN SHOWDOWN

Obamacare subsidies meet their moment

The date Democrats have had circled on the calendar for weeks is about to hit: Open enrollment for Obamacare health insurance plans opens Saturday.

That means many Americans looking to buy health coverage will see premium prices rise. Democrats are gambling that sticker shock will push Republicans to the negotiating table on Obamacare enhanced premium tax credits, their key demand in the government shutdown fight. And they’re confident health care costs and affordability are the right political focal point for the moment.

Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) said her office is getting calls and texts from people saying they’ll need to choose between buying health care or rent. “The Republicans are actively breaking what’s left of our health care system,” Warren said.

This all comes right before closely-watched governor elections Tuesday in Virginia and New Jersey. Rep. Richard Neal (D-Mass.) pointed to those results, along with rising premiums and inflation, converging all at once.

“If there’s a trend line that’s clear, I think that puts additional pressure on Republicans to come back to Washington and actually begin to negotiate and discuss these challenges,” Neal said.

GOP not blinking. Republicans are turning the Nov. 1 spotlight back on Democrats. SNAP, which provides critical food aid for more than 40 million Americans, is set to run dry Saturday. Multiple GOP lawmakers said that’s going to be the bigger crisis than Obamacre premiums.

“I think they miscalculated,” Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) said of Democrats. “The real moment is going to be when people check… their EBT accounts and do not see it in there because [Democrats] refuse to do baseline funding.”

Democrats have been pressing the Trump administration to use $5 billion in contingency funds to cover food aid. Republicans say they can’t legally tap that money and need Democrats to back their CR. The Trump administration has shuffled other funding to address the shutdown’s impacts — despite questions over the legality of the moves — including for military pay.

The rising health care costs could still be a lasting political problem for the GOP heading into 2026. Republicans are bringing up alternative health care options, a sign they’re feeling some pressure.

When we asked GOP Rep. Nick LaLota (N.Y.) about the political situation, the New Yorker said people back home know he’s for a solution. LaLota signed onto a bipartisan bill for a one-year extension of the subsidies.

“I’m eager to find a solution there on credits that… Democrats called when they passed them temporary and pandemic-related,” LaLota said.

— Laura Weiss

THE LEADERSHIP

Scalise has a new chief of staff

Breaking news: Eric Zulkosky will be House Majority Leader Steve Scalise’s new chief of staff.

Zulkosky worked for Scalise from 2011 to 2017, serving in legislative and member services roles. He also handled Scalise’s Energy and Commerce Committee portfolio. Zulkosky then decamped for Fierce Government Relations, where he lobbied for companies like UPS, Yum! Brands, UnitedHealth Group, Oracle and Stripe. He returned to Scalise’s office in May to be floor director, replacing Ben Napier, who left for Andreessen Horowitz.

Zulkosky will succeed Brett Horton, Scalise’s longtime chief of staff who is one of the most powerful House Republican aides.

For Scalise, Zulkosky’s ascension means having another very seasoned hand atop his operation. It also highlights the depth of experience inside Scalise’s office with a leadership comprised of mostly newbies.

– Jake Sherman

PUNCHBOWL NEWS EVENTS

ICYMI: Smith, Luján on small businesses

Punchbowl News joined Goldman Sachs’ 10,000 Small Businesses Summit this week for conversations with Rep. Adrian Smith (R-Neb.) and Sen. Ben Ray Luján (D-N.M.).

Smith discussed the shutdown on Wednesday and said a clean continuing resolution is the right move to avoid the “gamesmanship” in Congress.

He also urged small business owners to share their stories with Congress.

Luján encouraged small businesses to have discussions on Capitol Hill and hold lawmakers accountable.

Luján also said on Thursday that artificial intelligence has “a lot of promise” for small businesses and he wants to ensure it’s more accessible to all.

Watch the full conversations with Smith and Luján.

– Shania Shelton

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