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THE TOP
Happy Tuesday morning. There are five weeks until Election Day.
Breaking overnight: North Korea fired an intermediate-range ballistic missile over Japan on Tuesday, triggering warnings from U.S., Japanese and South Korean officials about the provocative nature of the test. North Korea has engaged in a series of missile launches durings the last 10 days, including before and after Vice President Kamala Harris visited South Korea last week.
Here’s NSC spokesperson Adrienne Watson:
“The United States strongly condemns the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea’s (DPRK) dangerous and reckless decision to launch a long-range ballistic missile over Japan. This action is destabilizing and shows the DPRK’s blatant disregard for United Nations Security Council resolutions and international safety norms.”
House Republicans’ top-of-the-ticket troubles
During the last few weeks, as we’ve talked to House Republicans about the midterm elections, we kept hearing the same gripe. Weak gubernatorial candidates are hurting down-ballot GOP hopefuls in some key states, leading Republicans to fear some potential pickups may be left on the table come Election Day.
→ | Pennsylvania’s GOP nominee for governor, hardline conservative state Sen. Doug Mastriano, has only a small TV ad buy planned right now after running nothing for weeks. Mastriano’s rallies are drawing light crowds, and his stances on abortion, crime, education and cultural issues has become fodder for late-night comedians. Mastriano doesn’t do interviews with mainstream media, relying instead on Facebook and social media to get his message out. |
Mastriano – who’s fighting the Jan. 6 select committee over a subpoena for his attendance at the insurrection – also has aligned with QAnon figures and 2020 election deniers. To national Republicans, this isn’t a winning strategy, especially heading into the campaign’s critical final weeks.
Josh Shapiro, the Democratic nominee for governor, has already spent more than $40 million on his campaign, with more to come. Shapiro, the state’s attorney general, is using his financial muscle to blunt GOP advantages on the economy, crime and other kitchen-table issues. And it’s working. Shapiro was up by 10 points in the most recent public polling.
The Keystone State has three very competitive House seats, all currently held by Democrats. Republicans have the edge in one race, but Democrats are battling to save all three.
In the 7th District, Democratic Rep. Susan Wild – recently named acting chair of the House Ethics Committee – faces a rematch with Republican Lisa Scheller, a wealthy business executive. Republicans have a lead here in a R + 2 seat.
In the 8th District, Rep. Matt Cartwright (D) is facing Republican Jim Bognet. The most recent public polling had Cartwright up eight points over Bognet in a district that former President Donald Trump won by nearly three points in 2020.
And in Pennsylvania’s 17th District, which hugs Pittsburgh, Democrat Chris Deluzio is facing off against Republican Jeremy Shaffer in a district that Rep. Conor Lamb (D-Pa.) has held for two terms. The DCCC released a poll that has Shaffer up six. Now, this is an internal poll, so take that with a grain of salt.
Check out how the Democrats are using Mastriano to their advantage. Here’s an interesting ad from the DCCC tying Shaffer to Mastriano.
“Shaffer wanted to ban abortion, even for victims of rape, or incest. And he would change the constitution to permanently take away our freedom,” the ad’s narrator says. “Shaffer sides with Doug Mastriano. Their extreme plans ban abortion in Pennsylvania.”
→ | In Michigan, Tudor Dixon, the GOP’s gubernatorial nominee, has been the beneficiary of $5.5 million in advertising by Republican groups. But incumbent Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer has benefited from more than $41 million of ads boosting her candidacy. Whitmer is up by 17 points in a poll released Monday night by the Detroit News and WDIV-TV in Detroit. Other polls have Whitmer leading by 10 points. |
And if you listen to House Republicans, Dixon’s anemic showing is why the four seats they could win in Michigan are at risk. Two are pickup opportunities where the GOP is trying to knock off vulnerable Democratic incumbents. Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.) has a lead over Republican Tom Barrett in the 7th District. And five-term Rep. Dan Kildee (D-Mich.) is seen by both parties as pulling ahead of GOP challenger Paul Junge in the 8th District.
In Michigan’s 3rd District, Republicans nominated John Gibbs, a Trump devotee in a district that has been redrawn from a narrow Trump seat to one that strongly backed President Joe Biden. Hillary Scholten, the Democrat, is seen as having the edge. The DCCC spent $450,000 to boost Gibbs in the primary, believing he was easier to beat in the general election.
Here’s what two top-ranking Republicans told us about this top-of-the-ticket drag:
→ | A senior House GOP lawmaker: “The only thing that is holding us back are bad [gubernatorial] and Senate candidates.” |
→ | One Republican involved in House races: “In a few states, weak top of ticket candidates are making it harder to win races than they should be. It’s difficult to run way ahead of the top of the ticket. Abysmal candidates put a limit on what’s achievable.” |
→ | Here’s David Turner, communications director for the Democrats Governors Association: |
“Gov. Whitmer and Josh Shapiro are running on their own unique and impressive records of getting things done to help families with their most pressing needs. They are candidates working hard to win voters from across the political spectrum, and it’s working. So it’s not surprise down-ballot Republicans worry about the political ramifications of the extremism emanating from Tudor Dixon and Doug Mastriano. Both double down on bans on abortion with no exceptions, out-of-touch conspiracies, and a dismantling of public schools.”
Remember this: Despite these problems, House Republicans need to win just six seats to capture the majority. That’s a small net pickup given the size of the playing field.
— Jake Sherman, John Bresnahan and Max Cohen
Later this month: Meet us in Miami, or join us on the livestream for our interview with Mayor Francis Suarez (R) on Monday, Oct. 17 at 10 a.m. ET. We’ll be talking to him about issues facing small business owners coming out of the pandemic, during the final installment of our “Road to Recovery” series. RSVP here!
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GOP CANDIDATE REPORT
Report: Herschel Walker paid for an abortion. And his son goes off
It was an eventful Monday night in the Georgia Senate race. In a blockbuster story, the Daily Beast reported that Herschel Walker, the GOP candidate challenging Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-Ga.), paid for an abortion for his then-girlfriend back in 2009.
Walker is strongly opposed to abortion without exceptions, including rape, incest or the life of the mother.
According to the Daily Beast report, the woman has a Sept. 12, 2009, receipt for $575 for the procedure. Five days later, Walker allegedly sent her a $700 personal check and a “Get Well” card that he signed.
The Senate GOP candidate – already facing scandals over past violent behavior and an inflated resume as a business entrepreneur – has been forced to acknowledge during the campaign that he had three children outside of marriage.
Walker did an interview with Fox News’ Sean Hannity after the Daily Beast story broke on Monday and denied the allegations. Walker’s campaign said it planned to sue the publication for defamation.
Walker called the story “a flat-out lie” and suggested Democrats planted it in order to win the Georgia Senate race:
“I can tell you right now – I never asked anyone to get an abortion. I never paid for an abortion, it’s a lie.”
Walker claimed the new allegations “have energized me even more.”
But to make matters worse, Walker’s son Christian responded to the story. Here was his response.
Christian also said in a tweet that Herschel Walker’s family asked the former football star not to run for public office given his background.
Of course, in previous election cycles, this kind of scandal – if true – could sink Walker’s run for the Senate. But we’re not sure what the impact here will be. We’ll note that Rep. Scott DesJarlais (R-Tenn.) won reelection a decade ago (and keeps winning) despite a scandal over reports that he urged his ex-wife and mistress to have abortions. DesJarlais’ official stance is anti-abortion.
Yet that was before Twitter and social media became as powerful as they are now, so it’s going to be tougher for Walker to try to move past this.
It’s also important to note that reputable public polling has Warnock up five points over Walker.
– Jake Sherman and John Bresnahan
PROGRESSIVES
Jayapal: CPC’s fingerprints are all over 117th Congress
Congressional Progressive Caucus Chair Pramila Jayapal is fed up with the “narrative that progressives can’t govern,” she told reporters on a press call Monday. As the Washington Democrat publicly explores a leadership run, Jayapal said that all of the major bills Congress passed this term “have the fingerprints of the CPC all over them.”
Let’s pause here for a moment. Jayapal is the chair of the CPC, and she’s using a pre-election lull on the Hill to tout her group’s successes in legislating. This is someone who recognizes that too many people blame the left for roadblocks in legislating and she wants to try to dispel that narrative ahead of what looks like an all-but-certain leadership run.
→ | Jayapal wouldn’t reveal much when we asked her to expand on her leadership ambitions. |
“We don’t know what’s going to happen. It’s important to say that everyone that’s been in leadership has been doing an enormous service and who knows what will happen,” Jayapal said.
“If I can play a role in one of the top leadership positions, I will. I am definitely looking at that. A lot is obviously still uncertain, and we will have to see,” the three-term lawmaker added.
→ | Jayapal took a shot at House Democratic leaders over their handling of the STOCK Act. We scooped last week that House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer was opposed to the bill to ban stock trading by lawmakers and senior aides, a stance Jayapal alluded to in her comments. |
“[The opposition] was very difficult for us… this should have been a no brainer,” Jayapal declared.
→ | Jayapal said she’s “200% focused on the upcoming November elections” and plans to campaign for Democratic candidates all across the country. The CPC chair added that she’d join Sen. Tina Smith (D-Minn.) to campaign for Democrats up and down the ballot in Minnesota this fall. |
— Max Cohen
PRIVACY WATCH
New Dem coalition endorses privacy bill
The New Democrat Coalition is officially endorsing the American Data Privacy and Protection Act, a bipartisan bill opposed by many in the California delegation, including Speaker Nancy Pelosi.
The bill is co-sponsored by House Energy and Commerce Committee Chair Frank Pallone (D-N.J.), Ranking Member Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R-Wash.) and Reps. Jan Schakowsky (D-Ill.) and Gus Bilirakis (R-Fla.).
The legislation seeks to establish a national privacy standard for every state that would limit companies from collecting individuals’ personal data.
The bill advanced out of the Energy and Commerce Committee in July by an overwhelming vote of 53-2, but it hasn’t moved since then. This is similar to what happened to Big Tech antitrust legislation in both chambers – high-profile introductions, followed by successful committee action, and then nothing.
California Democrats, led by Pelosi, are wary of the bill and favor California’s state-level privacy law instead.
Here’s Pelosi’s September statement explaining her position on the bill.
Pelosi added that “We will continue to work with Chairman Pallone to address California’s concerns” with the American Data Privacy and Protection Act. As of now, it is unlikely the legislation gets taken up in the lame-duck session.
— Max Cohen
THE CAMPAIGN
→ | A new poll in North Carolina shows a virtual tie in the race for retiring Sen. Richard Burr’s (R-N.C.) seat. A new WRAL poll has Rep. Ted Budd (R-N.C.) beating Democrat Cheri Beasley 43%-42%. You’ll hear a lot of complaining about North Carolina from Democrats, who say the Tarheel State always disappoints them. But this is another tight poll just 35 days out from Election Day. Every poll for the last six weeks shows a toss-up race. |
→ | Mason-Dixon has Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) up six points over Rep. Val Demings (D-Fla.). |
→ | Democrat John Fetterman has a six-point lead over Republican Mehmet Oz in a new USA Today/Suffolk University poll of the Pennsylvania Senate race. |
→ | Democrat Brad Pfaff, who’s running for retiring Rep. Ron Kind’s (D-Wis.) seat, is attacking his Republican opponent, Derrick Van Orden, for his involvement in the Jan. 6 insurrection. |
“I’m a veteran. I know what it looks like to love your country. And this isn’t it,” Ret. U.S. Army veteran Gaylord Oppegard says in the spot. “Derrick Van Orden was on the Capitol Grounds on Jan. 6, broke past the police barricades and was part of a riot that injured over 100 cops. And some of them ended up dying.”
The ad is reminiscent of Rep. Marcy Kaptur’s (D-Ohio) attacks against her GOP opponent, J.R. Majewski, who was also in D.C. on Jan. 6.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tFqlu0xQyZE
→ | Madison Gesiotto Gilbert is up with a new ad filmed in a factory that is all about boosting U.S. manufacturing. Gilbert is a Republican running against Democrat Emilia Sykes in Ohio’s 13th District. The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter gives Democrats a slight edge in this race. |
“Supporting American workers is the only way out of Biden’s recession,” Gilbert says in the spot. “But the liberals in Washington would rather sell us out to special interests, and countries like China.”
→ | The DCCC is running new ads in two of the country’s most competitive districts to protect incumbent Frontline Reps. Chris Pappas (D-N.H.) and Susan Wild (D-Pa). |
One spot dings Karoline Leavitt, Pappas’ GOP opponent, for her Social Security reform ideas and suggests she’s a danger to seniors. The other ad accuses Wild’s challenger, Lisa Scheller, of “selling out Pennsylvania jobs” by closing a factory in the commonwealth and opening new factories in China.
— Max Cohen
FRONTS
MOMENTS
10:15 a.m.: President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris will get their daily intelligence briefing.
11:25 a.m.: Harris will speak at the Freedman’s Bank Forum at the Treasury Department.
Noon: Biden and Harris will have lunch together.
1 p.m.: Karine Jean-Pierre will brief.
3:30 p.m.: Biden and Harris will attend a meeting of the Task Force on Reproductive Healthcare Access. HHS Secretary Xavier Becerra, Education Secretary Miguel Cardona, VA Secretary Denis McDonough, OMB Director Shalanda Young and Office of Science and Technology Policy Director Eric Lander will also attend.
CLIP FILE
NYT
→ | “Top Republican Pledges to Make House Intelligence Committee Less Partisan,” by Julian Barnes |
→ | “Crypto Needs More Rules and Better Enforcement, Regulators Warn,” by Ephrat Livni |
→ | “Russia’s Small Nuclear Arms: A Risky Option for Putin and Ukraine Alike,” by David Sanger and William J. Broad |
WaPo
→ | “Trump’s lawyer refused his request in February to say all documents returned,” by Josh Dawsey and Jacqueline Alemany |
Bloomberg
→ | “Republicans Set Record for Black, Latino Candidates Despite Trump’s Appeals to White Voters,” by Akayla Gardner |
Politico
→ | “Dems agonize over N.C. spending debacle as Senate race tightens,” by Marianne LeVine |
Miami Herald
→ | “About 100 deaths across 10 Florida counties linked to Hurricane Ian,” by Tess Riski |
Editorial photos provided by Getty Images
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