Polls, elections and shutdown talks: A huge week in D.C.

IN THIS EDITION

Shutdown pain grows, polls shift with Election Day one year out

A new GOP civil war takes hold

Hunt’s committee voting record under scrutiny

CHC BOLD PAC backs Villegas and Rutinel

THE TOP

Shutdown pain grows, polls shift with Election Day one year out

Happy Monday morning. Welcome to November.

This is Day 34 of the government shutdown. There’s no resolution in sight to the crisis, although there is some movement. More on that below.

FYI, the House hasn’t been in session for 45 days.

Today marks one year out from the 2026 midterm elections. An NBC News poll released Sunday has Democrats up eight points on the generic ballot. This roughly matches where Democrats were ahead of the 2018 midterms when they won 40 seats and seized control of the House. Be on the lookout Tuesday morning for a special edition Tally newsletter where we’ll go deep on the state of play for control of Congress.

There’s a lot of time before voters cast their ballots next fall. White House officials also criticized the NBC poll as an outlier. We’ll note that DCCC’s own recent internal poll — which we scooped here — had Democrats up by four points on the generic ballot in battleground districts.

But only 41% of Americans approve of President Donald Trump’s handling of the presidency versus 59% who disapprove, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News-Ipsos poll. Among independents, only 30% approve, with 69% disapproving of Trump’s performance.

On the economy — the issue that carried Trump back to the White House — it’s 37%-62%. These Trump economic numbers are in line with other recent polls. This is a serious problem for Republicans.

Even worse for Trump, Speaker Mike Johnson and Senate Majority Leader John Thune, 45% of Americans blame Republicans for the shutdown, while only 33% blame Democrats, according to the NBC poll.

This should put some wind in the sails of House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, both of whom will have an interesting week as Zohran Mamdani cruises to the mayorship in New York City.

Don’t worry, Schumer is still talking to Mamdani about that endorsement. We’re sure it’s coming any moment now.

Shutdown latest. Even as party leaders and Trump refuse to meet with each other on ending the standoff, rank-and-file senators on both sides are talking, focusing on finding some agreement on FY2026 spending bills. The hope is that an agreement on spending can help unlock the shutdown.

Those bipartisan talks continued over the weekend, and there’s some optimism about getting to a resolution.

However, Trump and the GOP leaders are showing no signs of caving on extending the expiring Obamacare premium subsidies. Schumer and Jeffries continue to demand an extension as part of any deal to reopen the government. So the standoff grinds on. Open enrollment began on Saturday.

Trump said on “60 Minutes” Sunday night that if Democrats vote to reopen the government, “we should fix” health care.

“And we can fix it with the Democrats. All they have to do is let the country open and we’ll fix it,” Trump said.

Yet voters will have a say now, and this could shift the shutdown dynamics drastically. Maybe even help bring it to a close.

First off, Tuesday is Election Day in New Jersey, Virginia and California. Former Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D-Va.) and Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-N.J.) are both favored in their respective gubernatorial contests. In New Jersey, it’s tight.

In California, Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom is leading the push for Prop 50, which would allow them to redistrict as many as five GOP seats. This would be a major plus for Democrats, who are getting swamped nationally on the redistricting front. The initiative looks certain to pass.

If Democrats win in all three states, they’ll claim the American public is backing them on the shutdown and health care — particularly if the party overperforms.

If Jack Ciattarelli is close in New Jersey or even pulls a big upset win, Republicans will say their position — that the Democrats’ shutdown stance is dangerous — won out. In reality, there probably isn’t a gigantic correlation between the two events.

Second, a federal judge ruled on Friday that the Trump administration has to begin paying out SNAP benefits to states. Trump said it would be his “honor” to pay out SNAP benefits if the court directed him to.

Third, Trump is continuing his pressure campaign on Senate Republicans to eliminate the filibuster. Here’s Trump on Sunday night (after similar posts on Saturday):

On “60 Minutes,” Trump said, “The Republicans have to get tougher. If we end the filibuster, we can do exactly what we want.”

As of now, this isn’t a gigantic problem for Thune. Thune’s staff has reiterated that the majority leader’s position hasn’t changed. He’s opposed to ending the filibuster. Senate Majority Whip John Barrasso, a big Trump ally, is too. Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), a close Trump ally, told us in Las Vegas over the weekend that there’s no point in ending the filibuster because, in his view, the shutdown will end this week.

A look around the country. You can definitively see a change of tone in the coverage of the shutdown, especially on SNAP and the soaring cost of health care.

— The Morning Call (Allentown, Pa.): “Government closure reaches inflection point”

— Orlando Sentinel (Orlando, Fla.): “‘Huge sticker shock’ for Floridians: Residents get a look at Obamacare price hikes”

— Dothan Eagle (Dothan, Ala.): “UNCERTAINTY OVER FOOD AID DEEPENS”

— Longview News-Journal (Longview, Texas): “‘THIS IS A CRISIS’: City, food pantries to host Nov. 7 food drive in light of SNAP loss”

— Arkansas Democrat Gazette (Little Rock, Ark.): “Furloughed workers face benefits hurdles”

— The Spectrum (St. George, Utah): “Trump crackdown upends life in cities”

— Jake Sherman, Andrew Desiderio and John Bresnahan

Happening tomorrow at 9:30 a.m. ET: Join us for a conversation with House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee Chair Sam Graves (R-Mo.) about news of the day, FEMA reform efforts and the role that the federal government plays in disaster response and recovery. RSVP to save your spot!

RJC DISPATCH

A new GOP civil war takes hold

LAS VEGAS — As Rep. Randy Fine (R-Fla.) was laying into Tucker Carlson during a speech to fellow Jewish Republicans on Saturday, a group of students stood in front of the stage holding signs that read “TUCKER IS NOT MAGA.”

With the crowd cheering him on at the annual Republican Jewish Coalition summit, Fine called Carlson “the most dangerous antisemite in America” and accused him of leading a “modern-day Hitler Youth.”

Fine is seen as a provocateur on Capitol Hill, often using incendiary rhetoric on a range of topics, including Gaza. But Fine was channeling the sentiments of an overwhelming majority of Hill Republicans after the Heritage Foundation stood by Carlson following his friendly interview with white nationalist and antisemite Nick Fuentes.

Top Republicans blame Carlson and his grip on the MAGA movement for what they see as rising antisemitism and declining support for Israel within their party, particularly among the younger generation.

In a fiery speech, Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) said the GOP is facing an “existential crisis” over right-wing antisemitism. But too many Republicans, Cruz added, won’t confront these forces by name because they’re “terrified of upsetting people with really big megaphones.”

The latest Carlson drama is pitting GOP lawmakers against MAGA influencers and is threatening to reopen old wounds for Republicans, particularly the long-running struggle over the party’s foreign policy direction.

The fight on the right. House GOP Conference Chair Lisa McClain acknowledged in an interview that Carlson has a “big following” but asserted he doesn’t speak for Republicans.

Yet Carlson is in many ways the embodiment of the MAGA movement and has a ton of influence in the party. And Carlson counts Vice President JD Vance as a key ally. These factors help explain why some Republicans here declined to condemn Carlson and Heritage by name.

“What I will just say is that antisemitism has no place in the Republican Party,” North Carolina GOP Senate candidate Michael Whatley said in an interview when asked if he agrees with Fine that Carlson should be purged from the MAGA movement.

Carlson had a prime speaking slot at the GOP convention last year. Whatley, who chaired the RNC at the time, wouldn’t say whether he regrets allowing Carlson to speak.

Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.) told us that Republicans shouldn’t “promote people who want to destroy our relationship with Israel.”

“We can’t give those [antisemitic] views credibility by engaging in some way that this is a reasonable discourse,” Sen. Dave McCormick (R-Pa.) said in an interview.

McCormick and Cruz are tanking President Donald Trump’s nominee for U.S. ambassador to Kuwait, Amer Ghalib, who has a history of antisemitic and anti-Israel statements.

Common themes. Right-wing antisemitism was a major focus of the RJC gathering. Nearly every headliner referenced the need to root out antisemitism in the GOP.

Yet most of the speakers, regardless of whether they denounced Carlson by name, downplayed the issue by arguing it’s a much bigger problem on the left. They pointed to the likely election of Zohran Mamdani — a Muslim and democratic socialist — as mayor of New York City.

Some Republicans also dodged on whether Trump or Vance should speak up. They said Trump has been the most pro-Israel president in U.S. history and that it’s no secret where he stands. Trump didn’t mention the controversy during his video message to RJC members.

The politics. For many Republicans, confronting these views isn’t just a moral imperative, but also a political one. The GOP made inroads with Jewish voters in 2024 as support for Israel among Democrats declined. Many Republicans believe failing to call out antisemitism and anti-Israel views in their party would jeopardize that progress.

The saga has also brought the 2028 presidential election into focus as Republicans begin to consider who should succeed Trump as the party’s standard-bearer. This is especially true for Vance given his alignment with Carlson.

Case in point: Secretary of State Marco Rubio got several shoutouts from various RJC speakers, and some explicitly said Rubio should be the next president.

— Andrew Desiderio

LONE STAR POLITICS

Hunt’s committee voting record under scrutiny

Rep. Wesley Hunt’s entry into the Texas Republican primary has embroiled him in a bitter fight with incumbent Sen. John Cornyn.

Hunt has attacked Cornyn — already under pressure from Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton — as a “zombie” candidate who helped negotiate a gun-control deal following the 2022 Uvalde school shooting.

Hunt also pointed to public criticism of Cornyn from President Donald Trump. Trump hasn’t endorsed in the Texas GOP primary yet, despite heavy lobbying to back Cornyn from Senate Majority Leader John Thune and NRSC Chair Tim Scott.

Cornyn’s camp has responded with their own offensive against Hunt’s habit of missing floor votes. A Cornyn campaign spokesperson noted that the two-term lawmaker has missed more than one quarter of floor votes since Hunt won his House seat. Cornyn’s campaign also made sure everyone knew Hunt didn’t vote for Trump in 2016 and criticized the president for bashing the late Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) in 2021.

In response to the missing votes claim, Hunt released a video from his wife, Emily, where she discussed the difficult birth of their son in 2023. Hunt’s campaign also said that he missed some votes while out campaigning for Trump.

“Wesley Hunt’s record is not only unimpeachable, it’s unmatched by anyone in this race,” a Hunt spokesperson said. “As a Member of Congress, Wesley has been a workhorse, not a ‘show horse,’ as Cornyn’s campaign has claimed…whatever that’s supposed to mean.”

Committee check. Hunt’s committee voting record is worse than his floor voting record over both Congresses.

The former Army helicopter pilot and combat veteran has missed a large percentage of votes in the Judiciary and Natural Resources committees. Hunt served on the Small Business Committee during the 118th Congress but isn’t on the panel this Congress.

The 43-year-old Hunt — who dubbed himself the “Energy Congressman of the World” — missed 30% of the full Natural Resources Committee hearings and markups since 2023, according to a review of committee records (the Cornyn camp says the number is higher). This includes a field hearing in Midland, Texas, ground zero for the state’s massive oil and natural gas industry.

The Texas Republican missed 12 out of 28 full Judiciary Committee hearings and markups, which is more than 40%. Some of these took place during recess, while Hunt was out campaigning or home with his family.

Hunt’s subcommittee record is also spotty, with dozens of missed sessions on both his two current panels and Small Business.

Despite being in his second term, Hunt isn’t on an “A” committee — Appropriations, Energy and Commerce, Financial Services or Ways and Means.

Hunt’s legislative record is limited, too. Hunt has sponsored 18 bills and resolutions since he entered Congress. Only one — a bill dealing with royalty payments — became law in its original form.

The identical Senate version of a Hunt bill — the Recruit and Retain Act — was passed and signed into law. Another Hunt bill was included in the One Big Beautiful Act.

More from the Hunt spokesperson:

The lack of legislative accomplishments isn’t that unusual for a second-term member. Yet Hunt is challenging Cornyn, who has a long record of legislative achievements. Paxton has been in Texas politics for decades, too.

We’ll also put this out there — as far as we can tell from the Congressional Record, Hunt hasn’t spoken once on the House floor during this Congress. Hunt made floor speeches a number of times during the 118th Congress, but nothing this year.

– John Bresnahan

PRIMARY WATCH

CHC BOLD PAC backs Villegas and Rutinel

News: The Congressional Hispanic Caucus BOLD PAC is endorsing a slate of candidates in crowded House primaries for top Democratic flip opportunities.

The BOLD PAC is backing Randy Villegas in California’s 22nd District and Manny Rutinel in Colorado’s 8th District.

Villegas is running against state Assemblymember Jasmeet Bains for a chance to knock off Rep. David Valadao (R-Calif.). Democrats have long targeted this heavily Latino Central Valley seat, but Valadao has consistently won reelection while outrunning other Republicans.

Rutinel is aiming to knock off freshman Rep. Gabe Evans (R-Colo.). But there’s a massive primary in the 8th District, featuring the Colorado state treasurer, a former education union leader and a state representative. BOLD PAC is also endorsing Robin Peguero in Florida’s 27th District. Peguero, a prosecutor, is trying to defeat Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar (R-Fla.).

— Max Cohen

THE CAMPAIGN

Lone Star Freedom Project, a 501(c)(4), is running a new ad across Texas boosting Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas). The spot features a retired Border Patrol division chief, saying that Cornyn is “behind the scenes, getting the job done” to secure the border. The ad also notes that Cornyn votes with President Donald Trump 99% of the time. Watch the ad here.

– Jake Sherman

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