The very bumpy end to the shutdown

IN THIS EDITION

The Senate takes a big step toward reopening government

Johnson faces multitude of challenges in House vote to reopen government

Ex-members eye comeback bids in 2026

Syria sanctions in the balance

THE TOP

The Senate takes a big step toward reopening government

Happy Monday morning.

This is Day 41 of the government shutdown. It’s likely to end this week, although the final chapter may be slower — and dumber — than everyone hopes.

The latest. The Senate voted 60-40 late Sunday to move forward with a stopgap funding bill to reopen the government through Jan. 30, combined with a three-bill minibus covering FY2026 funding for MilCon-VA, Agriculture and the Legislative Branch. This package includes language reversing the mass firing of federal workers during the shutdown and barring future layoffs through Jan. 30.

This was a huge moment. Eight Senate Democrats broke with the party in voting to end the shutdown in exchange for a commitment from Senate Majority Leader John Thune to hold a vote by mid-December on expiring Obamacare subsidies — an offer Thune first made weeks ago. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, who’s faced tremendous criticism from both the left and right during the impasse, was a no. That’s not saving Schumer from progressive fury, however.

The Senate will come in at 11 a.m. today. While senators hope to finish voting on the CR-minibus package today to get home in time for Veterans’ Day on Tuesday, that would require consent from all 100 senators.

Then the House will need to take up the package. This could be Wednesday or Thursday. Much more on this below.

We’ll note that GOP leaders are now saying House members will get 36 hours — not 48 hours as previously promised — before any floor votes. But if you’re a House member, you should just start heading for Capitol Hill right now, just in case.

Dems’ dilemma. The endgame of the shutdown is a major challenge for Schumer and other Democratic leaders, who now have to manage a situation where they may privately agree with the outcome but are publicly opposed. The base is very angry at Schumer — again — even though he voted with them.

Most Senate Democrats were seething after a two-and-a-half-hour caucus meeting on Sunday night, lamenting that the handful of their colleagues providing the votes to reopen the government were making a huge mistake.

Democrats saw last week’s election victories as a validation of their shutdown strategy that put them in an even stronger position. President Donald Trump said the shutdown has been “worse for us than for them.”

“It would be a policy and political disaster for Democrats to cave,” Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) said. “Essentially, if Democrats cave on this issue, what it would say to Donald Trump is he has a green light to go forward toward authoritarianism. And I think that would be a tragedy for this country.”

Yet it was also painfully obvious after 40 days that Senate Republicans weren’t going to engage on the Obamacare subsidies until the shutdown was over. Plus, Trump won’t go over the heads of Thune and Speaker Mike Johnson to cut a deal with Schumer and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, no matter how much they tried to goad him. In short, the Democrats’ strategy didn’t work here.

And let’s be honest — there’s a big contingent of Democratic senators who would’ve never voted to open up the government.

The eight Senate Democrats who voted to end the shutdown saw it this way: The party’s shutdown strategy wasn’t working, and there was no evidence that prolonging the impasse would force Republicans to the table. Not even Schumer could convince them otherwise.

“Most of us up here… have voted repeatedly with the Democratic strategy,” Sen. Tim Kaine (D-Va.) said. “But after 40 days, it wasn’t gonna work.”

Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (N.H.), one of the lead Democratic negotiators, said it was clear that “there was no vote” they’d get on Obamacare while the government remained closed. With Thune’s commitment, Sen. Angus King (I-Maine) added, “there’s a lot better chance” to get something done.

This group wants to work with Republicans to craft a health-care bill that could get 60 votes — although there’s no guarantee of a House vote. These Senate Democrats have already been exchanging potential legislative language with Republicans, including Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-La.), who chairs the Senate’s health committee and told us he’s planning to hold hearings.

It’s also worth noting that Democrats still have some leverage. They could try to shut down the government again on Jan. 30 if they feel their demands haven’t been met. Shaheen said Sunday that that could be an option.

Schumer fallout. From the beginning of the shutdown fight, it was clear that Schumer wouldn’t emerge unscathed. Even though he opposed the shutdown-ending deal, Schumer was criticized for being unable to hold his caucus together.

The fury at Schumer and the eight other Senate Democrats was palpable on Sunday, both on social media and inside the Democratic Caucus. A number of 2026 Democratic Senate candidates — none of whom Schumer recruited — were calling for his ouster or saying they wouldn’t vote for him as Democratic leader if they won.

We asked Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) whether Schumer “had done a good job here.”

After a lengthy pause, Warren responded: “I think the American people want us to stand and fight for health care. Obviously, that’s not happening.”

Yet shutdowns almost never yield real legislative wins for the side instigating them – in this case, Democrats – and Republicans didn’t want to break with that precedent. Schumer believed public pressure would force Trump and Republicans to extend the Obamacare subsidies. In the end, Republicans never buckled.

The shutdown was also beginning to hurt some of the very groups Democrats say they fight for, including millions of SNAP and federal aid recipients.

There’s one more thing — it also achieved a key political goal for Democrats, which was to elevate health care as a central issue for 2026.

— Andrew Desiderio and John Bresnahan

NEW: Punchbowl News reporters Ally Mutnick and Max Cohen will be hosting a Reddit AMA on the r/Politics subreddit today at 2 p.m. EST. They will be discussing last week’s elections, the 2026 midterms and redistricting. Join the conversation when the post is published, starting at 1 p.m. EST here.

THE HOUSE

Johnson faces multitude of challenges in House vote to reopen government

House Republican leaders will announce in the next day or two that they’re bringing the chamber back into session for the first time in more than 50 days.

With the Senate barrelling toward passing a three-bill minibus and a CR with a Jan. 30 expiration date, the House will need to come back as soon as Wednesday or Thursday to pass the package. Senior House GOP leadership aides say that they won’t give the official nod for lawmakers to come back until the Senate passes the package.

Massive challenges await Speaker Mike Johnson and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries.

Above all, there’s going to be lots of venting over the enforced absence ordered by Johnson. You can expect a tidal wave of feelings to be expressed, especially from House Democrats. So many feelings.

The vote count. Jeffries is against this spending package — just like Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer.

After a 40-day shutdown, House Democrats are getting little of what they want. There’s no framework to extend the expiring Obamacare tax credits and no language to eliminate President Donald Trump’s ability to enact rescissions without Congress. Addressing those two issues were among the stated goals of this shutdown.

Senate Majority Leader John Thune has agreed to hold a vote on the expiring extended Obamacare subsidies before the end of December. But Johnson hasn’t made any promise to hold a House vote. In fact, Johnson has said he wants to have a “deliberative” process in the House.

The whip count is looking troubling in the House too.

With Jeffries as a no, this becomes the default position in the House Democratic Caucus. House Minority Whip Katherine Clark signaled in a statement that she would vote no as well.

Other high-profile Democrats opposed so far include: Reps. Ritchie Torres (N.Y.), Angie Craig (Minn.), Haley Stevens (Mich.) and Greg Casar (Texas).

Important Democrats to watch include Reps. Josh Gottheimer (N.J.), Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (Wash.), Jared Golden (Maine), Don Davis (N.C.) and Henry Cuellar (Texas).

We spoke to several of the Democratic moderates and they don’t seem eager to vote for a deal in which Democrats didn’t get a single concession.

Johnson, meanwhile, will argue that Democrats folded — which is true. But Johnson has big challenges too.

When the House comes back, Johnson has said he’ll finally swear in Adelita Grijalva (D-Ariz.). The House will then have 219 Republicans to 214 Democrats. This means Johnson and House GOP leaders can only lose two votes and pass a bill on their own.

Two Republicans voted against the last funding bill — Reps. Thomas Massie (Ky.) and Victoria Spartz (Ind.).

This time, Johnson will be asking Republicans to swallow two full FY2026 spending bills — Agriculture and Legislative Branch — that the chamber never passed.

Yet House Appropriations Committee cardinals — including HFC Chair Andy Harris (R-Md.) — helped negotiate the minibus compromise. So the speaker is hoping to get back up from conservatives.

And remember: The White House is in favor of this package. So you should expect Trump to help move votes if needed.

Planes, trains and automobiles. Let’s talk about logistics first, because the House doesn’t have proxy voting anymore.

Airports around the country are snarled due to the shutdown, and that’s going to impact how quickly lawmakers can get to Washington. More than 50% of flights on Sunday were delayed or canceled today, according to Flightly, which tracks commercial aviation.

If you live within driving distance of D.C., we suggest you hit the road. If you’re going to fly, get on a plane today.

Obamacare scramble. With a future Senate Obamacare vote in the mix, House members who want to extend enhanced Obamacare subsidies are jumping in to suggest a middle ground.

Here’s news: Rep. Brad Schneider (D-Ill.), the New Democrat Coalition chair and Ways and Means Committee member, is introducing a bill to extend the ACA credits for four years for enrollees making less than 10 times the federal poverty level.

That would cap benefits at a $320,000 income level for a four-person household in 2025. California Reps. Kevin Kiley, a Republican, and Sam Liccardo, a Democrat, are also out with a bipartisan bill today calling for a two-year extension with reforms and pay-fors.

– Jake Sherman and Laura Weiss

DON’T CALL IT A COMEBACK

Ex-members eye comeback bids in 2026

Congress is still in the midst of the longest government shutdown. And many lawmakers are retiring early, frustrated by the bitter partisan gridlock, endless fundraising demands, intense media coverage and fears of political violence.

Yet at least a dozen former members and senators are trying to make a comeback in 2026, including some who have been gone for decades.

“That’s been the No. 1 question I get,” said former Rep. Melissa Bean (D-Ill.), who’s running to return to Congress 16 years after she lost reelection. “‘Are you sure you want to come back to this dysfunctional town?’ And I said, ‘Well, it’s better than throwing my shoe at the television, right?’ So it’s hard to stay on the sidelines.”

It’s not uncommon for members to run again a cycle or two after they lose reelection while their political operations are still in place. A couple of the 2026 hopefuls fall in that category: former Rep. Cori Bush (D-Mo.) and former Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio).

But this cycle, the interest in returning to the Capitol has gone far beyond recent departees.

Redistricting fallout. The mid-decade redistricting push has certainly contributed to this trend. Former Democratic Rep. Ben McAdams (Utah) is expected to launch a run this week for a House seat after a Utah court mandated a new congressional map for the state.

In Virginia, former Democratic Rep. Elaine Luria is likely to run for her old House seat, which could get more favorable if Democrats’ redistricting gambit succeeds. McAdams lost in 2020, and Luria lost in 2022.

In California, the creation of a Latino-opportunity seat in Los Angeles County opened up a comeback bid for former Democratic Rep. Hilda Solis. Solis left Congress in 2009 to serve as then-President Barack Obama’s Labor secretary.

House members leaving deep blue districts to run statewide have also created opportunities. Bean is looking to return to her old district now that the incumbent, Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-Ill.), is running for Senate. Former Democratic Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr. (Ill.) is running for Rep. Robin Kelly’s (D-Ill.) seat, which is open because she’s also running for Senate. And former Rep. Tom Malinowski (D-N.J.) is eyeing a run for Rep. Mikie Sherrill’s (D-N.J.) blue seat rather than the swing seat he lost in 2022.

In Maryland, former Rep. David Trone (D-Md.) does not seem to be waiting for his district to become open again. Trone is considering primarying his successor, Democratic Rep. April McClain Delaney, in the 6th District.

Returning Republicans. The trend is far less pronounced on the GOP side — a disparity that makes sense since the midterm is usually punishing to the party in power.

But in New Hampshire, two former senators — Sen. Scott Brown (R-Mass.) and John Sununu (R-N.H.) — are facing off for an open Senate seat. Brown left the chamber in 2013, while Sununu departed in 2009.

The person looking to return after the longest time out of office is former Rep. Van Hilleary (R-Tenn.). He retired in 2003 after failing to beat Phil Bredesen in the gubernatorial race. Hilleary is now running to replace his former boss, Rep. John Rose (R-Tenn.), who is leaving his district to run for governor. Hilleary served as Rose’s chief of staff.

– Ally Mutnick

DEFENSE

Syria sanctions in the balance

Congress is nearing an inflection point as President Donald Trump prepares to meet with Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa Monday — and pressure builds to repeal sanctions against the country.

At issue is whether to fully repeal the Caesar Act sanctions, a move favored by key blocs within both parties.

“Giving the existing government in Syria the opportunity to prove itself as being seeking peace is a positive step,” Sen. Mike Rounds (R-S.D.) said.

The Trump administration has backed the repeal effort through the annual defense policy bill, with U.S. Special Envoy to Syria Tom Barrack and Secretary of State Marco Rubio among those making calls to lawmakers, according to multiple Hill sources.

A key holdout in the permanent repeal, according to people familiar with the matter, is House Foreign Affairs Committee Chair Brian Mast (R-Fla.). Mast’s office didn’t respond to a request for comment.

Trump said last week he’d temporarily waive sanctions “to give them a fighting shot, and I think [al-Sharaa’s] doing a very good job so far” but that “it’s a tough neighborhood and he’s a tough guy.” Permanently waiving the sanctions would require congressional action.

Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.), a key foreign policy voice, said he favors peace “that can be pursued through specific and identifiable and enforceable conditions.”

Last week, the United Nations Security Council voted to remove al-Sharaa from a terrorism sanctions list just days ahead of his visit with Trump in a resolution championed by the United States.

“We must repeal Caesar sanctions so the Syrian people have a real chance at recovery after decades of dictatorship,” Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.), the top Foreign Relations Democrat, told Punchbowl News in a statement.

— Anthony Adragna and Briana Reilly

… AND THERE’S MORE

Texas Senate. Texans for a Conservative Majority, a super PAC backing GOP Sen. John Cornyn’s reelection bid, is out with two ads hitting both Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-Texas) and Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton.

One spot knocks Hunt for missing 280 votes and calls him “Mr. No Show.” A second spot runs through Paxton’s myriad of ethical issues.

Endorsement news: EMILYs List is endorsing Rep. Lizzie Fletcher (D-Texas) for reelection in Texas’ 7th District.

— Jake Sherman and Max Cohen

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