The Archive

IN THIS EDITION

Trump is bending Washington to his will

Trump taps Stefanik for UN post, setting off scramble for No. 4 slot in leadership

The House Dem spin job and the leadership implications

Inside the Latta and Guthrie bids to chair Energy and Commerce

THE TOP

Trump is bending Washington to his will

Happy Monday morning. And happy Veterans Day. This is our only edition of the day. We’ll be back with our regular schedule tomorrow.

President-elect Donald Trump will tap Rep. Elise Stefanik of New York — the House Republican Conference chair — as U.S. ambassador to the United Nations. More on that below.

Trump gravity: Trump doesn’t get sworn in for another 10 weeks, but he’s already changing things in Washington.

Trump wants Republicans to block confirmation of any of President Joe Biden’s remaining judicial nominees — this won’t happen — and has ideas about how the Senate should handle some presidential appointments. Trump warned Russian President Vladimir Putin against expanding the war in Ukraine. Even high-profile political opponents like Sen.-elect Adam Schiff (D-Calif.) are acknowledging that they have to work with Trump to get anything done.

Speculation over whether Trump is going to endorse in the Senate GOP leadership race — and efforts to persuade him to do so — is already having a big impact on the contest.

In fact, Trump is testing whether Senate Republicans will defend the chamber’s independence as an institution or bow toward his victory and his agenda.

State of the race: Florida GOP Sen. Rick Scott is seen as the underdog compared to his rivals, Senate Minority Whip John Thune and Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas).

But Scott is making a play for Trump’s endorsement, and prominent conservative figures including Tucker Carlson and Charlie Kirk are backing him. Even mega-billionaire and Trump confidante Elon Musk is supporting Scott. Musk — who was with Trump on Sunday — ran his own poll that Scott won.

Conservatives argue that Thune and Cornyn are “RINOs” who are too close to Minority Leader Mitch McConnell. For their part, the two senior Republicans argue they have the experience and know-how to turn Trump’s agenda into reality.

Trump had stayed out of the race publicly to this point, though he’s been bringing it up in conversations with GOP senators in the days since his election victory.

There was furious speculation this weekend among GOP senators, top aides and Trump allies over whether that was about to change. Is Trump inching closer to a potential endorsement that could completely upend everything? Does Trump want someone who’s not currently in the race to jump in?

Out of the blue: Trump on Sunday demanded that the next majority leader commit to allowing recess appointments. Scott quickly fell in line, pledging to do “whatever it takes” to get Trump’s nominees confirmed. Thune and Cornyn also signaled they’d make confirmation of Trump’s nominees a top priority, including looking at recess appointments.

Some important context here: Senate leaders of both parties have worked to prevent recess appointments through “pro forma” Senate sessions that occur every few days during a scheduled recess. The House does something similar. This goes back to the Obama era.

But recall that in 2020, McConnell and then-Speaker Nancy Pelosi opposed Trump’s suggestion that he’d adjourn Congress in order to make recess appointments, bypassing the Senate confirmation process. Whether Trump could do this is constitutionally questionable. Adjourning takes a vote in the House and the Senate.

Yet this is “Mandate Trump,” who helped Republicans win the Senate majority. Trump won’t go along with things he was forced to accept in his first term. And his allies argue he shouldn’t have to, even if that means bypassing the Senate confirmation process. This will be a big challenge for Senate Republicans.

Scott’s play: Scott isn’t publicly encouraging this show of support from Trump’s base. Scott also isn’t explicitly attacking Thune or Cornyn. His allies are doing that for him.

It’s getting tense, however, and a number of Republican senators and aides are privately complaining about what they see as an effort by outside forces to influence an internal decision for the GOP Conference.

Remember that this is a secret ballot election, so there’s nothing forcing senators to go public with their picks. And it’s getting so that no GOP senator has an incentive to come out for Thune or Cornyn. Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.), Cornyn’s only public backer, got pilloried by conservative media figures after we scooped that the Missouri Republican is backing Cornyn.

We’ve also heard from several top GOP aides and senators whose offices are being flooded with phone calls from constituents pressuring them to back Scott.

Of the three candidates, Scott has the most public endorsements from GOP senators so far, although none are particularly surprising. The question is whether the pressure campaign will translate into a Trump endorsement for Scott and, in turn, enough votes to be elected leader.

‘They’re trying to bully us’: We spoke with a GOP senator who sees this as an effort to intimidate Republicans and isolate Thune and Cornyn. This senator won’t vote for Scott but hasn’t decided whether to support Thune or Cornyn.

“I really don’t much care what Tucker Carlson thinks. They’re trying to bully us. That’s not how these elections work,” said the GOP senator, who was granted anonymity to give a candid assessment. “President Trump won decisively, and he deserves to have someone with actual experience who can get his agenda enacted.”

The senator is referring to Thune and Cornyn’s extensive records of passing legislation — including the Trump tax cuts — which far exceeds what Scott has done.

— John Bresnahan and Andrew Desiderio

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THE HOUSE MAJORITY

Trump taps Stefanik for UN post, setting off scramble for No. 4 slot in leadership

Rep. Elise Stefanik of New York — the No. 4 House Republican — has accepted an offer from President-elect Donald Trump to serve as the U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, according to sources.

CNN’s Kaitlan Collins was the first to report Trump’s offer to Stefanik. We reported Stefanik’s interest in the post on Oct. 28.

With the House GOP majority only likely to be 221 to 222 seats, this could be an issue for Republicans, depending on the timing. But Stefanik’s seat is extraordinarily red. Stefanik won by 24 points last week. Still, there will be a vacancy here when Trump makes the appointment and Stefanik is confirmed.

The 40-year-old Stefanik was first elected to the House in 2014. She ascended to the chairmanship of the House Republican Conference in 2021, knocking off then Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.), who was sharply critical of Trump.

Stefanik is known for her role on the House Education and the Workforce Committee, where she was the key figure in hearings that resulted in the resignation of the president of Harvard, her alma mater.

But the New York Republican also has significant experience in the national security and intelligence realm. Stefanik has served for years on the Armed Services Committee. And in 2017, she got a seat on the Intelligence Committee.

With a likely 53-seat Senate Republican majority, Stefanik will almost certainly be confirmed quickly.

Stefanik’s appointment to be Trump’s envoy to the United Nations sets off a massive scramble for one of the top leadership positions in the House. Leadership elections are scheduled for this week. We’ll have to see if Speaker Mike Johnson pushes the conference chair race until later to give candidates more time to run.

Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-Iowa) is one name we’ve heard frequently for this job. But Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) is 91 and if Hinson wants his seat, she may not gain much from being in the House GOP leadership.

Rep. Byron Donalds (R-Fla.) is also seen as a top contender. Donalds, though, has been in the mix as a potential gubernatorial candidate back home. And House Republican Conference rules mandate that any member of leadership gunning for another office must step down from their position to run.

Rep. Stephanie Bice (R-Okla.), a popular member of the leadership, could also be in the mix here and would be a strong contender. Rep. Blake Moore (R-Utah) is the vice chair of the House Republican Conference and will almost certainly take a look at this job. Rep. Kat Cammack (R-Fla.) will be in the mix too.

Whether Republicans admit it publicly or not, they will probably want to ensure that Stefanik’s replacement is a woman, or else the top of the party will be all white men.

– Jake Sherman

THE MINORITY … STILL

The House Dem spin job and the leadership implications

House Democrats felt confident they would flip the House in the lead-up to the election. Multiple Democrats told us they’d benefit from the historic incompetence of the House GOP majority and a voter base ready to reject Republicans as too extreme.

That didn’t happen. Republicans are on track to keep the same-sized majority in the next Congress, although this time with President-elect Donald Trump to keep them in line.

However, instead of anger, we’re hearing optimistic House Democrats make the case to us that they had a good cycle. Now, they didn’t have a good cycle, although that is more the fault of the top of the ticket than anything House Democrats did.

If the results continue to play out as expected, House Democrats will be in the minority once again. Freshman Rep. Yadira Caraveo (D-Colo.) conceded Sunday night she’d lost her bid for a second term, another blow to Democratic chances for victory. Rep. David Schweikert (R-Ariz.), a vulnerable GOP incumbent, also won reelection.

But let’s unpack the top Democratic arguments:

— House Democrats overperformed despite a weak showing from Vice President Kamala Harris.

Close enough doesn’t cut it in elections. Yet it’s important to note that in tough swing state races, Democratic candidates outran the top of the ticket. It still wasn’t enough.

Per an analysis flagged to us by Democrats, Frontline Democrats overperformed Harris’ vote margin in their districts by 5%. This is a bigger gap than in 2020 when Frontliners outperformed President Joe Biden by 2%.

In 2024, Red-to-Blue challengers overperformed Vice President Kamala Harris by 1%, while Red-to-Blue candidates underperformed Biden by 4% four years ago.

In both their losing campaigns, incumbent Democratic Reps. Matt Cartwright (Pa.) and Susan Wild (Pa.) ran ahead of Harris and Sen. Bob Casey (D-Pa.) in their districts. Rebecca Cooke and Janelle Stelson also ran ahead of Harris in their unsuccessful challenges to Reps. Derrick Van Orden (R-Wis.) and Scott Perry (R-Pa.).

Harris was decisively defeated as the nation moved right. Despite these negative currents, Democratic House candidates put up a fight.

Of course, GOP House candidates like Rep. Don Bacon (R-Neb.) also outran Trump in a number of key seats.

— A potential GOP majority may be forced to turn to Democrats to keep the lights on.

Assuming Republicans win the House, their best-case vote total is roughly in line with the current margins for the 118th Congress. In that span, Democrats needed to bail out Republicans on every single must-pass bill, such as government funding and debt limit hikes. The House GOP Conference will act differently with Trump in the White House. But as long as the filibuster stays in place or legislation isn’t considered under reconciliation, then compromise will be needed at some point, which is when House Democrats come in.

— House Democrats did better than the last time Trump won.

In 2016, when Trump beat Hillary Clinton, Democrats controlled just 194 seats. This year they’re on track to net around 213-217 seats. This is an interesting data point, but strikes us as comparing apples to oranges in some senses. 2016 and 2024 were quite different election cycles.

Again, we’re not endorsing these takes. In fact, some of them seem like stretches.

The implications of this: No lawmaker that we’ve spoken to in the House Democratic Caucus has their knives out for the New Three leadership team: Hakeem Jeffries, Katherine Clark and Pete Aguilar. The reason why? House Democrats see some rays of sunlight in their defeat.

By and large, the caucus is publicly pleased with Democratic fundraising and how aggressively the three leaders campaigned across the country. Three GOP incumbents were toppled in Jeffries’ home state of New York, for instance.

Democrats will hold their leadership elections on Nov. 19. No drama or challenges are expected.

— Max Cohen

TECH REPORT

Inside the Latta and Guthrie bids to chair Energy and Commerce

The race for chair of the House Energy and Commerce Committee is heating up. Here’s how the contest, with all its implications for President-elect Donald Trump’s agenda, is looking.

Reps. Bob Latta (R-Ohio) and Brett Guthrie (R-Ky.) will take their pitches to be chair to the Steering Committee in the weeks after the upcoming leadership elections. We’ll likely know who has the gavel around early December.

The House GOP is generally pleased with the choice: Two long-tenured, well-liked lawmakers with good fundraising chops are vying for the top spot.

In quiet conversations with colleagues, both Latta and Guthrie are touting that they’re focused on connecting more Americans to broadband, keeping China out of U.S. telecom networks, leading on artificial intelligence and expanding energy production from all sources. Many of those points mesh nicely with what tech wants out of the next Congress.

There are differences between Latta and Guthrie that they’re already emphasizing, of course.

Latta, who’s been in office since 2007, has the benefit of seniority and experience on all six subcommittees. Latta’s interests include manufacturing and autonomous vehicles, and he’s been chairing the subcommittee on communications and technology this Congress.

Guthrie, who only came to the Hill two years after Latta, leads the fundraising race this year by leaps and bounds. Guthrie has a reputation as a glad-hander with good relationships downtown. His subcommittee emphasis is health, though he’s pitched his colleagues on privacy and protecting kids too.

House GOP leadership, for what it’s worth, tends to view Guthrie as having the inside track, partially thanks to that fundraising. Both offices are projecting confidence, though neither is sharing their whip list — as expected. And the contours of the race could shift around a bit depending on who gets named to the Steering Committee.

Rep. Richard Hudson (R-N.C.) was seen as a dark horse candidate. But he’s now running for another term as NRCC chair.

— Ben Brody

THE CAMPAIGN

Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R-Tenn.), who just won reelection handily, has a new spot up in honor of Veterans Day. The ad is running statewide in Tennessee

– Jake Sherman

MOMENTS

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