The Archive

IN THIS EDITION

The 3 things you need to watch as Congress returns

Rick Scott on Senate GOP leader race and the online barrage

Inside the jockeying for the No. 4 House GOP leadership slot

The Vault: 3 things we’re watching in economic policy

What’s Congress up to on their first day back

THE TOP

The 3 things you need to watch as Congress returns

Happy Tuesday morning.

Welcome back, Congress! Now that the election is finally over (almost), the House and the Senate will kick off a frantic lame-duck session even as President-elect Donald Trump rushes to staff up his new administration.

Government funding, the NDAA and the farm bill are all on the docket for the period between now and Jan. 2. There are GOP leadership elections this week — we have two items below — and an array of Republicans under consideration for roles in the Trump administration.

GOP congressional leaders also are scrambling to get ready for Trump’s first 100 days in office. By April 30, Republicans want to renew the Trump tax cuts, and pass a swath of new energy policies and border security provisions.

In short, this will be a furious period of legislating, planning and political maneuvering for Capitol Hill and Trump. Let’s get into it.

1) Government funding. The current government funding resolution expires on Dec. 20. Speaker Mike Johnson, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, President Joe Biden and Trump have to make a decision quickly on how they want to handle this.

Johnson is under pressure from hardline conservatives to extend government funding until early 2025 rather than cut a deal with Democrats. You’ll recall Johnson tried to do this and failed in September. Johnson needs these conservatives for the speaker vote at the start of the next Congress. While Trump’s backing will keep hardliners on Johnson’s side, the speaker still has to tread carefully.

Yet delaying passage of the FY2025 spending bills threatens to upset the timetable for Trump’s agenda. House Majority Leader Steve Scalise wants to pass a reconciliation bill within 100 days, so having a funding deadline during that period is a problem.

Remember — Trump went through this already in 2017. Congress didn’t finish the annual spending bills until May that year.

Of course, Biden and Senate Democrats are still in charge. They’ll want to lock in some spending priorities for next year before they lose power — meaning cut a deal on the spending bills rather than a continuing resolution.

Johnson has been talking to Trump frequently since last week’s election, and the two will meet Wednesday in Washington (along with the new Senate GOP leader.) Ultimately, this decision will be up to Trump. We’ll see how far Johnson can sway him.

2) The House margin. House Republicans are the clear favorites to retain control of the House. It’s not AP-call official yet, but Democrats were dealt three crushing blows over the weekend.

First, freshman Rep. Yadira Caraveo (D-Colo.) formally conceded to Republican challenger Gabe Evans. Then, Reps. David Schweikert (R-Ariz.) and Juan Ciscomani (R-Ariz.) dispensed with their Democratic challengers. House Republicans only need to win one more seat of the remaining seven uncalled toss-up races to retain the majority.

Republicans currently lead in Alaska’s at-large seat, California’s 13th District, California’s 22nd District, California’s 41st District and California’s 45th District. So it’s exceedingly likely the GOP will pull this out.

We expect Republicans to control between 221 to 223 seats. This is basically the same as what they have currently.

It wasn’t all bad news for Democrats. George Whitesides beat Rep. Mike Garcia (R-Calif.).

3) Who else will Trump tap? Trump has announced his intention to nominate Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.) as ambassador to the U.N. and Rep. Mike Waltz (R-Fla.) to be national security adviser.

This leaves Johnson with a barebones House majority early in the next Congress. Everything will have to proceed perfectly, which isn’t what House Republicans do.

Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) is going to be Trump’s pick for secretary of State. Senate Republicans will lose a vote, but Florida GOP Gov. Ron DeSantis will move quickly to fill the vacancy.

Remember, majorities are precarious no matter what. Lawmakers get sick and die. They get indicted. They retire suddenly. There are always unforeseen events during every Congress.

4) Leadership elections and the new Congress. We don’t anticipate a serious challenge to anyone currently in House GOP leadership. Although there is some concern in House GOP circles that NRCC Chair Richard Hudson will get a challenger. We don’t see this as a real threat.

The House GOP leadership elections kick off Wednesday with the candidate forum from 9 a.m. to 11 a.m. Leadership elections will run from 2:30 p.m. to 7 p.m.

Also keep an eye on the races for House committee chairs. Energy and Commerce and Financial Services are both very competitive. Separately, we hear that Rep. Virginia Foxx (R-N.C.) is in the mix to chair the House Rules Committee, a post appointed by the speaker.

The House GOP leadership is also working on their rules package, which will be ratified internally on Friday morning. Top Republicans are skeptical they’ll be able to change the motion to vacate provision, which currently allows one member of the House to trigger a vote to oust the speaker. This is a big defeat for Johnson, who punted on changing the MTV last Congress only to find himself with a similarly slim majority this time around.

Similarly, it may be difficult for the moderates in the Republican Main Street Caucus and the GOP governing group to put in place their preferred policy that Republicans get punished for voting against procedural motions on the floor.

– Jake Sherman, John Bresnahan and Max Cohen

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THE SENATE

Rick Scott on Senate GOP leader race and the online barrage

To say that Senate Republicans are on edge about what the next 24 hours could look like is an understatement.

The GOP leadership elections are just a day away, and there are some major lingering questions that could impact the outcome.

The first and most obvious is whether one of the candidates — Senate Minority Whip John Thune, Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) and Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.) — will win an endorsement from President-elect Donald Trump. After Trump injected himself into the debate Sunday with a litmus test for the next leader, there’s no predicting what he could do or say that could upend the contest. There will be a candidate forum tonight.

We’ve written extensively on the race. We spoke to Scott on Monday and we wanted to point out a few important dynamics.

Scott responds to online blitz: The online pro-Scott pressure campaign has gotten ugly, with an army of prominent MAGA personalities and Trump confidants launching increasingly aggressive diatribes against Thune and Cornyn, even attacking family members. Some have been threatening individual senators or pushing inaccurate or misleading information about who’s supporting which candidate. GOP senators and aides are incensed about it.

Scott isn’t explicitly encouraging or condoning the social media blitz. But the Florida Republican isn’t distancing himself from it, either. In an interview, Scott told us he “appreciate[s] the fact that our voters give us their feedback.”

“These people are excited Trump won, and they just want to make sure whoever’s going to be the Senate leader is going to be all on board with Trump’s agenda,” Scott said. “They’re comfortable that I’m that person.”

For his part, Scott has declined multiple opportunities to criticize Cornyn and Thune, focusing instead on his pitch to senators — a wholesale revamp of the Senate GOP Conference.

Here’s Scott:

Scott also reiterated his support for the filibuster. The leadership candidates’ deference to Trump’s demand for recess appointments has reignited questions about how Republicans would handle a Trump demand to eliminate the filibuster.

Second-ballot strategy: Most senators and aides we’ve spoken with believe Scott has a relatively low ceiling when it comes to the vote count. If Trump endorses Scott, that could change.

But, for now, preparations are underway for the possibility that Scott is the lowest vote-getter, which would send the race to a second ballot between Thune and Cornyn. The question then becomes who Scott’s backers will gravitate toward. This will decide who will become the GOP leader.

Vance as gatekeeper: Vice President-elect JD Vance can vote in the leadership election if he chooses. We’re told Vance and his team have yet to decide on whether the Ohio Republican will attend the vote.

But Vance has been in close touch with his soon-to-be former colleagues, who view Vance as a gatekeeper of sorts for Trump’s ultimate decision on whether to endorse in the race. As a sitting senator, Vance could have a lot of sway with his fellow GOP senators — and Trump.

— Andrew Desiderio

THE HOUSE

Inside the jockeying for the No. 4 House GOP leadership slot

The race to succeed Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.) as House GOP conference chair is shaping up to be a competitive contest between a field of mostly women candidates.

Stefanik officially withdrew from consideration for the No. 4 slot in leadership Monday after she was tapped by President-elect Donald Trump to serve as his ambassador to the United Nations. Candidates have until noon today to enter the race, with leadership elections scheduled for Wednesday.

Several members moved quickly to throw their hats into the ring. GOP Reps. Kat Cammack (Fla.), Lisa McClain (Mich.) and Erin Houchin (Ind.) have all formally declared they’re running. Rep. Blake Moore (R-Utah) is also exploring a bid and began making calls Monday.

The GOP conference chair is in charge of party messaging and organizing conference meetings. And with the top three House Republicans currently all white men, there’s some desire inside the GOP to elect another woman to succeed Stefanik.

Cammack got a boost when House Freedom Caucus member Rep. Byron Donalds (R-Fla.) decided against running and instead threw his support behind Cammack, as we first reported. Donalds challenged Stefanik for conference chair last cycle and got 74 votes. His support for Cammack could help solidify her standing among conservatives.

But we’re told the House Freedom Caucus is still trying to recruit one of its own to run for the position. Cammack is a member of the conservative Republican Study Committee, while McClain, Houchin and Moore all belong to the more center-right Republican Main Street Caucus.

Moore and McClain are both currently in leadership, serving as vice chair and conference secretary, respectively. So if either of them moves up, it will have a cascading effect. Rep. Mark Alford (R-Mo.) has told people he intends to run for the secretary job.

Who they are.

Cammack.

– District profile: R+9

– Terms in Congress: Two

– 2024 fundraising: $2.7 million this cycle between her re-elect and leadership PAC.

– Pitch: Cammack is positioning herself as the conservative pick and promising to help execute an America First agenda. Cammack also led the NRCC’s recruitment efforts this cycle. Here’s Cammack’s letter, which outlines her goals. That includes a task force on Hispanic outreach.

Houchin.

– District profile: R+16

– Terms in Congress: One

– 2024 fundraising: Houchin has three fundraising vehicles. She raised $1.58 million for her own reelection. Houchin also raised $188,231 to her leadership PAC and $478,270 to her victory committee.

– Pitch: Houchin is touting her past experience owning a public relations firm and vowing to ensure that the GOP message is “conservative and clear,” according to a letter announcing her candidacy. The Indiana Republican also promises to incorporate non-traditional media into the party’s communication strategy.

McClain

– District profile: R+18

– Terms in Congress: Two

– 2024 fundraising: Roughly $1.8 million between her reelect and leadership PAC.

– Pitch: McClain is leaning into her Midwest roots and promising to be a team player while working closely with Trump. “I hail from a blue state, one of the most critical battlegrounds for the presidency and our House majority,” McClain said in her letter to colleagues. “I understand what it takes to win tough races.”

Moore

– District profile: R+12

– Terms in Congress: Two

– 2024 fundraising: $2.8 million this cycle between his reelect and leadership PAC.

– Pitch: Moore isn’t officially in the race yet, but his case is likely to center on the fact that he’s already part of the leadership team and is also a member of the powerful House Ways and Means Committee, which will play a critical role in next year’s GOP tax package.

— Jake Sherman and Melanie Zanona

The Vault: 3 things we’re watching in economic policy

Congress returns today after a six-week election hiatus with a ton of economic policy questions looming.

How the likely Republican trifecta next year will transform the worlds of tax and financial services policy is coming into focus.

We’re still not convinced the lame duck will be productive for tax, trade and finserv efforts that have been in the mix, as we covered in the Sunday Vault. But there’s at least going to be a whole lot going on that’ll set up dynamics in the next Congress. Here’s what we’re watching.

Tax world: As we first reported back in the summer, Republicans have been optimistically preparing for a big reconciliation push for months. The first order of business now will be figuring out what they’ve got to work with.

Reconciliation rules — which will allow the GOP to dodge a Senate filibuster — require lawmakers to agree on instructions for various committees they want to be involved in crafting the legislation, dictating their allowed budget impacts. The House GOP in particular is one to watch for how much of a deficit hit members are willing to swallow and add to the Trump tax cuts that expire next year.

We’re expecting a whole lot of reconciliation and tax meetings during the lame duck as the GOP readies to try to deliver their tax bill in the early months of the new Trump administration.

Crypto victory lap: The digital asset sector is riding high on the 2024 election. The industry has seen near-universal success with crypto-backed candidates this month, and a second Trump administration ensures the industry will see significant regulatory support over the next four years.

In the lame duck, though, it’s hard for us to imagine a world where this Congress could advance major crypto legislation with President Joe Biden leaving office and President-elect Donald Trump on his way in. Biden has been broadly hostile to crypto, and Trump has made his friendliness clear. It’s not obvious to us why the industry would push for a win before Inauguration Day.

But we could see some groundwork get laid for action on crypto when Republicans have control.

Gavel(s) watch: The race to be the next top Republican on the House Financial Services Committee will kick off in earnest this week. Reps. French Hill (R-Ark.), Andy Barr (R-Ky.), Bill Huizenga (R-Mich.) and Frank Lucas (R-Okla.) have all declared their interest in the job.

The Senate will also be worth watching. The Senate’s Banking Committee is set to be chaired by Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.). The South Carolina Republican is interested in capital markets and housing policy, but we believe much of the committee’s work will be dictated by the Trump administration’s early priorities.

With Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) defeated, Democratic leadership of the Senate Banking Committee will almost certainly fall to Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.). Sens. Jack Reed (D-R.I.) and Mark Warner (D-Va.) are more senior than Warren but aren’t expected to challenge her for the job.

– Brendan Pedersen and Laura Weiss

📆

What’s Congress up to on their first day back

Tuesday: The New Democrat Coalition, which is set to have over 107 members in the next Congress, is hosting its new member orientation. The center-left group is adding 21 incoming members to its ranks. Five of them — Reps.-elect John Mannion (D-N.Y.), Laura Gillen (D-N.Y.), Josh Riley (D-N.Y.), Janelle Bynum (D-Ore.) and Shomari Figures (D-Ala.) — flipped GOP-held seats.

The Helsinki Commission will get a briefing on Moldova’s future. The House Rules Committee will hold a hearing to prepare several energy bills for floor consideration. House GOP leaders will have a press conference on the election results.

– Jake Sherman

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