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November 28, 2023
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PRESENTED BY
THE TOP
Happy Tuesday morning.
An Israeli major general made a quiet trip to the Capitol Monday night to reassure Democratic senators who have been critical of Israel’s military campaign against Hamas in Gaza.
The meeting, which took place in the LBJ Room just off the Senate floor, included other senior Israeli Defense Forces officials and more than a dozen Senate Democrats. It came as progressives across the United States are speaking out angrily against Israel’s operations in Gaza, which have resulted in thousands of Palestinian casualties.
Sen. Tammy Duckworth (D-Ill.) organized the meeting in conjunction with the Israeli embassy, we’re told. The conversation focused on the operational aspects and objectives of Israel’s war against Hamas. Senators told us they had candid exchanges with the IDF officials, but some also indicated they still have deep concerns about Israel’s ultimate goals in Gaza.
“We just want to be assured that they are abiding by American values as they try to dismantle Hamas. We all conveyed that collectively and clearly,” Sen. Brian Schatz (D-Hawaii) told us following the meeting. “I do believe they heard us. But obviously, we have a long way to go.”
Israel launched its military effort in Gaza after Hamas militants brutally murdered more than 1,200 people in Israel, including a number of Americans, on Oct. 7. Hamas took more than 200 people hostage, some of whom have been released in recent days in exchange for Palestinians imprisoned in Israel. A temporary ceasefire was extended by two days on Monday.
Senate Democrats are expected to take up the issue of whether to add conditions on U.S. aid to Israel during their weekly caucus lunch today.
“I think it’s important that [this conversation] happens. It’s not just me,” said Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), who wrote a New York Times op-ed calling for such restrictions. “I do not support simply giving $14 billion to Israel without any conditions at all. So I think it’s an issue that needs to be debated.”
Progressives are strongly in favor of imposing such conditions, noting that Congress routinely does this through the foreign military financing program. Schatz said it’s “reasonable” to require some conditions, adding that Israel shouldn’t be “an exception to the general practice that the Congress has in describing how they want and expect the money to be spent.”
But top Democrats simply don’t think this is necessary, pointing to President Joe Biden’s public and private efforts to pressure Israel to minimize civilian casualties in Gaza.
“I don’t think there’s a need for conditionality,” Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chair Ben Cardin (D-Md.) said Monday. “The way the president has handled his conversations with the Israelis has produced tangible results, including the amount of humanitarian assistance and the strategy on the military side.”
The Israel aid package approved by the House is hung up in the Senate due to Speaker Mike Johnson’s insistence on offsetting this funding with IRS budget cuts. Senate Democrats and the White House reject this approach.
News on the border talks: The bipartisan Senate group negotiating border and immigration policy changes spoke with Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas over the weekend, according to multiple sources, as senators inch closer to a potential deal that would clear the way for aid for both Ukraine and Israel.
The Sunday phone call with Mayorkas took place as senators are hoping to wrap up the talks in the next few days. This would give them time to draft legislative language and — more importantly — sell it to their colleagues.
“We have to come to an agreement this week in order to get this on the floor before the recess,” Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.), the lead Democratic negotiator, told us. “We’re not very practiced at writing complicated immigration law here because we haven’t passed something of substance in 40 years. So we need to get this done soon.”
Senate Democrats have already agreed to several policy changes on the asylum side, according to sources familiar with the talks. The bipartisan group is already exchanging legislative text on some provisions.
What appears to be off the table, however, is a GOP demand to restore a Trump-era policy that barred migrants from seeking asylum if they had already passed through another country.
Johnson said Monday that he’s already in touch with senators about the border talks, and he expressed a willingness to help Ukraine fend off Russia’s invasion by approving more U.S. military aid.
But House GOP conservatives, many of whom vehemently oppose any new Ukraine funding, are certain to argue that the Senate’s bipartisan border deal doesn’t go far enough.
Senate Minority Whip John Thune indicated it’ll be incumbent upon Senate Republicans to push back against that narrative.
“If we can move a bill out of here that gets a good, strong Republican vote, then I think it helps significantly in trying to get it across the finish line in the House,” Thune said.
— Andrew Desiderio and John Bresnahan
INSIDE THE HOUSE GOP
Will Santos resign or be expelled?
The House Republican leadership is asking itself a very important question — will Rep. George Santos (R-N.Y.) resign on his own volition? Or will the freshman lawmaker be the first member expelled by the House in more than two decades?
The only way the House would avoid voting on an expulsion resolution is if Santos resigns.
The most likely scenario is that a member will go to the floor today and ask for Rep. Michael Guest’s (R-Miss.) resolution — which calls for expelling Santos — to be considered as privileged. That would start a two-day clock on the vote.
Several other members have said they would file their own expulsion resolutions against Santos if needed, including Rep. Robert Garcia (D-Calif.), who tried to expel Santos earlier this year.
Santos has said he will hold a news conference Thursday on the Capitol steps. No one we spoke to in the leadership knows what he will say.
Santos said in an X Spaces event Friday night that he was “not going to resign” because doing so is akin to copping to the allegations in the House Ethics Committee’s damning report detailing his misdeeds.
But Santos hasn’t been a reliable narrator on anything in his life, meaning no one is quite sure what he’ll do here.
The question about what Santos will do was heightened Monday morning when Speaker Mike Johnson said during a news conference in Sarasota, Fla., that he spoke to Santos “at length” over the Thanksgiving break “about his options.” Johnson said that “it remains to be seen” whether the House will vote to expel Santos.
Santos, for his part, said he told Johnson that he would “be standing for the expulsion vote.”
“Expel me and set the precedent so we can see who the judge, jury and executioners in Congress are,” Santos said. “The American people deserve to know!”
One other thing to note: House Majority Leader Steve Scalise and Republican Conference Chair Elise Stefanik have been awfully quiet on what they think of Santos and whether they support his expulsion.
— Jake Sherman
RETIREMENT WATCH
The House Democrats who may not run in 2024
It’s no secret that more lawmakers are eyeing the exits than at any time in recent memory. After the recent raft of congressional retirements, here are some Democratic members to watch over the next couple of weeks as they decide their future plans.
Important dates to keep in mind: Illinois’ election filing deadline is Dec. 4, California’s is Dec. 8, followed by Texas on Dec. 11, North Carolina on Dec. 15 and Ohio on Dec. 20. In January, Kentucky, Mississippi and West Virginia all have filing deadlines.
We’re going to focus on Democrats today and Republicans tomorrow.
Wiley Nickel (D-N.C.): Proposed new North Carolina maps would turn Nickel’s swing seat into a solidly Republican district. When we asked his office whether the freshman lawmaker would seek reelection, we were referred to a statement from last month where Nickel said he’d announce his decision “once the courts have spoken.”
Jim Clyburn (D-S.C.): Clyburn’s spokesperson Kennedy Anderson told us “no decisions have yet been made,” on whether the 83-year-old Clyburn will run for a 17th term. Clyburn, who serves in leadership as the assistant Democratic leader, stepped down from his role as whip after the party lost control of the House last cycle.
Dutch Ruppersberger (D-Md.): The 77-year-old Ruppersberger still hasn’t made a decision on whether he will seek a 12th term in office, according to spokesperson Jaime Lennon.
John Larson (D-Conn.): Larson was pointedly asked during a local news interview earlier this year if he was committing to running in 2024. Larson wouldn’t give a straight answer, but said he was “leaning strongly toward running.” Larson’s office didn’t respond to a request for an update on his decision process.
David Scott (D-Ga.): The top Democrat on the House Agriculture Committee is physically ailing and hasn’t been as present in farm bill negotiations compared to past years.
Steny Hoyer (D-Md.): The former House majority leader recently told local radio host Kojo Nnamdi he’s “not giving up” when asked about his political future. But Hoyer, 84, has also been in the House since 1981 and is no longer in Democratic leadership (although he serves as head of the Regional Leadership Council).
One House member who’s not retiring? Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D-Ohio). “Congresswoman Kaptur will seek reelection, and will file her petitions in December as required,” Kaptur spokesperson Ben Kamens told us.
— Max Cohen
NDAA SEASON
NDAA could come together as soon as this week
There’s increasing optimism on Capitol Hill that senators and members could unveil the final version of the annual defense authorization bill by the end of this week.
The formal NDAA conference will be held on Wednesday with the traditional “passing of the gavel.” And while there are still some outstanding issues at the leadership level, we’ve heard the final bill could be signed off on as early as Thursday.
“There are a number of things that need to be fixed,” Sen. Roger Wicker (R-Miss.), the top Republican on the Senate Armed Services Committee, told us. “But things are moving.”
To be sure, some thorny issues — such as abortion language, diversity initiatives and border policy — still remain outstanding. But sources briefed on the state of negotiations say progress has been made on these hot-button topics.
There aren’t expected to be any changes in the NDAA to the Pentagon’s policy of reimbursing servicemembers for abortion-related travel, we’re told. This issue, of course, has been the catalyst for Sen. Tommy Tuberville’s (R-Ala.) months-long blockade of senior military promotions. The Senate could soon vote to end the blockade with GOP support.
Tuberville all but acknowledged on Monday that one of his final potential off-ramps may already be exhausted.
Tuberville wanted the NDAA conferees to be able to vote on an amendment included in the House version of the bill that would rescind the abortion policy. Tuberville said it’s becoming clear to him that there will be no such vote. This was likely from the outset, but Tuberville is effectively removing it from his list of possible off-ramps, making it more likely that a bipartisan group of senators will roll him in the coming weeks.
The DEI-related language, meanwhile, is expected to hew closer to the Senate-passed NDAA. And there are likely to be border-related provisions in the final package, we’re told.
— Max Cohen and Andrew Desiderio
THE CAMPAIGN
Johnson getting used to the big-money trail
News: Speaker Mike Johnson raised $1.4 million at Rep. Vern Buchanan’s (R-Fla.) home in Longboat Key, Fla., Monday night. It was Johnson’s first big-time fundraiser.
In attendance: Florida GOP Reps. Byron Donalds, Kat Cammack, Laurel Lee, Maria Salazar, Anna Paulina Luna, Neal Dunn and Greg Steube, GOP Reps. Ryan Zinke (Mont.), Adrian Smith (Neb.), Dan Newhouse (Wash.) and Ronny Jackson (Texas).
Johnson to N.Y.: Johnson is heading to New York this weekend for the NRCC’s donor retreat. But he’s also shaking the New York money tree while he’s there.
Blackstone’s Steve Schwarzman and Wayne Berman are hosting Johnson for a fundraiser benefiting Grow the Majority NY, a joint-fundraising committee we scooped in the Midday edition Monday. Schwarzman is the CEO of Blackstone while Berman runs the D.C. operation and is a major GOP player. Here’s the invite.
Johnson will also be in Bronxville, N.Y., on Sunday to raise cash for Rep. Mike Lawler (R-N.Y.). The fundraiser is being hosted by Maria and Tony Sayegh. Tony Sayegh was a top Treasury Department official in the Trump administration.
This is significant because there have been doubts that Johnson would be able to raise money in the Northeast for vulnerable lawmakers. His brand of conservatism may be popular in Shreveport, La., but detractors thought it would be less so in New York.
Here’s the Lawler invite:
— Jake Sherman
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Presented by Apollo Global Management
Learn how Apollo is rethinking retirement income to last the modern lifespan. Think It New.