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November 29, 2023
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PRESENTED BY
THE TOP
Happy Wednesday morning.
News: There are two important moments that you need to be aware of this week.
First, Speaker Mike Johnson is meeting today with Senate Republicans during their Steering lunch in the Capitol.
Also: Johnson is meeting privately with Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell.
Here’s why these are critical. Johnson is at the fulcrum of a host of big decisions that need to be made in December. Yes, there’s no government shutdown deadline until mid-January.
But Johnson and the rest of the Big Four — McConnell, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries — have a hefty pile of vital legislation to pass. And they need to chart a path forward very quickly. If not, some or all of these bills could stall out.
2024 funding: We are 51 days until the federal government enters into a partial shutdown, with a full shutdown just two weeks later. Not only have the House and Senate not begun negotiations on the particulars of the 12 annual spending bills, congressional leaders haven’t even decided on a topline number yet. Nothing can happen until that’s done.
Aides to the Big Four have begun discussions over a topline number. The challenge here is that the White House, Senate Republicans, House Democrats and Senate Democrats are going to insist on the 2024 topline spending number from the Fiscal Responsibility Act — $1.586 trillion. Perhaps even a little higher.
But House Republicans have been conditioned by their own leadership to believe they’ll be able to convince the rest of Washington to cut spending significantly. However, they lack the political leverage to make this happen, especially after the last few months of dysfunction.
In a sign of just how far Hill leaders are from any deal, the topic of topline spending didn’t come up in Johnson’s leadership meeting late Tuesday afternoon. And neither chamber is moving appropriations bills this week.
New wrinkles on border security-Ukraine deal: Senate Republicans’ demands for border policy changes in exchange for Ukraine and Israel funding are starting to put real strains on Democrats — potentially complicating prospects for a bipartisan deal.
In a statement exclusively shared with us, nearly a dozen Democratic senators — led by Sen. Alex Padilla (D-Calif.) and co-signed by Majority Whip Dick Durbin — are sounding the alarm over the direction of the talks. In particular, they’re taking aim at provisions that would make it harder for migrants to seek asylum, which would be the cornerstone of any agreement with Republicans.
“We are concerned about reports of harmful changes to our asylum system that will potentially deny lifesaving humanitarian protection for vulnerable people, including children, and fail to deliver any meaningful improvement to the situation at the border,” the statement reads in part.
Republican leaders are insisting the final agreement must address more than just asylum policies and should clamp down on the parole system too. That would further irk progressives, who have supported humanitarian parole expansions for migrants fleeing violence and persecution back home. Pro-immigration groups are warning Democrats not to blindly accept the GOP proposals.
But Senate Republicans have leverage here, and a healthy number of Democrats are generally OK with border policy changes. Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.), one of the negotiators, said any deal needs to have the support of at least half of Senate Republicans — and that means parole restrictions are a must.
“Asylum [reform] is not enough to get the number that we need, of Republicans, to send something to the House that has a high probability of being received well and passed,” Tillis warned. “The only thing we do have is 41 members who are willing to deny the motion to proceed on the supplemental funding. We need to maintain that.”
FAA: A potential deal is in the works over pilot-training requirements, a critical issue that has stalled FAA reauthorization for months. This legislation needs to pass by Dec. 31.
Senate Commerce Committee Chair Maria Cantwell (D-Wash.) told us Tuesday that she’s reviewing a potential compromise proposal. Cantwell and her aides cautioned that there’s no agreement yet, so this situation remains fluid. There’s been no decision on whether a committee vote will happen and if the FAA bill needs to be attached to another larger piece of legislation.
NDAA: The defense authorization bill will take a huge step forward this morning with the formal “passing of the gavel,” which tees up the release of legislative text later this week. The Senate could begin to process the bill as soon as next week, depending on whether there’s enough progress on the supplemental.
But already there are major disputes over some financial services provisions that could get dropped from the final bill. More on that below.
Another potential problem: Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) is vowing to throw up roadblocks for the NDAA if it doesn’t include compensation for nuclear contamination victims.
FISA: House Judiciary Committee Chair Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) told us a panel markup on his FISA reform proposal is scheduled for Dec. 6. Jordan met with Johnson on Monday and plans to continue meeting with him this week.
Senior leadership aides tell us they believe there will be a clean short-term FISA extension into the beginning of next year.
Johnson World News: Eric Schmitz is joining the speaker’s team as director of coalitions. Schmitz is a policy adviser for House Majority Leader Steve Scalise. Schmitz will be in charge of Johnson’s relationship with K Street and outside groups.
— Andrew Desiderio, Jake Sherman and John Bresnahan
Next week! Punchbowl News founder Anna Palmer and senior congressional reporter Andrew Desiderio will discuss the news of the day with Senate Minority Whip John Thune on Wednesday, Dec. 6, at 9 a.m. ET. Thune will also share his thoughts on tech policy and the latest on the 2024 presidential and congressional campaign trails. RSVP here!
McHenry’s hardball NDAA tactics rattle GOP hawks
Rep. Patrick McHenry’s (R-N.C.) attempt to cram crypto reform legislation into the annual defense authorization bill is ruffling feathers across the Capitol as lawmakers race to finalize legislative text this week for the must-pass measure.
As we wrote Tuesday night, McHenry – the House Financial Services Committee chair – has been threatening for weeks to block significant bipartisan banking policy tucked in the Senate-passed NDAA from being included in a final package.
The North Carolina Republican wants crypto legislation from the House Financial Services Committee, which he chairs, to be included in the final NDAA. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer flagged the hangup as a concern during Democrats’ lunch on Tuesday.
That means popular Senate legislation is on the line, including a major bipartisan package aimed at cracking down on the production of fentanyl.
Another potential victim of McHenry’s crypto push is Sen. John Cornyn’s (R-Texas) bill restricting certain U.S. investments in countries like China, which passed the Senate with a big bipartisan margin.
That bill, as well as the fentanyl legislation, are now at risk of being left out of the final defense authorization since Speaker Mike Johnson — who has veto power during the NDAA conference process — has thus far sided with McHenry, according to multiple sources close to the negotiations.
Even fellow committee chairs are airing some misgivings over McHenry’s hardball approach. House Foreign Affairs Committee Chair Michael McCaul (R-Texas) is a co-sponsor of the fentanyl package. And while McCaul said his committee was working “in good faith” with the Financial Services panel, he had this to say about McHenry Tuesday night:
McCaul is also a supporter of Cornyn’s approach to inbound-outbound investment reform. McCaul said lawmakers would try to get the reforms done through regular order if it gets left out of the NDAA.
Rep. Blaine Luetkemeyer (R-Mo.) said he wasn’t familiar with McHenry’s threats to strip Senate financial policy out of the NDAA, but he acknowledged disagreements with the Senate over the right approach to inbound-outbound investment reform.
“We don’t like the Cornyn bill,” Luetkemeyer told us. Rep. Andy Barr (R-Ky.) “has a much better bill here,” he added.
Zoom out for a second: GOP national-security hawks — particularly in the Senate — fear Johnson is abandoning key policy goals for conservatives by siding with McHenry.
Groups such as the Heritage Foundation and the America First Policy Institute called on congressional leaders just two weeks ago to ensure that the outbound-investment restrictions remain in the final NDAA package.
But these aren’t just Republican priorities. The outbound-investment provisions were added to the Senate’s NDAA bill by a 91-6 vote. The fentanyl bill had a massive list of co-sponsors, including the bipartisan leaders of the Senate Banking and Armed Services committees.
It’s worth noting that Johnson could still give his consent for these provisions to be added to the final NDAA bill. Anger from the right could ultimately prompt him to reverse course.
— Brendan Pedersen and Andrew Desiderio
THE MONEY GAME
The NRCC is taking the GOP show to the Big Apple
Speaker Mike Johnson and the House Republican leadership are heading to New York this weekend for the NRCC’s winter fundraiser.
The NRCC’s “Bright Lights and Broadway” fundraiser has become a yearly affair, where big donors can hang with House Republicans in New York.
Here’s the schedule:
Friday: At 5 p.m., House Republicans will host a “218 Reception.” This is for big donors to the NRCC.
The NRCC is then hosting a “Top Investors Holiday Reception” on the 51st floor of 30 Rockefeller Plaza. This event is restricted to individual donors who give more than $10,000 or PAC donors who give more than $30,000.
Saturday: The action then moves to Bloomingdale’s. For $85, participants will get a $100 gift card to the store to shop between 7:45 a.m. and 10:30 a.m.
At 4 p.m., you can enjoy tea at American Girl Place for $50.75 per person.
Sunday: At 9 a.m., there will be a political briefing at the Lotte New York Palace Hotel.
There’s a lot going on on the sidelines of the NRCC event too. Blackstone’s Wayne Berman and Steve Schwarzman are hosting a fundraiser for New York Republicans that will feature Johnson. Johnson is heading to Bronxville, N.Y., for a private reception for Rep. Mike Lawler (R-N.Y.). In addition, the NRCC gig coincides with the Pennsylvania Society’s annual event in New York — a big political weekend for the Keystone State.
— Jake Sherman
RETIREMENT WATCH
The House Republicans who may head for the exits
Amid a growing wave of retirements, we wanted to give you a sense of who else might be heading for the exits. Tuesday, we focused on Democrats. Now it’s the Republicans’ turn.
In recent weeks, GOP Reps. Debbie Lesko (Ariz.), Kay Granger (Texas), Ken Buck (Colo.), Bill Johnson (Ohio), Brad Wenstrup (Ohio), George Santos (N.Y.) and Michael Burgess (Texas) all announced they’re not running for reelection.
Other GOP members to watch:
Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.): California’s filing deadline is under two weeks away and all eyes are on the former speaker. McCarthy denied rumors in October that he was stepping down early from the House. But we’ll be closely watching to see if McCarthy ends up filing for reelection before Dec. 8.
Rep. Sam Graves (R-Mo.): Graves, the current chair of the Transportation and Infrastructure Committee, may face a vigorous challenge to his position after this Congress. Graves has been in Congress since 2001 and might be looking for a new challenge.
Rep. Doug Lamborn (R-Colo.): Lamborn survived a primary scare last cycle when he received less than 50% of the vote but triumphed in a four-person race. We didn’t hear back from Lamborn’s campaign team on whether he was running in 2024.
Who isn’t going anywhere: Rep. Mike Simpson (R-Idaho) is running for reelection, spokesperson Lexi Hamel told us.
Rep. Joe Wilson (R-S.C.) is running for reelection and plans to do so as long as he’s in good health. Wilson, 76, has served in the House since 2001.
Rep. Frank Lucas (R-Okla.) is also running despite being seriously injured by a wayward bull on his farm. Lucas, chair of the Science Committee, was out for nearly two months. “How can I leave when there is so much work to be done? Yes, I have every intention of running for re-election,” Lucas said in a statement.
Rep. Ken Calvert (R-Calif.) is seeking another term. “Congressman Calvert completed the candidate filing process last week, has raised more than $3 million this year, and is looking forward to his re-election next year,” spokesperson Jason Gagnon told us.
House Majority Leader Steve Scalise is running for reelection, per spokesperson Lauren Fine.
The dean of the House, Rep. Hal Rogers (R-Ky.), told a local Kentucky reporter this summer he plans on running in 2024 “unless something happens.”
Rep. Chris Smith (R-N.J.) is “absolutely” running for reelection, per spokesperson Mike Finan.
Rogers and Smith will both be seeking their 23rd term.
Updates from Tuesday: Both Reps. David Scott (D-Ga.) and John Larson’s (D-Conn.) teams got in touch and told us their members plan to run for reelection.
Note: Out of the top 20 longest-serving candidates in the House, 16 are Democrats.
— Max Cohen and Mica Soellner
…AND THERE’S MORE
News: Defend the Vote PAC, a progressive outside group, is endorsing Rep. Andy Kim’s (D-N.J.) Senate bid.
“At a time when the Senate is desperate for more civility and integrity, Defend the Vote is thrilled to endorse Andy Kim,” Brian Lemek, the group’s executive director, said. “He’ll bring the kind of change we need.”
Kim is running against incumbent Sen. Bob Menendez (D-N.J.) in the Democratic primary. Menendez, of course, was indicted on charges of acting as an unregistered foreign agent for the government of Egypt.
A number of New Jersey Democrats — including several of Kim’s House colleagues — have instead endorsed Tammy Murphy in the Democratic primary.
— Max Cohen
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