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January 15, 2024
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THE INTERVIEW
Ernst on Iowa, the Senate map and Haley
As focus turns to the Hawkeye State for caucus night, we caught up with Sen. Joni Ernst (R-Iowa) — the highest-ranking Republican woman in the Senate — for her views on the presidential race.
Ernst hasn’t publicly picked a side. But that’s not to say she doesn’t have thoughts on the Republican presidential field.
Praise for Haley: We asked Ernst about the significance of having female representation on the GOP presidential ticket in 2024.
Ernst took the opportunity to praise former South Carolina Republican Gov. Nikki Haley.
“I don’t want to get into the gender wars, but I do think someone with Nikki Haley’s foreign policy and executive experience — having been a governor — she’s an incredible candidate and brings a lot of value,” Ernst said.
Haley would be “a great selection” either as president or vice president, Ernst added.
In many polls, Haley has passed Florida GOP Gov. Ron DeSantis as the top alternative to former President Donald Trump. Trump, however, still leads by wide margins in every state except New Hampshire.
What Ernst is looking for: We wondered what qualities Ernst would like in a presidential candidate. Besides the usual GOP gripes about “Bidenomics” and the southern border crisis, her response included a subtle dig at Trump’s isolationist worldview.
“We need someone that is smart when it comes to foreign policy and the way we interact with international partners,” Ernst said. “I believe in ‘America First,’ but not ‘America Alone.’ We need to leverage our friendships to make sure the world is a stable place.”
During his presidency, Trump frequently irked America’s traditional allies and sided with its adversaries. More recently, he has energized the anti-Ukraine funding wing of the Republican Party, arguing the United States shouldn’t continue assisting that nation’s fight against the Russian invasion. Ernst is among a group of hawkish Senate Republicans who strongly support Ukraine.
Senate map: Ernst identified Democratic Sens. Jon Tester (Mont.), Bob Casey (Pa.) and Sherrod Brown (Ohio) as the most vulnerable incumbents.
She added that West Virginia will be a solid Republican pick up since Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) decided to retire at the end of his term.
“Steve Daines has done a fabulous job,” Ernst said of the NRSC chair. “The recruitment of candidates has gone well and we have solid candidates with great life experiences.”
Caucus day weather: It’s going to be a historically cold day in Iowa tonight, a quirk that Ernst says will throw a late twist into the race.
“It may affect voter turnout, but I don’t know if it will break one way or another,” Ernst said.
— Max Cohen
HAWKEYE STATE WATCH
Iowa’s delegation stays on the sidelines
Iowa’s all-GOP congressional delegation is staying on the sidelines ahead of the nation’s first nominating contest, declining to endorse runaway favorite Donald Trump.
The Iowa Republicans told us their unified non-endorsing front — which we first reported on last month — abided by a statewide tradition to avoid tipping the scale one way or the other.
Notably, when we pressed Iowa Republicans on whether they would back the former president if he sweeps the caucuses, no one would commit.
“Let’s put it this way: Whenever there’s a [Republican] nominee, I’m not going to be for Biden. I’m gonna be for the nominee,” the dean of the Iowa delegation, Sen. Chuck Grassley, told us.
The delegation is clearly trying to keep its distance from Trump without antagonizing him. Remember, Trump famously tracks his endorsement count intently. Walking this delicate tightrope is a balancing act that’s plagued the GOP in recent years.
Staying neutral: Sen. Joni Ernst (R-Iowa) said members of the Hawkeye State delegation have “all talked about” remaining on the sidelines.
“We’re all maintaining our neutrality,” Ernst said. “I haven’t decided whether to endorse after the caucuses or not. It is possible.”
The lack of support for Trump — and reluctance to show an inclination toward another candidate — reflects the composition of the Iowa congressional delegation. While all six members are conservatives, none could be described as MAGA firebrands.
In addition to Ernst and Grassley, Iowa’s all-Republican Hill delegation includes Reps. Ashley Hinson, Mariannette Miller-Meeks, Randy Feenstra and Zach Nunn. Notably, there’s very little seniority here in the House. Nunn is a freshman while the other three members joined the House in 2021.
Feenstra said he wasn’t endorsing any candidate because he didn’t want to “disenfranchise” anybody.
Nunn demurred too, saying his focus on caucus day will be on his own family.
“My biggest concern is keeping three preschool-aged kids engaged in a long caucus night,” Nunn said. “Deploy the coloring books!”
Iowa’s Republican Gov. Kim Reynolds is bucking the no-endorsement trend and has gone all out to support Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis over Trump. Reynolds is not up for reelection until 2026.
The stakes are of course higher for the congressional delegation, where going against Trump would be considered political malpractice in most GOP primaries.
— Max Cohen and Mica Soellner
TALLY POWER MATRIX
— Max Cohen
PRESENTED BY JOHNSON & JOHNSON
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CANDIDATE QUALITY
Senate Republicans seek to block far-right candidates
Senate Republicans are hoping 2024 is the year they finally shake off their perennial “candidate-quality” problem to retake the majority.
This has especially been a problem for Republicans in the Donald Trump era.
In the 2020 and 2022 elections, several GOP candidates fell short of their Democratic opponents in states they should have won — often because the primary produced a far-right nominee backed by Trump. That’s in part how Democrats gained their slim Senate majorities.
Many GOP candidates this cycle are benefitting from an NRSC that’s more aggressively wading into primaries to box out the more extreme candidates. And this time, Republicans are looking to enlist Trump’s help in that push.
It’s why NRSC Chair Steve Daines (R-Mont.) endorsed Trump early on in the presidential race. The campaign arm is also coordinating more closely with the former president to ensure he doesn’t back unwinnable candidates.
Bernie Moreno (Ohio):
The Cleveland-area businessman is locked in a three-way primary with Secretary of State Frank LaRose and state Sen. Matt Dolan to take on Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown.
Moreno has jumped to the front of the pack after securing Trump’s endorsement last month. Sen. J.D. Vance (R-Ohio) — a close ally of the former president — described Trump’s backing as “very helpful,” particularly in his state where the former president remains popular.
“Most endorsements will move votes one or two points in a given direction,” Vance told us. “Trump’s endorsement can actually win an election.”
But remember, Trump’s endorsements also hurt Senate Republicans in the last few cycles, leading to several close calls and candidates who lost in the general elections.
Sam Brown (Nevada):
Brown is a top GOP recruit in a state that’s trending more Republican. Brown has an inspiring background; he was badly injured in a roadside bomb explosion while serving in Afghanistan in 2008. He later received a Purple Heart.
What’s more, Brown has much of the Senate GOP apparatus behind him, including Daines and Senate Minority Whip John Thune. Both Daines and Thune have attended and headlined fundraisers for Brown.
Brown is challenging Democratic Sen. Jacky Rosen.
Kari Lake (Arizona):
Republicans are coalescing around Lake, a staunch Trump ally who lost her state’s gubernatorial race in 2022. Lake has a history of embracing conspiracy theories and election denialism, including about her own unsuccessful race.
This will be a major test for Republicans and the NRSC, as Lake fits the bill for previous Trump-endorsed GOP candidates who sailed through a primary only to lose in the general election.
Lake and Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) will face off for Sen. Kyrsten Sinema’s (I-Ariz.) seat. It’s unclear whether Sinema will run for reelection as an independent. Recent polls have shown Sinema trailing far behind Lake and Gallego in a three-way contest.
Tim Sheehy (Montana):
The NRSC has also been heavily involved in Montana, rallying around Sheehy as fears grow that Trump-aligned Rep. Matt Rosendale (R-Mont.) could enter the race.
Republican senators have openly derided Rosendale, but he has kept the door open to launching a campaign. Rosendale lost to Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.) in 2018, and it’s safe to say that Tester would love a rematch this year.
David McCormick (Pennsylvania):
This is McCormick’s second Senate campaign in two consecutive cycles. In 2022, he lost in the GOP primary to Trump-endorsed Mehmet Oz, who went on to lose the general election to Sen. John Fetterman (D-Pa.).
McCormick doesn’t face any serious GOP challenger, but Sen. Bob Casey (D-Pa.) will be difficult to defeat in November — even with McCormick’s staggering fundraising totals as of late. McCormick’s campaign recently announced that it raised $5.4 million last quarter.
— Andrew Desiderio
THE AIRWAVES
Democrats spend big on abortion ads
It’s no secret that Democrats see abortion rights as a winning message on the campaign trail in 2024. The party is spending big with ads on the airwaves as Republicans struggle with how to frame the issue.
Democrats spent nearly five times as much money on abortion ads than Republicans in the past year, according to an AdImpact analysis of television ad spending.
The stats:
| → | From January 2023 to January 2024, Democrats spent a total of $75 million on abortion ads. Over the same period, Republicans spent roughly $17 million on ads focusing on abortion. |
| → | For Democrats, that translated to 246 unique ads and nearly 145,000 airings. Republicans ran 70 unique ads focused on abortion and 38,000 total airings. |
The disparity is a dramatic illustration of the parties’ differing agendas. In some respect, it isn’t surprising that Democrats want to talk more about abortion in ads than Republicans. Following the reversal of Roe v. Wade in 2022, abortion rights has consistently polled as one of the main issues on which voters favor Democrats over Republicans.
Case in point: Democrats won major victories in red states in 2023 while campaigning on abortion rights. Prime among them was Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear’s reelection triumph in Kentucky. A defining ad of the campaign featured a rape survivor who accused GOP opponent Daniel Cameron of wanting victims like her to have babies conceived out of incest.
Multiple states enshrined access to abortion in their constitutions through ballot measures in 2023, most notably in Ohio. Some of the Republican messaging didn’t even mention abortion in the run-up to the vote. In Ohio, the lead GOP group opposing the abortion rights amendment to the state constitution focused on drag shows rather than abortion.
Looking ahead: Some Hill Republicans have been trying to distance themselves from state policies advocating for strict abortion bans, while also standing firm that they’re against abortion as a whole. See our story on NRCC Chair Richard Hudson from last week for more on this.
The abortion ad spending gap is an indicator of the uncertainty among Republicans on how to frame their messaging. The threat of losing reproductive rights has energized women and young voters. Even some Republicans — including former President Donald Trump — have urged the party to fix its messaging on the issue, acknowledging that it’s been a winning cause for Democrats.
While Trump has boasted about his role in nixing federal abortion protections, he as recently as last week called for some “concessions” on the issue if the GOP is to win elections.
— Max Cohen and Mica Soellner
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By transforming bill tracking and floor action with expert analysis from the Punchbowl News team, The Portal delivers concise, curated insights that cut through the noise, helping policy leaders win. Request a demo today.