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December 12, 2023
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PRESENTED BY
THE TOP
Happy Tuesday morning.
When he walks into the historic Mansfield Room this morning, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will be thrust into a brutal political dynamic over which he has alarmingly little control.
For starters, Zelensky isn’t going to get Senate Republicans to back off their demands for immigration policy changes in exchange for more money for Ukraine.
The lead Senate GOP negotiator is already saying a deal can’t get done before the end of the year and is alleging the White House didn’t talk to him about the issue. The blame game over the looming failure on Ukraine is already in full swing across Washington.
Congress seems very likely to leave for the holidays without passing any new Ukraine aid. That means Zelensky won’t have any clear commitment from his nation’s most important ally as he heads back to Europe for even more talks on his country’s future.
This is what Zelensky faces today as he makes the case that Ukraine is at a life-or-death moment. It’s almost as if he’s being set up to fail.
Democrats maintain that Republicans’ immigration demands are unrealistic and complain GOP leaders are holding a bipartisan foreign policy priority hostage. Some believe Zelensky shouldn’t even need to come back to Washington after congressional leaders promised during his last visit in September.
“I don’t think it’s President Biden who is setting up Zelensky to fail. I think it is colleagues of mine who are insisting on driving too hard a deal that is more than the freight can bear,” Sen. Chris Coons (D-Del.), Biden’s closest Senate ally, told us Monday night.
Senate Republicans indicated that they don’t even really want to hear from Zelensky, but rather a different president — Joe Biden. There isn’t going to be a “light bulb” moment for Republicans until Biden shows a willingness to move in their direction, according to GOP senators.
“Our members are pretty dug in. The message coming out of Zelensky’s meeting ought to be ‘We want to help, but we need the Democrats to get serious about the border,’” Senate Minority Whip John Thune said. “I mean, it’s really that simple right now.”
Zelensky is also meeting today with Speaker Mike Johnson, arguably the biggest obstacle to Ukraine funding. Johnson remains adamant that Democrats and the White House must agree to some or all of the harsh border-security provisions outlined in H.R. 2, the Secure the Border Act. That legislation got zero Democratic votes when approved by the House back in May.
“I understand the necessity of ensuring that Vladimir Putin does not prevail in Ukraine and march through Europe,” Johnson said at a Wall Street Journal event on Monday:
Much of what we’re hearing from Hill Republicans is a reflection of the mood inside their party, which is turning sharply against additional Ukraine aid nearly two years after the Russian invasion. Those Republicans who continue to support billions of dollars in new Ukraine funding now feel like they can’t justify that without an overhaul of border and immigration policies.
“If you’re talking about anything [Zelensky] could say to say, ‘Hey, pay attention to us but not your own country’ — No,” Sen. James Lankford (R-Okla.), the lead GOP negotiator in the border talks, told us. “Because we’ve got to be able to deal with all of these things together. That’s how this package started at the very beginning.”
Indeed, it was the White House that initially looped the border security issues into its original supplemental funding request back in August. Then Biden upped the request to $13 billion for border security in October.
This was intended to serve as a sweetener for Republicans skeptical of more Ukraine funding. Instead, Republicans saw the White House’s ask and then pushed their own ideas about how to address the migrant crisis at the U.S.-Mexico border.
For their part, progressives and pro-immigration advocates are nervous that Zelensky’s visit could prompt Biden and Democrats to panic and cave to GOP demands. We saw a hint of that when Sen. Alex Padilla (D-Calif.) and Rep. Nanette Barragán (D-Calif.) released a blistering statement Monday warning Biden it would be “unconscionable” to give in.
Instead, Democrats hope Zelensky can “convince” Republicans that they should act this month no matter what, Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.), the lead Democratic negotiator, told us.
But let’s be real. When even Sen. Mitt Romney (R-Utah) — a staunch Ukraine supporter who usually shuns hardball tactics — says it’s on Biden to move in Republicans’ direction, that’s a clear signal that Zelensky’s visit will be an exercise in futility.
“Why won’t Democrats get the job done? Getting funding for Ukraine is so critical, they ought to do whatever it takes to get the border [fixed],” Romney said.
— Andrew Desiderio and John Bresnahan
THE MONEY GAME
NRCC is back on track with a $9 million November haul
Speaker Mike Johnson may not be able to get aid for Israel or Ukraine enacted or pass a FISA reform bill. But the Louisiana Republican has been a far better fundraiser than expected.
The NRCC raised $9 million last month, which the committee said is a record for an off-year November. In 2021, the NRCC raised $7.2 million — the next biggest haul. This is a big uptick from the NRCC’s October haul of $5 million.
House Republicans have $41.4 million cash on hand, the NRCC said. As of last month, the DCCC had $47 million on hand. Democrats have consistently outpaced House Republicans this cycle on the fundraising side.
Rank-and-file House Republicans transferred $1 million more in November than they did in November 2021.
“House Republicans stepped up to the plate and helped the Committee hit a fundraising grand slam – led by Speaker Johnson and our incredible leadership team,” NRCC Chair Richard Hudson said in a statement.
— Jake Sherman and John Bresnahan
Republicans pump brakes on impeachment inevitability
The general consensus on Capitol Hill is that once Republicans vote to open an impeachment inquiry into President Joe Biden this week, it’s extremely likely the House will end up voting to impeach the president.
The reasoning: It’s hard to imagine in this partisan era that House Republicans open such a probe and then conclude that Biden did nothing wrong.
House GOP lawmakers, for their part, largely pushed back on that rationale Monday, saying it wasn’t accurate to assume Biden’s impeachment is inevitable.
“I’m sure there’s some people that would just as soon skip this part, but I don’t know that that’s a foregone conclusion,” Rep. Dan Newhouse (R-Wash.) said.
Notably, Newhouse is one of only two Republicans left in the House who voted to impeach former President Donald Trump for his conduct during the Jan. 6 insurrection. Newhouse added he supports the Biden inquiry being opened “so we can get the questions answered and make an intelligent decision on impeachment.”
“If we don’t have the receipts, that should constrain what the House does” on impeachment, Rep. Dusty Johnson (R-S.D.) said.
And Rep. Mike Garcia (R-Calif.) said that Republicans shouldn’t “short-circuit due process.” Garcia said the GOP should only move forward with impeachment if the evidence and testimony warrant it.
House Republicans are set to vote as soon as Wednesday to formally authorize the Biden impeachment inquiry. GOP leadership decided to go down this route because of alleged obstruction from the White House, a charge the Biden administration firmly denies.
“I think everybody just needs to relax,” Rep. Bill Johnson (R-Ohio) told us. “We’re not voting on impeachment. We’re voting on the impeachment inquiry to look at the evidence.”
These comments run at odds with public statements from House Oversight Committee Chair James Comer (R-Ky.), who told Newsmax earlier this year that he “would vote to impeach [Biden] right now.”
But the prospect of breaking the alleged “stonewalling” tactics of the White House has become a common defense for Republicans voting to authorize the impeachment inquiry.
“When the president refuses to provide documents like he did last week, and says it’s because you don’t have a formal inquiry, that forces our hand,” Rep. Don Bacon (R-Neb.), a vulnerable incumbent in a Democratic-leaning district, told us.
It remains to be seen if voters in districts that supported Biden in 2020 will punish their Republican representatives for their impeachment stances. Democrats are already planning to hammer the endangered GOP incumbents for focusing on going after Biden over kitchen-table issues.
And with what could be down to a two-seat majority early next year, it’s unclear if House GOP leaders will even have the votes to impeach Biden.
“I can defend an inquiry. I can’t defend impeachment right now,” Bacon said.
To date, Republicans haven’t found conclusive evidence of wrongdoing by Biden as it relates to his family’s business dealings.
— Max Cohen
DEPT. OF INEFFICIENCY
Johnson yanks dueling FISA bills in another embarrassing misstep
Let’s start with the news: The House won’t vote this week on competing bills to reform FISA surveillance authority.
The backstory of how this happened is yet another terrific example of the predominant criticism of Mike Johnson’s speakership: He is either unwilling, unable or disinterested in making big decisions.
Johnson flip-flopped for a few weeks when it came to extending FISA, especially the controversial Section 702 provision.
Johnson first said he would extend FISA authority as part of the NDAA — but only until February. Then Johnson said he wouldn’t. And then finally, the speaker agreed to include a FISA extension in the NDAA package that will run until April.
As a consolation prize, of sorts, to those who want to reform FISA, Johnson said he would put House Intelligence Committee Chair Mike Turner (R-Ohio) and Judiciary Committee Chair Jim Jordan’s (R-Ohio) competing bills on the floor simultaneously. Turner’s bill was supported by national security hawks, many members of the leadership and those who oversee intelligence agencies.
Jordan’s bill, meanwhile, was bipartisan and got support from Rep. Jerry Nadler (N.Y.), the committee’s top Democrat, and some key progressives.
The idea was to put both bills up for a vote and see which one got more support. The winner would be sent onto the Senate.
But Johnson declined to say which approach he preferred, instead allowing an open turf war to explode inside the House Republican Conference. That intra-conference clash came to a head Monday afternoon.
In a closed GOP meeting, Turner said Jordan’s bill eliminated provisions that the government uses to go after child pornography. Rep. Warren Davidson (R-Ohio), a close Jordan ally, said Turner was “f–king lying.”
The back and forth over the competing FISA bills continued for more than an hour.
At one point, former Speaker Kevin McCarthy, who is leaving Congress at the end of the month, went to the microphone and said that everyone needed to take a deep breath. McCarthy noted that he and Turner both have experience in the upside of FISA intelligence gathering.
But McCarthy warned against bringing both Johnson and Turner’s bills to the floor. He advised House GOP lawmakers to take the time afforded by the four-month FISA extension in the NDAA and come to a compromise by April.
And that’s what House Republicans are doing.
One other point: Consider just how many deadlines there are in the first few months of 2024.
January: Tranche one of government funding.
February: Tranche two of government funding.
March: FAA reauthorization.
April: FISA reauthorization.
— Jake Sherman
CONSERVATIVE CORNER
Good elected as next HFC leader
The House Freedom Caucus elected Rep. Bob Good (R-Va.) to lead the hardline conservative group during a closed-door meeting Monday night.
Good, who was running unopposed, was nominated by the HFC board to succeed the current chair, Rep. Scott Perry (R-Pa.).
Good had no comment on his election.
“Bob will do a good job,” Rep. Ralph Norman (R-S.C.) told us following the HFC vote. “He will fight for the issues.”
But not every HFC member was thrilled with Good’s pick. Rep. Warren Davidson (R-Ohio) said he wouldn’t run for a leadership spot with Good as Freedom Caucus chair, according to a letter he sent to the group. The letter was first reported by Axios.
“I ask that we consider how to best increase our influence while preserving our power to move policy in the right direction,” Davidson wrote. “I strongly feel that Bob Good as Chairman will impair that objective.”
Good was one of the eight House Republicans who voted to oust former Speaker Kevin McCarthy.
Perry reflected on his time as chair, saying he hopes Good will “lead better.” Perry touched on the challenges of negotiating with leadership as HFC chair.
“I think for most people, including the past chairs — Jordan, Meadows, Biggs — you kind of grow into the position,” Perry said. “You’re representing the group, the brand and so that you have to be open.”
Good’s term will start in January.
— Mica Soellner
THE CAMPAIGN
Reps. Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-Ill.), Haley Stevens (D-Mich.), Ted Lieu (D-Calif.), Joe Neguse (D-Colo.) and Scott Peters (D-Calif.) hosted a reception for Democratic Frontliners Monday night. The group brought in $200,000 total. Click here to see the invitation.
The New Democrat Action Fund is endorsing former Rep. Mondaire Jones (D-N.Y.), Derek Tran and Rudy Salas in their respective bids to flip GOP seats blue.
— Heather Caygle
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