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December 15, 2022
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PRESENTED BY
THE TOP
Happy Thursday morning.
There are 19 days until Jan. 3, when the House will vote on whether Kevin McCarthy will be the next speaker.
We have some news this morning related to McCarthy’s quest for 218.
No. 1: House Republicans plan to reinstate the Holman Rule next year. The Holman Rule allows Congress to zero out the salaries of government officials in spending bills (here’s a CRS report on the procedure.) We told you about this possibility back in August, and it now looks like it will happen. Of course, the Democratic-controlled Senate will have to approve all spending bills too, and President Joe Biden will have to sign them. So this House GOP effort isn’t going to work.
But this illustrates the politics of the House Republican Conference. House Republicans will want to cut bureaucratic salaries – even if the Senate and president are bound to block them.
No. 2: House Republicans will eliminate the PAYGO rule, which requires legislation that increases spending or cuts revenues to be offset by spending cuts and/or revenue increases. Instead, House Republicans will rely on CutGo, which requires mandatory spending increases to be offset by other mandatory spending decreases.
The House has often waived the PAYGO rule. But House GOP conservatives have made clear they are not interested in waiving rules, broadly speaking. So you should expect CutGo will play a big role in legislating.
No. 3: McCarthy committed Wednesday – once again – to supporting a rule mandating that bills be released 72 hours before any floor vote. This could have a big impact on the legislative calendar in Washington. There’s a chance the House will be required to stay in session over weekends if this rule is in place and there’s legislation that needs to pass. Remember: In a four-seat majority, every single member is critical and can force the institution into a rough spot.
All of these moves come as conservatives press McCarthy to open up the institution to more input from the rank-and-file lawmakers.
The small group of conservatives pushing to restore the motion to vacate – the process by which any one member can force a vote to remove the speaker – is getting most of the attention at the moment. But there’s much more that they are trying to win from the House GOP leadership.
They want germane amendments to be made in order by the House Rules Committee, reversing a trend of fewer and fewer amendment votes. They want the floor process to be loosened up. Just as in 2010, they want legislation to address one single topic only. And as we reported back in August, they want a Church Committee-style process to probe the federal bureaucracy.
Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas) is one of the leaders of this effort. Roy told us this Tuesday: “We’re trying to change the culture of a broken institution.”
Yet the problem for Roy and his small group of allies is, well, they’re vastly outnumbered. If they push too hard on changing House rules, they could lose some support from inside the Republican Conference. For example, restoring the motion to vacate won’t pass muster in the conference without McCarthy’s support. That’s why finding a middle ground on the MTV is so critical.
Our friend Alayna Treene of Axios pointed out a big problem for McCarthy. GOP Reps. Matt Rosendale (Mont.), Matt Gaetz (Fla.), Andy Biggs (Ariz.), Ralph Norman (S.C.) and Bob Good (Va.) are now saying they will all vote the same way for speaker. Nearly all of these lawmakers have declared quite definitively that they won’t vote for McCarthy. To be fair, lots of members change their minds on lots of issues, but this group seems pretty firm in their resolve.
We asked McCarthy what he makes of this development. “If they all vote for me, that’s good,” McCarthy responded.
We reminded him that it doesn’t seem like that’s what they are signaling, and that could be a challenge for him.
“It could, yeah,” McCarthy admitted.
Incoming House Majority Leader Steve Scalise said he believes McCarthy is making headway with his conservative critics.
“He’s been meeting, working … with a number of members to get there,” Scalise said.
When asked if he’d heard from any members who would like him to become speaker instead of McCarthy, Scalise responded this way:
– Jake Sherman
LAME DUCK
Week-long funding bill and NDAA move forward … slowly
The Senate still hasn’t agreed to move forward on a week-long continuing resolution designed to avoid a government shutdown or the annual defense authorization bill, but we should find out more on both topics pretty quickly today.
Let’s talk about government funding first. On Wednesday, the House passed a short-term government funding bill that will keep federal agencies open though next Friday, Dec. 23. The current funding deadline is tomorrow at midnight.
The vote tally in the House was 224-201, with nine Republicans crossing the aisle to back Democrats on the measure. House GOP leaders whipped against the CR, according to Republican lawmakers and aides, just like they’ll whip against the FY2023 omnibus next week.
This CR is needed to give House and Senate appropriators more time to draft and pass the roughly $1.7 trillion omnibus funding package. The massive bill will be taken up by the Senate first next week and then the House. Be prepared for a rocky week.
On the NDAA, Senate leaders haven’t hashed out a time agreement yet, although we expect that to happen today, including a vote on final passage – hopefully.
Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer filed cloture Wednesday night on the package. That would set up a cloture vote Friday, with a final vote over the weekend. That’s not going to happen. Instead, this is Schumer’s attempt to speed up talks on a time agreement.
Democrats are calling for a vote on Sen. Joe Manchin’s (D-W.Va.) permitting reforming proposal. That would be held as a 60-vote threshold. There’s pretty steep GOP opposition, so it’s very likely to fail.
Republicans are pushing for a vote on an amendment by Sens. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) and Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) that would reinstate members of the armed forces who were kicked out for refusing to take the Covid-19 vaccine. These service members would also get back pay.
Schumer’s office hotlined both amendments last night to determine if there were any objections. This would include a vote on final passage as well. We expect some guidance on the NDAA early today. Leadership aides on both sides expect the NDAA to pass, leaving the Senate free to work on the omnibus next week.
| → | Also: The Senate unanimously passed a bill Wednesday night by Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) to ban the use of the hugely popular TikTok app on government phones. |
This isn’t the first time this has happened. The Senate adopted a similar bill in August 2020, although it didn’t go anywhere in the House.
However, since that time, TikTok has absolutely exploded in popularity both in the United States and globally. There are more than 1 billion users worldwide, and it has surpassed Google as the world’s most popular website.
But the fact that TikTok is owned by Beijing-based ByteDance has made it a pariah in official Washington. The Chinese government is a part-owner of the company, which sets off alarm bells for U.S. officials and lawmakers.
“TikTok is a Trojan Horse for the Chinese Communist Party,” Hawley said in a statement. “It’s a major security risk to the United States, and until it is forced to sever ties with China completely, it has no place on government devices.”
| → | One final thing: House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer and a bipartisan group of lawmakers announced a deal on the Puerto Rico Status Act. |
The legislation authorizes a “federally sponsored plebiscite to resolve Puerto Rico’s political status.” Puerto Rico is currently classified as a U.S. territory, which Hoyer and the other lawmakers decried as holdover from the colonial era.
Puerto Ricans would vote for any of three options under this proposal: “Statehood, Independence, and Sovereignty in Free Association with the United States.”
The House is scheduled to vote on the bill today. Here’s Hoyer:
Here’s a section-by-section summary and a fact sheet from the House Natural Resources Committee.
– John Bresnahan
THE NEW WORLD
Man charged with making hundreds of threatening calls to members
A Washington State man has been indicted for allegedly making repeated threats against members of Congress.
Mark Leonetti, 48 of Longview, Wash., made 400 calls to members of Congress, several of which were threatening, the Justice Department said. Leonetti was charged with seven counts of making interstate threats.
According to the indictment, Leonetti leveled antisemitic slurs at lawmakers while threatening to murder both members of the House and Senate from both parties. The messages he left are quite vile. If you’re interested in reading the transcripts, check out the indictment. The U.S. Capitol Police, local authorities and the FBI were all involved in the investigation and subsequent arrest.
Threatening a member of Congress is against federal law.
Threats against members of Congress are at an all-time high. And it’s gotten far worse since the Jan. 6 insurrection.
The USCP has grappled with how to better protect lawmakers and their families, especially after Paul Pelosi, husband of Speaker Nancy Pelosi, was brutally attacked in the couple’s San Francisco home. A former GOP opponent of Rep. Randy Weber was arrested just this week for threatening to kill the Texas Republican.
The Capitol Police and Congress as an institution have tried to provide more resources to lawmakers. The House now gives each office a stipend to increase security at members’ homes. Officers are stationed at Washington Dulles, Washington Reagan and BWI to help members navigate airports when they fly home.
– Jake Sherman and John Bresnahan
PRESENTED BY INTUIT
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| → | Novavax, the vaccine company, has hired Crossroads Strategies to lobby on “[i]ssues related to COVID-19 vaccines.” Former Sen. John Breaux (D-La.) is on the account. |
– Jake Sherman
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Presented by Wells Fargo
At Wells Fargo, we cover more rural markets than many large banks, and nearly 30% of our branches are in low- or moderate-income census tracts. What we say, we do. See how.