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January 2, 2023
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THE TOP
Happy Monday morning. It’s 2023 and we’re back!
The 118th Congress begins tomorrow. The big story in Washington, of course, will be the return of divided government and what that means for President Joe Biden and the 2024 elections. Inflation and the state of the U.S. economy, the war in Ukraine, the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic, the GOP presidential scramble and former President Donald Trump’s legal travails will all be huge storylines as well. But the daily partisan clash on Capitol Hill will dominate our focus.
First, though, the fate of Kevin McCarthy must be decided, including whether he has the votes to become the next speaker of the House. RIght now, the answer is no. And the signs aren’t good for the California Republican.
There are between five to 10 House GOP lawmakers who may oppose McCarthy during Tuesday’s speaker vote on the floor. Even close allies privately worry that it’s “hard to see a path” for McCarthy to get the 218 votes he needs.
Yet so much remains fluid at the moment. And one can never underestimate how difficult it is for a member to publicly vote against their party leader for speaker.
If McCarthy were to fall, it would represent a new level of chaos for House Republicans, who have spent much of the last dozen years at war with the leadership of their party. Under this scenario, expect outright war between the middle of the conference and the 10 or so conservatives who blocked him from capturing the gavel.
Here are the troubling dynamics McCarthy faces heading into the most important 48 hours of his political career:
| → | Some House Republicans have personal gripes with McCarthy, and they’re not going to ever back him. Rep. Bob Good (R-Va.) has told colleagues he’s miffed that it took McCarthy weeks to call after the former Liberty University official won his 2021 primary. Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.) repeatedly has spewed sharp invective against McCarthy, saying there are 100 people he’d rather see become speaker. |
| → | There are other Republicans who believe that the House hasn’t operated properly for decades, under GOP or Democratic majorities. This isn’t new. Every time Republicans take the House majority, there’s a small faction of lawmakers who push for changes to the chamber’s operating procedures to make the institution more open. Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas) has been a leader of this effort. |
In a bid to win over these wavering Republicans, McCarthy’s office Sunday released a rules package for the 118th Congress that’s brimming with concessions to conservatives. In fact, the anti-McCarthy faction has won pretty much every change they’ve sought, yet they still refuse to back McCarthy.
McCarthy walked Republicans through the package during a 4 p.m. call Sunday afternoon. Here’s a summary sheet and the section-by-section analysis.
Most notably, McCarthy has reversed direction on his vow that he’d never change the “motion to vacate,” the procedure under which a speaker can be removed from office. Under the new proposal, any five Republicans can force a vote on replacing the speaker at any time. Currently, only a party leader can offer this motion. McCarthy’s decision essentially guarantees that he will face the same constant threat from his right as former Speakers John Boehner and Paul Ryan labored under. McCarthy, however, needed to make this offer, which shows how serious his predicament is.
McCarthy also released a letter indicating that he was striving for ideological balance on committees. That means you will see some conservatives on prime panels such as Appropriations, Ways and Means and Financial Services.
“In short, I will work with everyone in our party to build conservative consensus and translate that consensus into action,” McCarthy wrote.
Other big changes include: No more proxy voting; no “virtual” or “hybrid” committee hearings; magnetometers outside the House chamber will be removed, and potential fines for mask or security protocol violations are gone; the “Holman Rule” is back, meaning Republicans can zero out spending on certain executive-branch offices they don’t like; and all bills will be posted for 72 hours before a final vote.
Along with a select committee on competing with China, House Republicans will create a special panel to investigate “Weaponization of the Federal Government.” This is aimed at the FBI, Justice Department and other federal agencies that Republicans complain have been used by the Biden administration to go after political enemies.
But despite all that, nine House Republicans released a letter Sunday complaining “Mr. McCarthy’s statement comes almost impossibly late to address continued deficiencies ahead of the opening of the 118th Congress.” Rep. Scott Perry (R-Pa.), one of the signees, tweeted “Nothing changes when nothing changes, and that must start from the top. Time to make the change or get out of the way.” This letter infuriated McCarthy’s allies, as they believe they have met every single one of Perry’s demands.
Most troubling for McCarthy is the fact that Reps.-elect Andy Ogles (Tenn.) and Anna Paulina Luna (Fla.) signed onto the letter too. Ogles signed onto an earlier version as well, although the former Maury County mayor also said he’d back McCarthy.
Yet this new letter shows McCarthy’s biggest problem right now. While there’s long been a pocket of hard-core opponents, there’s a second-tier of undeclared Republicans who have yet to announce their positions for the speaker vote. And their ranks are shifting, which makes prediction – and solid vote counts – even more difficult.
During the Sunday afternoon conference call, there was plenty of debate about what these rules concessions will mean for McCarthy.
There’s frustration among the rank-and-file Republicans that anti-McCarthy conservative have brought the process of organizing for the new Congress to a halt. Rep. Tim Walberg (R-Mich.) told colleagues that he hears complaints about the mayhem when he goes to church. Some Republicans have privately vowed to the leadership that they’re only supporting the rules changes so McCarthy can win the speakership and would oppose them if he were defeated. McCarthy warned of this dynamic on the Sunday afternoon call.
BTW: While McCarthy struggles to get the speakership, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell will appear with Biden in Kentucky Wednesday.
Also: CNN’s Melanie Zanona and Lauren Fox: “Inside Kevin McCarthy’s struggle to lock down the House speakership”
– Jake Sherman and John Bresnahan
CRIB SHEET
Key dynamics to watch in Tuesday’s vote
Here are a few other factors you should be cognizant of from inside the House Republican Conference:
| → | Attendance: The attendance Tuesday will be a critical dynamic for House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy. With the death of Rep. Don McEachin (D-Va.) in late November, the new Congress will start with 434 members. McCarthy has to win the majority of the votes of those present and voting for a candidate for speaker by name. That’s 218 at this point, but it could fluctuate if any members can’t or don’t attend. House Democrats are working to ensure all of their members will be present on Tuesday. In Jan. 2015, Boehner was able to win reelection as speaker because some Democrats were attending Mario Cuomo’s funeral in New York. |
| → | Multiple ballots and the strategy: It seems increasingly likely that McCarthy won’t win the speakership on the first ballot. If McCarthy doesn’t get 218 in the opening attempt, the House will move to hold another ballot for the first time in more than a century. |
If McCarthy stays in for another ballot – which we expect will occur – Republican insiders tell us it’s critical that he keep lawmakers on the floor instead of recessing to go into a closed party meeting. If McCarthy’s strategy is to wear lawmakers down, the way to do it is by keeping them on the floor for as long as possible.
| → | How many ballots will McCarthy stay in? McCarthy and his allies insist he’s going to stand for election as speaker until victorious. But what if it becomes clear that he can’t win? How long will that take and how long can McCarthy hang on? |
If 10 Republicans vote for someone besides McCarthy on the first ballot and he doesn’t eat into that deficit on the second ballot, what will happen?
| → | And how about Scalise? There is no question that, if McCarthy falls, incoming House Majority Leader Steve Scalise will be the leading candidate for speaker. Scalise supports McCarthy and has been helpful to the California Republican in his quest to lock up 218. |
But Scalise will have to be ready to make a move if McCarthy drops out of the race. Disclaimer: McCarthy says he’ll never drop out. But only time will tell if that’s true.
Also, if Scalise becomes speaker – again, this is only if McCarthy withdraws – what does this do to the other leadership ranks?
– Jake Sherman and John Bresnahan
👀
Who we’re watching, speaker edition
We wanted to dedicate this edition of “Who We’re Watching” to some of the more intriguing lawmakers to watch in the speaker election.
| → | Rep. Matt Rosendale (R-Mont.): Rosendale has been pretty bearish on House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy. He’s also seen as a possible Senate candidate in 2024. Voting against McCarthy in a primary may be good for the base, especially if returning GOP Rep. Ryan Zinke – another potential Senate candidate – votes for McCarthy. But some Republicans have told us that opposing McCarthy could hurt Rosendale with donors. |
| → | Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas): The biggest winner of the last few weeks is Roy, the third-term Republican and former chief of staff to Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas). Roy pushed for a host of rules changes and actually won on most of them. GOP leadership has been bullish that Roy could vote for McCarthy after weeks of expressing doubt about him. |
| → | Rep. Ralph Norman (R-S.C.): Norman’s opposition to McCarthy came after McCarthy declined to endorse the Republican Study Committee’s spending blueprint. The GOP leadership seems confident that Norman will be there for McCarthy in the end. |
| → | The freshmen: Could some new lawmakers surprise us by voting against McCarthy? For example, Rep.-elect Anna Paulina Luna (Fla.) has said she may vote against McCarthy. How many more are there like her? |
– Jake Sherman and John Bresnahan
WELCOME TO CHAOS
How the Senate’s freshmen will fit in
More than $1 billion was spent in battleground Senate races in 2022, but the balance of power shifted by just a single seat, giving Democrats the slightest bit of breathing room with a 51-49 majority. No incumbent on the ballot lost, but the retirements of some of the longest-serving members mean there are seven new senators — five Republicans and two Democrats — heading into the 118th Congress.
Ahead of their swearing-in, we took a look at how each of them will fit into their respective conference or caucus — and the Senate as a whole.
| → | Katie Britt (R-Ala.): At just 40 years old, Britt will take office as the third-youngest senator but the only freshman with Senate experience. Britt served as chief of staff for the senator she’s replacing — Richard Shelby — and will be an especially familiar face to the Senate’s appropriators, where her former boss served for decades and steered hundreds of millions of dollars back home. Sen. Brian Schatz (D-Hawaii), an appropriator himself, recently said he’s “heard good things” about Britt. |
| → | Ted Budd (R-N.C.): First elected to the House in 2017, Budd easily won his party’s 2022 nomination after securing former President Donald Trump’s endorsement early on. The 51-year-old Budd voted as a down-the-line conservative in the House and was a member of the Freedom Caucus. We don’t expect much to change when Budd becomes a senator. Plus, his connections in the House will undoubtedly help the Senate GOP’s more rebellious group coordinate their efforts across the Capitol. |
| → | John Fetterman (D-Pa.): Fetterman enters the Senate as the only candidate this cycle to flip a seat, having defeated Mehmet Oz in the race to replace the retiring GOP Sen. Pat Toomey. A staunch progressive, Fetterman’s social media acuity puts him in the company of other Democratic post-ers like Schatz, Chris Murphy of Connecticut and Cory Booker of New Jersey. Fetterman’s stroke recovery isn’t likely to take him away from the Senate’s day-to-day business, but reporters hoping to pepper him with questions in the halls will likely be disappointed. |
| → | Markwayne Mullin (R-Okla.): “He brings House guy energy.” That’s what one Senate leadership aide said when asked about Mullin, who served in the House for a decade and had perhaps his most high-profile moment in Congress in 2021. |
A national-security hawk and former MMA fighter, Mullin grabbed headlines when he went rogue and tried to enter Afghanistan as that country’s government was falling to the Taliban. House leaders decried the move as irresponsible. Mullin said he was trying to rescue stranded Americans and later declared “I’m not Rambo.”
| → | Eric Schmitt (R-Mo.): Schmitt comes to the Senate as one of the most prominent faces of red states’ efforts to reverse Biden administration’s policies. The 47-year-old attorney general of Missouri spearheaded several lawsuits that animated conservatives, such as those aimed at rolling back Covid-19 mandates. |
| → | J.D. Vance (R-Ohio): It’s no secret which faction of the GOP conference this political newcomer will land in. The 38-year-old Vance ran as an “America First” candidate and closely tied himself to Trump, while having key boosters such as Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) — whom Vance will eclipse as the youngest GOP senator come Tuesday. |
The Republican that Vance is replacing, Rob Portman, was one of the Senate’s key bipartisan dealmakers and among Congress’ biggest supporters of Ukraine. Vance stands to be the opposite on both fronts, joining Hawley in what they describe as the “nationalist” wing of the GOP.
| → | Peter Welch (D-Vt.): Welch enters the upper chamber as an elder statesman of sorts, having served as Vermont’s lone House member since 2007. Welch replaces one of the Senate’s longest-serving members, Patrick Leahy. Welch, 75, is a consistent progressive and active in the national-security space in Congress, and could land a spot on the powerful Senate Intelligence Committee. |
— Andrew Desiderio
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THE CAMPAIGN
| → | Alaskans for Better Elections has an ad with a group of children talking about the ease of ranked choice voting. The spot is running in Juneau, Fairbanks and Anchorage. |
| → | Kelly Craft, former President Donald Trump’s ambassador to the United Nations, has a new ad running in Kentucky in support of her bid for governor. |
– Jake Sherman
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