The Archive

IN THIS EDITION

Chip’s cashed in: Roy holds the keys to Johnson’s speakership

How NOLA attack could impact Senate confirmation of Trump noms

D.C. police step up security after NOLA attack

The Vault: Departing OCC head has some warnings for Trump world

THE TOP

Chip’s cashed in: Roy holds the keys to Johnson’s speakership

Happy Thursday morning.

Inside President-elect Donald Trump’s orbit at Mar-a-Lago, there’s a bit of a parlor game going on. Just who, they wonder, will vote against Speaker Mike Johnson when the House kicks off the 119th Congress on Friday?

This bears repeating: In all likelihood, if just two House Republicans vote for someone other than Johnson on the floor during the speaker roll call, he can’t win. That would lead to chaos inside GOP ranks and a vast rearrangement of the trajectory of the House Republican Conference.

Trump’s argument for Johnson boils down to this: The Louisiana Republican is both a nice guy and the only one who can win the speaker’s gavel. It’s a similar argument former Speaker Kevin McCarthy’s allies made in January 2023; the California Republican was the only one who could get 218 votes.

Some Republicans don’t find this argument persuasive, however. After 14 months of Johnson as speaker, they’re ready to give someone else a chance.

Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) will do anything in his power to ensure that Johnson’s path to the speakership is obstructed, if not completely blocked.

This means that Johnson’s future as speaker may come down to Texas GOP Rep. Chip Roy. And it’s difficult to reconcile how Roy can vote for Johnson after his recent screed on the House floor against the speaker, though Roy insists he’s not a “hard no.”

This is a dangerous situation for Johnson due to a plethora of reasons.

First, Trump has a relatively inexperienced legislative affairs staff, which gives the incoming administration limited insight and few levers to pull with sitting members of the House. While Roy and Massie are certainly problems for Johnson, the incoming administration seems to be scrambling to figure out who else is a no.

Roy also prides himself on ideological purity and seems completely impervious to threats from Trump and his allies. Like Massie, Roy endorsed Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis in the Republican presidential primary.

From Roy’s point of view, Johnson failed to deliver on several issues that the Texas Republican advocated for – tight spending restraints, holding firm on the SAVE Act and strict border restrictions. Of course, these were impossible given Democratic control of the Senate. Yet that’s not enough for Roy.

A call from Trump to Roy would probably do little good — and some in Trump’s orbit realize that.

Behind the scenes. Roy has suggested Johnson name him as chair of the Rules Committee, a panel on which he already sits. Roy, though, has been a major problem for both Johnson and McCarthy since he was added to Rules, and tapping him as chair would upset other Republicans. Roy allies see it as a way to provide a check on Johnson.

Unlike McCarthy, sources close to Johnson say he isn’t willing to negotiate on the rules package for the 119th Congress, which the GOP released Wednesday. The new House rules stipulate that nine members of the majority have to band together to oust the speaker. (Here’s the section-by-section analysis of the rules, if you want to dig in.)

Payback. Trump’s inner circle is also promising retribution for those who cross the president-elect and vote against the speaker. Massie, we should note, has already survived a pro-Trump primary challenge.

“The president will take these attention-seeking antics by certain members as a personal slight — one that he won’t soon forgive or forget,” one Trump insider involved in whipping for Johnson told us.

Trump’s interest in electing Johnson seems to be born of a simple calculation: overthrowing the incumbent speaker would begin the 119th Congress — and thus the new presidency — on a chaotic note. Johnson and Trump, who huddled at Mar-a-Lago on New Year’s Day, have been coordinating on legislative strategy for months. If there were a new speaker, Trump would have to start from scratch. This isn’t impossible. But it would be hard.

Roy also isn’t Johnson’s only headache heading into Friday’s vote either, although it may be difficult for other rank-and-file Republicans to oppose him. Rep. Scott Perry (R-Pa.) said that Johnson has not “been artful” in executing Trump’s agenda on Capitol Hill. Reps. Eric Burlison (R-Mo.), Tim Burchett (R-Tenn.) and Ralph Norman (R-S.C.), as well as HFC Chair Andy Harris (R-Md.), also remain undecided.

Yet there is some good news for Johnson. At least two Freedom Caucus members have committed to supporting him after Trump endorsed him. Rep. Josh Brecheen (R-Okla.) expressed his support earlier this week, while Rep. Paul Gosar (R-Ariz.) told us he would also support Johnson. Gosar was previously leaning against supporting Johnson.

Democrats: With 215 members heading into the new Congress, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries and senior Democrats face one of the tightest margins of control in decades. And they expect all their members to be present and voting on Friday.

This includes former Speaker Nancy Pelosi, who recently suffered a broken hip after falling during a visit to Normandy. And Reps. David Scott (D-Ga.), Jerry Nadler (D-N.Y.) and Raúl Grijalva (D-Ariz.) — all of whom were recently replaced as ranking committee members heading into the new Congress — are also expected to be there, Democratic sources said.

— Jake Sherman, Melanie Zanona, Mica Soellner and John Bresnahan

THE SENATE

How NOLA attack could impact Senate confirmation of Trump noms

The suspected ISIS-inspired terrorist attack in New Orleans is fueling GOP calls to expedite Senate confirmation of President-elect Donald Trump’s national security nominees.

The 42-year-old suspect drove a pickup truck through a New Year’s crowd in the city’s famed Bourbon Street area, killing 15 people and injuring dozens. The FBI, which is leading the investigation, said an ISIS flag was found in the vehicle. The suspect was killed in the attack.

Senate Republican leaders said the attack underscored the need to quickly confirm Trump’s nominees for national security positions, with incoming Senate Majority Whip John Barrasso saying in part: “Lives depend on it.”

Here’s incoming Majority Leader John Thune:

GOP leaders had already indicated they’ll prioritize national security nominees on the Senate floor starting Jan. 20. But that doesn’t mean they’ll all be ready for confirmation come Inauguration Day.

That’s because many of Trump’s most controversial Cabinet picks are in the national security realm — including Pentagon pick Pete Hegseth, FBI nominee Kash Patel, and former Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (Hawaii), the nominee for director of national intelligence.

The New Orleans attack could help limit confirmation drama for this group, but there are other factors to consider as well.

Uncertain timeline: Hegseth’s confirmation hearing is slated for Jan. 14. Gabbard’s is expected to take place that week as well. But Patel’s hearing may not happen until February because the Judiciary Committee is expected to process the attorney general and deputy AG nominees first. Former Florida AG Pam Bondi is Trump’s nominee for attorney general.

There’s no guarantee that Hegseth or Gabbard will be ready for floor time a week after their hearings, which could reveal additional vulnerabilities impacting their confirmation prospects.

The Senate is expected to pass an organizing resolution for the 119th Congress on Friday afternoon. That will officially give Republicans control of Senate committees.

Most committees require at least a week’s notice for hearings or business meetings. So it’s unlikely that there will be any Cabinet confirmation hearings next week.

That shouldn’t prevent some nominations from being ready for immediate floor action. For instance, Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.), the nominee for secretary of state, is likely to draw wide Democratic support.

This is news: Gabbard, the DNI nominee, is scheduled to meet with the Intelligence Committee’s top Democrat, Virginia Sen. Mark Warner, on Monday, per a source familiar with the matter.

Gabbard has already met with most Republican senators and every GOP member of the Intelligence Committee except Sen. Todd Young (R-Ind.), the panel’s newest member.

But Gabbard’s meeting with Warner will be crucial as the controversial nominee seeks potential Democratic support. Aides in both parties see that as unlikely, which could complicate Gabbard’s path to confirmation if there are GOP defections.

Gabbard previously met with Democratic Sens. Jon Ossoff (Ga.) and John Fetterman (Pa.). Ossoff sits on the Intelligence Committee.

Schumer on Dem strategy: Earlier this week, we asked outgoing Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer how Democrats will handle Trump’s Cabinet picks.

Schumer predicted “it’ll be a mix” in terms of Democratic support for individual nominees — an acknowledgment that Trump’s nominees run the gamut from easily confirmable to potentially problematic.

“There will be some, I think, that a good chunk of Democrats will support. And there will be some who we oppose,” Schumer said. “You have to wait for the full FBI report to come out, I think, before you can say which ones.”

Schumer’s Senate Democratic Caucus also includes several lawmakers who are politically vulnerable in 2026, such as Ossoff and Sen. Gary Peters (D-Mich.). Schumer told us he’s taking a hands-off approach with them:

— Andrew Desiderio

SECURING THE DISTRICT

D.C. police step up security after NOLA attack

The D.C. Metropolitan Police said it has stepped up its “security posture” following Wednesday’s deadly terror attack in New Orleans.

Here’s the statement from D.C. police:

Of course, the attack in New Orleans and the Tesla Cybertruck that blew up outside the Trump Hotel in Las Vegas come just days before the 119th Congress convenes to elect the speaker and certify the 2024 presidential election. President-elect Donald Trump’s inauguration also looms just a few weeks away. Security is always very tight at those events, and it will be even more so this year following the assassination attempts against Trump.

Security fencing is already going up around the Capitol, as is standard procedure for a presidential inauguration.

Congressional leaders — Speaker Mike Johnson and outgoing Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer — have already been briefed on the recent attacks.

And the House Homeland Security Committee will be briefed on the attacks at 10 a.m. today, according to a source familiar with the matter.

— Jake Sherman, Andrew Desiderio and Melanie Zanona

… AND THERE’S MORE

The Money Game. Rep. Mike Levin (D-Calif.) has a “thank you” reception today at The Frost Group on Pennsylvania Ave, SE. Rep.-elect Wesley Bell (D-Mo.), who beat former Rep. Cori Bush (D-Mo.), is holding a “swearing-in party” Friday at Barrel — also on Pennsylvania Ave, SE.

Downtown Download. Ballard Partners, known to be close to the Trump administration, has signed Pasco County, Fla., to lobby on a host of issues. Ballard also signed Babel Street Inc. to lobby on IT issues and ​Douglas County PUD to lobby on “The Columbia River Treaty between the U.S. and Canada.

— Jake Sherman

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