The Archive

IN THIS EDITION

Welcome to Punchbowl News Tech

Garry Tan is hopeful about Trump

Where Tech’s dreams will go to thrive or die on the Hill

Who’s up, who’s down?

Who’s going to love Trump’s regulators

THE TOP

Welcome to Punchbowl News Tech

Happy Wednesday morning.

The next 25 years in tech could make the disruption of the last quarter century look like a software glitch.

Artificial intelligence is poised to go from intriguing us in a handful of domains to leaving human smarts in its dust. Tech is becoming an ever-more crucial theater of diplomacy — and conflict.

We haven’t exactly solved privacy, cybersecurity, smart infrastructure, spectrum or how AI handles intellectual property either.

And the federal government is woefully behind in grappling with these giant leaps in technology.

That’s why we’re launching Punchbowl News Tech.

This is the inaugural edition of our quarterly newsletter. Each time we land in your inbox, we’ll be taking you inside the power, people and politics of tech policy. We’ll bring you indispensable breaking news from top lawmakers, powerful regulators and businesses trying to win the future.

Ready or not, policymakers are going to have an increasingly important role in how tech shapes our economy, society and relationships with friends and foes alike.

At Punchbowl News, we’re here to make sure our readers are never shocked about what’s really happening in the nation’s capital. Our unparalleled access to Capitol Hill, and our years spent scrutinizing regulators, means we’re best positioned to blast out what’s really going on in the corridors of power.

Here’s what you can expect from our first edition:

– An exclusive interview with Garry Tan, the CEO of the famed Silicon Valley startup accelerator Y Combinator and budding leader of “Little Tech” in DC. He explains why some Democrats in the industry have high hopes for a second Trump administration.

– A Senate cheat sheet laying out what the key lawmakers for tech policy actually want to get done next year and what they’ll be fighting about among themselves.

– A tech-specific take on our Punchbowl News Power Matrix.

– A peek at how Trump’s regulators see the world and how industries are poised to pounce on their priorities.

Questions or comments? Email me — ben@punchbowl.news.

And coming soon, Punchbowl News Tech will be our latest Premium Policy offering, providing you with all the news you need to know. Learn more here.

We hope you enjoy our dive into the future of tech policy.

— Ben Brody

THE INTERVIEW

Garry Tan is hopeful about Trump

Garry Tan thinks President-elect Donald Trump can clear the way for 1,500 major new tech companies every year — if his administration focuses more on Little, not Big, Tech.

As CEO of Y Combinator, the famed Silicon Valley startup accelerator, Tan’s business is trying to help tech startups take off. And, as one of the biggest Valley figures trying to muscle in on Big Tech lobbying, Tan sees the D.C. game as part of the work.

That’s why we wanted to talk to Tan about what promise his industry sees in Trump, the policy legacy of Big Tech and the place of advanced technology in world affairs.

“I think that there is a bipartisan hope, actually, that the new administration can bring in technology and have it actually serve the people of America in a much more fundamental way,” Tan told us.

Tan emphasized he’s “a San Francisco Democrat” who hasn’t met Trump. Yet he explained that he sees an administration that’s open to competition enforcement that protects AI startups and is ready to install regulators that’ll let crypto flourish.

“While there are things that I think everyone is a little bit worried about, on the other hand, there’s a lot to be hopeful for in this transition,” Tan said.

Focus on Vance: Tan is particularly enthusiastic about Vice President-elect JD Vance, a former venture capitalist. The CEO met the then-Ohio senator in May and brought in Vance to speak on the importance of policies friendly to upstarts.

Tan said he hopes Vance “has really a very deep influence on what the Trump administration does.”

For Tan, it’s all about what he calls Little Tech — startups and, frankly, plenty of medium-sized firms, especially in AI. He sees Big Tech as sucking up the most useful data and channeling crucial research to its own computers.

To Tan, Little’s Tech’s flourishing is all but dependent on knocking all that back.

Hence the 1,500 companies: Tan said 20 years ago, Silicon Valley focused on the roughly 15 firms per year that were poised to reach a $100 million valuation and go public. Now it can be 100 times that, and even more in the future, if policy-makers help.

“​​I don’t want, you know, seven companies worth a trillion dollars,” he said. “I want thousands of companies that give consumers choice.”

Y Combinator sets founders up with funding, training and networking, usually for a piece of the company. It had a hand in Airbnb, Coinbase, DoorDash, Instacart and Cruise (now owned by GM).

Tan took over at the beginning of 2023 and began trying to get D.C. on the side of startups. Tan didn’t pioneer lobbying for smaller companies or criticizing big ones, and he admits he’s still developing his priorities. He was, however, early to the wave of VC-aligned, Big Tech-skeptical, AI-first advocacy that’s now undeniably rising.

Despite his optimism, Tan is wary that Trump’s tech-related nominees — for posts like Federal Trade Commissioner — may be too closely tied to the current giants. Here’s his take:

All about AI: Tan also does sometimes sound like a Big Tech lobbyist. He complains that policymakers, especially at the state level, “need to consult with founders who are actually building real AI services before just forging ahead with these overly burdensome regulatory frameworks that try to promote AI safety.”

A top priority in AI is open-source technology — non-proprietary systems that other researchers can build on, a boon for startups. Safety advocates often worry that being able to freely repurpose applications gives too much power to bad actors.

Tan’s view is that current laws can tackle a lot of what’s worrisome. “Creating bio-terror weapons is already illegal,” he said.

And he’s aware that lawmakers aren’t quite ready to regulate AI.

“Just leaving things to the Congress will be a challenge, because it just takes many years for something like that to happen,” he said.

Crypto craze. Tan’s optimistic, too, for an era after Securities and Exchange Commission Chair Gary Gensler, the industry’s bogeyman under President Joe Biden.

“We think that Gensler hasn’t… given a fair shake to what is a very bright part of the American economy,” Tan said.

Tan called stablecoins in particular “actually very useful, very viable.” Here’s more from Tan:

International affairs. Tan talks about wanting tech — and Trump’s administration — to help Americans at home and protect U.S. strategic interests abroad.

Still, China-U.S. dynamics have gotten hostile, he says.

“I sort of hope that maybe there can be a thaw,” Tan said. “The invective is pretty high these days.”

Talks on high-skilled immigration need to come back too, said Tan, who is a naturalized American citizen.

“We should get a ‘staple green card to diplomas’ sort of conversation restarted,” he said. “I think skilled immigration should be something that fits very tightly with ‘What does it look like to make the most vibrant America?’”

— Ben Brody

HILL HIERARCHY

Where Tech’s dreams will go to thrive or die on the Hill

New tech policy law runs through one place: The Senate Commerce Committee.

Sure, President-elect Donald Trump’s regulators can change the tech landscape. In fact, we’ll get into their plans below. The House has plenty of ideas too.

But ultimately, the administration and even the House know they need to contend with the Senate. The Commerce Committee is going to be the most important stop for new tech ideas. It’ll be largely up to Chair Ted Cruz (R-Texas) to decide how to handle them and resolve any intra-GOP tensions.

First, a word on Cruz: Industry is certainly OK with potential deregulation but isn’t totally thrilled that the Texan has the gavel. Companies worry Cruz doesn’t want to continue investing in advanced tech as a way to beat China. K Street also thinks he’ll dilly-dally on passing a national privacy law, which has been at the top of their priority list for many years now.

Cruz has said his priorities are job creation and reducing regulations. We heard from Cruz, his colleagues and K Street, though, about what specifically he’s ready to tee up:

Spectrum: Cruz said shortly after the election that he wants to get more wireless spectrum that’s currently reserved for the government into the hands of the private sector. Above all, that’s going to mean reauthorizing the Federal Communications Commission’s authority to auction off the spectrum bands.

AI: Cruz’s contribution to the problem of non-consensual, AI-enabled nudes is his bill to force the takedown of such images, which passed the Senate Tuesday night. The House version hasn’t made it out of committee, though, so Cruz may have to bring the bill back next year.

Otherwise, on AI, he’s told us he wants “a light-touch regulatory approach with the private sector driving innovation.”

Broadband: Cruz has promised to dig into the National Telecommunications and Information Administration for its broadband equity program. The incoming chair said he wanted to look into “rate regulation; unionized workforce and DEI labor requirements; climate change assessments; [and] excessive per-location costs.”

He’s also warned NTIA of his view that a digital grant program “impermissibly discriminates based on race.”

Energy: Not surprisingly, Cruz says he wants to boost energy production, though he hasn’t provided many details. Tech companies are scrambling to lock in energy from all kinds of sources for AI projects but are less interested in Texas oil and gas.

Nominees: Cruz will also be handling a slew of nominees, though we expect him to take particular interest in Federal Trade Commissioners. Cruz is a former FTC official himself and a big critic of current Chair Lina Khan.

Cruz isn’t alone. There’ll be more than a dozen Republicans on the panel next year. Some of them just have different priorities. Some of them will fundamentally disagree with Cruz.

The AI Safety Institute: Sen. Todd Young (R-Ind.) told us that he’ll be focused next year on his legislation to formalize a key administration effort to measure AI safety and efficiency and detect fake content.

That’s interesting because, supposedly, Young’s bill is still a live possibility for the end of the year. Cruz, though, isn’t a fan of AISI. That may put a damper on the bill this year — and cause some friction in 2025.

Yes, privacy. Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R-Tenn.) called recently for a comprehensive data protection bill to finally advance. She’s also a prime force behind a bill to regulate the design of social media services in a way that protects young users. The effort is falling short in the House but will undoubtedly return.

Aviation. That’s a top priority for Sen. Jerry Moran (R-Kan.), who told us he’s also going to be interested in broadband issues.

Chinese telecom gear. The chair of the House Energy and Commerce Committee, who will be Cruz’s main negotiating partner in the other chamber, will be decided in the coming days. Both candidates are interested in the effort to continue clearing Chinese tech out of U.S. networks. Meanwhile, one contender, Rep. Bob Latta (R-Ohio), loves autonomous vehicles, while the other, Rep. Brett Guthrie (R-Ky.), is big into health.

— Ben Brody

TECH POWER MATRIX

Who’s up, who’s down?

— Ben Brody

AGENCY AGENDA

Who’s going to love Trump’s regulators

Congress takes a while to wrap its head around new tech, but regulatory and law enforcement agencies can start changing the way businesses operate on day one of the Trump administration.

Companies are optimistic that President-elect Donald Trump’s appointees are going to provide a more comfortable environment for them, though there are places they’d prefer certainty over freedom.

Here’s our latest reporting on which industries stand to gain the most from, and will find themselves newly powerful in, the Trump administration:

Big Tech: Trump’s no fan of Big Tech and has a populist anti-monopoly streak in him. But under the surface, Trump loves deal-making and has signaled that aggressive competition enforcement hurts American companies that he wants out-competing their Chinese counterparts. If Google, Amazon and the rest of Big Tech can stop battling the type of opposition to their acquisitions they’ve faced during the Biden administration, the companies will be happy enough.

Little Tech: Big Tech will do fine, but, as Garry Tan said in our sitdown, there’s optimism among venture capital firms, artificial intelligence startups and midsize apps that people like Vice President-elect JD Vance are making more of the decisions under Trump.

Satellite internet: It’s all about Trump’s newest friend, Elon Musk, and his Starlink. Going back to Trump’s first administration, the Federal Communications Commission wanted Starlink in the mix of broadband buildout. President Joe Biden’s FCC pulled back a ton of funding, but incoming FCC Chair Brendan Carr, who was a commissioner at the time, has screamed bloody murder about the agency’s treatment of Musk.

Broadband: As with Big Tech, this industry faces a mixed landscape but with some real opportunities. It’ll be facing off with Starlink even more, and broadband buildout funds are under threat on the Hill. On the other hand, the industry can kiss net neutrality goodbye (again) and know that, overall, a lot of bureaucratic anger will be redirected toward websites and broadcasters.

Crypto: So long to Securities and Exchange Commission Chair Gary Gensler, hello to a president who’s listening to the pitch for a strategic bitcoin reserve and a Congress that knows the industry’s political spending is serious.

Private equity: As with Big Tech, Biden’s competition enforcers had a particular distaste for private equity buyers, especially when it comes to healthcare. Now, the M&A landscape is set to take off under Trump. PE will be in the midst of the action — with a freer hand.

Of course, many industries have found out the hard way that predictability isn’t the hallmark of a Trump administration. The scramble to win — and keep — friends is sure to keep all kinds of lobbyists on their toes.

— Ben Brody