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December 5, 2022
Punchbowl News Presents
Introducing Tech – our newest policy vertical. From high-profile interviews with industry influencers & policymakers to key lobbying updates, Punchbowl News Tech will be your go-to for timely technology insights.
PRESENTED BY
THE TOP
Happy Monday morning.
This is another huge week for Washington as the lame-duck session of the 117th Congress grinds on.
The Georgia Senate runoff is Tuesday, with enormous implications for how the chamber will operate (if you’re a Senate Democrat, 51 seats is a lot better than 50.) Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer will be formally tapped for another two years in his post while House Republicans begin picking committee chairs for next year. The Supreme Court will hold oral arguments Wednesday in a high-profile case involving the “independent state legislature theory” that could impact House seats in North Carolina and beyond. Former President Donald Trump called for “termination of all rules, regulations, and articles, even those found in the Constitution” after it was disclosed that Twitter employees wrestled with how to treat the NY Post’s Hunter Biden story late in the 2020 campaign, which will get a lot of attention from Democrats.
But let’s start with the three biggest issues of the lame-duck session: Government funding, the defense authorization bill and tax extenders. The blocking and tackling of governing, if you will. So far, congressional leaders aren’t doing much of either.
| → | Government funding: As far as we can tell, there’s no real movement here. There’s no agreement on a “topline number” for FY2023 spending. Without that, the House and Senate Appropriations panels can’t draft the 12 annual spending bills. |
The issue is non-defense spending. Democrats won’t go along with a big increase in Pentagon funding – supported by both parties – without an increase in spending on social programs. Republicans complain that Democrats got new money for social programs in the Inflation Reduction Act and won’t approve any more. Ergo, stalemate.
Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell is the key here. McConnell and other senior Senate Republicans are taking a tough line, despite a high-level meeting in the White House last week where everyone promised to get along.
The continuing resolution funding the government expires on Dec. 16. It’s clear another CR is going to be needed to avoid a shutdown (there’s not going to be a shutdown, just FYI.) Dec. 23 seems the likely new end date but the possibility of an unprecedented year-long CR – until the end of September 2023 – is now really in play. We still think a deal happens, yet neither side is making it easy.
OMB will send a list of “year-long CR anomalies” to the Hill today, according to a source familiar with the situation. These are changes that need to be enacted in order to keep federal agencies operating if current spending levels are extended. So the White House is getting ready for the “full-year CR” scenario.
The Pentagon has never been funded under a year-long CR, and national security officials from Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin on down will be pretty irate over this possibility. Expect the pressure to amp up on that front.
Congress also hasn’t acted on President Joe Biden’s request for $37 billion in new military and economic aid for Ukraine, or billions of dollars in disaster relief and Covid prep funding. Ukraine is a huge priority for Biden and many lawmakers in both parties.
| → | Defense authorization. The National Defense Authorization Act – a must-pass defense policy bill that’s been approved every year since the early 1960s – is going to be released as early as today. The outlook is good. House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer has scheduled a floor vote this week. The Senate could move pretty quickly as well; McConnell and Republicans have been demanding action on this bill for a while. |
The issue here is the Pentagon’s Covid-19 vaccine mandate. Republicans have pressed for ending the mandate, and it looks like Democrats and the White House may sign off on that. But what happens to the thousands of service members forced out for refusing to take the vaccine? The two sides are trying to find “some very loose” language that would allow the Pentagon to deal with that, according to a Republican familiar with the situation.
| → | Tax extenders: There’s a lot of buzz about a potential tax extenders bill, possibly even a package including an renewal of the expanded Child Tax Credit, but the outlook here is hazy. There’s been bipartisan back-and-forth between senior members of the House Ways and Means and Senate Finance panels, yet not a lot of concrete action. No one can seem to agree what would be in a tax extender package. Again, Republican leaders are the key here. McConnell and House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy haven’t expressed much support. So we’ll have to see. |
More news: Incoming House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries and the House Democratic Caucus are moving quickly – very, in fact – to get organized for the next Congress. They expect to have everything done internally by the middle of next week, including approving all ranking members for committees (Oversight and Transportation and Infrastructure are being contested). Rep. Brendan Boyd (D-Pa.) will be nominated as ranking member for the Budget Committee this Tuesday. A pick for DCCC chair is expected in the next few weeks, per a Jeffries aide, which the full caucus will have to ratify later.
In memoriam: The funeral for the late Rep. Donald McEachin (D-Va.) will be held Wednesday morning at 11 a.m. at St. Paul’s Baptist Church in Richmond. A large number of Democrats are expected to attend the service.
— John Bresnahan and Heather Caygle
Reminder: Our last event of the year is next week! Join us virtually for an interview with Sen. Ron Wyden (D-Ore.) on Tues., Dec. 13 at 10 a.m. ET about the importance of privacy and security in new and existing technologies. RSVP here!
👀
Who we’re watching
| → | Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell: Republicans may have failed to capture the majority on Nov. 8, but McConnell still calls many of the shots in the lame-duck session. McConnell and top Senate Republicans won’t agree to a Democratic proposal to boost domestic spending in FY2023, so there’s no deal on moving forward on an omnibus package. This puts Democratic leaders and the White House in a tough spot. The Pentagon doesn’t want a CR, and there’s lots more work to be done in the next few weeks. |
| → | Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer: Schumer has already been Senate Democratic leader for three terms (it’s gone by so fast), and he’s going to be unanimously reelected to another term by his colleagues on Thursday. Schumer will set the record for the longest-serving senator in New York State history next month. And, of course, he’s the first Jewish person to leader a congressional caucus. If Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-Ga.) wins in Georgia, we expect Schumer to yell Yahtzee! |
| → | House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy: The quest for 218 continues this week for McCarthy. One thing we’re watching is whether McCarthy weighs in on the contested Ways and Means Committee race, which is principally between Reps. Jason Smith (R-Mo.) and Vern Buchanan (R-Fla.). House Minority Whip Steve Scalise favors Buchanan. But McCarthy has officially kept his powder dry, even though some believe he favors Smith. |
— John Bresnahan
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What we’re watching
| → | Tuesday: The Senate Agriculture Committee will have a hearing on the farm bill, focused on research programs. |
| → | Wednesday: The Senate Foreign Relations Committee has a hearing on a number of nominations, including Joey Hood to be ambassador to Tunisia, Lucy Tamlyn to be ambassador to Congo, Jessica Davis Ba to be ambassador to the Ivory Coast and Rachna Sachdeva Korhonen to be ambassador to Mali. |
| → | Thursday: The Senate Judiciary Committee will have a hearing on a number of judicial nominations. The House Judiciary Committee will have a hearing on “politicking at SCOTUS.” |
— Jake Sherman
PRESENTED BY BLUE CROSS BLUE SHIELD ASSOCIATION
We’re working to make health care more affordable and equitable, in every ZIP code, for the health of America.
LEADER LOOK
News: New Dems back Spanberger for battleground leadership role
The New Democrat Coalition leadership team is endorsing Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D-Va.) to serve as the Battleground Leadership Representative for House Democrats.
Spanberger, a member of the pro-business caucus, is running against Rep. Matt Cartwright (D-Pa.) for the newly created position. House Democrats voted to establish the slot in order to grant Frontline and Red-to-Blue Democrats a seat at the leadership table. Rep. Susie Lee (D-Nev.) proposed the position in late November.
Here’s an excerpt from New Dems Chair Suzan DelBene’s (D-Wash.) endorsement letter:
The election for the position, which is only voted on by Frontliners and Red-to-Blue members, will occur on Tuesday.
— Max Cohen
THE CAMPAIGN
| → | Here’s an interesting spot in the Georgia Senate race. This ad has people saying why they can’t support Republican Herschel Walker. The Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-Ga.) ad is running statewide. |
– Jake Sherman
PRESENTED BY BLUE CROSS BLUE SHIELD ASSOCIATION
Making health care affordable and equitable, for the health of America.
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Punchbowl News Presents
Introducing Tech – our newest policy vertical. From high-profile interviews with industry influencers & policymakers to key lobbying updates, Punchbowl News Tech will be your go-to for timely technology insights.
Read our first Tech Quarterly now