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December 7, 2022
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PRESENTED BY
THE TOP
Happy Wednesday morning.
Sen. Raphael Warnock’s (D-Ga.) nearly three-point win over Republican Herschel Walker completes a stunning political sweep for Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and Senate Democrats.
Every Democratic Senate incumbent won re-election this cycle, the first time in almost 90 years that either party can say that. It gives Schumer a 51-seat majority, full control of all of the committees and the ability to minimize the sway of Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) next year.
Schumer will hold a press conference at 10 a.m. to celebrate Warnock’s win.
This also closes the book on a utterly disastrous cycle for Senate Republicans and former President Donald Trump. Despite a favorable political landscape, a first-term president stumbling in the polls and hundreds of millions of dollars in TV ads, Republicans squandered chances to pick up winnable seats in Arizona, Pennsylvania, Nevada, Georgia and New Hampshire. Trump-backed candidates lost all those races.
Maybe nowhere was that more evident than the Peach State, where Trump recruited Walker to run. Trump’s endorsement and his status as a Georgia football icon got Walker through the GOP primary pretty easily.
But an unending stream of scandals involving Walker’s personal life, coupled with his subpar performance as a candidate, doomed his campaign.
Walker’s defeat completes an epically bad cycle for Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.) as NRSC chair. Scott had confidently predicted a GOP majority in the 118th Congress, but instead Democrats netted a one-seat gain.
After publicly and privately clashing with Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell throughout the cycle, Scott challenged the Kentucky Republican for GOP leader. That effort failed as well.
The 70-year-Scott’s future is now unclear. He’s been seen as a potential presidential candidate in 2024. But with Trump already running and Florida GOP Gov. Ron DeSantis looking like he will too, Scott’s path to the Republican nomination appears shut off. Scott is polling in the low single digits in GOP presidential surveys. Scott can run for reelection for his Senate seat in two years, and he’s proven he can win tough races in red-friendly Florida. But it will be a McConnell-run conference for the foreseeable future, and there are a host of other Republicans ahead of him if Scott wants to try for Senate leadership again.
NDAA out and omnibus is nowhere
House and Senate Democrats released the National Defense Authorization Act Tuesday night, and Republicans have some big policy wins to tout in the package. Democrats, though, hope this will break a legislative logjam over both defense policy and government funding.
House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy helped secure the inclusion of nixing the vaccine mandate for the military as part of the annual bill, which has been passed every year since the 1960s. Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R-Tenn.) and other conservative Republicans had also been pushing hard on this issue.
The 4,000-plus page package calls for a $45 billion increase in defense spending over President Joe Biden’s budget request. This is the same level approved by the Senate Armed Services Committee.
The House will vote on the measure later this week, and the Senate next week.
Left on the cutting room floor: the SAFE Banking Act, Sen. Joe Manchin’s (D-W.Va.) permitting reform plan and a proposal that would allow news companies to band together to negotiate with tech platforms.
A proposal by Schumer and Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) to bar U.S. government contractors from using Chinese-made semiconductor chips was added to the measure.
With nine days until the deadline, you would be right to ask where the FY2023 government funding bills stand. And the answer is “nowhere.” GOP and Democratic appropriators remain tens of billions of dollars apart on a topline number. Congress will need to pass a stopgap funding bill by next week to avoid a shutdown. The current continuing resolution expires on Dec. 16. The question is whether that new deadline is late December or do party leaders kick it into 2023, when Republicans take over the House and a deal gets even tougher?
Democrats are hoping that their victory in Georgia and the release of the NDAA will break the stalemate and prod Republicans to cut a funding deal. In particular, with the NDAA out, Democrats note that it’s just an authorization bill. Congress still has to pass funding for the Pentagon and other defense programs separately. So if GOP leaders want to actually boost Pentagon spending, they need to reach an omnibus deal.
– Jake Sherman and John Bresnahan
TODAY: Don’t miss our last in-person event of the year! We’re sitting down with Rep. Jason Smith (R-Mo.) at 9 a.m. ET to talk about his priorities for the Ways and Means Committee next year. RSVP to join us at The Roost or virtually here!
E TU?
As McCarthy tries for 218, what’s Scalise up to?
The question a lot of House Republicans are asking right now is this — As Kevin McCarthy struggles to get 218 votes to become speaker, where is Steve Scalise?
For the record: Scalise is supportive of McCarthy. The incoming House majority leader told us in an interview Tuesday that he thinks McCarthy will wrangle enough votes to become the 53rd speaker of the House.
But he’s not lining up completely with McCarthy, and we wanted to point out a few data points that illustrate that.
| → | Let’s start with this: McCarthy is trying to project an air of inevitability – that he will be speaker no matter how long it takes. We asked Scalise Tuesday if it’s “inevitable” that McCarthy will be speaker. Here’s what he said: |
| → | Now to our friend Manu Raju of CNN. Scalise told Manu that he would “not … get into speculation” about whether he could emerge as a candidate if McCarthy couldn’t get 218 votes. Here’s more from Scalise: |
We don’t have to explain the impact of Scalise not shutting down conversation of himself being a fallback option if McCarthy fails.
| → | One of the big hang ups between McCarthy and conservatives is over the “motion to vacate,” the mechanism by which any member can seek removal of the speaker. Conservative Republicans used it to undermine then Speaker John Boehner in 2015, and threatened to use it against his successor, Paul Ryan. |
Democrats severely restricted the ability to use this procedure when they took over in 2019, allowing only members of leadership to bring it up at the behest of the party. Previously, any lawmaker could force a vote.
McCarthy has been absolutely firm that he won’t reinstate the rule permitting any member to file such a motion, despite complaints from conservatives.
We asked Scalise about McCarthy’s red line and whether he believed the motion to vacate should be reinstated.
So yes, Scalise says he’s for McCarthy. But Scalise declined to say whether he supports him on the motion to vacate – one of the critical decisions facing McCarthy – and whether the California Republican is “inevitable” as speaker, as McCarthy is presenting himself to be.
– Jake Sherman
LEADER LOOK
Jeffries faces DCCC dilemma in early leadership test
Incoming House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries is staring down a consequential early test of his leadership tenure: who to nominate to lead the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.
With Democrats having a real chance of flipping the chamber blue in 2024, multiple Democrats have floated to us that Jeffries could pick someone other than California Reps. Ami Bera and Tony Cárdenas, the two publicly announced candidates for the high-profile job.
As we’ve noted previously, there’s nothing in the text of the recent rules change that forces the Democratic leader to nominate a DCCC chair who’s publicly seeking the role. And the full caucus still has to ratify Jeffries’ nominee.
Jeffries told us that no candidate outside the two who are running has directly expressed interest in taking over the DCCC slot. Jeffries has until mid-February to nominate a candidate, but is expected to make a decision in the next couple of weeks. “Sooner rather than later“ he told us.
Democratic members have floated a number of potential contenders to us for DCCC chair, including Reps. Don Beyer (D-Va.), Derek Kilmer (D-Wash.), Terri Sewell (D-Ala.) and Suzan DelBene (D-Wash.).
Beyer – the DCCC’s finance chair since 2015 – told us “he’s happy to help Hakeem,” but he’s “not running against” Bera or Cárdenas. Beyer raised $6.7 million for DCCC this cycle, the most of any Democrat not in leadership.
“I love the DCCC,” Beyer said. “But Ami and Tony are both in line and seem to really want to do it. So as long as Hakeem is comfortable with either or both of them, that’s fine.”
Rep. Mark Pocan (D-Wis.) has also been suggested by other members. But Pocan told us he’s not interested in the job.
For his part, Bera told us he hadn’t heard about other names being floated for the DCCC post.
“I imagine that Hakeem is talking to both me and Tony,” Bera said. “It’s certainly his prerogative to see if there’s anyone else that’s interested.”
The discussion about another candidate for the role is evidence of how unhappy some Democrats are over the two available choices for DCCC chair. Unions have raised objections to Bera. And some members are also concerned about Cárdenas’ links to controversial figures in California politics, as well as allegations of child sexual abuse from a lawsuit that was subsequently dropped.
The DCCC role is a pretty thankless job, to be fair. The chair has to travel and fundraise constantly, all while taking cues from leadership on how to run the campaign arm.
The chair is also a prime target of both Republican attacks and internal Democratic gripes, especially if they’re not running the DCCC the way their colleagues want.
Plus, the last two chairs have had a tough time of it. Current Chair Sean Patrick Maloney (D-N.Y) lost his own election this November after an onslaught of GOP spending. And the previous chair, Rep. Cheri Bustos (D-Ill.), didn’t seek a second term following a controversial run where Democrats lost several seats despite expectations of significant gains.
Also: We are told Jeffries could announce his co-chairs for the influential Democratic Steering and Policy Committee later today. Currently there are three co-chairs – Reps. Barbara Lee (D-Calif.), Eric Swalwell (D-Calif.) and Bustos. But with Bustos retiring, there will be at least one new chair leading the panel.
— Max Cohen and Heather Caygle
DEMS, DISARRAY!
Torres asks GAO to ‘review’ Biden’s SEC after FTX collapse
News: Rep. Ritchie Torres (D-N.Y.) sent a letter to the Government Accountability Office Tuesday night asking the watchdog to “conduct an independent review” of the Securities Exchange Commission following the collapse of crypto exchange FTX last month.
Among Democrats, Torres is one of the House’s biggest proponents of the crypto sector, and this isn’t the first time the House Financial Services Committee member has criticized how regulators approach the industry.
But this week’s letter is a broadside against one of President Joe Biden’s highest-profile financial regulators: SEC Chair Gary Gensler. Torres wrote that Gensler had “fundamentally failed as a regulator” when it came to FTX.
Here’s an excerpt from the one-page letter addressed to GAO’s Comptroller General Gene Dodaro, which you can read here:
Advocates for the crypto sector have tried to argue that U.S. regulators are partly to blame for the spectacular implosion of FTX by not providing adequate “regulatory clarity” for the sector and pushing it abroad.
Many non-crypto folks, however, say federal authorities have been wise to keep crypto isolated and that industry attacks on the SEC remain unfounded.
Also of note: Torres was one of eight lawmakers to sign an earlier letter back in March – written by Rep. Tom Emmer (R-Minn.) – where the members suggested the SEC was being too aggressive towards crypto firms. The lawmakers recommended back then that the SEC not “overwhelm [crypto companies] with unnecessary or duplicative requests for information.”
Torres told us in a statement that while the March letter was about making sure the SEC was “efficient and focused,” the FTX collapse was evidence of “misplaced priorities” at the agency.
Either way, this is a direct attack from a sitting House Democrat against a Senate-confirmed regulator backed by the president. We’ll be monitoring the committee in the coming days for any sign that Torres’ concerns are shared by other lawmakers on his side of the aisle.
– Brendan Pedersen
PRESENTED BY BLUE CROSS BLUE SHIELD ASSOCIATION
We’re working to make health care more affordable and equitable, in every ZIP code, for the health of America.
WESTERN DROUGHT
New: Bipartisan group of western senators call on Vilsack to address drought
It’s not often Sen. Mike Lee (R-Utah) and Sen. Alex Padilla (D-Calif.) sign onto the same letter. But the massive drought wreaking havoc on the western United States doesn’t respect partisan boundaries. As a result, a bipartisan group of 15 senators are calling on Secretary of Agriculture Tom Vilsack to divert appropriate resources to the crisis.
Sens. Michael Bennet (D-Colo.) and Mitt Romney (R-Utah) are leading the effort, which also includes senators from Arizona, Washington, Nevada, New Mexico and Oregon.
Here’s an excerpt from the letter, where the senators “urge the USDA to give parity to the needs of our States as Western growers and communities face these dire conditions.”
The senators are also requesting briefings from USDA and other key government groups “to discuss their steps to assist farmers and ranchers in our states facing severe drought.”
Read the full letter here.
— Max Cohen
PRESENTED BY BLUE CROSS BLUE SHIELD ASSOCIATION
Making health care affordable and equitable, for the health of America.
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