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December 9, 2022
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THE TOP
Happy Friday morning.
Huge news: Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.) told CNN’s Jake Tapper, Politico’s Burgess Everett and the Arizona Republic that she will change her registration from Democratic to independent.
Sinema’s decision leaves Democrats in charge of the Senate but by a less comfortable margin than they hoped. Of course, Sinema more frequently sides with Democrats including on key nominations. But her leaving the Democratic Party gives Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) outsized sway once again.
Sinema is not addressing whether she will run for re-election in 2024. Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) is widely expected to challenge Sinema from the left.
Here’s a video from Sinema explaining her decision.
Inside the room: During a classified briefing Wednesday on Ukraine, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell stood up and offered a warning to Democratic senators and Biden administration officials – he won’t cave in to their demands on FY2023 spending.
McConnell told the attendees – who included Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo and Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines – that Republicans “weren’t going to pay a ransom” by trading more domestic spending for a boost in Pentagon funding. And this included if Democrats attempted to pass a continuing resolution covering all of next year at FY2022 levels.
McConnell’s broadside came after Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer had asked the Biden administration officials to describe how detrimental a full-year CR would be for national security and competition with China.
The closed-door exchange shows how intense the jockeying has become over government funding. Senate Republicans privately griped that Schumer scheduled the briefing in order to pressure GOP senators. Democrats counter that they’re just telling it like it is – a full-year CR would harm the Pentagon and deprive U.S. forces of badly needed money as Washington shifts its attention to the growing threat from China.
The current CR funding federal agencies expires on Dec. 16, and the two sides remain tens of billions of dollars apart on a “topline number” for FY2023.
House and Senate Democrats plan to offer their own draft omnibus package on Monday, as well as full-year CR, if there’s no deal before then. Democrats warn that if GOP leaders don’t agree to the omnibus plan, then Democrats will push the CR. Republicans won’t agree to either proposal.
McConnell also has a potentially big counter of his own – House Republicans take over on Jan. 3. President Joe Biden and Schumer are far less likely to reach a deal with House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy than they would with McConnell.
McConnell lectured Biden, Schumer and Speaker Nancy Pelosi during a White House meeting on Nov. 29 that he’s the only one who would pay a political price for supporting an omnibus spending deal, and they must listen to his concerns. McConnell will have to deliver at least 10 Senate GOP votes in order to pass it. So they’d better listen to what he’s saying.
The McConnell-McCarthy dynamic is shifting too. With the House GOP takeover looming, and McCarthy still short of the support he needs to be speaker, the California Republican has to take the toughest stance possible – even with McConnell.
During an appearance on Fox News earlier this week, McCarthy told Laura Ingraham “We’re 28 days away from Republicans having the gavel. We would be stronger in every negotiation, so any Republican that’s out there trying to work with them is wrong.” McCarthy acknowledged the criticism was aimed directly at McConnell.
The FY2023 spending fight comes as McConnell’s leadership is under intense scrutiny from his own colleagues in the wake of the dismal showing by Senate Republicans on Election Day. Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.) – under fire for his stewardship of the NRSC this cycle – challenged McConnell for GOP leader but was soundly defeated.
Conservative critics of McConnell inside the Senate GOP conference – including Scott – have called a meeting next Wednesday to discuss ways to more actively confront Democrats. These hardline Senate Republicans believe McConnell and the GOP leadership compromised too often with Democrats during this Congress, including on issues such as gun control and raising the debt limit. They want to know how McConnell will avoid doing more of the same thing next year.
McConnell aides and allies insist he’s not changing his leadership style or policy positions in spite of Scott’s challenge or any flak from his right. McConnell is as staunchly conservative as he’s ever been, they say. Nothing has changed.
But they acknowledge that with the 50-50 Senate split during the last two years, and Schumer’s threat to end the legislative filibuster, McConnell had to show moderate Sinema and Joe Manchin (W.Va.) the Senate could function effectively. Now that threat is gone, and McConnell can resume his traditional role as Democrats’ biggest antagonist.
Senate Republicans have seen some shifts from McConnell recently. For instance, McConnell refused to tell Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) what his position was on repealing the Covid vaccine mandate for military service members. This came despite repeated questioning by Paul during a GOP conference meeting several weeks ago, according to several Republican senators. The following week, McConnell told Senate Republicans that he wouldn’t let the annual defense authorization bill pass without the repeal provision.That language was included in the bipartisan NDAA deal.
McConnell will soon break the late Sen. Mike Mansfield’s (D-Mont.) record for the longest-serving party leader, in part because he can read his conference so well. Right now, Senate Republicans are a pretty sour bunch, and they’re not really in the mood for compromises. This is all playing into the omnibus impasse.
We still think there will be a bipartisan deal on government funding. There’s too much both sides can lose if they don’t. But it hasn’t been simple or easy, and the endgame won’t be either.
– John Bresnahan
THE QUEST FOR 218
Conservatives have demands for McCarthy
A group of conservative Republicans has issued a new series of demands for the next Republican speaker of the House — whoever that is.
The letter was from Reps. Scott Perry (Pa.), Chip Roy (Texas), Dan Bishop (N.C.), Andrew Clyde (Ga.) and Paul Gosar (Ariz.) and Reps.-elect Eli Crane (Ariz.) and Andy Ogles (Tenn.).
To be clear: This letter doesn’t mention House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy specifically. Yet it is aimed directly at him.
None of these Republicans has come out publicly in opposition to McCarthy. But with only a four-seat margin heading into the next Congress, and four Republicans already considered hard “no” votes against McCarthy – Reps. Bob Good (Va.), Matt Gaetz (Fla.), Andy Biggs (Ariz.) and Matt Rosendale (Mont.) – the GOP leader can’t afford to lose any more votes. So conservatives have enormous leverage right now. We scooped in our PM edition that Gaetz met with McCarthy yesterday afternoon and is still a no.
The gist of the conservatives’ letter is this:
| → | The group wants a restoration of the “motion to vacate,” the mechanism by which one member of the House can trigger a vote on ousting the speaker. McCarthy has been firmly against this. Conservatives used this motion to force former Speaker John Boehner out in 2015, and then kept it as a threat over Paul Ryan’s head. |
| → | They’re seeking 72 hours to review every bill and for the House Rules Committee to allow votes on germane amendments. |
| → | They want the GOP leadership and their affiliated political organizations to forgo involvement in any Republican primaries. |
There are a number of other requests, but those are a lot more pedestrian.
Perry, Roy and Bishop met with McCarthy Thursday afternoon before this letter came out.
Sitting here today, we imagine that McCarthy will have to give a bit on the “motion to vacate.” He’s drawn a hard line in opposition to this move, but it’s become a major sticking point for conservative hardliners. McCarthy is going to have to find a middle ground. Maybe he’ll try to raise the threshold to trigger the motion.
The 72-hour rule is easy, for the most part.
McCarthy can take a pass on saying whether he’d get involved in primaries. Outside groups make spending decisions and McCarthy has some distance from that.
But for party leaders, it’s a tough call. The NRSC under Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.) didn’t get involved in any primaries. It’s a critical issue for Scott, and he took a firm line on it. But Senate Republicans also failed to knock off any vulnerable Senate Democratic incumbents despite a good political landscape. Poor candidates were a key reason for this failure.
To illustrate the sensitivity of McCarthy’s situation, Clyde released an additional statement after the letter was released.
In other words, Clyde wants you to know that this isn’t aimed just at McCarthy, but rather anyone who is seeking the speakership.
– Jake Sherman
FUNDING FIGHT
McDonough says CR would hurt veterans
Veteran Affairs Secretary Denis McDonough sent a letter to Hill leadership and top lawmakers on the House and Senate Appropriations committees warning of the dangers of a yearlong CR for veterans’ funding.
This comes after Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and other national security officials have also cautioned Congress that extending FY2022 spending levels through Sept. 30 would be damaging to the Pentagon. Congress has never done this before, they note.
McDonough served as former President Barack Obama’s final White House chief of staff, so he has experience dealing with divided government and the pressures that brings.
McDonough warns that a CR “would cause an estimated $10.7 billion shortfall for VA.”
Of course, party leaders and appropriators all understand the risk of a CR and their goal is to avoid it – if possible.
But the reality is that Republicans and Democrats remain tens of billions of dollars apart in their negotiations to find a topline spending number. Time is short: government funding runs out Dec. 16, just one week from today. Congress is likely to pass a one-week stopgap to give more time for negotiations
Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer have advised Republicans that they will have to revert to a yearlong CR if they can’t find agreement on a topline spending figure very soon.
– Jake Sherman
THE FINDINGS
Punchbowl News hosted our first Punch Up summit — The Findings — yesterday at the Martin Luther King Jr. Library to bring together leaders in the racial equity and sustainability space.
Here are highlights from the summit:
| → | In a keynote address, Arndrea Waters King discussed Martin Luther King Jr.’s legacy as the nation approaches the 60th anniversary of the March on Washington and King’s “I have a dream” speech. |
Waters King said she and her husband, Martin Luther King III, are committed to raising more than $100 million by 2024 to go directly to 40 organizations helmed by Black and Brown Americans.
Here’s more from Waters King on how MLK should be honored:
| → | Our racial equity cohort said that individuals striving for racial equity should understand there is no defined end point for this work. The cohort members added that setting incremental, yet still meaningful, milestones can set organizations and individuals up for success. |
Rick Wade, a senior vice president at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, added that he regularly discusses the financial benefits of inclusion efforts with CEOs. Wade also said from a personal standpoint, he doesn’t expect people from different backgrounds to “walk in his shoes.” But that doesn’t mean people can’t foster understanding from each other.
| → | In our conversation with members from the sustainability cohort, there was a prevailing sense of relief that Congress passed major climate legislation this year. The Inflation Reduction Act included more than $360 billion to address climate change. |
Laura Haynes Gillam, a senior policy adviser for clean air and climate on the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee, noted how she has worked for decades on environmental policy, facing many obstacles along the way. Haynes Gillam said staffers never gave up hope on getting climate legislation through the Senate – scoring incremental wins over the years before hitting a “home run” with passage of the Inflation Reduction Act earlier this year.
“Like water, we find a way,” she said.
| → | We also heard from climate activists Adam Met and Kristy Drutman on intersectionality, why environmental justice should be a cornerstone to all sustainability efforts and the importance of reaching across generations to look for solutions. |
“There’s wisdom to learn on both sides. I think that’s really important and doesn’t happen enough,” Drutman said of encouraging intergenerational conversations around sustainability.
Check out photos from the event.
We’ll have much more on The Findings in a special edition newsletter next week!
— Donna Baeck and Max Cohen
PRESENTED BY BLUE CROSS BLUE SHIELD ASSOCIATION
We’re working to make health care more affordable and equitable, in every ZIP code, for the health of America.
THE CAMPAIGN
| → | Democracy Pac II reported a $50 million contribution from George Soros in its post-election report. Soros also gave $261,412 to the Warnock Victory Fund on Nov. 17. |
| → | Miriam Adelson gave CLF, the House GOP super PAC, $2.5 million Oct. 20. Ken Griffin, the CEO of Citadel and a major GOP donor, gave $2 million to CLF Oct. 31. |
– Jake Sherman
PRESENTED BY BLUE CROSS BLUE SHIELD ASSOCIATION
Making health care affordable and equitable, for the health of America.
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Presented by Wells Fargo
At Wells Fargo, we cover more rural markets than many large banks, and nearly 30% of our branches are in low- or moderate-income census tracts. What we say, we do. See how.