The Archive
Every issue of the Punchbowl News newsletter, including our special editions, right here at your fingertips.
Join the community, and get the morning edition delivered straight to your inbox.
January 3, 2023
Presented by AARP
48 million family caregivers give everything to help older loved ones. They give time and energy, too often giving up their jobs and paying over $7,000 a year out of pocket. With a new Congress, it’s time to act on the Credit for Caring tax credit.
PRESENTED BY
THE TOP
Happy Tuesday morning. Today is Punchbowl News’ second birthday. Thank you for being a part of our community and supporting our mission, which is to provide in-depth, second-to-none reporting about “Power, People and Politics” in Washington.
On Kevin McCarthy. Today is the 16th anniversary of Kevin McCarthy first being sworn in as a member of Congress. And he’ll head to the floor this afternoon to stand for speaker with some of his closest allies privately fretting that he could lose.
McCarthy and his top aides remain optimistic that, given enough time, they can beat back the roughly dozen hardline conservative Republicans threatening his candidacy. McCarthy told reporters on Monday that today will be exciting and “good,” although he didn’t elaborate on why.
“There will be 218 votes, hopefully on the first ballot,” said Rep. Tom Emmer (R-Minn.), the incoming majority whip. “Kevin McCarthy will be the speaker.”
One McCarthy ally told us this: “For every one of them, there’s 15 of us. Kevin is going nowhere. It’s gonna turn into shirts and skins.” In other words, Team McCarthy won’t be held hostage to a tiny minority of disaffected conservatives. McCarthy plans to stick it out as long as it takes, they say.
Yet privately, some of the lawmakers closest to McCarthy continue to tell us that they don’t see a path for the California Republican to win the speakership. Not on the first ballot, or the second, or any subsequent ballots. Some McCarthy backers – lawmakers and aides in and outside the leadership – don’t believe he can or should stay on the floor for more than two rounds of votes before bowing out. One close ally of McCarthy pegged his chances of winning the speakership at 5%.
This isn’t to say that McCarthy can’t win. He can. McCarthy continued to negotiate with conservative hardliners into Monday evening, seeking a way to overcome their opposition.
And before House Republicans take to the floor today, McCarthy will hold a closed-party meeting in the Capitol basement to rally support. Could McCarthy cave on the motion to vacate, restoring the rule that would allow any member of the House to call a vote of no confidence against the speaker? It’s possible, and perhaps it could win some votes.
But McCarthy is also running out of cards to play. In an even more troublesome sign, no matter what McCarthy gives away, hardline conservatives aren’t moving to his corner. In fact, they’re becoming more dug in against him.
Rep. Scott Perry (R-Pa.), a key player in this drama, made McCarthy a proposal Monday evening for a number of additional changes to the House rules. Perry and the half-dozen conservatives backing him have won nearly every concession they’ve sought so far. Remember: The Freedom Caucus is pushing for the conference to adhere to a “majority of the majority,” yet they are a tiny percentage making these demands.
Perry’s offer included the House Freedom Caucus’ ability to place their members on committees before the speaker election, according to sources familiar with the proposal.
McCarthy didn’t see Perry’s proposal as feasible, these sources added. Furthermore, McCarthy insiders say they made little progress with Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.), who is also opposing the California Republican’s candidacy.
“I never said I was a no,” Perry told us following a Monday night meeting with McCarthy. “I’m trying to be an honest broker between a guy that wants to be speaker and folks that have trust issues with him. So I’m reserving what my vote will be until we’re voting on the floor.”
The process here is important. If McCarthy fails to get 218 votes – or a majority of those members present and voting for a named candidate – on the first ballot, Republicans have a few options. The House can move to a second ballot and try to elect a speaker again. The chamber can vote to adjourn to a time certain, although that could be subject to a vote of the full House. Or a member could offer a resolution to change the rules of the speaker election to a secret ballot or alter the threshold by which a speaker is chosen. These last two are longshots, but keep these options in mind.
McCarthy, though, can’t allow the chamber to recess, backers say. Letting members gather to plot and commiserate could be his immediate undoing.
If McCarthy goes to a second ballot and doesn’t improve his vote total, there will be pressure from some of his colleagues to bow out. McCarthy can keep members on the floor voting for the speaker as long as he has a majority of support to do so. Taking a break will require a vote.
What we can say for sure is that today’s process could take a while. It will be messy. It will be historic – a speaker’s race hasn’t gone to a second ballot in a century. And it will mean that the 118th Congress could begin in utter chaos, handing the large Democratic minority a useful talking point that Republicans should not be trusted with power.
McCarthy, like many members of Congress who reach the heights of the leadership ladder, is obsessed with winning. What keeps McCarthy going is besting his opponents when no one expects it.
McCarthy bounced back after dropping out of the speaker’s race in 2015, becoming House majority leader and helping navigate the chaotic Trump presidency. He helped lead Republicans to gains two cycles in a row, despite falling short of projections in 2022.
But today we’ll find out whether McCarthy’s career will end in a stinging defeat. Or whether, as John Boehner used to say, he’ll live to fight another day.
– Jake Sherman and John Bresnahan
THE BACK UPS
If McCarthy falls, then what?
If Kevin McCarthy fails to win the speakership – meaning he bows out and no longer is seeking the job – there will be a rush to fill the leadership vacuum. We wanted to run down a few of the potential scenarios we foresee.
Steve Scalise: The incoming House majority leader – long a friend/rival to McCarthy – would be a natural fallback option for the Republican Conference. The Louisiana Republican is in leadership already and has the infrastructure in place to whip and win votes.
Scalise has made clear he’s backing McCarthy and kept a low profile throughout the last few weeks. Yet by Monday, there was active discussion of what a Scalise speakership could mean.
But Rep. Don Bacon (Neb.), a leading GOP moderate, said something interesting to us Monday night in the Capitol. Bacon said he and some moderate colleagues would consider supporting a challenger against Scalise if it comes to that. Here’s Bacon:
Bacon said his plan is to rally around a former member of Congress to serve in the role. Bacon declined to say whether he was considering throwing his support to retiring Rep. Fred Upton (R-Mich.), which is what most GOP insiders assume. We don’t truly see that as a viable option, but it demonstrates the frustration and discontent in the conference. Now, we’re miles away from this situation, but it’s worth keeping Bacon’s thinking in mind.
Patrick McHenry: The North Carolina Republican is set to chair the Financial Services Committee. McHenry passed on a run for majority whip because he didn’t want to be in the leadership – you can now see why! But if Scalise can’t make it and there are no other options, you may see some Republicans start to float McHenry as a possibility.
Jim Jordan: Let’s start with this – moderates would have to swallow a big pill to vote for Ohio Rep. Jim Jordan for speaker. Plus, Jordan has pined to be chair of the Judiciary Committee, where he will serve next Congress. Jordan told us on two different occasions Monday that he has no interest in being speaker. But conservatives have longed for a Speaker Jordan. And, again, House Republicans would be in uncharted territory.
A caretaker: What if Republicans are convinced that, for the time being, they need a steady hand atop of the chamber until they can get themselves in line? Some GOP lawmakers will start talking about Republicans such as Oklahoma Reps. Frank Lucas or Tom Cole.
In 1998, after then Speaker Newt Gingrich (R-Ga.) stepped aside and Rep. Bob Livingston’s (R-La.) candidacy for the post collapsed in scandal, Republicans threw their support to Rep. Dennis Hastert (R-Ill.), who ended up becoming the longest-serving GOP speaker in history. But we all know how that ended.
The least likely option: The biggest fear among McCarthy allies is that five moderate Republicans – think incoming Rep. Mike Lawler of New York, Bacon and Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick of Pennsylvania – band together with Democrats to elect a “unity speaker.” We don’t see this as possible at this moment.
Rep. Hakeem Jeffries (N.Y.), who will be House minority leader, also is decidedly unenthusiastic about this effort. Jeffries told reporters his plan is to keep Democrats together behind him.
“It’s my hope that every single Democrat will support my candidacy after Pete Aguilar puts my name into nomination,” Jeffries said. “We’re focused right now on making sure every single Democrat is present and voting, and I hope to be able to earn everyone’s vote.”
– Jake Sherman and John Bresnahan
THE UPPER CHAMBER
McConnell to become longest-serving party leader in Senate history
There is one Republican leader celebrating today. Mitch McConnell will officially break the late Sen. Mike Mansfield’s (D-Mont.) record as the longest-serving Senate leader ever. McConnell, who has led Senate Republicans since 2007, is scheduled to give a lengthy speech on the Senate floor this afternoon, we’re told, during which he’ll pay tribute to Mansfield.
McConnell has been a lightning rod in American politics for decades, but his supporters and detractors largely agree on his legacy — principally as the architect of a rightward shift in the federal judiciary, from district courts all the way up to the Supreme Court.
Here’s an excerpt from McConnell’s prepared remarks, expected in the noon hour. The speech is heavy on Senate history and Mansfield in particular, who served as Democratic leader from 1961 to 1977.
McConnell has done this before when he’s broken a record, including when he surpassed Wendell Ford as the longest-serving Kentucky senator, Alben Barkley as the longest-serving party leader from Kentucky and Bob Dole as longest-serving GOP leader.
This latest milestone comes just weeks after McConnell easily fended off a challenge for his leadership post from restive conservatives led by Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.). The McConnell opposition was driven by a belief that Senate GOP leaders weren’t doing enough to push back on President Joe Biden’s agenda and delivered the deciding votes for key White House priorities including the omnibus spending bill, infrastructure funding and gun control.
And in a sign that McConnell is unfazed by the challenge to his job — and his GOP opponents’ demands — he’s scheduled to appear with Biden at an event in Kentucky tomorrow focused on infrastructure.
In and out: After concluding its business today — the swearing-in of new and re-elected senators and passage of housekeeping resolutions — the Senate will go back on recess until Jan. 23.
After senators are sworn in, the chamber will have its first quorum call and adopt a resolution naming Sen. Patty Murray (D-Wash.) as president pro tempore. The Senate will then pass additional procedural measures and promptly adjourn for nearly three weeks.
—Andrew Desiderio
PRESENTED BY BOEING
Boeing’s commitment to veterans is part of who we are. Together with our partners, we support hundreds of programs for veterans and their families.
DEMS IN ARRAY
House Dem leadership staff news
House Democratic leadership is staffing up and we have all the details.
Let’s start with this: Keith Stern, the highly respected director of floor operations for Speaker Nancy Pelosi, will join Rep. Katherine Clark’s (D-Mass.) office, multiple sources tell us. Clark will serve as House minority whip in the 118th Congress.
Now onto Rep. Pete Aguilar (D-Calif.), the House Democratic Caucus chair.
Sonali Desai will be the executive director of the House Democratic Caucus. Desai was most recently chief of staff to Rep. Judy Chu (D-Calif.), who chairs the Congressional Asian Pacific American Caucus.
Courtney Fry is the new director of member services for the caucus. Fry was floor director for outgoing House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer in the previous Congress and is a familiar face to many around the Capitol. This is a big get for Team Aguilar.
Alyssa Mensie, Justin Oh and Laura Muñoz Lopez will move over from the vice chair office and continue working in member services.
Victoria Rivas will be policy director and Wellesley Michael will serve as digital director. Becky Cornell will continue as Aguilar’s leadership chief of staff and Owen Kilmer will continue as Aguilar’s communications director.
ICYMI: House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries also announced his senior staff on Monday.
Tasia Jackson will be chief of staff, Gideon Bragin will be executive director, Emily Noriega-May will serve as deputy chief of staff for operations and Wayne Williams will serve as deputy chief of staff for engagement.
Other Jeffries staff announcements include Zoë Oreck as policy director, Stephanie Palencia as director of outreach, Moh Sharma as director of member services, Christie Stephenson as communications director, Nd Ubezonu as floor director and Emily Berret as executive director of the transition. Longtime Democratic aide George Kundanis will serve as a senior adviser, as well as Drew Sachse.
Kundanis has been a fixture in Democratic leadership, having served at the top rung of the party since the late 1970s. No one knows the House Democratic Caucus like Kudanis.
— Max Cohen
OPPO WATCH
New: The Democratic group House Accountability War Room is launching a six-figure effort to promote an opposition research document on 39 current and incoming House Republicans.
The congressional directory, labeled MAGA Guidebook, will be distributed to member offices on the Hill, Metro stations and neighborhood spots around Capitol Hill. The guidebook will also be promoted on billboards around D.C.
As the House prepares to swear in new members and vote on its speaker today, the effort is an example of how outside progressive groups are taking aim at the new Republican majority.
Among the members highlighted are incoming GOP Reps.-elect George Santos (N.Y.), Derrick Van Orden (Wis.), Eli Crane (Ariz.), Andy Ogles (Tenn.), Anna Paulina Luna (Fla.) and Cory Mills (Fla.). The book also features Reps. Marjorie Taylor Greene (Ga.), Matt Gaetz (Fla.), Andy Biggs (Ariz.), and Scott Perry (Pa.).
— Max Cohen
DOWNTOWN DOWNLOAD
Brownstein gets new government relations head
Brownstein Hyatt Farber Schreck has tapped Nadeam Elshami and Will Moschella to run their government relations team, putting new faces atop the top grossing lobbying practice in D.C.
Marc Lampkin, who previously led the team for the past 10 years, will focus on business development and client services, the firm is going to announce today.
Elshami is a very familiar face on Capitol Hill. He led Nancy Pelosi’s communications operation before becoming the California Democrat’s chief of staff.
Moschella worked in senior roles at the Justice Department and on the House Judiciary Committee.
– Jake Sherman
Crucial Capitol Hill news AM, Midday, and PM—5 times a week
Join a community of some of the most powerful people in Washington and beyond. Exclusive newsmaker events, parties, in-person and virtual briefings and more.
Subscribe to Premium
The Canvass Year-End Report
And what senior aides and downtown figures believe will happen in 2023.
Check it outEvery single issue of Punchbowl News published, all in one place
Visit the archive
Presented by AARP
48 million family caregivers give everything to help older loved ones. They give time and energy, too often giving up their jobs and paying over $7,000 a year out of pocket. With a new Congress, it’s time to act on the Credit for Caring tax credit.