Dems are splitting on how to confront Trump on Venezuela

IN THIS EDITION

Dems splinter on how to confront Trump over Venezuela

Congress heads toward another ACA showdown

Vault: Tim Scott’s crypto leap of faith

Trump’s Greenland fixation causes GOP angst

THE TOP

Dems splinter on how to confront Trump over Venezuela

Happy Wednesday morning.

New: Democrats are reluctant to embrace their most bare-knuckled tool to prevent President Donald Trump from launching further military operations against Venezuela or other nations.

Instead of threatening to hold up or even block government funding bills, Democrats are opting for a vote on a war powers resolution that, while politically significant, will be largely symbolic.

Lawmakers are staring down a Jan. 30 deadline to fund defense and diplomatic programs or face a partial government shutdown. Some Democrats want to use that must-pass legislation to demand language curtailing future military action against Venezuela or elsewhere.

But those Democrats are decidedly in the minority, with many more — even those most ardently opposed to Trump’s foreign policy moves — fearful that it’ll unravel the already-delicate funding process.

“That seems a bit like a fool’s errand,” Sen. Tina Smith (D-Minn.) said of trying to use the appropriations process to block Trump. “What’s the likelihood that we would get approval of that?”

“I think what we need to do is to focus on getting the appropriations bills passed,” added Rep. Rosa DeLauro (Conn.), top Democrat on the House Appropriations Committee. “We’re on a good track with getting the appropriations bills done. And that’s what we keep our focus on.”

Democratic senators insist that Thursday’s vote on Sen. Tim Kaine’s (D-Va.) war powers resolution is their best avenue to push back against Trump’s newfound military adventurism.

“If we have a war powers vote, I’m not sure we need a second one related to it,” added Sen. Brian Schatz (D-Hawaii), who will be the next party whip and is the top Democrat on the State Department funding panel. “We’re gonna get a war powers resolution, and that’s more on-point.”

This dynamic is a reflection of a few distinct realities on Capitol Hill.

The first is that Democrats really don’t want to flirt with another shutdown — over Venezuela or anything else. Democrats instigated the longest shutdown in U.S. history last year over health care, but they ended up folding without securing their initial demands.

The other is that Congress has so dramatically abdicated its authority over the use of military force. This has been a decades-long trend spanning presidential administrations of both parties, resulting in an executive branch that’s increasingly emboldened to do what it wants first and then tell Congress later.

But the latter is exactly why some Democrats feel so strongly about pulling every possible lever to rein in Trump’s warmaking powers.

“What are we here for, as Democrats, if not to try to use the appropriations process to stop disasters from happening?” said Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.), an appropriator. “If there is any chance of an invasion or a long-term occupation of Venezuela, of course we should be arguing for a rider in the appropriations process to stop that.”

However, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer said he wants to prioritize the war powers effort.

“If we can pass that — and it only needs two more votes, it got two Republican votes last time — all future action that they do in Venezuela could stop,” Schumer said on Tuesday. “That’s our number one focus. That’s the best thing to do right now.”

Schumer is right that Democrats only need a handful of Republicans to join them in order to pass Kaine’s war powers resolution, which only requires a simple majority. Prior efforts have come up just short. But even if Kaine’s measure passes, it would largely be a symbolic rebuke.

That’s because even if the House passes the resolution, Trump would veto it, and there wouldn’t be nearly enough votes to reach the two-thirds threshold to override the veto.

That’s not to say there isn’t any value for Democrats in forcing these votes, which Kaine says he intends to pursue for Greenland, Cuba, Colombia and others. Trump has mused about using military force against all of these nations and territories in the days since the president ordered an operation that captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro.

“There’s no reason for this to delay appropriations unless people are afraid to go on record and vote on whether or not they support military funding for a war in Venezuela,” Kaine said.

Indeed, Kaine’s Venezuela effort could pass on Thursday. Sens. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) and Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) backed a previous war powers resolution centered on the boat strikes, and other Republicans could join them.

Many Republicans have been waiting to comment on Trump’s Venezuela move until after today’s Senate-wide briefing with top administration officials. This includes GOP senators who have sometimes been amenable to previous war powers efforts.

“We’ve taken pretty decisive action, and now the question is, what’s that going to lead to? What’s the next step? And I just don’t know the answers to that. I have a lot of questions,” Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) said, adding that he believes U.S. boots on the ground in Venezuela or Greenland or elsewhere would require congressional authorization.

Power of the purse. Other Democrats are sympathetic to Murphy’s position. Sen. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) supports pressing the issue as part of the appropriations process. Gallego has an amendment to the defense bill aimed at preventing a U.S. military takeover of Greenland.

“At what point are the Republicans going to say Trump has gone too far?” asked Sen. Peter Welch (D-Vt.), who’s also aligned with Murphy. “At what point are the Republicans saying we’ve got to stop ceding our constitutional responsibility to the executive? We haven’t reached that limit yet, and it’s pretty shocking.”

Republicans believe they’ll be able to move past the Democratic effort, arguing the impetus for policy riders tied to current events pops up annually.

“If it wasn’t Venezuela, it’d be something else,” Sen. John Hoeven (R-N.D.), a senior Appropriator, said. “We’re used to it.”

— Andrew Desiderio, Anthony Adragna and Samantha Handler

Cheers to five years: Punchbowl News turned five this week! To celebrate, we’re bringing back a cocktail challenge from our first anniversary. Make your own Hometown Sour that represents where you’re from as a cocktail or mocktail and submit the video by Jan. 23. See more details here.

HEALTH CARE

Congress heads toward another ACA showdown

Congress’ health care battle continues on Wednesday when the House will take its first procedural vote on the Democratic discharge petition to extend the ACA enhanced premium tax credits for three years.

The procedural motion will pass. And the bill is expected to pass later this week. Four House Republicans signed the petition, hoping it would reignite Senate momentum toward an Obamacare deal after a pair of health care votes failed in the chamber last month.

Those hopes seem to be playing out, although there are still big obstacles to a deal and a very limited window to secure it. Open enrollment for ACA plans ends Jan. 15. Millions of Americans are already seeing their costs skyrocket or losing coverage entirely.

“The half-life of an opportunity for an agreement is, every week you lose about 50%,” Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) said Tuesday.

Obstacles to a deal. Any Senate agreement is likely to resemble the compromise plans moderates released late last year: a short-term extension with income caps and a minimum premium requirement. House Problem Solvers Caucus members and senators are set to meet Thursday to discuss details.

The dealmakers still face significant political hurdles and policy disputes.

Senate Majority Leader John Thune said Tuesday any agreement that could get significant GOP backing would have to mandate minimum premium payments, expand health savings accounts and address Republicans’ concerns about the Hyde Amendment. Democrats aren’t supportive of any of those policies.

Republicans’ desire for new Hyde Amendment language continues to be the single biggest hangup in bipartisan negotiations.

President Donald Trump told House Republicans they need to “be a little flexible on Hyde.” That’s close to sacrilegious for Republicans, who have for years guarded Hyde, which prevents taxpayer money from being spent on abortion services.

Some moderates hope Trump’s comments will soften Republicans’ insistence on Hyde protections. That seems a bit far-fetched.

But any compromise would need to get more than the bare minimum support from rank-and-file Senate Republicans for Thune to put it on the floor or attach it to a broader legislative vehicle.

“There’s potentially a path forward,” Thune said. “But it’s something that’d have to get a big vote, and certainly a big vote among Republicans.”

For now, Democratic leaders aren’t coming off their position that a three-year clean extension is the path forward — something the Senate already rejected.

Democrats have been under pressure from their base to put up a fight, and they’ve found political success on health care. That could shift if a deal is within reach and looks capable of passing.

“Our mission right now is to make sure that we pass the straightforward extension of the Affordable Care Act tax credits this week, and then we’ll navigate the Senate dynamics thereafter,” House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries said.

— Laura Weiss, Max Cohen and Andrew Desiderio

Vault: Tim Scott’s crypto leap of faith

Senate Banking Committee Chair Tim Scott (R-S.C.) is making the biggest gamble of his time atop the panel — scheduling a markup of landmark crypto market structure legislation next Thursday without the clear-cut support of key Democrats and Republicans.

Congress often needs a deadline to get stuff done. But the challenges here are unusually stark.

Publicly, many senators at the center of these talks continue to project optimism. The reality, however, is that without significant breakthroughs in the next few days, the effort to incorporate digital assets into the regulated financial system could die in committee. Time is running out before midterm season lands on the Capitol.

The goal remains a bipartisan deal with Senate Democrats to get 60 votes on the floor. But the math has been complicated by GOP infighting.

— Sen. John Kennedy (R-La.), a process skeptic who has called for more public hearings on the policy, told us Tuesday afternoon the effort was in “jeopardy.”

— Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) spoke at length during Tuesday’s meeting about the need to limit third-party stablecoin yield in market structure, while Sen. Bernie Moreno (R-Ohio) told reporters afterwards that reopening stablecoin law would mean “we’re not gonna have a bipartisan bill.”

— Shortly before Scott publicly confirmed his markup plans, Sen. Mike Rounds (R-S.D.) said he was in no rush to advance the bill:

Zero yield. Politically, the hardest issue to resolve may now be the legal treatment of stablecoin yield among third parties like crypto exchanges. Banks are mounting an all-out lobbying blitz to effectively halt the practice. Crypto disagrees. Both have nine-figure super PACs ready to go in 2026.

Key Republicans, including Tillis and Kennedy, told us Tuesday that addressing stablecoin yield specifically was crucial. “It’s important,” Kennedy said of yield policy. “The bill’s in jeopardy if we don’t work something out.”

Temperature check. We asked Sen. Cynthia Lummis (R-Wyo.), who recently announced her retirement, what would happen if Banking punts its January markup later in the year.

“I will probably consider harakiri,” Lummis said, laughing. “I’m sorry, that wasn’t funny. I just can’t contemplate working this hard for five years on something and have it just not happen.”

– Brendan Pedersen

DEFENSE

Trump’s Greenland fixation causes GOP angst

President Donald Trump’s open flirtation to acquire Greenland — with or without U.S. troops — is drawing pushback from within GOP ranks on Capitol Hill.

“It’s not going to happen,” said Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Pa.) repeatedly, when asked about Trump’s floated plans.

“It’s appalling,” Rep. Don Bacon (R-Neb.) told us. “These are our allies.”

The Republican resistance came after White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said in a Tuesday statement that “acquiring Greenland is a national security priority” and that Trump’s team is “discussing a range of options to pursue this important foreign policy goal, and of course, utilizing the U.S. Military is always an option.”

House Armed Services Committee Chair Mike Rogers (R-Ala.) said he wasn’t sure what Trump has in mind. But Rogers noted he’d be opposed to any action that could jeopardize NATO.

“My guess is this is him priming the pump to make some offer toward the Greenlanders to connect with us in a stronger way, but I don’t know,” Rogers said of Trump.

The topic did not come up during an earlier Tuesday conference meeting that House Republicans had with Trump, Speaker Mike Johnson said.

And while Johnson said targeting Greenland is “not on my ‘things to do’ list,” he acknowledged the Arctic island and Danish territory “is viewed by a lot of people as something that would be a strategic positioning for the U.S.”

Over in the Senate, multiple GOP senators welcomed Trump’s possible action in countries like Cuba and Colombia but indicated stepping into Greenland was a “different deal.”

“Trump’s asking, what’s the legal relationship we’re gonna have if you want us to invest heavily in Greenland and more money and more technology, more military basing,” Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) said.

Some Democrats warned the situation could damage relationships with allies.

“On one level, it’s embarrassing. On another level, it’s just scary,” said Rep. Jim McGovern (D-Mass.), who’s prepping a war powers resolution on Venezuela. “These guys are deranged. This is more than a difference over policy. These guys are just out of their minds.”

– Anthony Adragna, Briana Reilly, John Bresnahan and Jake Sherman

THE CAMPAIGN

News: VoteVets, the group dedicated to electing veteran Democrats, is endorsing Zach Beecher in New Jersey’s 11th District. Beecher served as an Army paratrooper in Iraq and is seeking to replace former Rep. Mikie Sherrill in Congress. The crowded Democratic primary features 12 candidates.

— Max Cohen

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