The Archive

IN THIS EDITION

House GOP gets a win on budget plan, but what’s next?

New Dems raise concerns about too many progressives joining

Fedorchak tries to make her mark with energy-for-AI group

Will Buttigieg’s out-of-state past be an issue in Michigan Senate race?

ICYMI: Hern on tax negotiations

THE TOP

House GOP gets a win on budget plan, but what’s next?

Happy Friday morning.

After 12 hours of debate and the defeat of dozens of Democratic amendments, Republicans on the House Budget Committee approved a GOP budget resolution late Thursday night that’s designed to unlock President Donald Trump’s legislative agenda.

The question now is will it be enough?

House Budget Committee Chair Jodey Arrington’s (R-Texas) budget plan — the result of weeks of grueling internal negotiations — calls for at least $1.5 trillion in spending cuts, as well as $4.5 trillion for tax cuts. It boosts the debt limit by $4 trillion and includes provisions providing $300 billion for increased defense and border security spending.

Plus, Republicans amended the resolution in Thursday’s markup to shrink the scope of tax cuts if the GOP doesn’t come up with at least $2 trillion in spending cuts. That’s more in line with what the House Freedom Caucus and deficit hawks have been seeking.

Getting the budget resolution through committee is a critical win for Arrington and the House GOP leadership, especially Speaker Mike Johnson. It’s one they desperately needed to keep pace with the Senate’s competing reconciliation push. House GOP leaders plan to bring their measure to the floor following the week-long Presidents Day recess.

“This is the start of the process, and we remain laser-focused on ultimately sending a bill to President Trump’s desk which, among other things, secures the border, keeps taxes low for families and job creators, restores American energy dominance, and makes government work better for all Americans,” Johnson, House Majority Leader Steve Scalise, Majority Whip Tom Emmer and Republican Conference Chair Lisa McClain said in a statement.

Led by Rep. Brendan Boyle (D-Pa.), ranking member on the Budget panel, Democrats bashed the proposal throughout Thursday’s markup as “cruel,” “heartless,” “toxic” and harmful to low-income families in particular by slashing Medicaid, food stamps and other social safety net programs.

House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries called the GOP proposal “a betrayal of the middle class that will hurt middle-class Americans and hurt everyday Americans, children, seniors and veterans by devastating Medicaid.”

And despite the House Budget Committee’s action, Senate Republicans are still leaning toward bringing their own budget resolution to the floor next week, according to GOP senators and aides. That would put House and Senate Republicans on a collision course in the apparently endless “one bill vs. two bill” debate. While that may seem like a tedious process question from the outside, it could have a major impact on what GOP congressional leaders and Trump can actually turn into law.

Senate Budget Committee Chair Lindsey Graham’s (R-S.C.) panel approved a “skinny” budget resolution on Wednesday that boosts defense and border security spending by more than $300 billion over four years. It also calls for changes in energy policy and will be fully offset by cuts in mandatory spending. Graham’s resolution requires authorizing committees to submit their reports to his panel by March 7. Those would then be assembled into one package and sent to the floor.

But first, the Senate has to pass the underlying budget resolution, and that’s a week-long procedure. Under Senate rules, there will be up to 50 hours of floor debate on the resolution followed by a vote-a-rama, where Democrats could offer dozens of politically charged amendments. Final passage is just a simple majority vote.

With so much at stake, why can’t House and Senate Republicans get on the same page? We’ll explain:

(1) House GOP leaders have been adamant about putting all of the GOP’s (meaning Trump’s) priorities in a single reconciliation bill out of fear that a second package would be too hard to pass with their razor-thin majority.

Now that it’s through a markup, the House GOP budget resolution seems to be in a good spot for a floor vote.

However, the House is out for 10 days. This gives Democrats plenty of time to go on the offensive over the massive social safety net cuts needed to meet spending-reduction targets in the blueprint and extend the Trump tax cuts. That’s a real opportunity for Democrats.

(2) Some GOP senators have been making the case that they need to swallow whatever the House can pass because the vote margin there is so tight. But that’s not a universal sentiment.

Lurking under the surface of House Republicans’ budget resolution are a whole set of tough policy decisions that could get extremely fraught, such as competing tax priorities and huge Medicaid cuts. Those fights will play out as House Republicans craft their actual reconciliation bill.

The Senate also isn’t seeing definitive proof that the House is in for smooth sailing from here on out. To be fair, it would be hard to prove that with this small of a House majority.

It also may be a long wait for border security and Pentagon funding under the House approach, while Senate Republicans want to move fast on their two-bill plan.

(3) Key Republican tax writers and Senate Majority Leader John Thune put down a marker on Thursday that they’ll oppose a tax package that falls short of making the Trump tax cuts permanent. The Trump administration wants this too. That’s not very feasible under the House’s budget blueprint.

House Ways and Means Committee Chair Jason Smith (R-Mo.) has told colleagues he needs more than $4.5 trillion in room to cover everything GOP lawmakers and Trump want on taxes.

— John Bresnahan and Laura Weiss

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HOUSE DEMOCRATS

New Dems raise concerns about too many progressives joining

The New Democrat Coalition is suddenly a hot ticket on Capitol Hill. The 110-member strong center-left group is seeing an uptick in member interest, including several applicants who also belong to the competing Congressional Progressive Caucus.

But some in New Dem leadership told us they’re worried that newly interested members with leftist voting records are only joining to boost their reelection efforts. New Dems, which promotes bipartisanship and a pragmatic economic message, is sometimes at odds with CPC, the most far-left group in the Democratic Caucus.

“It’s a problem,” one New Dem member told us. “Technically, there wouldn’t be an issue with progressives joining, but if they’re doing it because it’s the political zeitgeist at the time, then it’s a problem.”

One member of New Dem leadership added that the group is going to take positions that progressives “aren’t comfortable with” and that’s something these Democrats need to consider when vetting who joins the caucus.

Since the November election, at least 10 members have applied to join New Dems, including at least three CPC members — Reps. Brad Sherman (D-Calif.), Mike Levin (D-Calif.) and Melanie Stansbury (D-N.M.).

Levin represents a purple district and was a DCCC Frontliner last cycle. Some current New Dem members raised concerns about Stansbury being too progressive for New Dems, but sources close to the New Mexico Democrat said she’s being received positively while going through the process to join.

To become New Dems, members must fill out a questionnaire, meet with the group’s leadership and then pass a caucus-wide vote. New Dem leadership will also look at candidates’ voting records.

Additionally, New Dems bars any member from joining the caucus eight months out from an election to prevent having solely campaign-motivated members.

New Dem Chair Brad Schneider (D-Ill.) told us he expects the group will be adding “multiple members” in the coming weeks and that applicants must meet with the group’s leadership and be voted on by the whole caucus to be admitted.

“We have a strong sense of who we are and what we want to accomplish,” Schneider said. “We look at everyone on a case-by-case basis.”

Double dipping: Typically, it’s not unusual for members to be a part of CPC and New Dems at the same time. For example, Reps. Andrea Salinas (D-Ore.) and Jennifer McClellan (D-Va.) are in New Dem leadership while also being CPC members.

But for New Dem members who are trying to join the CPC, they have to go before the CPC board to make their case.

To Democrats who belong to New Dems and CPC, it’s a politically advantageous way to express personal progressive values while being able to tout their bipartisanship by floating their New Dem status.

“I’ve got a traditionally industrial base in my district and the poorest big city in the country, so there’s a lot of cross-cutting issues,” Rep. Mary Gay Scanlon (D-Pa.), who belongs to both groups, told us. “Membership in both helps me navigate a lot of competing interests.”

The groups also sometimes collaborate. Schneider was on the same press call with CPC Chair Greg Casar (D-Texas) on Thursday to message on the tax fight.

Rep. Becca Balint (D-Vt.), a member of the CPC’s leadership team, said she sees members belonging to both groups as positive. She cited New Dems’ messaging wins in districts won by President Donald Trump as a potential asset for CPC.

“The more that we have cross-pollination, the better for us because we get in our little silos and our message is not as strong as it could be,” Balint told us. “I have more people who voted for Trump in Vermont this time, and I want to understand that.”

– Mica Soellner

WOLVERINE STATE

Will Buttigieg’s out-of-state past be an issue in Michigan Senate race?

As former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg eyes a run for Senate, many in Michigan are wondering if his recent move to the Wolverine State will be a liability if he vies for a seat in 2026.

Buttigieg, a native and former mayor of South Bend, Ind., moved to Traverse City, Mich., in 2022 with his husband Chasten Buttigieg — a Michigan native.

Sen. Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.), who beat former Rep. Mike Rogers (R-Mich.) in November while invoking her opponent’s ties to Florida, admitted to us that Buttigieg’s out-of-state past may be an electoral weakness.

“People have their big strengths, and then they have things that aren’t strengths. And obviously, Pete has owned the fact that it’s his husband who is the Michigan resident,” Slotkin said. “He moved there, but he has other great strengths.”

Slotkin added that Michiganders “also appreciate people who move to our state and make their home there.”

No prominent Democrat has publicly thrown their hat into the ring in the race to succeed retiring Sen. Gary Peters (D-Mich.). But along with Buttigieg, Reps. Haley Stevens (D-Mich.) and Hillary Scholten (D-Mich.), state Sen. Mallory McMorrow and Michigan Attorney General Dana Nessel are considering running.

Peters, a former chair of the DSCC, told us that he thinks Buttigieg will mount “a very strong campaign” if he decides to get in.

“He’s moved there with his husband, who’s a longtime resident. I think folks are going to be looking at other issues,” Peters said of Buttigieg.

If Buttigieg were to run for Senate, he’d automatically become the most high-profile candidate with the ability to outfundraise other competitors. Democrats are already in the Senate minority, so holding Michigan will be critical. But it’ll be no easy task in a state twice won by President Donald Trump.

“We have a big bench in Michigan. We have a lot of people I think that are ready to think about a statewide race, including Pete,” Slotkin said. “It’s very much still an open field.”

On carpetbagging allegations: Modern-day blockbuster Senate races are more nationalized affairs than ever before, so charges of carpetbagging may not carry as much weight as in the past.

For instance, Sen. Dave McCormick (D-Pa.), who was criticized for owning a Connecticut home while running in Pennsylvania, knocked off political stalwart, former Sen. Bob Casey (D-Pa.) in November. But Eric Hovde, Sam Brown, Mehmet Oz and Rogers all lost key Senate races in recent cycles after their Democratic opponents slammed their out-of-state connections.

The GOP view: The NRSC is quickly seizing on the issue by framing Buttigieg as a “former Indiana Mayor” in its campaign messaging.

— Max Cohen

PUNCHBOWL NEWS EVENTS

ICYMI: Hern on tax negotiations

Did you miss our Tax Policy Summit Thursday with Rep. Kevin Hern (R-Okla.)?

Hern, a senior member of the House Ways and Means Committee, discussed his views on how to approach the expiring tax cuts and said President Donald Trump is very involved in the negotiations.

The summit also included a fireside chat with Danielle Rolfes, partner in charge, at KPMG’s Washington National Tax practice and a panel discussion on the child tax credit.

You can watch a recording of the full event here.

— Elvina Nawaguna

THE CAMPAIGN

Gay Valimont, the Democrat running in the special election to succeed former Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.), is running a new ad featuring the endorsement of a veteran. Valimont, who lost to Gaetz in 2024, is the heavy underdog against Republican Jimmy Patronis in the April special election.

— Max Cohen

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