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WASHINGTON AND THE WORLD

Back to the future on Iran nuclear deal

The White House is winning over some Democrats as it looks to sell a potential Iran nuclear deal to Congress, but it’s made zero headway with Republicans.

This shouldn’t be surprising at all. Republicans overwhelmingly opposed the 2015 nuclear deal crafted by former President Barack Obama, formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).

GOP lawmakers also backed former President Donald Trump’s 2018 decision to pull out of that accord and instead apply “maximum pressure” via economic sanctions to prevent Iran from developing a nuclear weapon.

Yet Republicans’ negative reaction to a recent series of briefings by Biden administration officials demonstrates how little difference the change in Democratic presidents has made.

It also shows that the congressional strategy that worked for Obama in 2015 – winning over enough Democratic support to uphold a presidential veto of a resolution of disapproval on an Iran deal – could potentially work for President Joe Biden too. Opponents would need backing from two-third of lawmakers in both chambers for any veto override, and it’s not clear they can do that.

We’ll note that there’s no agreement yet with Iran, and it’s not certain there ever will be one, which members on both sides repeatedly pointed out. Russia’s status as part of the Iran talks even as it conducts a bloody invasion of Ukraine – and is heavily sanctioned by the United States and other European countries – adds huge new complications to an already difficult situation.

“I’m satisfied with the information they gave us,” said Rep. Mike Rogers (R-Ala.), the ranking member of the House Armed Services Committee, said on Tuesday following a briefing by U.S. Special Envoy for Iran Robert Malley and Brett McGurk, the White House’s Middle East coordinator. “I still think it’s a bad idea, but they’re being pretty forthcoming.”

Rogers added: “I’d have to see the deal. But I can’t imagine Iran agreeing to anything that I would support.”

House Republican Conference Chair Elise Stefanik declined to discuss the briefing other than to say she was “concerned about the direction the administration is moving.

“I thought this briefing was excellent. Very comprehensive. And I stayed until the end,” said Rep. Seth Moulton (D-Mass.). “The vast majority of people, including all the Republicans except one, left before the end, so I guess they felt satisfied.”

Moulton said he is undecided on whether to back any reworking agreement with Iran. He did so in 2015. “I was very skeptical initially but became convinced in the end,” Moulton noted. “I take this very seriously. It’s not black and white to me at all.”

Rep. Veronica Escobar (D-Texas), who requested the briefing following reports that the Foreign Affairs Committee had gotten one, left Tuesday’s session convinced that a new nuclear deal was necessary. She was also very critical of Trump’s decision to withdraw.

“My general sense is it’s 50-50 whether or not they get a deal. Is it wrapping up soon? I don’t know. It’s not like tomorrow,” House Armed Services Committee Chair Adam Smith (D-Wash.) told us Tuesday night.

Smith said he’s “worried” about how entrenched members on both sides of the issue are and the ability of the Biden administration to actually change any minds.

“I think the [briefing] really made a pretty compelling case for why we need to get back into the JCPOA. …I think they made that case more broadly so people understand it,” Smith said. “We’ll have the debate. We’ll have the discussion and we’ll see what the agreement ultimately contains.”

Smith – who backed the 2015 agreement — urged the White House to step up its public communications efforts. “Don’t roll this out at the last minute and explain why then,” Smith said.

House Foreign Affairs Committee Chair Gregory Meeks (D-N.Y.) also told us he thinks the White House “started late” in making the case to Capitol Hill. And while administration officials have stepped up their outreach in recent weeks – Foreign Affairs got a briefing last week – lawmakers are frustrated because the administration still holds too much close to the vest.

“We don’t know whether there’s going to be a deal, so that’s the first thing,” Meeks said. “It’s hard to change minds when you don’t know whether you have a deal or not.”

Meeks said he plans to lead a bipartisan trip to Vienna to visit the International Atomic Energy Agency, the United Nations watchdog, in May. “I want to do this in a bipartisan way to get to see and listen to the IAEA on what either the deal is or the deal could be, depending,” Meeks said.

Also worth noting: The House and Senate are getting classified briefings on Ukraine today. The Senate’s is at 3 p.m., the House’s is 4:45 p.m.

BEHIND THE SCENES

House Dem leaders pressure their members to cough up dough

During a closed-door House Democratic caucus meeting Tuesday morning, Speaker Nancy Pelosi, House Majority Whip Jim Clyburn, DCCC Chair Sean Patrick Maloney and endangered Rep. Angie Craig (Minn.) all made a similar plea – it’s time for Democratic lawmakers to pay their dues to the party committee.

The failure by rank-and-file Democrats to pay their annual assessments from the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is more critical now for several reasons: the House Democratic majority is in deep trouble, with both history and the polls against them; and Republicans have overtaken what’s been traditionally a large lead by the DCCC in fundraising, thanks in part to a huge spurt in online fundraising.

The plea from the leadership was followed up with a not-so-subtle reminder. Lisa Walker, the DCCC’s director of member dues, sent a note to Democrats reminding them that Pelosi will “generously match, dollar-for-dollar, every DCCC dues contribution made by March 31st.” Walker also forwarded an email from Maloney with this note:

If Republicans win just five seats in November, they will boot Democrats out of the majority after only four years in power.

A member of leadership, speaking anonymously, put it this way to us last night: “The speaker is very focused on exactly who’s paid dues and who hasn’t. You really don’t want to be on the wrong list right now.”

To be clear, there are dues “deadbeats” across the Democratic Caucus – more than 50, by our count.

Rep. Cheri Bustos (Ill.), the former DCCC chair, still hasn’t paid a dime in dues this cycle. Bustos has more than $1 million on hand and isn’t running for re-election.

Rep. G.K. Butterfield (N.C.), a chief deputy whip and former chair of the Congressional Black Caucus who is also retiring, has nearly $685,000 in his campaign account. But hasn’t paid any of his cyclical assessment.

Rep. Peter Welch (Vt.), also a chief deputy whip, hasn’t paid dues. Welch is running for the Senate, so he is probably off the hook. Reps. Tim Ryan (Ohio), Conor Lamb (Pa.) and Val Demings (Fla.) – all running for the Senate – are stiffing the DCCC as well.

Here are the committee chairs who haven’t ponied up: Transportation and Infrastructure Chair Peter DeFazio (Ore.), Natural Resources Chair Raúl Grijalva (Ariz.) and Oversight Chair Carolyn Maloney (N.Y.).

Also delinquent, according to a recent dues sheet: Reps. Emanuel Cleaver (Mo.), Danny Davis (Ill.), Michael Doyle (Pa.), Bobby Rush (Ill.), Brendan Boyle (Pa.), Jimmy Gomez (Calif.), Grace Meng (N.Y.), Mark Pocan (Wis.), Charlie Crist (Fla.), Ann Kirkpatrick (Ariz.), Adriano Espaillat (N.Y.), Yvette Clark (N.Y.), Lizzie Fletcher (Texas), Vicente Gonzalez (Texas), Chuy Garcia (Ill.), Sylvia Garcia (Texas), Ayanna Pressley (Mass.), Dean Phillips (Minn.), Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (N.Y.), Rashida Tlaib (Mich.), Richie Torres (N.Y.), Jake Auchincloss (Mass.), Andy Levin (Mich.), Gerry Connolly (Va.), Jim Cooper (Tenn.), Joaquin Castro (Texas), John Garamendi (Calif.), Frank Mrvan (Ind.), Grace Napolitano (Calif.), Albio Sires (N.J.), Filemon Vela (Texas), Lou Correa (Calif.), Haley Stevens (Mich.), Kweisi Mfume (Md.), Carolyn Bourdeaux (Ga.), Cori Bush (Mo.), Jamaal Bowman (N.Y.), Troy Carter (La.), Shontel Brown (Ohio), Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick (Fla.), Mark DeSaulnier (Calif.), Anthony Brown (Md.), Lucy McBath (Ga.), Val Demings (Fla.), Ilhan Omar (Minn.) and Joe Morelle (N.Y.).

Two notes: We did not include Frontliners in this list, because the DCCC doesn’t expect them to pay dues. And members of the CBC oftentimes skip out on dues.

Not only was Trump unsuccessful in getting a Republican to primary Thune, but not a single Democrat will challenge him either. Thune had $15 million in his campaign account at the end of 2021, which may have been a deterrent. There’s very little polling in this race, but Morning Consult had Thune at 80% approval rate in January. So yeah.

Thune is among a trio of Senate Republicans considered as possible replacements for Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell whenever the Kentucky Republican gives up the post he’s held the last 16 years. Though that doesn’t appear to be anytime soon.

House Majority PAC, the House Democratic-aligned super PAC, is reserving $102 million in ads, the group told the New York Times’ Jonathan Weisman. Weisman writes that the “battlefield … is considerably larger and more expensive than it was in the past two congressional elections.”

MOMENTS

10 a.m.: Sen. Dick Durbin (D-Ill.) and members of the Ukraine Caucus will meet with members of the Ukrainian parliament in the Capitol.

10:15 a.m.: President Joe Biden will get his daily intelligence briefing.

Noon: Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) and other GOP senators will speak about the situation at the U.S.-Mexico border.

12:30 p.m.: Biden will have lunch with Vice President Kamala Harris.

1 p.m.: House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer will hold a virtual pen-and-pad briefing.

1:30 p.m.: Biden will speak about Covid-19.

2:15 p.m.: Speaker Nancy Pelosi will hold a photo op and give brief remarks with Singapore’s Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong.

2:30 p.m.: Kate Bedingfield will brief.

3 p.m.: Senators will receive a classified briefing on Ukraine. Rep. Mike McCaul (R-Texas) and other members of the House Foreign Affairs Committee will talk about Iran.

4:45 p.m.: House members will receive a classified briefing on Ukraine.

CLIP FILE

NYT

“In Kyiv Suburb, Ukrainian Military Claims a Big Prize,” by Andrew E. Kramer in Irpin, Ukraine

WSJ

AP

Bloomberg

Politico

USA Today