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The ever shrinking House map

Inside Johnson’s options if House GOP tries to impeach judges

GOP hawks seethe as Trump eyes U.S. military commands

House China panel has warned tech over TikTok fines

THE TOP

The ever-shrinking House map

Happy Thursday morning.

We wanted to take this opportunity to review the ever-shrinking battleground for the House majority, a phenomenon that will have massive implications in Washington over the next year and a half.

Republicans currently hold an extremely slender three-seat majority in the House. Democrats are seen as favorites to win back control of the chamber, given the historical trends that normally favor the party out of power.

But let’s be clear: 2026 is unlikely to be a rerun of the 2018 anti-Donald Trump blue wave. House Democrats picked up a whopping 41 seats that year, propelling Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) back into the speaker’s chair.

Consider that in 2016, 23 House Republicans won in districts that Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton also carried. This batch of vulnerable GOP incumbents paved the way for major Democratic gains two years later.

But in 2024, just three House Republicans won in seats that Vice President Kamala Harris carried. As polarization and redistricting have whittled down the number of competitive House seats, wave elections become less likely.

In good news for the GOP, there are essentially the same number of Democrats in Trump seats now as there were eight years ago — 12 Trump-seat Dems in 2017 versus 13 Trump-seat Dems currently.

“We have a very lopsided map,” Speaker Mike Johnson told us last week at Punchbowl News’ The Conference. “It’s a very favorable one for us from a political standpoint and we’re going to go play offense, not defense.”

The Trump factor: We’re confident that barring a major shock, the 2026 midterms – naturally – will be a referendum on Trump. But Trump is in a drastically different political position than at the same point in his first term.

For starters, Trump won the popular vote in 2024. Trump’s electoral success came on the heels of significant rightward shifts from young voters, Hispanic and Asian voters. While pulling off a stunning political comeback, Trump may have kicked off a major realignment in American voting behavior.

But the 2026 midterms will prove a massive test of whether these new converts to the GOP will turn out in an election without Trump on the ballot. The new bedrock of the Democratic base — well-off, college-educated white voters — loves voting in special elections and midterms. With Trump riling up the base, Democrats are so engaged that they’ve dumped more than $9 million into a longshot House special election in an R+14 Florida seat.

The economy: Voters backed Trump and Republicans in the fall because of a deep dissatisfaction with the state of the U.S. economy under former President Joe Biden. As a result, we’re already seeing pocketbook issues dominate the House messaging battle.

A potential recession could cause voters to sour on Trump very quickly. Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell warned on Wednesday about “uncertainty” in the economic picture.

And if Republicans push a tax cut package that skews toward the rich along with social safety net cuts, that’s a huge problem for the party. Perhaps sensing this vulnerability, Trump’s White House is pushing hard for enactment of his campaign promise to cut out taxes on tips and Social Security recipients.

Democrats argue that the very voters Trump flipped to his cause in 2024 — non-ideological working class Americans — may not be motivated to turn out if the first thing they see from the president and Republicans in Congress is Medicaid cuts, tax cuts for the wealthy, continued inflation and a slumping stock market.

“The midterms are shaping up to be a referendum on who is going to help improve the lives of everyday Americans,” DCCC spokesperson Viet Shelton said in a statement. “By all accounts, House Republicans are failing miserably. They aren’t doing anything to lower costs, they’re destroying the economy and they are obsessed with cutting Medicaid in order to pay for tax breaks for billionaires like Elon Musk.”

The history: We may be moving past the days of major swings in the House. After the 41-seat gain in 2018, Democrats lost 13 seats in 2020.

In 2022, the GOP picked up just nine seats, even as Biden was deeply unpopular and inflation soared. The overturning of Roe v. Wade played a big role in blunting an anticipated red wave.

And in 2024, Democrats picked up two House seats while Republicans maintained their majority, another surprising outcome.

Redistricting has turned formerly competitive districts into safe seats. Plus, ticket-splitting’s decline in popularity is cutting down on the number of crossover districts.

The targets: The NRCC dropped its list of 26 Democratic targets on Monday, following the 26-member DCCC Frontline list release earlier in March. There’s overlap of 23 Democratic incumbents on the two lists.

The NRCC hasn’t put out its list of vulnerable members yet and the DCCC hasn’t identified its top targets either. But in December, House Majority PAC laid out 29 House Republicans they planned to target.

We’ll note that it’s still very early to be talking about targeted seats for an election that’s 19 months away. A lot can and will change between now and then.

Where the map is expanding: There are a number of districts with significant Latino populations, from Texas to New Jersey, where Republicans are increasingly competitive. Extreme examples occurred in New Jersey’s 9th District and Texas’ 34th District — both held by Democrats — where Trump gained 20 points in four years. But Democratic Frontliners nationwide outperformed the top of the ticket by an average of three points in 2024, winning in some places where Trump made massive strides.

Also: Sen. Michael Bennet (D-Colo.) said this Wednesday night per NPR when asked about whether Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer should step aside: “It’s important for people to know when it’s time to go.”

— Max Cohen

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THE SPEAKER

Inside Johnson’s options if House GOP tries to impeach judges

In case this needs to be said, Hill Republicans won’t be successful if they try to remove a federal judge from the bench for ruling against President Donald Trump.

Period. Hard stop.

With the Democratic Party’s travails and the long list of legislative items the GOP has, it’s somewhat befuddling to us that Republicans are even going down this path. When your opponent is sinking, it’s a rule of thumb not to offer them a life raft.

But members of Congress – especially those who represent deep red districts – oftentimes don’t work with logical incentive structures.

That brings us to House Speaker Mike Johnson. Johnson, as we’ve seen over the last few months, is inclined to support what Trump wants more often than not. Trump and key allies like billionaire Elon Musk have said that judges who oppose the president’s priorities – or, in their view, overstep their judicial authority – should be removed from the bench.

Let’s be clear. The House Republican leadership doesn’t think it’s wise to begin impeachment proceedings against Judge James Boasberg. Privately, most GOP lawmakers don’t think it’s a smart move. It won’t pass.

But let’s talk about Johnson’s options if Republicans do go down this path.

Remember: Should freshman Rep. Brandon Gill (R-Texas) force a vote on impeaching Boasberg, the resolution would be privileged, which means House Republican leadership would have two days to decide what to do with it.

1) Refer it to committee. This is a tried and true method in House leadership – send the impeachment resolution to the House Judiciary Committee. The panel would then hold hearings on the measure and decide whether Boasberg has, in fact, committed high crimes and misdemeanors. Spoiler alert: Boasberg almost certainly hasn’t, at least by any traditional definition.

This would throw the issue to Judiciary Committee Chair Jim Jordan (R-Ohio). Jordan has a ton of staff – he can handle it.

Jordan appeared on CNN’s “The Arena with Kasie Hunt” Wednesday afternoon and said he plans to hold hearings on the subject. When asked whether impeachment is the appropriate remedy, Jordan replied:

Jordan also said there may be “another legislative remedy” besides impeachment. Republicans are already pushing legislation limiting the scope of injunctions by federal judges.

2) Table it. Another option Johnson has is to try to table the measure. This vote, held at a simple majority threshold, is politically charged. It essentially forces lawmakers to cast a vote on whether they should dispense with impeachment proceedings. The House may table it, but this isn’t a preferred option in the GOP leadership. A vote to table would be seen as a vote against Trump for any Republican moderates.

3) Roll the dice and let the House vote. Johnson could just let a vote happen without any motion to delay. The House would likely reject impeachment and it would divide the Republican Conference.

— Jake Sherman

WASHINGTON X THE WORLD

GOP hawks seethe as Trump eyes U.S. military commands

Top Republicans are sounding the alarm over the Trump administration’s reported plans to relinquish U.S. leadership of NATO military operations in Europe and to scrap a planned buildup of American forces in Japan, among other dramatic changes to the combatant command structure.

In an extraordinary joint statement Wednesday evening, the Republican chairs of the Senate and House Armed Services committees denounced the proposals, saying they’d undermine U.S. national security.

Here’s a snippet of the statement from Senate Armed Services Committee Chair Roger Wicker (R-Miss.) and House Armed Services Committee Chair Mike Rogers (R-Ala.):

These types of statements are rare and reflect defense hawks’ longstanding frustrations with the Trump administration.

Wicker and Rogers going public with their concerns could be an indication that the Pentagon is serious about moving forward with what would amount to a U.S. retreat from key military theatres — all in the name of cutting costs at the Pentagon, the one department whose budget most Republicans want to increase.

As part of a significant restructuring of U.S. combatant commands, the Pentagon is considering ending a decades-long tradition of having a U.S. military officer serve as NATO Supreme Allied Commander Europe, NBC News first reported Tuesday.

The same report noted that the U.S. is “likely” to cancel plans to expand U.S. Forces Japan (USFJ).

The potential moves stem from Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s February directive aimed at cutting 8% from the Pentagon budget.

At the time, Wicker downplayed concerns about the directive, saying it would allow Hegseth to “offset needless and distracting programs — such as those focused on climate change and DEI — and direct focus on important warfighting priorities shared by the Congress.”

Yet it appears that Hegseth is looking to take his spending-cut effort far beyond just climate change and DEI, veering into sacred territory for GOP defense hawks without consulting Congress. It could send a signal that the United States is pulling back from NATO.

“U.S. combatant commands are the tip of the American warfighting spear,” Wicker and Rogers said. “Therefore, we are very concerned about reports that claim DoD is considering unilateral changes on major strategic issues, including significant reductions to U.S. forces stationed abroad, absent coordination with the White House and Congress.”

If Hegseth moves forward with these plans, Congress’ only recourse would be to force a reversal through the appropriations process.

It’s been a rough stretch for GOP defense hawks — especially Wicker, who spent a ton of political capital to get Hegseth confirmed.

This also isn’t the first time Wicker and Hegseth have been at odds. Last month, Wicker said he was “puzzled” and “disturbed” after Hegseth said it’s unrealistic for Ukraine to return to its pre-war borders and appeared to rule out NATO membership for Kyiv.

— Andrew Desiderio

THE CAMPAIGN

Two energy ads are on the air in D.C., with both including President Donald Trump.

The Restoring Energy Dominance Coalition has a new spot about America becoming energy independent, thanks to Trump.

And Centrus Energy PAC – the political arm of the nuclear power company Centrus – has a spot up reminding Trump that, in 2019, he helped the company open the first uranium enrichment plant in the U.S. in 70 years. “Now, Centrus is ready to expand to meet our nuclear power and military needs,” the spot read.

– Jake Sherman

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