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The two dynamics that sped up reconciliation

What Schakowsky’s challenger says about the longtime Illinois Democrat

Senate Judiciary eyes Meta book author

The Ones to Watch: Advancing with AI

The New Power Players

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The two dynamics that sped up reconciliation

Happy Thursday morning.

There are two important developments that help illustrate the warp speed with which Hill Republicans are trying to push President Donald Trump’s legislative agenda.

1) Senate Majority Leader John Thune told a private meeting of Senate Republicans Wednesday that the chamber may vote on a joint House-Senate budget resolution next week, as we scooped. Remember, the House and Senate need to pass an identical budget resolution to unlock reconciliation.

Thune’s projection that the chamber could vote next week represents an accelerated timeline. It’s a week earlier than Thune laid out to Republicans just a day earlier. And it comes after a particularly productive meeting between Thune, Speaker Mike Johnson, top tax writers and key Trump administration officials on Tuesday.

But before the Senate can begin considering a compromise budget resolution, Republicans need to have a ruling in-hand from Senate Parliamentarian Elizabeth MacDonough on whether they can use a scoring method known as the “current policy baseline” to make the 2017 Trump tax cuts permanent without requiring massive new offsets.

That’s because, as Johnson told us earlier this week, the House wants assurances that this baseline tactic will pass muster with the parliamentarian before moving forward.

“We know that they’re talking about that with the parliamentarian, and they’re going to see what they can do on their side with regard to that, and then we’ll talk about it with House members,” Johnson said.

MacDonough will need to meet jointly with GOP and Democratic aides before making a formal decision.

But according to three sources familiar with the matter, that meeting has yet to be scheduled. However, we’re told that MacDonough will be able to decide fairly quickly once that happens. Aides from both parties have already been making the case to MacDonough for and against the baseline strategy.

Using the current policy baseline is a stated necessity for Senate GOP leaders. But it’s never been used in reconciliation before, and some Republicans are skeptical of the scoring method. Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-La.), for example, railed against it during a closed-door GOP lunch on Tuesday.

If Thune and Senate GOP leaders can settle the baseline issue and pull off a vote next week (that’s a big “if” at this point), House Republicans could try to clear the budget resolution before both chambers recess for the Easter and Passover break.

It’s Johnson’s goal to get a reconciliation package to Trump’s desk by Memorial Day. So this accelerated timeline could help him move in that direction. But remember, simply passing a unified budget resolution won’t clear the deck of the thorniest challenges for GOP leaders on spending cuts, specific tax policies and more.

2) Thune’s embrace of the House GOP effort to address the debt limit in reconciliation puts Republicans in alignment on a key element of the budget resolution. It also creates a de facto deadline for the Senate and House to pass a final reconciliation package – the so-called “X-date,” when the U.S. government hits its borrowing limit.

CBO projected Wednesday that this will come in August or September. The Treasury Department sets the actual X date, so the CBO estimate is unofficial. If tax revenue comes in lower than projected Congress could need to raise the debt limit by late May or June.

“We’ve always been working under the assumption that it would be early June,” Johnson told us Wednesday. “That’s probably still within the realm of possibility. It certainly confirms our sense of urgency.”

Thune put it this way:

Let’s be clear about one thing. Despite the upbeat talk, Memorial Day is still a very aggressive deadline to get a reconciliation package to Trump’s desk, especially given all of the policy fights that need to be resolved. Even people involved in the process acknowledge that the August recess is a more realistic backstop.

But in order to get any of this done, Thune and Johnson need Trump. The president will have to be the closer. Republicans can’t lose more than three votes in the Senate. It’s pretty much a guarantee that with a $4 trillion or $5 trillion debt-limit hike, Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) will vote no. But Trump will have to convince Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) and other fiscal hawks that they need to be with him because his presidency rides on this.

Also: The Business Roundtable is up with a new ad debuting on Fox News that touts the success of the 2017 tax cuts and urges Congress to “extend and strengthen President Trump’s tax reform.” It’s part of a massive eight-figure tax campaign this year from the group, which represents CEOs of the largest U.S. companies.

McCarthy’s cash: Former Speaker Kevin McCarthy transferred $587,000 to the NRCC this week. McCarthy made the transfer to help out Rep. Brian Jack (R-Ga.), the NRCC’s recruitment chair who served as the political director to the former speaker. This is more than some House Republicans gave this quarter.

— Jake Sherman, Laura Weiss, Andrew Desiderio and John Bresnahan

Next week on Thursday, April 3 at 8:30 a.m. ET, join Punchbowl News founder Jake Sherman and Rep. French Hill (R-Ark.) for a conversation about the news of the day, digital payments and small business. RSVP here!

WINDY CITY

What Schakowsky’s challenger says about the longtime Illinois Democrat

Longtime Rep. Jan Schakowsky (D-Ill.) could get a run for her money in a race against a 26-year-old progressive social media influencer who just launched a bid for the Chicago-area seat.

Kat Abughazaleh, a former staffer for Media Matters for America with a large online following, said she’s running on a platform that aims to make “far left” ideas like universal child care and expanding the country’s social safety net the norm for Democrats.

The first-time political candidate also wants to challenge Democrats to be more aggressive against President Donald Trump and isn’t afraid of criticizing leadership when necessary.

“Trump is just destroying our country, and while a lot of Democrats seem to agree with that, not all of them are standing up to it,” Abughazaleh told us. “But it’s not just about Trump not being in power. It’s also about having a vision beyond that, and one that’s just bigger than the status quo circa 2005 or 2012.”

This is the latest example of younger, more progressive candidates seeking to topple the Democratic Party’s seniority system.

Abughazaleh is running a nontraditional campaign, focusing on online reach, grassroots activism and small-dollar donations. In a surprising move, Abughazaleh said she’s not planning to use cable TV ads, which has traditionally been the most prominent way to reach large swaths of voters.

And to Abughazaleh’s credit, she’s swiftly bringing in campaign cash and increasing her following by the thousands. Since she launched her campaign this week, Abughazaleh said she’s already raised more than $200,000.

The 80-year-old Schakowsky, who has represented Illinois’ 9th District since 1999, hasn’t announced her intention to run for reelection. But Schakowsky did acknowledge her experience serving the district and Abughazaleh’s new ties to the Chicago area. Abughazaleh moved to the Windy City just last year and doesn’t yet live in the 9th District.

“She’s barely landed in the Chicago area,” Schakowsky told us of the challenger. “I’ve spent many, many years, decades, in the district and have a very, very good relationship with the people who are there.”

Schakowsky, who has built a reputation championing progressive causes, added that she “would win” if she decides to run for reelection, which she’ll announce in a “timely” manner.

House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, who said he hasn’t kept an eye on this race yet, said he will likely have a conversation with Schakowsky at some point about defending her seat if she runs.

At his weekly news conference, Jeffries called Schakowsky “a long-standing, stalwart progressive member” but acknowledged there’s “a lot of anxiety” in the country when asked about the potential primary.

Meanwhile, Abughazaleh isn’t afraid to hit Democratic leadership where they stand now.

Abughazaleh described Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer’s handling of the recent government funding bill as “cowardly,” while criticizing Jeffries for how he dealt with members’ behavior during Trump’s address to Congress.

“If your leadership means chastising the people that stood out against that, that’s not leadership. That is appeasement,” Abughazaleh said. “This is a moment that people like Hakeem Jeffries [need to] meet or they can step aside for someone who will.”

Also: Rep. Julie Johnson (D-Texas) is introducing a resolution condemning the Trump administration for using Signal to share classified information on defense plans.

– Mica Soellner

NEXT IN SERIES

The Ones to Watch: Advancing with AI

The latest segment in our series, The Ones to Watch: Advancing with AI, examines how artificial intelligence is changing the workplace.

Businesses and employees across the nation are already rapidly embracing the technology despite concerns about its potential to displace workers. What’s still unclear is how much that change will be a disruption or an enhancement of modern employment.

To help us understand the issue and learn more about how Congress is approaching AI, we spoke with Rep. Laurel Lee (R-Fla.), a member of the bipartisan House Task Force on Artificial Intelligence.

Lee said AI technology is evolving “so very rapidly” that educational institutions have to be “agile” in preparing students for the future workforce. Lee has been working on bringing educational institutions and tech companies together in her district to prepare young people for jobs integrated with AI.

She also noted that the technology isn’t just a tool meant to replace jobs.

“It should be something that enables and equips the American worker to do more and to be more productive,” Lee said.

Lawmakers in Congress and across the states are still on a quest to better understand AI in order to draft legislative frameworks that boost its growth while tamping down the worst effects of its increased use. Still, they remain optimistic that the technology will provide a net benefit to the workforce and industry.

Check out the series here.

– Joy Mazur

PUNCHBOWL NEWS EVENTS

The New Power Players

On Wednesday night, we hosted Oklahoma GOP Governor Kevin Stitt for our first edition of The New Power Players series on the road, presented by Arnold Ventures and The State Chamber of Oklahoma. Stitt sat down with Punchbowl News Founder & CEO Anna Palmer to discuss news of the day, permitting reform and criminal justice reform, followed by a fireside chat with Laura and John Arnold, founders and co-chairs of Arnold Ventures. Chad Warmington, president and CEO of The State Chamber of Oklahoma gave opening remarks.

Raising a glass: Oklahoma Secretary of State Josh Cockroft; Oklahoma State Sen. Brent Howard (R); Oklahoma Secretary of Public Safety Tricia Everest; Stacey Glasscock from Rep. Frank Lucas’s (R-Okla.) office; Megan Hankins from Rep. Tom Cole’s (R-Okla.) office; Ryan McCartney from Rep. Stephanie Bice’s (R-Okla.) office; Abegail Cave from Gov. Stitt’s office; Kevin Ring and Jennifer Laudano of Arnold Ventures; Holly Harris of The Network; Donelle Harder of Pinkston; Emily Crouch of The State Chamber of Oklahoma; Haley Faulkenberry of A&A Advocates; David Safavian and Tim Head of Unifiy.US; Ellen Buettner of the Oklahoma Healthcare Authority; Rich Rasmussen of the Oklahoma Hospital Association; Rick Nagel of Acorn Capital Management; Jeff Wilson of Devon Energy; and Blu Hulsey of Continental Resources.

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