The Archive

IN THIS EDITION

Tariffs, electoral turbulence and the Trump agenda

Chris Murphy hits the road for Dems

K Street sees IRA, Medicaid, SNAP as top reconciliation cuts

What the Wisconsin delegation is watching for in state’s Supreme Court race

The Ones to Watch: Advancing with AI

THE TOP

Tariffs, electoral turbulence and the Trump agenda

Happy Monday morning. The House and Senate are in session.

This week will tell us a lot about the state of Donald Trump’s presidency. There’ll be action on tariffs, elections and Trump’s legislative agenda. And an already nervous Wall Street will be watching closely.

First up, the House GOP leadership plans to use the House Rules Committee today to quash Rep. Anna Paulina Luna’s (R-Fla.) discharge petition authorizing proxy voting for new and expectant mothers.

This is Speaker Mike Johnson trying to circumvent the will of the majority of the House. If he succeeds, it’s an example of the speaker using the enormous power afforded to him to thwart a loyal rank-and-file member. If Johnson fails, it’ll be an embarrassment. Here’s what the House is considering this week on the floor.

Second, on Tuesday, voters go to the ballot box in Florida and Wisconsin for two high-stakes elections that will provide an EKG of sorts on American voters.

Most important for you is the 6th District race in Florida between Republican Randy Fine and Democrat Josh Weil to replace National Security Adviser Michael Waltz in the House. This is a seat Republicans should win by two dozen points. But Fine has been embarrassingly outraised. A St. Pete Poll showed Weil down by just four points.

Let’s be clear: Fine should win, and he likely will. But this shouldn’t be a race. Democratic anti-Trump energy is keeping it close.

Republicans complain Fine is a bad candidate who didn’t raise enough money. That may be true. But anything less than a 20-point victory should raise alarm bells in GOP leadership ranks and at NRCC HQ.

Third, on Wednesday, Trump will unveil tariffs on a whole set of countries, including but not limited to Canada, Mexico, Venezuela, anyone that buys oil from Venezuela and on cars made outside the United States. Trump hasn’t been entirely clear what tariffs he will put in place.

Trump aide Peter Navarro said on “Fox News Sunday” that auto import tariffs would bring in $100 billion per year. Other tariffs would reportedly net $600 billion each year for a decade. It’s impossible to assess whether these numbers are legitimate. But this will dominate both market chatter and Capitol Hill conversations all week.

Reconciliation. We scooped last week that Senate Majority Leader John Thune told Republicans during a closed-door meeting that he wants to get going on a compromise budget resolution as soon as this week. This is a key step in unlocking Trump’s agenda.

But there are major questions that need to be resolved for that to happen — and fast.

First, the Senate parliamentarian needs to decide whether Republicans can use a scoring method known as the “current policy baseline.” This is key to satisfying a goal of Thune’s — making the 2017 tax cuts permanent — by zeroing out the official cost.

Before that decision is handed down, Senate Parliamentarian Elizabeth MacDonough needs to huddle with GOP and Democratic aides for a final joint meeting.

We’re told that this meeting hasn’t yet been scheduled, which has raised serious questions about how quickly Senate Republicans can actually start this process. Once they have a ruling, Senate Republicans would still need to nail down final details for their tax committee instructions. MacDonough’s decision will guide how those instructions are written.

But along with procedural hurdles, there could be political ones. We reported last week that House and Senate leaders want to give the two chambers different spending cut targets — $3 billion minimum for the Senate, $1.5 trillion for the House. This is by design. It gives Republicans more time to figure out exact spending-cut numbers. It also gives them maximum flexibility for Byrd Rule compliance when finally drafting an actual bill.

But House deficit hawks could conclude the Senate isn’t serious enough about locking in big spending cuts and balk at the compromise resolution. If that happens, the Senate’s plans could shift or the two chambers could end up back in a standoff. Other details also need finalizing, like the specific debt-limit increase. House Republicans approved $4 trillion, while the Senate GOP has floated $5 trillion.

If Republicans’ strategy goes according to plan, the Senate’s first vote would be a motion to proceed to the House’s budget resolution, set at a simple-majority threshold. This unlocks 50 hours of debate, equally divided between Democrats and Republicans. At that point, a vote-a-rama begins, followed by a vote on the compromise budget resolution — the substitute — and then passage of the resolution.

So how soon could this actually begin? It’s safe to say nothing will happen until after Tuesday’s Senate GOP lunch and a tentative “Big Six” tax meeting. So, in theory, the Senate could start on Wednesday. But that’s only if they have a parliamentarian ruling, and if things don’t go sideways when lawmakers return today.

Here’s some news: As Republicans advance their budget resolution, there will be pressure from all sides to extend a mess of expiring provisions and programs. A coalition called Keep Americans Covered — focused on extending the 2021 enhanced premium tax credits for health insurance purchased through the Affordable Care Act marketplace — is launching a seven-figure ad campaign in D.C. and nationwide to push Republicans to act.

A couple of key Republicans have expressed support for keeping the enhanced subsidies. Watch the ad here.

— Jake Sherman, John Bresnahan, Andrew Desiderio and Laura Weiss

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THE SENATE

Chris Murphy hits the road for Dems

At a time when their party has no official leader, appearing rudderless at times, few Democrats are sticking their neck out as often as Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.).

Now, Murphy is taking his efforts on the road.

The 51-year-old Murphy, who was just reelected to a third Senate term, is occasionally mentioned as the Democratic Party’s future and potential 2028 presidential candidate. But Murphy, who held a town hall in Warren, Mich. on Saturday, says he’s just doing his part to spotlight what he calls an unpopular GOP agenda while helping his party climb out of its post-election doldrums.

“We all have a responsibility to be out there all across the country, especially in places where Republicans are hiding,” Murphy told us in an interview Sunday. “Our biggest problem yesterday was the fire marshal who kept turning people away.”

Murphy teamed up with 28-year-old Rep. Maxwell Frost (D-Fla.) for the town hall in a GOP district, and said the duo plans to continue throughout the spring. Murphy encouraged other Democrats to do the same during Congress’ two-week recess in April, when the attention will turn to Republicans’ budget reconciliation bill and the potential cuts to programs like Medicaid.

Messaging war: Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, who’s still reeling from the government funding fight that sparked widespread backlash against him, has name-checked Murphy as one of the party’s best messengers.

Schumer has spoken openly about his goal of driving President Donald Trump’s poll numbers down to help create a political environment in which Republicans are reluctant to hitch their wagon to him. That starts with zeroing in on possible Medicaid cuts as part of Republicans’ tax package and exploiting GOP divisions on the subject.

To be sure, Democrats have no way of stopping a GOP tax cut. Republicans are using the budget reconciliation process, meaning they only need a simple majority in the Senate.

But Murphy is using his tour, in part, to put pressure on the handful of Republicans who have said they won’t vote for a bill that cuts Medicaid.

“These aren’t political rallies with no legislative purpose,” Murphy said. “We’re not trying to just drive up Trump’s disapproval ratings. We’re trying to stop them from passing harmful policy.”

In our interview and on the stump, Murphy referenced Republicans’ first attempt at a budget reconciliation bill in 2017 — repealing the Affordable Care Act. That effort went down in flames with the late Sen. John McCain’s (R-Ariz.) famous thumbs-down vote against the effort. But Murphy suggested that saga — and the successful Democratic messaging campaign that kept the ACA alive — could serve as a blueprint for Democrats this time around.

However, for Republicans, the stakes are much higher with this particular effort, as are the costs of failure. Not only would Americans see a tax increase if Republicans don’t extend the 2017 Trump tax cuts, but economic calamity could ensue, given GOP leaders’ bid to raise the debt limit as part of reconciliation. Of course, this would become an impetus for Republicans to reach across the aisle for something that could get 60 votes. But Trump and GOP leaders will exhaust every possible option before that happens.

He’s got company: Murphy said Democrats need to prioritize parts of the country where Trump was popular last November. Rep. John James (R-Mich.) represents the district he and Frost visited Saturday.

Murphy and Frost aren’t alone in fanning out across the country. Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) have been speaking to massive crowds as part of their “Fighting Oligarchy” tour. Murphy said he and Sanders have spoken about their efforts.

“None of the rest of us are gonna draw the kind of crowds that Bernie draws,” Murphy said, adding but “without his leadership, I don’t know if we’d be in a position today where more and more members are doing the same.”

— Andrew Desiderio

K Street sees IRA, Medicaid, SNAP as top reconciliation cuts

Most K Street leaders predict the GOP’s final reconciliation package will include cuts to key social programs but also believe it will seriously harm Republicans going into the 2026 midterm elections.

Among respondents to our latest Canvass poll, 88% predicted cuts to clean energy tax credits under the Inflation Reduction Act; 74% said Medicaid and 72% said the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) will face cuts in any Republican reconciliation package.

Republicans are seeking $1.5 trillion in spending reductions. They’re likely to take aim at social safety net programs such as the healthcare program, the food and nutrition program and aspects of the Biden administration’s inflation reduction law.

Sixty-one percent of K Street leaders also thought that Pell Grants, which help under-served families pay for college, will be on the chopping block as well.

On the other hand, about two-thirds of K Street leaders predicted Medicare will be safe from cuts. Just 27% of respondents thought there would be cuts to Medicare, which pays for seniors’ healthcare.

Slashing funding for those popular programs could come back to haunt Republicans in the 2026 midterm elections, K Street leaders who took the survey said. Nearly all (98%) of Democrats and 86% of GOP respondents said cuts to Medicaid would harm the party in 2026. On SNAP, 81% of Democrats and 58% of GOP leaders thought cuts would be harmful to Republicans.

While Republican leaders from both chambers saw momentum last week on their compromise budget plan, multiple Senate Republicans have voiced disapproval of planned cuts to Medicaid.

Senators from some deep-red states that have high populations dependent on Medicaid, such as West Virginia and Alabama, have pushed back on the proposed cuts.

“I have concerns,” Sen. Jim Justice (R-W.Va.) said last week, adding that his state has “a lot of folks” who count on Medicaid for their healthcare.

The predictions on cuts to the healthcare program were bipartisan, with a majority of Democrats (87%) and GOP (61%) respondents saying Medicaid will be slashed.

Similarly, respondents from both parties agreed about SNAP cuts, with 85% of Democrats and 59% of GOP senior K Street leaders saying cuts to the program are likely.

The Canvass K Street was conducted Feb. 27- March 4 in partnership with independent public affairs firm, LSG.

Want to take part in The Canvass? Our survey provides anonymous monthly insights from top Capitol Hill staffers and K Street leaders on key issues Washington is dealing with. Sign up here if you work on K Street. Click here to sign up if you’re a senior congressional staffer.

— Joy Mazur

BADGER STATE

What the Wisconsin delegation is watching for in state’s Supreme Court race

On Capitol Hill, Wisconsin lawmakers are framing Tuesday’s state Supreme Court race as a consequential contest that could have major ramifications on how the Badger State’s congressional districts are drawn.

The race between Democratic-aligned Dane County Judge Susan Crawford and former Republican Attorney General Brad Schimel will determine whether the state’s high court will remain under 4-3 liberal control or flip to a conservative majority.

“It has big stakes for the House. You see the narrow margins we’re in for passing bills,” Rep. Tom Tiffany (R-Wis.) told us. “If [Crawford] wins, they’ll turn Wisconsin into Minnesota and Illinois. They’re failing states and people are fleeing. I’m afraid Wisconsin could end up in the same position.”

Rep. Derrick Van Orden (R-Wis.) called the race “the most important political race in the entire country.” He also pointed to President Donald Trump’s team’s interest in the race to highlight its significance.

“What’s at stake is control of the House of Representatives,” Van Orden said. “They’re trying to buy the House of Representatives so that they can subvert President Trump’s agenda and disenfranchise 77 million voters.”

The Wisconsin Supreme Court election will be a test for Trump’s appeal in a state he narrowly flipped back last year after losing the Badger State to former President Joe Biden in 2020. Trump won Wisconsin in 2016.

Trump allies are pouring millions of dollars into the race, most of which has come from groups tied to Elon Musk. A Musk-linked PAC awarded a Green Bay man $1 million for supporting its petition to stop “activist judges” in Wisconsin.

Democratic response: Democrats are focusing their messaging on Musk’s financial involvement in the special election.

“The race really is coming down in many ways, to Elon Musk putting $19 million into trying to buy a Supreme Court justice,” Rep. Mark Pocan (D-Wis.) told us. “Much of the conversation about the race really is kind of a referendum on Musk and Trump and Musk’s money.”

Most Democratic ads have sought to portray Schimel as a failed prosecutor who is soft on crime and hands out favors to his allies. And lawmakers are highlighting the policy issues that the Wisconsin Supreme Court will weigh in on.

“The controversies that are likely to come before the court include reproductive freedom and the right to organize,” said Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.). “And this seat will control the balance of the court so it’s vitally important.”

Also in the campaign world: Elect Democratic Women is endorsing Marlene Galán-Woods in Arizona’s 1st District. Galán-Woods finished third in the 2024 Democratic primary and is mounting a comeback bid to unseat Rep. David Schweikert (R-Ariz.).

— Mica Soellner and Max Cohen

ICYMI

The Ones to Watch: Advancing with AI

The most recent segment in our series on artificial intelligence explored how the technology is changing the modern workplace.

Employers are already integrating AI into their business operations as they look to become more efficient. Workers are also embracing AI, despite continuing fear that the ever-evolving technology will displace human employees.

We spoke to Rep. Laurel Lee (R-Fla.) to understand how policymakers are approaching the issue. Lee argued that AI shouldn’t be seen as a tool that will cost people their jobs.

“It should be something that enables and equips the American worker to do more and to be more productive,” she said.

Read the full segment here and listen to the accompanying podcast here.

Look out for our fourth and final segment next week.

– Joy Mazur

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