The Archive
Every issue of the Punchbowl News newsletter, including our special editions, right here at your fingertips.
Join the community, and get the morning edition delivered straight to your inbox.
March 3, 2025
Presented by RED Coalition
You voted for American energy dominance—and the Trump Administration is delivering. From solar to oil & gas, they’re unleashing it all. More energy. More jobs. Higher wages. America is booming—because when we lead, we win.
PRESENTED BY
THE TOP
Three crises facing Trump and Republicans
Happy Monday morning.
President Donald Trump and GOP leaders are confronting a trio of self-made crises as we enter a very big week for Republicans. On Tuesday night, Trump is giving his first address to Congress in five years.
1) Government funding expires in 11 days. Speaker Mike Johnson now says he wants a clean continuing resolution through Sept. 30 without trying to codify the cuts made by Elon Musk’s DOGE team. While this is a reversal from Johnson’s previous position, it lines Johnson up with Senate Majority Leader John Thune. Yet Democratic votes will be necessary to pass anything.
2) European leaders are rallying behind Ukraine after Trump’s Oval Office blowup with President Volodymyr Zelensky on Friday. With the Trump administration pulling back and potentially cancelling future military aid shipments to Kyiv, European nations are quickly trying to fill the void. GOP defense hawks are reeling, NATO’s future is in doubt and allies worldwide are openly questioning the United States’ reliability as a partner.
3) Trump will announce Tuesday – the day of his Capitol HIll address – whether he’ll move forward with 25% tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada (Canadian energy imports would face a 10% tariff) plus another 10% tariff boost on imports from China. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said Sunday that Canadian and Mexican officials have taken steps to cut down on migrants and drugs crossing the border, raising the possibility that Trump may impose smaller tariffs on two of the biggest U.S. trading partners.
Government funding. It’s getting closer to the March 14 government-funding deadline and there’s no resolution in sight yet.
Remember: This is the deadline we told you last year was a mistake and could interrupt Republicans’ plans to advance Trump’s agenda. The same funding deadline that the GOP congressional leaders said wouldn’t be a problem because they’d deal with it ahead of time. Of course, that didn’t happen. Now there’s less than two weeks until a shutdown.
The GOP leadership wants to pass a CR until the end of the fiscal year on Sept. 30. Their plan is to keep funding at current levels.
But Democrats want language in any funding bill mandating that Trump spend the money how Congress appropriates it. Trump has shown that he has no problem flaunting Congress’ spending priorities and senior Republicans refuse to give in on this.
There are a bunch of questions right now about what will happen on the shutdown front.
– Timing: Will Johnson put a CR on the floor this week? Some in the GOP leadership say that he could, although there’s no sign of that yet. We doubt it.
– How will Republicans react? Can Johnson pass a CR with only House Republicans? No, probably not. Will defense hawks freak out about a CR? The Pentagon hates CRs, so many of them already are. But Johnson and Thune note that Republicans’ reconciliation bill will give the Pentagon another $100 billion to 150 billion.
– Will Democrats bail Republicans out? This is the big question. Democrats have shown in the past that, despite their antipathy toward Trump, they’re not willing to hold back their votes when they are needed on must-pass legislation.
However, that was pre-DOGE. Layoffs of 7,000 workers from the Social Security Administration, layoffs at the VA, FAA layoffs while Musk is pushing to get a new Starlink contract out of the agency, angry constituents at GOP town halls – this is what Democrats are seeing now.
So House Democrats will wait to see if Johnson can pass a rule for a CR with GOP votes alone. Then Democrats will decide whether to vote for a CR. For their part, Senate Democrats will wait for the House drama to play out first.
Johnson has shifted his position on the CR over the last week.
In an interview with CNN’s Kaitlan Collins that we wrote about Thursday, Johnson said he’d try to load up the six-month CR with provisions to account for Musk’s DOGE cuts.
Now Johnson is saying that he won’t seek to codify any of those DOGE cuts until FY 2026.
Appearing on Fox Business’ “Sunday Morning Futures with Maria Bartiromo,” Johnson said that Congress will “pass a clean CR to get us past FY25.”
More Johnson:
On the one hand, this kind of talk – no DOGE cuts coupled with Johnson’s insistence that the CR needs to be bipartisan – should lower the temperature on a potential shutdown.
Yet it could cause problems inside the House Republican Conference. Some House Republicans say Johnson is funding the government with Democratic help and cutting no spending from last year’s Joe Biden-approved levels. Which is true. But that’s what Johnson has to do given how slim his margin is.
On the House and Senate floor: Senate GOP leaders are looking to squeeze Democrats with a procedural vote tonight on the Protection of Women and Girls in Sports Act. We don’t expect it to get 60 votes, but the issue was a prominent one for Republicans in various Senate races last year.
The Senate is also set to hold confirmation votes for education secretary nominee Linda McMahon and labor secretary nominee Lori Chavez-DeRemer this week.
The House will consider several CRAs this week.
— Jake Sherman, John Bresnahan and Andrew Desiderio
THE SENATE
Young, one-time skeptic, wants to be a ‘team player’ for Trump
In today’s Republican Party, opposing President Donald Trump is the political equivalent of a death wish — a near-guaranteed descent to irrelevance and diminished influence.
Sen. Todd Young (R-Ind.) has avoided that fate — for now.
Young declared, in no uncertain terms, last year that he wouldn’t be voting for Trump. But Trump won convincingly in November, carrying Republicans to victory up and down the ballot.
So Young has adapted by altering his posture toward Trump and making clear that he’s a “team player” for Republicans — and he certainly has been. Young also sees a chance to pad his extensive legislative record. But it’s a delicate balance, as the Indiana Republican isn’t backing away from his past criticism of Trump.
That means establishing a working relationship with Trump (they’ve spoken several times since November) and voting for his nominees even after having expressed skepticism.
“I’ve demonstrated that I can be an independent voice and an independent vote, but I’ve also demonstrated… that I’m an excellent team player,” Young told us during a 20-minute interview in his Senate hideaway.
“My posture is one of supporting this president in his efforts to revitalize the economy, secure the border, control inflation… and in the end make him the most successful president in modern history,” Young added. “I will do well more than my part in furtherance of that objective.”
The shift is also essential for political survival. The 52-year-old Young isn’t up for reelection until 2028, but he wants to retain his influence as a conservative who can work across the aisle to pass landmark legislation like the CHIPS Act.
An unlikely partner: Young said he’s had nearly a dozen direct interactions with Trump since November. In each conversation, in-person and over the phone, Young said Trump has focused on the future and spent “very little” time on Young’s past criticisms. Trump incorporates humor to make conversations more “comfortable,” Young said.
In fact, Young said he and Trump will soon announce a “legislative initiative” together. Young declined to divulge details, but he suggested it makes no sense for him to publicly undermine Trump in this moment.
“In the event that I have a question about something the president’s done, I think we owe him a measure of discretion,” Young said. “And then we owe him and his team private counsel before we opine publicly in this era of social media.”
Young credited Vice President JD Vance and White House Chief of Staff Susie Wiles with fostering more collaboration with Hill Republicans than before and during the first Trump administration. That included Vance’s role in trying to persuade Young to back Tulsi Gabbard for director of national intelligence.
“They have accommodated some different views and some concerns that might have interrupted their agenda had they not accommodated them,” Young said. “They did not ask me to back away from my concerns, which was important to me.”
The journey: It was a risky gamble for Young, who soured on Trump after the 2020 election and, like many other Republicans, hoped that Trump’s political career was over. Young, however, didn’t vote to convict Trump in his Jan. 6 impeachment trial.
As NRSC chair during the 2020 cycle, Young had a front-row seat to what many Senate Republicans believed was a Trump-fueled debacle that handed Democrats control of the chamber. At the time, Trump was falsely claiming the 2020 election was rigged and brought that message to run-off Senate races in Georgia. Republicans lost both seats and their majority.
Young chose not to fall in line when Trump became the presumptive 2024 nominee.
But even when he was criticizing Trump, Young didn’t rush to the cameras. When Young did offer criticism, he was often simply vocalizing concerns that other Republicans would only gripe about in private.
— Andrew Desiderio
Top Hill staffers predict government shutdown
More than half of senior Hill staffers say their member of Congress believes there will likely be a government shutdown this year, according to our latest Canvass survey.
Federal government funding is set to lapse March 14 and both sides are no closer to a deal.
Survey respondents largely fell along party lines with only 37% of Republicans and 76% of Democrats predicting a shutdown.
Lawmakers are now contending with the likelihood of a continuing resolution that would fund the government through Sept. 30. A CR looks increasingly “inevitable,” Speaker Mike Johnson said last week.
On Friday, House Appropriations Committee ranking member Rep. Rosa DeLauro (D-Conn.), and Sen. Patty Murray (D-Wash.), the top Democrat on the Senate Appropriations Committee, criticized their GOP counterparts for considering a CR, warning it would raise the risk of a shutdown.
“Their plan would only help Trump and Musk cut off support for our veterans, cancel lifesaving cancer research, and threaten seniors’ Social Security benefits,” DeLauro and Murray wrote in a joint statement.
Democrats have leverage here, but lawmakers are still weighing the political cost of opposing a CR package and risking a government shutdown. They want guarantees that President Donald Trump would spend funds as appropriated by Congress.
The latest Canvass Capitol Hill survey was conducted Feb. 3-21 in partnership with independent public affairs firm, LSG.
Want to take part in The Canvass? Our survey provides anonymous monthly insights from top Capitol Hill staffers and K Street leaders on key issues Washington is dealing with. Sign up here if you work on K Street. Click here to sign up if you’re a senior congressional staffer.
– Joy Mazur
PRESENTED BY AMAZON
Vontélle Eyewear uses Fulfillment by Amazon to reach customers across the country. Find out more.
📆
What we’re watching
Monday: The House Rules Committee is meeting to prepare three Congressional Review Acts for floor consideration.
Tuesday: The Senate Armed Services Committee will hold a hearing to consider Elbridge Colby’s nomination to be under secretary of defense for policy.
The House Homeland Security Committee will hold a hearing about the future of FEMA along with several emergency management officials.
The House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee will hold a hearing on air traffic infrastructure and staffing. Witnesses include: Nick Calio, the head of Airlines for America, the commercial aviation trade group; Nick Daniels, president of the National Air Traffic Controllers Association; and Pete Bunce, president and CEO of the General Aviation Manufacturers Association.
The Senate Foreign Relations Committee will hold a hearing to consider several nominees: Christopher Landau to be deputy secretary of state, Michael John Rigas to be deputy secretary of state for management and resources and Matthew Whitaker to be the ambassador to NATO.
Wednesday: The House Homeland Security Committee has a hearing on threats posed by China.
The House’s China Select Committee will hold a hearing on Chinese cyber attacks and America’s “lackluster cyber defenses,” featuring the former head of cybersecurity for the National Security Agency.
The House Oversight and Government Reform Committee will hold a hearing with “sanctuary city mayors.”
The Senate Environment and Public Works Committee will hold a confirmation hearing for several EPA officials.
The Senate HELP Committee will hold a hearing on Jay Bhattacharya’s nomination to be NIH director.
The Senate Budget Committee will hold a hearing on former Rep. Dan Bishop’s (R-N.C.) nomination to be deputy director of OMB.
The Senate Judiciary Committee will hold a hearing on antisemitism in America.
Thursday: The Senate HELP Committee will hold confirmation hearings for Keith Sonderling to be deputy secretary of labor and Martin Makary to be FDA commissioner.
The Senate Finance Committee will hold a hearing on the nomination of Michael Faulkender to be deputy secretary of treasury.
– Jake Sherman
… AND THERE’S MORE
Hochul’s D.C. ad, now live at Union Station
New York Gov. Kathy Hochul is running an ad in Union Station’s digital displays suggesting that the Empire State will hire workers that were fired by DOGE cuts.
Here’s the ad, which started at midnight:
– Jake Sherman
Crucial Capitol Hill news AM, Midday, and PM—5 times a week
Join a community of some of the most powerful people in Washington and beyond. Exclusive newsmaker events, parties, in-person and virtual briefings and more.
Subscribe to Premium
The Canvass Year-End Report
And what senior aides and downtown figures believe will happen in 2023.
Check it outEvery single issue of Punchbowl News published, all in one place
Visit the archive
Presented by RED Coalition
You voted for American energy dominance—and the Trump Administration is delivering. From solar to oil & gas, they’re unleashing it all. More energy. More jobs. Higher wages. America is booming—because when we lead, we win.