Pressure on Trump in Texas runoff

IN THIS EDITION

Texas is going to get ugly over the next 3 months

What’s next for Congress on Iran?

Vault: Bisignano’s Capitol Hill debut

After Noem’s Senate grilling, the House awaits

THE TOP

Texas is going to get ugly over the next 3 months

Happy Wednesday morning.

AUSTIN, Texas — Senate Republicans spent $77 million to buy themselves a runoff here in Texas.

Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) edged out Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton last night — barely. With 89% of the vote in, Cornyn had 41.9%, while Paxton tallied 40.9%. GOP Rep. Wesley Hunt came in distant third at 13.4%.

That result means this bare-knuckle, mega-Texas primary will last for another 12 weeks. Gobs more money will be spent. And it’ll put a tremendous amount of pressure on the White House to get involved in the race.

Senate Majority Leader John Thune and top Republicans have been urging President Donald Trump for months to endorse the 74-year-old Cornyn, a four-term incumbent. That effort will ramp up significantly in the weeks ahead as both Cornyn and Thune make the case that the veteran GOP senator defied expectations and is the best candidate to keep Texas red.

During an election night news conference, Cornyn called Paxton a “dead weight” for down-ballot races and said if the controversial AG were the nominee, it could cause Republicans to lose five House seats in Texas. This could be an appealing argument for Trump to back Cornyn. Perhaps it’ll outweigh Cornyn’s history of criticizing Trump following the 2020 election.

“I refuse to allow a flawed, self-centered and shameless candidate like Ken Paxton risk everything we’ve worked so hard to build over these many years,” Cornyn told supporters in a ballroom at the downtown Marriott here. “There is simply too much at stake in this midterm election for our state and for our country.”

Cornyn added: “Judgment Day is coming for Ken Paxton.”

With state Rep. James Talarico defeating Rep. Jasmine Crockett by more than seven points in the Democratic Senate primary and avoiding a runoff, Republicans will make that argument to Trump — they need their strongest, most battle-tested candidate at the top of the ticket.

There was major drama tonight for Democrats, too. New voting procedures led hundreds of voters to turn up at the wrong polling sites, resulting in mass confusion and a flurry of court orders changing voting hours in the Dallas area. That’s Crockett’s home base and could put an asterisk on Talarico’s win.

Crockett entered the race with a large early lead, but Talarico overcame that with massive spending. Talarico also made the case that he was the stronger general-election candidate.

Paxton’s problems. Paxton’s career and personal life have been marred by scandal after scandal, and Republicans are concerned in particular about Talarico’s broader appeal beyond the Democratic base. Thune now has the political capital to press Trump to back Cornyn after this performance.

For his part, Paxton claimed Texas Republicans made clear they’ve had enough of Cornyn.

“After all the personal attacks and all the lies, you listened to what John Cornyn was selling and you weren’t buying it,” Paxton told his own supporters in Dallas. “In his over 40 years in office, you cannot name one single accomplishment that [Cornyn] has done to help the state of Texas. Forty years!”

Outlook. Short of Cornyn winning outright, Tuesday’s outcome was the best-case scenario for Senate GOP leaders. If Paxton had won by a sizable margin or Crockett was likely to be the nominee, it would be that much harder for Thune to convince Trump that Cornyn was a good bet.

But this GOP runoff will also be incredibly expensive. The drawn-out Cornyn-Paxton battle will siphon resources away from Senate battleground states like North Carolina and Michigan.

It’s important to remember that the runoff dynamics favor Paxton. The electorate in a runoff is smaller and much more conservative. It’s the hard-core activist types who show up to vote the day after Memorial Day. Cornyn will really need Trump’s endorsement here. Talking about his record in the Senate as a pragmatic dealmaker won’t do Cornyn any good.

Establishment Republicans are furious with Hunt, too. Tuesday’s results back up their claims that Hunt had no path to victory and only served as a runoff-causing spoiler. But Republicans were forced to spend millions countering a late surge by Hunt

Incumbents struggle. Otherwise, primary night was a pretty bad one for incumbents.

GOP Rep. Dan Crenshaw had his clock cleaned by state Rep. Steve Toth. Toth is leading the 41-year-old former Navy SEAL by 16 points with 91% of the vote in. Crenshaw couldn’t even drag himself into a runoff despite vastly outspending Toth.

Republican Rep. Tony Gonzales, in the midst of a scandal over an alleged affair with a now-deceased former aide, advanced to a runoff with Brandon Herrera, a gun-rights YouTube star. Gonzales is trailing by roughly two points. The runoff means that the Office of Congressional Conduct won’t release its report on Gonzales until after the May runoff.

Longtime Democratic Rep. Al Green of Houston is trailing in his primary to newly elected Rep. Christian Menefee. This means redistricting could lead to a generational shift for the nation’s fourth-largest city. Green is 78, while Menefee is only 37. This is a heavily Democratic seat that will stay blue in November.

And Rep. Julie Johnson (D-Texas) appears to be headed for a runoff with former Rep. Colin Allred (D-Texas) in a blue Dallas seat.

The battlegrounds. Both parties got their preferred recruits in South Texas with no runoffs. Attorney Eric Flores won the GOP nomination to take on Democratic Rep. Vicente Gonzalez. And Webb County Judge Tano Tijerina will face Democratic Rep. Henry Cuellar.

Tejano music star Bobby Pulido also advanced to a general matchup against GOP Rep. Monica De La Cruz.

North Carolina. Two-term Rep. Valerie Foushee (D-N.C.) is locked in a too-close-to-call race with Nida Allam, the progressive Durham County commissioner in a deep-blue seat.

In North Carolina’s 1st District, 2024 Republican candidate Laurie Buckhout has a rematch with Rep. Don Davis (D-N.C.) in a seat that trended right after redistricting.

– Jake Sherman, Ally Mutnick, Andrew Desiderio and Max Cohen

TOMORROW: We’ll sit down with Reps. Juan Ciscomani (R-Ariz.) and Jake Auchincloss (D-Mass.) at 8:30 a.m. ET to discuss the news of the day and access to cancer screening. RSVP now to save your seat!

DEFENSE

What’s next for Congress on Iran?

The Senate will vote today around 4 p.m. to curb President Donald Trump’s ongoing military campaign in Iran. That bipartisan war powers resolution from Sens. Tim Kaine (D-Va.) and Rand Paul (R-Ky.) is all-but-guaranteed to fail.

A handful of undecided GOP senators — Sens. Susan Collins (Maine), Lisa Murkowski (Alaska) and Todd Young (Ind.) — refused to tip their hands ahead of time on how they’ll vote. But it’s clear there won’t be enough GOP support for the measure to pass.

This Senate vote comes at a pivotal moment for Congress in the now five-day-old war.

Even as the scale and scope of the Iran campaign is still unclear, lawmakers are beginning to grapple with a potential supplemental funding package needed to pay for it. Plus, there are questions about whether Congress will need to replenish U.S. munitions stockpiles or provide additional assistance to evacuate Americans from the region.

New funding request? During a pair of classified Hill briefings Tuesday, senior Trump administration officials didn’t directly ask for more funding. But lawmakers from both parties said they expect a request to come at some point soon, especially if the military operations last several more weeks at this heavy tempo.

Senate Armed Services Committee Chair Roger Wicker (R-Miss.) said “it’s too early” to say if a supplemental would be needed, but he noted it’s “very possible.”

House Appropriations Committee Chair Tom Cole (R-Okla.) said the Pentagon was “working on” a supplemental funding request but didn’t provide details beyond that.

The Pentagon has resources to draw from through the FY2026 defense appropriations bill, as well as $150 billion-plus approved for the Defense Department under last year’s GOP-only reconciliation package. Senators from both parties said this should be sufficient for now.

But with the White House projecting a potentially weeks-long operation in Iran, the need for additional funding could put Democrats in a tough position. Under the Biden administration, Democrats’ core case for the Ukraine supplementals was that U.S. stockpiles needed to be replenished and modernized.

“This is going to go on for some time… It’s going to deplete a lot of our stocks. It’s going to require a lot of resupply,” said Sen. Andy Kim (D-N.J.). “Undoubtedly, this is going to be something that leaves us at a significant shortage, and I worry about our ability to keep up with other threats around the world.”

Rep. Rosa DeLauro (Conn.), the top Democrat on the House Appropriations Committee, said the Trump administration had no answers to questions about the costs of the operation and when the Pentagon would ask for additional funds.

“I’ve asked about the cost of the operation so far,” DeLauro said. “Could not get an answer.”

Some Democrats said they’d consider supporting a narrow funding bill to aid ongoing evacuations of U.S. citizens from the Middle East, which have been chaotic.

“If there’s a $28 million supplemental that’s narrowly tailored for evacuations of American citizens, I’ll consider it. [But] that’s not what they’re talking about,” Sen. Brian Schatz (D-Hawaii) said.

But if the White House asks for tens of billions of dollars in new money, Schatz said he and other Democrats plan to compare that sum to the cost of renewing the enhanced Obamacare subsidies. Schatz added that his message would be: “They literally did take your health care and give it to a regime-change war.”

Kaine’s not done. Kaine is leading today’s war powers effort. On Thursday, The House will vote on its own measure, co-sponsored by Reps. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.) and Thomas Massie (R-Ky.). It, too, is expected to fail.

Kaine said he could refile a war powers resolution targeting Iran if conditions on the ground change. Alternatively, he could push for language in appropriations bills or offer amendments to pending legislation.

“It’s not a one-and-done,” Kaine said. “[This vote] will be the first effort of all Congress going on the record about this. But I can assure you it’s not going to be the last.”

— Anthony Adragna, Briana Reilly and Andrew Desiderio

OVERSIGHT WATCH

After Noem’s Senate grilling, the House awaits

Department of Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem received an unexpected grilling from Senate Republicans on the Judiciary Committee during Tuesday’s hearing. But Noem, who’s testifying again Wednesday, is likely to receive a smoother reception from House Judiciary Committee Republicans.

On Tuesday, Sens. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) and John Kennedy (R-La.) pressed Noem in a manner more typical of Democrats during this administration. Tillis vowed to hold up en bloc nominations if Noem ignored his oversight requests, while Kennedy asked tough questions about her role in a controversial DHS ad campaign.

We don’t expect there to be similar GOP-on-GOP sparring with Noem at House Judiciary today, apart from frequent White House antagonist Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.).

We’re told that House Judiciary Republican staff instructed committee members to focus on supporting President Donald Trump’s DHS guidance and slamming former President Joe Biden’s handling of the agency.

“I remember what it was like under President Biden and Secretary [Alejandro] Mayorkas,” House Judiciary Committee Chair Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) said. “It was three years ago, [Mayorkas] told us in a hearing — in that same room where [Noem] would be tomorrow — told us that the border was secure, which you could just laugh at.”

Democratic view. Ranking Member Jamie Raskin (D-Md.) said Democrats “have serious questions about American citizens being shot down in American cities by ICE agents.”

At the Senate hearing Tuesday, Noem refused to apologize for claiming Renee Good and Alex Pretti — two Americans killed by federal agents in Minneapolis — were involved in “domestic terrorism.”

Remember this too. There’s still no DHS funding as the department shutdown stretches into its 18th day. Sen. Katie Britt (R-Ala.) told us Tuesday that rank-and-file senators have quietly begun meeting among themselves in a bid to find a way out of the logjam.

— Max Cohen and John Bresnahan

AND THERE’S MORE

Staff news. Griffin Neal will be Speaker Mike Johnson’s new press secretary. Neal is replacing Athina Lawson, who went to the Treasury Department. Neal has been with Johnson since 2020. He started as Johnson’s driver.

Ad campaign: The Campaign for America First International Assistance is spending $500,000 on an ad buy boosting Reps. Zach Nunn (R-Iowa) and Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-Iowa). The ad campaign is meant to remind GOP voters that international aid boosts the U.S. economy.

The spots tell voters to thank the vulnerable House Republicans for “standing with Iowa farmers and saving starving kids.”

Endorsement: Sen. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.) is endorsing San Francisco Supervisor Connie Chan’s campaign in California’s 11th District. Chan is running to succeed retiring Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.).

Launch pad. Seth Bodnar, the former University of Montana president, is launching an independent campaign against Sen. Steve Daines (R-Mont.).

Bodnar is a former Green Beret. Check out his launch video here. We’ll note that Daines, the 2024 NRSC chair who won back the majority in the Senate, is unlikely to be caught off guard.

— Max Cohen and Ally Mutnick

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