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Happy Thursday morning.

Ketanji Brown Jackson is on the cusp of history.

The 51-year-old is about to become the first Black woman confirmed as a Supreme Court justice. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer announced that he expected the vote to take place at around 1:45 p.m. today.

And as it rushes toward the two-week Easter recess, the Senate will also vote on two high-profile measures to strip Russia and Belarus of their preferential trade status and codify the ban on Russian oil imports into the United States. Both bills will now head back to the House, which could take them up as early as today, per House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer.

But Jackson’s ascension to the Supreme Court, of course, is the big story of the day, week and month for President Joe Biden and Schumer. Jackson will replace the retiring Justice Stephen Breyer, who she clerked for back in 1999-2000.

For Biden, a long time chair of the Senate Judiciary Committee, he’s now pulled off the unprecedented feat of both naming and overseeing the confirmation of a Supreme Court justice. It’s a huge moment too for Schumer, who has had to endure a 50-50 Senate longer than any majority leader in history.

“It will be a joyous day: joyous for the Senate, joyous for the Supreme Court, joyous for America,” Schumer said on the floor Wednesday night, repeating a theme he’s pushed since it became clear Jackson would be confirmed. “While we still have a long way to go, America tomorrow will take a giant step to becoming a more perfect nation.”

We’ve said this before, and we’re repeating it again here – Jackson’s confirmation means that for the first time in U.S. history, white men won’t be the majority on the Supreme Court. This is an enormous change for the high court, which for the first 170-plus years of its existence had only white men as justices. Four of the justices will be women once Jackson takes her seat. Two of them will be moms. As Biden said when he nominated Jackson, the Supreme Court will begin to look more like America – and we’ll add: But only if everybody went to Harvard or Yale for law school.

This is also a win for Senate Judiciary Committee Chair Dick Durbin. The 77-year-old Durbin handled Jackson’s confirmation in the same low-key manner that he has for pretty much everything else, and it worked. The Illinois Democrat was quietly effective, and he pushed back hard on Republicans when he needed to without overplaying his hand.

Here are some other points to consider:

→	Biden’s big bet on Jackson worked. Jackson’s confirmation to the Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit in June 2021 was seen as a dress rehearsal for a possible Supreme Court nomination. That’s exactly what it turned out to be.

GOP Sens. Susan Collins (R-Maine) and Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) backed Jackson for the appeals court last summer, and they’re backing her for the Supreme Court now. Democrats lost Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), who wanted another nominee – J. Michelle Childs – but they picked up Sen. Mitt Romney (R-Utah). The outcome then was a 53-44 vote. It will be very close to the outcome now.

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Durbin was right. Even before Jackson was nominated, Durbin noted that a nominee who had recently been vetted by the Judiciary panel – or was going through the process – would be easier to confirm, a requirement that Jackson easily met. We’re not saying Durbin was calling for Biden to pick Jackson, but he certainly made clear to anyone who would listen that she’d be the ideal candidate for Democrats in a 50-50 Senate.

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Jackson won’t change the ideological makeup of the court. While Jackson’s confirmation is historic, it won’t change the ideological balance on the high court. And that took away much of the heat from this fight. Conservatives have a 6-3 majority on the court. With upcoming decisions on abortion, guns, religion and other cultural touchstones, that conservative majority will continue to put its imprint on the country.

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The White House and Senate Democrats handled the confirmation efficiently. Jackson was nominated on Feb. 25. Today is April 7th. That’s 42 days from start to finish. It’s not quite Amy Coney Barrett fast, but it’s fast by any historical standard. It’s also very close to the 40-day timeline Biden set out originally.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine and Sen. Ben Ray Lujan’s (D-N.M.) health problems didn’t derail the confirmation process either. Lujan, thankfully, has recovered from his stroke and will be voting for Jackson’s confirmation today.

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Early outreach to Collins, Murkowksi and Romney paid off. Biden and Durbin reached out to Collins and Murkowski even before the president selected a nominee. Romney was also seen as a potential “yes” vote by Durbin and the White House. Substance matters to these GOP senators. They’re comfortable discussing policy, and the fact that Jackson is obviously well qualified for the post made it easier to back her. What was important was not making the process feel rushed either. Collins voted against now Justice Amy Coney Barrett in 2020 because she disagreed with how quickly her nomination was rushed through the Senate.

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Jackson’s confirmation was never really in doubt. There was little chance that Jackson would fail to get the support of all 50 Senate Democrats, but the White House and Schumer weren’t taking any chances. Sen. Joe Manchin’s (D-W.Va.) opposition has helped tank several of Biden’s nominees, including Sarah Bloom Raskin’s return to the Federal Reserve, so Democratic leaders paid close attention to his comments.

Yet Manchin voted for Jackson’s appointment to the appeals court last summer. He was also a senator when she first became a federal district judge in 2013. The Senate confirmed her by voice vote on that occasion.

Once Manchin announced his support for Jackson on March 25, Jackson’s rise to the Supreme Court was all but assured. The only question was how many GOP votes there would be.

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The child pornography controvery was ugly and backfired on GOP. We were surprised that Jackson didn’t handle GOP questions very well over the sentences she handed down for defendants in several child pornography cases. Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) was particularly effective on this issue during his opening round of questioning. There was quiet grumbling from several Judiciary Committee Democrats about why Jackson wasn’t better prepared for Hawley’s inquiries, especially since the Missouri Republican had publicly declared his intentions.

Yet the repeated grilling of Jackson on the topic in a combative, even dismissive way by other Republicans ended up damaging the GOP cause. By the second day of questioning, Durbin refused to delay the proceedings as Republican senators demanded more information on these cases. Jackson – unfailingly polite – declined to respond to their harsh questions. These tactics may have played well for the 2024 Republican presidential hopefuls with conservative media outlets, but it actually aided Jackson. There was a definite backlash with Judiciary Democrats and progressive allies outside Congress. Sen. Cory Booker’s (D-N.J.) emotional interaction with Jackson was the highlight of the hearings for many.

Reminder: Join us in person in Detroit or tune in virtually to watch our conversation with Senate Homeland Security Committee and DSCC Chair Sen. Gary Peters (D-Mich.) Friday morning at 9 a.m. E.T. RSVP here.

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