The Archive

IN THIS EDITION

Johnson made it to 5 months. Can he last 6?

Israel faces huge moment with US over Rafah

K Street leaders think Tim Scott will be Trump’s running mate

Golf, wine and sunshine: House Democrats’ big fundraising week

THE TOP

Johnson made it to 5 months. Can he last 6?

Happy Monday morning.

And happy April! We only have AM editions this week. We’ll be back with three editions every day starting next Monday. In the meantime, sign up for Punchbowl News text alerts for all your breaking news needs.

The House and Senate are out of session again this week. President Joe Biden is in Washington all week.

Today we’re going to do a Leader Look. We’ll focus on Speaker Mike Johnson and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries. We’ll follow up tomorrow with Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and Minority Leader Mitch McConnell.

Mike Johnson: Congratulations to Speaker Johnson on your five-month anniversary. Now we’ll see if you can make it to six.

Johnson is spending the week in California fundraising for House Republicans. Yes, the same super-blue California that Republicans dump all over for being a liberal hellscape. Their money is still green!

As you recall, Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) filed a motion to vacate the chair before the House left town on March 22. Hardline conservatives were furious over the passage of the $1.2 trillion minibus spending package, the final details of which were negotiated in secret between Johnson’s office and top White House officials. MTG called her motion “a warning and a pink slip” for the speaker. Johnson said Sunday on Fox News that he and MTG “exchanged text messages even today. We’re going to talk early next week.”

Johnson must take this threat very seriously after what happened to former Speaker Kevin McCarthy, although there’s nowhere near the personal enmity for the Louisiana Republican as there was with his predecessor.

Johnson — who’ll be down to a one-vote margin soon — has been eager to move on from high-stakes legislating. But consider what Johnson has in the offing over the critical April-May period:

1) Ukraine. Johnson has said he wants to pass Ukraine funding, but he hasn’t said how. This is a dangerous issue for Johnson. The speaker could end up facing a MTV if he moves without solidifying support on his right. Johnson said on Fox News that he will move a bill when the House returns from its recess.

Internally, Johnson’s staff recognize they have no real good options here. The House could take up the $95 billion Senate bill, something very close to the Senate bill with some “innovations,” or a bipartisan discharge petition. Johnson will have to rely on House Democrats if he moves forward on this issue. Which is why he has little leverage to add other policies in. The key for Johnson is finding the least painful option — meaning the one that lets him keep his job.

2) Biden impeachment inquiry. The House Republican pursuit of Biden is fizzling to a close. There aren’t the votes there to impeach the president, and everyone knows it.

Yet Johnson will have to tread carefully here again so he doesn’t alienate former President Donald Trump and his allies. Facing an unprecedented criminal trial in two weeks, Trump wants Biden impeached, and his supporters want a floor vote. But if that vote fails, Biden would be strengthened politically.

3) FISA needs renewal by April 19. Johnson is relying on negotiations between House Judiciary Committee Chair Jim Jordan and House Intelligence Committee Chair Mike Turner — both of Ohio — to yield an agreement. Yet getting them to cut a deal isn’t going to be easy at all. There is a real ideological split here that cuts across party lines.

4) Francis Scott Key Bridge/disaster supplemental. The Biden administration is going to ask for upwards of $1 billion to respond to the FSK emergency and other priorities. In the mix is money for other disasters and expiring programs, including the Affordable Connectivity Program.

Hakeem Jeffries: We’ll put it bluntly — Jeffries is as powerful a House minority leader as could be. With Johnson on his way to a one-vote margin, the New York Democrat holds a lot of cards, if he’s able to play them. Jeffries has a ton of leverage on every bill considering the dysfunctional Republican Conference.

The House Democratic leader will be in Florida this week for an abortion-related event and to raise money, according to aides.

Jeffries, though, faces doubts about whether he can lead his caucus back into the majority. There’s growing chatter that with a weakened Biden at the top of the ticket and only a small number of House seats in play, Democrats face a potential nightmare scenario — Trump back in the White House, a GOP-run Senate and House. It could happen, don’t underestimate it.

But consider this: Jeffries’ DCCC is shellacking Johnson and the NRCC. The NRCC has $45 million on hand and raised $8.1 million last month. The DCCC has $59 million and raised $14 million last month. Johnson can take solace in the fact that CLF, the House Republican super PAC, has $51 million in the bank. HMP, the Democratic counterpart, has $43 million.

— John Bresnahan and Jake Sherman

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WASHINGTON X THE WORLD

Israel faces huge moment with US over Rafah

As the crisis in Rafah grows more serious by the day, President Joe Biden continues to struggle with how to respond amid growing pressure from lawmakers in his own party. And the situation isn’t made any easier by the continued instability inside Israel, where Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government lurches from crisis to crisis.

Netanyahu underwent surgery on Sunday for a hernia, the Israeli government said. Deputy Prime Minister Yariv Levin — also the justice minister — was forced to temporarily assume power. Netanyahu is expected to make a full recovery.

The emergency surgery took place amid growing protests in Tel Aviv over Netanyahu’s government and exemptions for ultra-Orthodox Jewish men from a nationwide military draft. Media reports described it as the largest protest since the war began. The Israeli government has called up hundreds of thousands of reservists and civilian draftees in the wake of the Oct. 7 terrorist attacks by Hamas, but Ultra-Orthodox Jewish men have long been exempt.

Israel also faces a critical moment in the brutal military campaign against Hamas. More than 1.5 million Palestinians have fled to the southern Gaza city of Rafah as the Israeli military seeks to crush Hamas and other militant organizations behind the Oct. 7 attack.

But with Palestinian civilian deaths already topping 30,000, Biden and top administration officials — as well as other world leaders — are pressing Netanyahu to hold off on the Rafah offensive.

The Biden administration refused to block a U.N. resolution last week calling for a Gaza ceasefire. Netanyahu then canceled an Israeli delegation from traveling to Washington to discuss the Rafah crisis. However, U.S. and Israeli officials are expected to hold a virtual meeting on Monday, Axios reported.

The view from Democrats: Biden’s allies are continuing to slam Netanyahu as U.S. public opinion of Israel’s military operation sours. Appearing on NBC’s “Meet the Press,” Rep. Jim Clyburn (D-S.C.) said Netanyahu “sold his soul to the right-wingers in Israel in order to maintain power for himself.”

“Biden is for a two-state solution. Democrats are for a two-state solution. It is the only way for us to move forward,” Clyburn added. “And so this drop in support has nothing to do with the people of Israel and everything to do with Netanyahu.”

Netanyahu claimed during a pre-surgery press conference on Sunday that Israeli Defense Forces are prepared to remove more than one million Palestinian civilians from Rafah prior to any military operation.

“It’s the right thing to do operationally and internationally,” Netanyahu told reporters. “It takes time, but it will be done.”

Despite the frostiness between Biden and Netanyahu personally — as well as protests in both countries over Gaza — the U.S. government continues to supply Israel with massive amounts of military equipment. This comes as Israel presses forward in Gaza while simultaneously stepping up airstrikes in Syria and southern Lebanon aimed at Iran-backed Hezbollah units.

Some Democrats, like Sen. Chris Van Hollen of Maryland, have directly urged Biden to use the United States’ leverage — in the form of weapons transfers — to pressure Israel to change course in Gaza.

But the Washington Post reported Friday that the White House “quietly authorized the transfer of billions of dollars in bombs and fighter jets to Israel despite Washington’s concerns about an anticipated military offensive in southern Gaza that could threaten the lives of hundreds of thousands of Palestinian civilians.”

Congress also approved $3.8 billion in new military aid for Israel as part of the minibus spending package that was passed prior to the Easter recess. Of that total, $3.3 billion is under the Foreign Military Financing program and must be disbursed within 30 days. The remaining $500 million is for the Iron Dome program, as well as ballistic missile defense research.

Implications for Ukraine aid: With the United States continuing to supply Israel with military equipment, does this change the political dynamics for a Ukraine package?

The massive $95 billion foreign aid package passed by the Senate included funding for Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan. Israel still needs lots of economic support, but on the military side, it just received billions more from the U.S. government. Tying Israel and Ukraine funding together was one of the keys to passing the Ukraine aid. If there’s less of an emergency situation for Israel, this isn’t going to help the pro-Ukraine argument.

— John Bresnahan and Andrew Desiderio

K Street leaders think Tim Scott will be Trump’s running mate

A majority of K Street leaders — 54% — believe Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.) will be former President Donald Trump’s running mate in 2024, according to our latest survey of downtowners.

Scott ran his own brief presidential campaign before dropping out and endorsing Trump. The top Republican on the Senate Banking Committee, Scott is seen as a rising star in GOP politics.

A Scott VP pick would indicate Trump is aiming to appeal to as many Black voters as possible at a time when some are souring on President Joe Biden’s performance.

Trump has a long list of possible contenders to pick from based on the number of MAGA loyalists who’ve been sending all the right signals in recent months.

South Dakota GOP Gov. Kristi Noem is seen by K Street leaders as Trump’s second-most likely running mate, according to the survey conducted March 4-22 in partnership with independent public affairs firm, LSG.

House GOP Conference Chair Elise Stefanik came in third in our survey of top lobbyists.

Respondents placed Arkansas GOP Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders and Sen. J.D. Vance (R-Ohio) in the fourth and fifth places respectively.

Want to take part in The Canvass? Our survey provides anonymous monthly insights from top Capitol Hill staffers and K Street leaders on key issues Washington is contending with. Sign up here if you work on K Street. Click here to sign up if you’re a senior congressional staffer.

— Max Cohen

THE MONEY GAME

Golf, wine and sunshine: House Democrats’ big fundraising week

Do you want House Democrats to win the majority? Do you like spending thousands of dollars to hang with members of Congress, with the hope that they might hear you on the one or two issues you care about?

Terrific. Get your checkbooks ready.

April 4: Rep. Jimmy Panetta (D-Calif.) has a PAC trip at The Lodge at Pebble Beach. It will cost you $2,500 per golfer. Now listen, this may be a pretty decent value. Greens fees at Pebble are north of $600. If you get a round on Spanish Bay and Spyglass, Panetta is coming through for you. We hope you have better weather than we did.

April 5: In the mood for some wine with a Democrat from Wisconsin? Rep. Gwen Moore (D-Wis.) is hosting an event at The Lodge at Sonoma Resort. Tickets here will range from $1,500 to $5,000.

April 7: Do you want to hang out with Reps. Jared Moskowitz (D-Fla.) and Josh Gottheimer (D-N.J.) in Miami? What could be better than that? And then you can follow that up with a PAC trip for Gottheimer’s Jersey Values PAC over the weekend.

— Jake Sherman

THE CAMPAIGN

News: Democrat Janelle Stelson, who is seeking to unseat Rep. Scott Perry (R-Pa.), is up with her first TV ad of the cycle. The spot focuses on access to IVF and access to abortion rights. You should expect many, many more ads like these from Democrats in competitive seats:

Recent polling showed Stelson with a lead over her primary rivals in the 10th District. Stelson, a former broadcast journalist, has been endorsed by EMILYs List, the New Dem Action Fund and Elect Democratic Women PAC.

Conservative Outsider PAC, which hasn’t filed on who its donors are, is running an ad on behalf of a new Hatch for Senate in Utah: Brent Orrin Hatch. If that name sounds familiar, that’s because it’s the son of former longtime Utah GOP Sen. Orrin Hatch.

Engage Federal PAC has a new spot up in Pittsburgh backing Rep. Summer Lee (D-Pa.). The spot says attacks on Lee are paid for by supporters of former President Donald Trump and “election deniers.” Lee’s seat is a solid Democratic seat, per our friends at the Cook Political Report with Amy Walter. But Lee faces a primary challenge from Bhavini Patel. The ad tries to remind voters that unions and the Democratic Party — including House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries — are behind Lee.

— Jake Sherman and Max Cohen

MOMENTS

CLIPS