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IN THIS EDITION

The winner of this Congress? Joe Biden

Senate could move fast on foreign aid package

Dems plot to beat Perry in Pennsylvania

Joyce on Johnson, Ukraine funding and 5G

THE TOP

The winner of this Congress? Joe Biden

Happy Monday morning.

House Republicans came into the 118th Congress with big plans. They were going to cut taxes and spending, impeach President Joe Biden and members of his Cabinet and use their leverage to force Democrats to accept stringent new border security and immigration policies. In short, they were going to shake up Washington, with Biden as their main focus.

That didn’t happen.

Instead, Biden has gotten pretty much everything he’s asked for from this Congress without having to concede much in return. True, it’s taken a while as the dysfunctional House slowly churned its way through the past 15-plus months.

Yet in the end, Biden has emerged as the big winner. On government funding, on FISA, and now on Ukraine and Israel, Biden got what he wanted.

The president hasn’t gone unscathed. Hunter and James Biden have been deposed as part of the House GOP impeachment inquiry into the Biden family’s finances. The Afghanistan investigation showed a dangerous disconnect between the State and Defense departments. Republicans have crushed the administration over the problems at the U.S.-Mexico border, forcing a shift in White House policy.

But House Republicans paid a much higher price due to their internal discord and dissension. GOP lawmakers have ousted one speaker while another may be forced to turn to Democrats to remain in power. And it gets worse from there:

→	In May 2023, Biden cut a debt-limit and spending deal with then-Speaker Kevin McCarthy. Biden gave a bit, agreeing to essentially a spending cap that progressives dislike, in return for a two-year increase in the debt limit. But the agreement cost McCarthy his job.

→	Speaker Mike Johnson kept those spending levels in place. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and the White House held firm against poison-pill amendments in the 2024 spending bills that could’ve caused a shutdown.

→	Biden will get the $60 billion-plus in Ukraine aid he’s sought, although it’s coming months late and with battlefield consequences. The White House didn’t have to accept new restrictions on Ukraine funding, aside from some of it being deemed a “loan.”

→	Republicans impeached Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas only to see it quickly dismissed by the Democratic-run Senate.

→	The Biden impeachment inquiry is fizzling out.

→	Johnson and former President Donald Trump killed a bipartisan Senate border security and immigration deal, despite the ongoing crisis at the U.S.-Mexico border. This has given some political space for Biden and Democrats on this issue.

→	And when they return to Capitol Hill next week, House Republicans will be down to a one-vote margin of control for a while as the GOP conference seethes.

House Republicans are openly attacking each other on the floor and in public. Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.), who has vowed to push Johnson out, has spent the weekend lashing out at his colleagues, including fellow Kentucky Republican, Rep. Andy Barr, who represents an adjoining district. Rep. Tony Gonzales (R-Texas) said he served with some “real scumbags” during a Sunday interview on CNN’s “State of the Union,” and he mentioned Reps. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.) and Bob Good (R-Va.) by name.

Of course, having a Democrat-controlled Senate has helped the White House hold the line against a GOP House. Schumer was able to keep Democrats together on the big issues, including spending bills and the Mayorkas trial. It was the same for House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries and his colleagues.

Yet the problem for House Republicans really began at the start of this Congress. McCarthy’s grueling 15-vote battle in January 2023 to get the speaker’s gavel resulted in him giving unprecedented concessions to the Freedom Caucus, including putting Massie and Reps. Chip Roy (R-Texas) and Ralph Norman (R-S.C.) on the Rules Committee.

But instead of “democratizing” the House as the HFC wanted, these concessions undermined McCarthy and then Johnson while playing into Democrats’ hands. The Rules Committee — the speaker’s vehicle for controlling the floor — is broken. Hardline conservatives have repeatedly blocked GOP legislation because they didn’t think it went far enough.

Eventually, Biden, Schumer and Democrats — joined by moderate Republicans — stepped in to form a governing coalition as the House GOP leadership faltered.

The all-or-nothing nature of the GOP internal politics has ensured that Republicans haven’t puled off any real legislative achievements, as Roy has told everyone repeatedly. Conservatives don’t take half-victories. They reject strategies that could lead to small wins. But ideological purity isn’t a winning play for a congressional majority.

At the outset of this Congress, Democrats’ goal was to prevent the GOP from enacting their agenda all while trying to fulfill Biden’s commitments on the world stage, most notably to provide for Ukraine’s long-term security. For months, it appeared as if the latter was close to over.

Democrats also expected that Senate Republicans would instinctively back up House GOP leaders and potentially make it impossible to send must-pass legislation to Biden’s desk.

That turned out not to be the case on some of the major fights, including on FY2024 appropriation bills and the foreign aid package that’ll be sent to the president later this week. Senate Republican leaders ultimately recognized that the House GOP’s negotiating positions on both were untenable.

— Andrew Desiderio, Jake Sherman and John Bresnahan

THE SENATE

Senate could move fast on foreign aid package

The Senate is on a glide path to approving the House’s $95 billion aid package for Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan — and maybe even quicker than you’d think.

Senate leaders are looking to speed up final passage of the House bill, which includes a prospective ban of TikTok and the REPO Act. That authorizes the sale of seized Russian assets.

The first roll-call votes on the package are scheduled for early Tuesday afternoon, including a vote to invoke cloture. This starts the 30-hour clock before final passage unless there’s an agreement to vote earlier.

Keep in mind: Senators are already losing part of the scheduled recess this week, so there’s little desire to keep everyone in town through Wednesday night when the 30-hour clock would run out. That could mean cutting a deal on amendment votes if senators are determined to hold the floor, although they can only do so for an hour each.

Senators who oppose the package have demanded votes on a number of amendments and procedural motions. These include:

→	Sen. Rick Scott’s (R-Fla.) motion to refer the bill to the Appropriations Committee to add Israel-related provisions.

→	Sen. Mike Lee’s (R-Utah) amendment to ensure that the “loan” provisions for Ukraine are repaid and go toward paying down the national debt.

→	Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) has said he’ll offer amendments centered on the Israel portion of the package.

These amendments will all be rejected, and the underlying bill is expected to easily clear the 60-vote threshold. The vast majority of the Senate Democratic Caucus and roughly half the GOP conference will vote for it.

That split among Republicans has been the primary cause of the months-long delay in passing the aid package. The issue of Ukraine in particular has deeply divided the party.

Those divisions played out on the Sunday shows, with Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) calling out Sen. J.D. Vance (R-Ohio) for his opposition to U.S. aid for Ukraine.

Appearing on “Fox News Sunday,” Graham said Vance’s arguments are “garbage” and invited the Ohio Republican to visit Ukraine.

“Quit talking about things you don’t know anything about until you go,” Graham said.

— Andrew Desiderio

CAMPAIGNS 2024

Dems plot to beat Perry in Pennsylvania

House Democrats are lining up behind Janelle Stelson to take on former House Freedom Caucus Chair Scott Perry (R-Pa.) in November.

But first Stelson has to defeat roughly half a dozen other Democrats vying for the nomination on Tuesday. Her main challenger is Mike O’Brien, a retired Marine officer who has a fundraising advantage.

Stelson, a former TV news anchor in central Pennsylvania, said she wants to woo moderate Republicans who are turned off by Perry’s ultra-conservatism.

“I loved my job as a journalist. It took a lot for me to want to leave that job,” Stelson told us. “But after seeing how bad Scott Perry is on almost every issue, I’ve had Republicans coming up to me left and right saying, ‘You take him down, girl.’”

O’Brien, meanwhile, is running on his military experience. He’s also highlighting Perry’s efforts to contest the 2020 election.

“[Perry] is really not dedicated to not only democracy, but he doesn’t represent the people in the district,” O’Brien told us.

This is the first cycle Democrats really see Pennsylvania’s 10th District as a viable pickup, despite targeting Perry previously. The district currently leans R+4.

Democrats are hoping to capitalize on what they consider a favorable political climate while taking advantage of Perry’s fundraising vulnerabilities. Perry has a little more than $500,000 cash on hand. But Perry has also been plagued by hefty legal fees related to his lawsuit against the federal government.

Congressional support: Stelson has the strongest congressional backing so far. She is endorsed by the New Democrat Coalition’s campaign arm and has received donations from Reps. Nikki Budzinski (D-Ill.) and Gerry Connolly (D-Va.).

Rep. Matt Cartwright (D-Pa.) hosted a delegation breakfast for her, although he hasn’t formally endorsed anyone in the primary.

“She seems to be in it for the right reasons and she seems to be a hard worker and a viable candidate,” Cartwright said of Stelson.

Rep. Madeleine Dean (D-Pa.), who has met Stelson, is closely watching this race.

“There’s an opportunity,” Dean told us. “With choice on the ballot, with disinformation and lies on the ballot, we have a really good chance to get more Democrats.”

O’Brien has the backing of Rep. Seth Moulton (D-Mass.) and former Pennsylvania Democratic Rep. Conor Lamb.

Perry’s response: Perry has improved his margins of victory in every general election since 2018.

“You always have to work hard to earn it. I always do,” Perry said. “[Democrats] target me every single time and every single time, they tell everybody that this is the end because they’re going to win. But they don’t seem to be right so far, so I don’t know why I would start listening to them now.”

Several of Perry’s colleagues in the Freedom Caucus also said they would help him out financially if needed.

“I will help Scott in any way,” Rep. Ralph Norman (R-S.C.) told us.

Reps. Andy Ogles (R-Tenn.), Eric Burlison (R-Mo.) and Josh Brecheen (R-Okla.) — three HFC freshmen who came up under Perry’s leadership — said they’d do whatever they could to keep him in office.

— Mica Soellner

PUNCHBOWL NEWS EVENTS

Joyce on Johnson, Ukraine funding and 5G

Did you miss our conversation with Rep. John Joyce (R-Pa.) on Thursday?

Joyce told us he supports changes to the House’s motion to vacate rules as Speaker Mike Johnson faces opposition from his right flank.

Joyce also discussed the current foreign funding bills and called for U.S. leadership on 5G.

You can watch the full conversation here.

… AND THERE’S MORE

The Campaign: Vulnerable Democratic Rep. Gabe Vasquez (N.M.) is running a new online video hitting his GOP opponent — former Rep. Yvette Herrell (N.M.) — on her abortion stances. The spot features Herrell touting her “100% pro-life voting record” during a 2020 candidate forum.

Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.) is up on the air in his district with a 30-second spot that’s focused solely on former President Donald Trump’s praise for the Florida Republican.

Protect Freedom PAC is running a new ad with Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) boosting Rep. Bob Good (R-Va.) in his primary. Good is facing John McGuire in the June 18 primary.

Former SBA Administrator Linda McMahon contributed $5 million to Make America Great Again Inc., a Trump-linked group. Reynolds American donated $2.5 million.

Downtown Download: Brian Ballard and the Ballard Group have signed up to lobby for Comcast on “issues related to broadband.”

Blackstone, the private equity giant with a big presence in D.C., has signed Colton Street Group and John O’Neill to lobby on financial services, business tax issues and “issues related to music policy.”

Boeing has signed The Doerrer Group and Paul Doerrer, a former Senate Appropriations Committee staffer, to lobby on “issues related to commercial airplanes.”

Update: TikTok has disclosed $190,000 in first-quarter lobbying so far. The platform spent $110,000 with Dentons, and, according to a filing made public Friday, it spent $80,000 with Mehlman Consulting.

— Jake Sherman and Max Cohen

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