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Israel weapons bill a problem for Democrats

Will Trone’s big spending prove decisive in Maryland?

The Vault: Replacing Gruenberg is no sure thing

Top W&M Dem on tax pay-fors and the corporate rate

THE TOP

Israel weapons bill a problem for Democrats

Happy Tuesday morning.

Another week, another tricky vote on Israel for House Democrats.

The House Republican leadership will put a bill on the floor Wednesday that forces lawmakers to take a position on condemning President Joe Biden for pausing “certain arms transfers to Israel as Israel faces unprecedented threats.”

The GOP-drafted legislation calls on the Biden administration to allow previously approved arms transfers “to proceed quickly.” And it also requires the administration to “utilize all congressionally appropriated funds for security assistance for Israel as Congress intended.”

Speaker Mike Johnson and GOP leaders have gotten somewhat adept at putting House Democrats in a bind over Israel as the war in Gaza continues.

The controversy here involves Biden’s decision to block the transfer of heavy bombs to Israel as Israeli forces continue their assault on the southern Gaza city of Rafah. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has vowed to go ahead with the offensive despite the U.S. opposition.

With Capitol Hill in an uproar over the issue, nearly every single House Republican is expected to support this bill, which is being considered under a rule and will only need a simple majority for passage.

House Democratic leadership sources say as many as 40 lawmakers could vote for the bill, which would be a stunning rebuke of the president. With lawmakers not returning to Washington until today, it’s been hard for House Democratic leaders to get a fix on how many votes they’ll lose — or what level of pressure they need to apply to flip them.

It remains to be seen how heavily the White House engages in trying to whip Democrats against this bill. It wouldn’t surprise us to see the White House release a Statement of Administration Policy to help move the needle among Democrats.

Here’s what White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said Monday:

The Israeli government isn’t lobbying House Democrats on this bill, according to multiple sources familiar with the issue.

But let’s be clear: The Israeli Defense Forces are proceeding with the Rafah operation against the White House’s recommendation. Biden ordered the Pentagon not to provide Israel with 3,500 heavy aerial bombs over fears of a new wave of Palestinian casualties. More than 30,000 Palestinians have died in the conflict, which began following Hamas’ terror attacks on Israel on Oct. 7.

Egypt has heavily criticized the Israeli move, as has Jordan’s King Abdullah II, who met with Biden in Washington last week. Qatari officials, the mediator in ceasefire talks between Israel and Hamas, warned the Rafah campaign has set those negotiations “backwards.”

Top administration officials from Biden on down have been remarkably open in venting their frustration with Israel over Rafah and the broader situation in Gaza, an exceptional display of diplomatic displeasure with a key ally.

On Sunday, Secretary of State Antony Blinken warned on NBC’s “Meet The Press” that Israel “is on the trajectory potentially to inherit an insurgency with many armed Hamas left, or, if it leaves, a vacuum filled by chaos, filled by anarchy, and probably refilled by Hamas again.”

However, Jake Sullivan, Biden’s national security adviser, said Monday that U.S. officials don’t believe what is happening in Gaza is a genocide.

“We have been firmly on record rejecting that proposition,” Sullivan said at a White House briefing.

The Israeli government maintains that it has kept the Biden administration in the loop about its plans for Rafah. Sullivan said the IDF told the Biden administration that its operations in Rafah are limited.

“We’ll make our own judgment on that,” Sullivan said. “It’s not a mathematical formula or a mechanical determination. It’s something we will judge based on what we see, and the president will then make his determinations. We have not seen that happen yet.”

— Jake Sherman and John Bresnahan

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Will Trone’s big spending prove decisive in Maryland?

It’s primary day in Maryland and Nebraska. Here are the top storylines we’re tracking.

Which Democrat will take on Hogan: How far does $60 million in spending during a primary get you? We’re about to find out.

The tense Democratic primary campaign between Rep. David Trone (D-Md.) and Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks will come to an end today.

Trone has blanketed Maryland with TV and radio ads — plus a tidal wave of mailers — claiming he’s more electable than Alsobrooks. Alsobrooks, for her part, boasts the support of a majority of top statewide officials. Gov. Wes Moore, Rep. Steny Hoyer (D-Md.) and Sen. Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.) are among Alsobrooks’ key surrogates.

Alsobrooks has raised nearly $7.8 million through April 24. Her campaign has spent nearly $5.9 million. That’s one-tenth of Trone’s spending.

Trone has officially loaned his campaign more than $54 million as of three weeks ago, per FEC records, but the final total is even higher.

The race has turned nasty in its closing weeks as worries mount that either candidate will be locked in a tough general election battle with popular former GOP Gov. Larry Hogan. What was once seen as an easy win for Democrats has some in the party fearing that the DSCC may be forced to divert significant money to defeat Hogan.

Key to Trone’s appeal is that he can pour his own substantial resources into the race, meaning Senate Democratic leaders could steer funds to Ohio, Montana and other races as they try to save their majority. No one has ever spent as much money on a primary as Trone has this year — ever. And with a family fortune estimated as $2 billion-plus, he could spend tens of millions more on the general election.

We’ll note that some Maryland Democrats are privately cautioning that we might not know the final result tonight if the results are close, which we expect them to be. Unless Trone wins in a romp.

Can Harry Dunn make it to the general election? Former U.S. Capitol Police Officer Harry Dunn has been a revelation in his first run for office. Dunn has raised more money than some Senate campaigns, but he faces a tough challenge in Maryland’s 3rd District Democratic primary.

State Sen. Sarah Elfreth is Dunn’s foremost opponent and is benefiting from millions of dollars on TV ads paid for by AIPAC’s super PAC. Elfreth also boasts endorsements from local labor organizations and Sen. Ben Cardin (D-Md.). Dunn has national appeal thanks to his stirring testimony in front of the Jan. 6 committee about his work protecting the Capitol. But we’ve also reported on a 2011 domestic dispute involving Dunn and his then-wife that resulted in his suspension from the force.

Who will succeed Trone in the House? Trone is leaving behind his competitive seat in Maryland’s 6th District. Two main Democrats are the frontrunners in the primary: State legislator Joe Vogel and April McClain Delaney, the wife of former Rep. John Delaney (D-Md.).

What will Don Bacon’s margin look like? In Nebraska’s toss-up 2nd District, incumbent GOP Rep. Don Bacon is facing a right-wing primary challenge from MAGA candidate Dan Frei. Bacon is expected to win, but it will be interesting to see what his margin of victory is. Democratic state Sen. Tony Vargas, who lost narrowly to Bacon in 2022, is waiting for a rematch in November.

— Max Cohen and John Bresnahan

The Vault: Replacing Gruenberg is no sure thing

We’re one day away from federal bank regulators arriving on Capitol Hill to testify publicly. We already know much of the focus will be on Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. Chair Martin Gruenberg, and his performance could determine whether he keeps that job.

In the interim, Washington is doing what it does best: speculating about who could come next. If Gruenberg does step aside, the Biden administration will need to move quickly to find a replacement if it wants to try to salvage Democrats’ financial policy agenda.

Senate nominations are never exactly easy. But this one would be particularly difficult.

The timing: We’re less than six months away from a presidential election. A potential change in White House control being just around the corner will make finding someone willing to take the job that much harder.

The chair of the FDIC is technically an “independent” role with some protection from being fired without cause. Senate-confirmed chairs are given a five-year term, so it’s always a possibility that a regulator will start their tenure under one president and finish it under another.

But in reality, the politics around FDIC leadership have become much more partisan since the Trump administration. Congressional Republicans still haven’t forgiven Democrats for what they called a coup targeting former FDIC Chair Jelena McWilliams, who resigned from the agency in late 2021.

And even if a replacement nomination to lead the FDIC came together quickly, the confirmation process would still take time. How many would-be FDIC chairs would want to endure that process, serve two months in the role, only to have a Republican White House try to fire them in late January? That is a short, short list.

The task: Not a lot of kids grow up dreaming of being the FDIC chair. That makes it a tough role to fill in a pinch, regardless of the circumstances.

The group gets considerably smaller when you consider that most people qualified to lead a federal bank regulator could get paid a lot more in the private sector.

But even setting technical expertise aside, the FDIC’s current crisis will also put a premium on management experience. The roughly 6,000-strong agency is in dire need of transformation. A potential nominee would have to convince the Senate they’re prepared to make those changes happen.

Speaking of lists: There’s a handful of folks that bank lobbyists and other insiders could imagine being under White House consideration for this job.

That includes New York Department of Financial Services Superintendent Adrienne Harris, former Deputy Director of the White House National Economic Council Bharat Ramamurti, former Assistant Treasury Secretary for Financial Institutions Graham Steele and University of California-Irvine Professor Mehrsa Baradaran.

Again: It’s going to be tough to get any of these folks through the vetting and confirmation process anytime soon. If Democrats want to finish much of their financial agenda this year, they might have to hope Gruenberg can hang on tight.

— Brendan Pedersen

2025 TAX FIGHT

Top W&M Dem on tax pay-fors and the corporate rate

It’s no secret that Democrats want to unwind big pieces of the 2017 Trump tax cuts. If they win this November, they’ll have their chance.

We sat down with the top Democrat on the House Ways and Means Committee’s tax subcommittee, Rep. Mike Thompson (Calif.), to talk about the looming tax cliff.

It’s part of our new series talking to influential lawmakers about the heated 2025 tax debate to come and to hear their priorities as they prepare for this fight. Premium policy members got a full Q&A on Monday, but we have a little more to share.

About that corporate rate: When we interviewed Thompson, it was clear that dialing up the corporate income tax rate is at the top of his wish list.

Asked about offsetting any tax package, Thompson criticized the 2017 law, saying it wasn’t sufficiently paid for while also benefiting wealthier households and corporations. “That can’t be tolerated,” he added.

We then followed up specifically on how Thompson would fix those perceived flaws. Here’s what he told us:

There are plenty of eyes right now on the corporate rate, particularly with comments from a top Republican tax writer indicating some interest in raising it.

Democrats tried to raise the corporate rate when they controlled Congress last session but crashed into opposition within their own ranks. Plenty of Democrats would still love to raise the corporate rate, though, and that’s coming through as a 2025 target.

Stay tuned for more: Who else should be on our 2025 tax debate interview list? Reach out!

— Laura Weiss

THE CAMPAIGN

News: Former Rep. Yvette Herrell’s (R-N.M.) campaign is running a new digital ad connecting freshman Rep. Gabe Vasquez (D-N.M.) to “radical” pro-Palestinian campus protests.

The ad cites from Vasquez’s old statements expressing support for the Green New Deal, defunding the police and dismantling U.S. power systems.

“Gabe Vasquez isn’t one of us,” the ad concludes while showing footage of college protests against the war in Gaza. “He’s one of them.”

North Carolina: House Majority Forward, the independent expenditure arm of the top House Democratic super PAC, is backing up vulnerable Rep. Don Davis (D-N.C.) with a new ad.

The ad features constituents hailing Davis for supporting rural broadband expansion and infrastructure efforts.

— Max Cohen

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