The Archive

IN THIS EDITION

Senate GOP promises to preserve the filibuster — even under Trump

What to expect ahead of Gonzales-Herrera primary runoff

The Vault: Tillis has big tax plans for 2025

Hogan: ‘Republicans can’t count on my vote’

THE TOP

Senate GOP promises to preserve the filibuster — even under Trump

Happy Tuesday morning.

Senate Republicans are shouting it from the rooftops: If we win the majority on Election Day, we’ll preserve the filibuster at all costs.

But if former President Donald Trump returns to the White House, are all bets off?

Trump mercilessly begged Senate Republicans to gut the filibuster when he was president — “at least 30 times” by Sen. James Lankford’s (R-Okla.) count.

Trump’s outbursts were borne out of frustration that the 60-vote threshold was blocking key elements of his legislative agenda even when Republicans held the House, Senate and White House during his first two years in office.

And GOP senators acknowledged the inevitably of Trump — if he returns to power, and especially if Republicans control the House as well — nagging them once again to go nuclear.

But Senate Republicans insist they won’t give in.

“The day that Republicans vote to nuke the filibuster is the day I resign from the U.S. Senate,” Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) told us. “That is how strongly I feel about it… We gotta have the courage to stand against [this].”

Senate Minority Whip John Thune, who’s running to replace Mitch McConnell as GOP leader, pledged that Republicans won’t blow up the filibuster. The issue has come up during recent closed-door GOP Conference meetings in the context of the upcoming leadership race.

“Our members are committed to preserving it,” Thune said. “As much as we want to work with Trump… we’re going to have to do it the old-fashioned way and cobble together the types of majorities that enable us to get to the 60-vote threshold.”

Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas), who is running for GOP leader, has made similar statements. Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.), who is seeking both reelection and the top Republican leadership spot, has attacked his Democratic opponent, former Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, for saying she’d carve out an exception for abortion rights in the filibuster.

But that’s in the minority, of course. Most Democrats we talked to suspect that Republicans would immediately go nuclear when it benefits them, especially under pressure from Trump. After all, congressional Republicans have fallen in line behind Trump on issue after issue, and Trump’s grip on the party has only tightened over time.

Of course, Republican senators have resisted Trump’s filibuster pleas before. But both parties have nuked different elements of the filibuster over time — most notably for judicial nominees — so the concern is real. That’s especially true given the impending exit of two of the chamber’s most ardent defenders of the filibuster.

Two years ago, Sens. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) and Kyrsten Sinema (I-Ariz.) stymied a Democratic effort to weaken the filibuster in order to pass a voting rights measure. Both are retiring at the end of this Congress, and there’s a belief that no matter who wins the Senate majority, the filibuster could be toast under the right circumstances.

Manchin told us he’s confident that Republicans will keep their word and maintain the filibuster, citing their resistance to gutting it when Trump pressured them.

“They did that before — they held strong. So I have more faith that they would,” Manchin said.

Of course, the filibuster doesn’t always stand in the way of partisan legislation. The budget reconciliation process allows the party in control of the Senate to pass certain legislation with a simple majority. Think of the Trump-era tax bill as well as the Inflation Reduction Act from President Joe Biden’s first term.

But budget reconciliation is only applicable here when one party controls the House, Senate and White House.

It’s not just Trump who could complicate Republicans’ filibuster promises. Their party’s voters are already agitating for the nuclear option, too.

Lankford, who kept count of how many times Trump called on Senate Republicans to go nuclear, said this issue was especially challenging for him while negotiating the bipartisan border security deal earlier this year.

Lankford noted that many of his constituents criticized him for even talking to Democrats on border policy. Lankford would respond by noting that border-related legislation can’t pass without bipartisan support, so negotiating with Democrats was unavoidable if senators actually wanted to achieve a result.

That inevitably leads to calls to scrap the filibuster and pass legislation that can win a simple majority — with zero support from members of the minority party. It’s difficult to defend the filibuster when GOP voters see it as the chief obstacle to Trump’s agenda. But Republican senators insist they’ll continue to drive home the message.

“When you’re in the Senate you gotta have 60. That means you gotta sit down like grown-ups and have conversations and figure it out. Some people don’t like that,” Lankford said. “[The filibuster is] something uniquely American to have a place in government where both sides have to be heard.”

— Andrew Desiderio

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PRIMARY SEASON

What to expect ahead of Gonzales-Herrera primary runoff

House conservatives fixated on ousting Rep. Tony Gonzales (R-Texas) are sensing that Tuesday’s primary runoff is their moment to pounce.

After failing to crack 50% in the March primary, Gonzales is now stuck in a runoff with pro-gun rights YouTuber Brandon Herrera. Some of Gonzales’ Texas colleagues are concerned that because of the low-turnout nature of the primary runoff, Gonzales’ political future is at risk.

Others say Gonzales is fine and has been working hard to ensure a victory today. Here’s the view on the race from Capitol Hill:

Gonzales in danger: Some Texas Republicans warned that going to a runoff in the Lone Star State is dangerous territory for incumbents.

“Sometimes the second place guy in the original race sometimes gets more votes than the guy who won the original one,” Rep. Roger Williams (R-Texas) told us. “That’s always been kind of historical.”

Gonzales has also made some enemies in his own conference, especially among the right flank who he has publicly criticized.

House Freedom Caucus Chair Bob Good (R-Va.) and Reps. Eli Crane (R-Ariz.), Ralph Norman (R-S.C.) and Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.) have endorsed Herrera.

“It’s always been close with [Gonzales] out there,” Norman told us. “This guy [Herrera] is a serious challenger if anyone can beat him.”

Meanwhile, Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas) said he has stayed out of primaries. But Roy didn’t rule out getting involved in this race because of Gonzales’s critical comments about his colleagues.

“If you attack my friends and make these broad-brush statements, I think that’s highly concerning,” Roy told us.

Gonzales’ allies: It’s clear that Gonzales has a lot more allies than enemies in Congress.

Speaker Mike Johnson held a fundraiser for him in April. Other House members also say they have Gonzales’s back.

“I’m confident he’s going to pull ahead and he’s going to win his runoff,” Rep. Monica De La Cruz (R-Texas) told us. “What the people in D.C. fail to see is Tony is actually working in his district and is very active and visible in his district.”

Rep. Jake Ellzey (R-Texas) said he was angered by his colleagues going after Gonzales. Ellzey said the trend of incumbents seeking to knock off other incumbents is divisive.

“We’re not supposed to do that,” Ellzey told us. “At a time when our majority is thinning, we just don’t do that. If you’re on a team, I consider us to be on the team.”

We’ll note, of course, that Gonzales continues to have a significant fundraising advantage over Herrera and has been hammering out several ads in recent weeks.

We’ll keep you posted on these results.

— Mica Soellner and Max Cohen

The Vault: Tillis has big tax plans for 2025

He’s a newcomer to the Senate Finance Committee but he’s carved out a role as a strong pro-business voice with big ideas about tax reform.

You guessed it, we’re talking about Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.). We sat down with the North Carolina Republican for the second installment of our Q&A series on the expiring Trump tax cuts.

For our Q&A’s, we’re asking key tax writers similar questions and selecting a few to spotlight each time. This interview was edited for length and clarity.

North Carolina pitch: Tillis told us that his priority next year will be crafting tax policies like North Carolina passed in 2013. That included corporate and individual income tax rate cuts and a broader base for sales taxes. But Tillis added that’s harder to do at the federal level.

Here’s where our conversation went from there.

Q: So even though you’re not sure it can get done, you want to see the tax changes made in your state be part of what Republicans discuss?

Tillis: We need to maybe at least start socializing it so that at some point if the timing’s right, we could.

Now the other thing I think next year would be helpful is under the scenario where we run the table and we have control of Congress and the White House, I don’t think we should necessarily march right into reconciliation before we at least give Democrats an opportunity to have a discussion about some of the tax measures that can be permanently authorized versus… some of the constraints that we have within reconciliation.

It’s one of the reasons why I opposed the [Wyden-Smith tax bill] this year. Because I think the child tax credit is one priority that Democrats have that maybe could be used as a way to get them to the table and talk about permanent tax provisions… for some of the ones that are expiring next year.

Q: If this is a bipartisan negotiation next year, what do you think would be the most difficult thing to find agreement on?

Tillis: Corporate tax [rates]. We’ve got a mentality here among liberals that it’s corporate greed and you can just tax corporations. The last time I checked or the last time I advised clients, when their tax burden goes up they either exit a customer base that’s no longer profitable or they charge more for it.

Q: How are you talking to voters about the upcoming tax debate and do you think it will be a factor in this election?

Tillis: I think everybody needs to be educated on why you cut business taxes, why you cut corporate taxes. And they have to understand that you can’t reduce the tax burden on individuals unless you reduce the tax burden on businesses.

And if you can only do one, you have to reduce the tax burden on businesses because those businesses pay incomes, they pay salaries [and] they drive job creation. So you’ve got to go out and explain how you have to have a thriving business community, you have to have a thriving economy in order to fund the individual income tax.

One thing to note: Much of Tillis’ party is right there with him on the corporate rate, but the issue is growing trickier even for some Republicans. We wrote more about that in our Sunday Vault.

— Laura Weiss

MARYLAND WATCH

Hogan: ‘Republicans can’t count on my vote’

News: Former Maryland GOP Gov. Larry Hogan is insisting in a new ad that Republicans can’t take his vote for granted in the Senate.

Hogan’s campaign rolled out its second TV ad of the general election on Tuesday. The goal: Convince Maryland voters that the well-regarded two-term governor will be an independent-minded senator.

“If they want my vote, they will have to do what is right for Maryland — not one political party,” Hogan says direct-to-camera in the ad.

Hogan needs to appeal to a massive chunk of left-leaning voters if he has any chance of beating Democrat Angela Alsobrooks during a presidential cycle in deep blue Maryland.

Democrats, of course, are scoffing at Hogan’s claims. The DSCC started running ads the night of Hogan’s primary win, painting the candidate as a “lifelong Republican.”

— Max Cohen

THE CAMPAIGN

Alabama news: Planned Parenthood and the Congressional Black Caucus PAC are endorsing Democrat Shomari Figures in the newly drawn Black opportunity district in Alabama.

Figures is a former Justice Department aide who is facing Republican Caroleene Dobson in a seat that voted for President Joe Biden by 12 points in 2020. We caught up with Figures to hear his thoughts on the race.

Despite the substantial Democratic lean of the new seat, Figures warned against complacency.

“People need to know that this is a race. This is not a coronation,” Figures said.

While Biden carried the seat, Figures added that Alabama’s GOP Gov. Kay Ivey won the district in 2022.

Alabama’s 2nd District is a significant chance for Democrats to flip a previously GOP-held seat. Given the small House Republican majority, Figures said his election could be the race that gives Hakeem Jeffries the speaker’s gavel.

Rep. Gregory Meeks (D-N.Y.), chair of the CBCPAC, called Figures’ race “mission critical” and said it was a chance to “amplify voices that for too long have gone ignored.”

Senate news: The DSCC is out with a new memo slamming Republican Senate candidates nationwide. The Democratic campaign arm argues that just like in 2022, GOP candidates aren’t up to the task.

The memo features recent critical reporting on the GOP frontrunners in Arizona, Montana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Nevada and Michigan.

“Their lies and liabilities pose major vulnerabilities and will form an important part of the case Democrats will utilize to disqualify GOP Senate candidates with voters in each race,” the memo concludes.

— Max Cohen

MOMENTS

CLIPS