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Happy Tuesday morning.

Welcome back, Congress. We have a few dynamics to lay out for you as lawmakers prepare to take up the Fiscal Responsibility Act. The U.S. government will default on June 5 if the debt limit isn’t raised by then.

No. 1: Speaker Kevin McCarthy’s team believes they can avoid a disaster at the House Rules Committee at 3 p.m. today. Remember: Reps. Chip Roy (R-Texas), Ralph Norman (R-S.C.) and Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) — three conservatives who serve on the panel — are at risk to vote against the rule, which allows the legislation to come to the floor.

All three have expressed serious reservations about the bill, especially Roy. House Freedom Caucus Chair Scott Perry (R-Pa.) is holding a press conference today, too.

But there’s chatter that Massie may still back the rule, which makes him the key figure in today’s drama. Roy and Norman were part of the anti-McCarthy contingent during the speaker vote, while Massie backed McCarthy from start to finish.

Keep in mind this fascinating exchange Massie had with reporters four months ago. Our friend Erik Wasson of Bloomberg asked the Kentucky Republican if he would be “a firewall” on the Rules Committee to make sure a clean debt-limit increase never made it onto the floor. Here’s Massie:

There have been no conversations among Democrats about voting for the rule. Republicans, though, believe in this case, Democratic interests align with their own and that of President Joe Biden.

Biden is lobbying Democratic members to back the bill on the floor but aides won’t say who. Senior White House aides and Cabinet officials have also spoken with dozens of rank-and-file House Democrats. Similar calls are being made to Senate Democrats.

No. 2: House Republicans will hold a conference meeting this evening to discuss the Fiscal Responsibility Act. GOP leadership feels as if the preliminary CBO score — $2.1 trillion in savings over the proposed six-year life of the caps agreement — is something they can tout. Only the first two years of the caps can be enforced, while the remaining four can be waived. But it’s something for McCarthy to promote.

The Republican leadership’s game plan is to argue that no other bill can save the federal government as much money as this debt-limit package. Not to mention, Biden never wanted to negotiate and McCarthy forced him to do so.

No. 3: House Republican Conference Chair Elise Stefanik has a new memo laying out party strategy thus far on the debt-limit messaging war. GOP leaders say they had “early and consistent member education” given that most Republicans hadn’t voted for the debt limit before.

No. 4: Senate Democratic communications directors were briefed on messaging strategy by the White House Monday night, we’re told.

The briefing emphasized that “not everyone gets what they want,” according to one readout, a bid to counter progressive ire. A big focus was the White House’s view that Biden’s negotiators successfully blocked the most dangerous GOP provisions from getting into the legislation.

The Senate is in a holding pattern until the House sends the bill over following the Wednesday vote. In the meantime, it’s worth remembering that Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer might have to relent to demands to hold amendment votes in order to speed passage of the bill.

Case in point: Sen. Tim Kaine (D-Va.) is filing an amendment to strip the controversial Mountain Valley Pipeline approval from the legislation. A Kaine spokesperson said the provision, sought by Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) and Republicans, “is completely unrelated to the debt ceiling.”

No. 5: Rep. Raúl Grijalva of Arizona, the top Democrat on the House Natural Resources Committee, sent lawmakers a “fact sheet” sharply criticizing the permitting reform provisions in the debt-limit bill.

It’s unusual, to say the least, to have a senior member of the president’s own party criticize a package he crafted in such a public way. But as we noted, a lot of progressives don’t like this bill.

No. 6: The centrist New Democrat Coalition is supporting the bill. Here’s Chair Annie Kuster (D-N.H.) on why:

This is a key block of votes for Biden and House Democratic leaders to go after for the floor vote.

— Jake Sherman, Andrew Desiderio and Max Cohen

Next week: On June 8 at 9 a.m. ET, join us as Punchbowl News Founder and CEO Anna Palmer and Senior Congressional Reporter Andrew Desiderio interview Vice Chair of the Senate Appropriations Committee Susan Collins (R-Maine). They’ll focus on national security and foreign relations. RSVP here to join us in person or on the livestream.

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