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IN THIS EDITION

Welcome to Day 2 of MTG-Johnson drama

Senate FAA talks stalling out with Friday deadline looming

How AI is reshaping education and the workforce

Inside Dems’ Palm Springs weekend and a new K Street hire

THE TOP

Welcome to Day 2 of MTG-Johnson drama

Happy Tuesday morning.

Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene’s (R-Ga.) quixotic quest to boot Mike Johnson from the speakership will continue in all its glory today, 181 days ahead of the 2024 election.

Greene and Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) met with Johnson for two hours Monday afternoon. They emerged to find a waiting horde of reporters, but Greene would only say that she’ll meet with Johnson again today over whether to force a vote to oust the speaker.

Greene wouldn’t comment on her conversation with Johnson upon leaving the room. But we were able to get details about what she asked the speaker for:

→	That Johnson commit to no more U.S. aid for Ukraine.

→	That Johnson commit to defunding Special Counsel Jack Smith’s criminal investigation into former President Donald Trump.

→	That Johnson only advance legislative priorities that have the support of the majority of the majority — an adherence to the so-called Hastert Rule.

Let’s dissect these asks and then move into how we see the politics for all of the parties involved.

1) Under huge pressure, Johnson just helped push through a $61 billion aid package for the war in Ukraine, relying on a majority of Democratic votes to do so. The White House won’t be coming back to Congress anytime soon for more cash. The most important issue on Ukraine funding is who wins the contest for the White House in November. Johnson can feasibly say that he’s done sending money to Ukraine for the time being. ​​Although the downside is Johnson would be painting himself into a box, never a great look for a party leader.

2) Trump allies on Capitol Hill have long advocated cutting off funding for Smith’s investigation into Trump — both the classified document case and the Jan. 6 investigation. The FY2024 spending bills are already done, of course, so there’s no leverage there. But the FY2025 spending bills are early in the drafting process, meaning House Republicans could give it a run.

Of course, the Senate would never take this up, and President Joe Biden would never sign any such bill including this provision if it somehow landed on his desk. Senior House Republicans privately admit this.

Yet Greene doesn’t really see those political realities as hurdles — or care. She wants to cause legislative crises and get media coverage.

Also, keep in mind, the document case is unlikely to be finished before the election.

3) Passing bills with the majority of the majority is always a goal for any speaker. Lucky for Johnson, there’s not much big-ticket legislating left this year.

He has the FAA renewal coming up in the next few weeks. There are the 12 annual spending bills, plus the expected continuing resolution that will keep government agencies functioning beyond Sept. 30 while lawmakers seek reelection. Beyond that, however, there’s a dearth of must-pass bills that need to be done.

Republican leadership aides point out that they have gotten the majority of the majority on every bill they whipped except for the second spending package. Of course, Republicans didn’t whip everything either. So this should be an achievable ask from Greene.

The reality: All of this means Greene still may not get the answers she wants. She’s holding open the possibility of triggering the motion to vacate this week if Johnson doesn’t accede to these demands. Or Massie could do it.

Now let’s get into the politics of this situation for all the participants.

Johnson. The reality is that much of this is cosplay for all of the players involved. Johnson is going to survive a motion to vacate with Democrats voting to table, so the threat from Greene, Massie and Rep. Paul Gosar (R-Ariz.) is mostly theater. But Johnson would certainly like to be spared the indignity of having to rely on House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries to rescue his speakership.

It costs Johnson very little to hear Greene and Massie out and try to help them understand the situation he’s in. With little left to do this year, it’s clear Johnson would prefer to not have to deal with a motion to vacate — even if he can beat it.

“I’m optimistic as I am every day, Jake,” Johnson said to us Tuesday evening. “My job is to keep everybody working together and working towards our main objectives and I’m hopeful we can continue to do that.”

Greene. The “Will-she-or-won’t-she?” routine is appealing to a certain kind of lawmaker. Greene is getting the attention that comes along with vowing to oust the speaker. Although Greene says she wants every Republican on the record as to whether they’ll vote with Jeffries to save Johnson, the reality is she is going to lose on the floor and find herself out of favor with nearly all of her GOP colleagues. We don’t see the win if Greene or Massie keeps pushing this.

House Democrats. If Greene does pull the plug, she’ll be doing Democrats a huge favor. The decision to save Johnson isn’t playing very well in the House Democratic Caucus. Most Democrats aren’t psyched to keep a Republican speaker in place — especially because the GOP would never return the favor under any circumstance.

— Jake Sherman and John Bresnahan

THE SENATE

Senate FAA talks stalling out with Friday deadline looming

Senate leaders are getting increasingly pessimistic about the prospects of passing the five-year FAA reauthorization bill by the end of the week, with intra-party spats and ongoing demands for amendment votes standing in the way of a time agreement.

It could lead Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer to proceed with yet another extension of the FAA’s existing authority to prevent a lapse on Friday at midnight.

That extension, if needed, could last until the beginning of the next Congress, according to Senate aides. The concern within the Senate leadership is that the demand for amendments would only grow if the FAA deadline were punted by just a week or two. This would essentially mean throwing in the towel on a major bill that took several months of work and waiting for the lame-duck session instead.

As of this morning, the obstacles are twofold:

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Democrats are trying to alter a provision in the base bill that they believe undercuts the Biden administration’s newly announced policy on automatic refunds for delayed or canceled flights. The push has some GOP support, but Republican leaders aren’t quite on board. Democrats are angry that the provision landed in the bill in the first place.

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House Republican leadership is lobbying aggressively against the idea of attaching unrelated bills to the FAA measure. You’ll recall that senators from both parties are looking to use the FAA bill as a vehicle to pass long-stalled bipartisan legislation, from the Kids Online Safety Act to the Radiation Exposure Compensation Act.

On refunds: Sens. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) and Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) teamed up on an amendment that would essentially codify the Biden administration’s new rule requiring airlines to automatically refund passengers for canceled or significantly delayed flights.

As written, the FAA bill states that in order to receive those refunds, passengers must submit a written request. Senators believe this provision contradicts the new policy.

We’re told that Democrats were taking their ire out on Senate Commerce Committee Chair Maria Cantwell (D-Wash.) over this last week. Cantwell was the lead Democratic negotiator and has been trying to reassure her colleagues that she’s working to change the provision, according to two sources who have spoken with Cantwell.

Cantwell is also privately blaming Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas), her GOP counterpart on the Commerce Committee, for opposing a change in the underlying text. Cruz has publicly bashed the policy as well, including in an appearance on CNBC last week. Cruz specifically takes issue with the word “automatic,” claiming it would prevent passengers from being rebooked.

“It just so happens that Sen. Cruz is in cycle, so he’s a convenient boogeyman for the left and those who live on Twitter all day,” a Senate GOP aide lamented.

On unrelated amendments: Senators not only want to vote on amendments to the FAA bill itself, but several also want to use it as a way to pass unrelated legislation.

The online safety and radiation compensation bills are among those demands. Other senators have asked for votes on bipartisan measures including the Credit Card Competition Act and an extension of the Affordable Connectivity Program.

But House GOP leaders are actively trying to prevent non-germane bills from hitching a ride to the FAA reauthorization, according to multiple sources. They don’t want the must-pass FAA measure to become a “Christmas tree” for individual senators’ legislative priorities.

Of course, the Senate could still jam the House with a must-pass FAA bill that includes all sorts of unrelated legislation. But the chances of clinching an agreement that includes final passage by Friday are looking increasingly slim.

— Andrew Desiderio and Jake Sherman

THE AI IMPACT

How AI is reshaping education and the workforce

We just launched the fourth segment in our series, The AI Impact, this time focusing on education and the workforce and how policymakers are approaching the issue. The series is presented by Google.

For lots of people, the thought of AI triggers fears of the potential displacement of human employees by technology. However, educational institutions and nonprofit organizations view AI as a new tool to enhance learning and boost the skills of a new generation of workers.

While the technology advances fast, regulatory efforts in Washington are predictably slow. So far, the White House and Capitol Hill are signaling they want more information and data to predict how AI will affect the future of work.

Some lawmakers are also concerned about whether the U.S. government can compete against better-funded private companies to hire skilled AI experts as agencies increasingly adopt the technology.

In the meantime, nonprofits like Camden, N.J.-based Hopeworks would like policymakers to step up their efforts to provide regulatory clarity and support as organizations use AI to help prepare underprivileged young adults to enter the workforce.

This segment on how AI is changing education and the workforce wraps up our two-month-long series, The AI Impact.

Since March, we’ve explored how artificial intelligence is reshaping the way the government, industry, the scientific world and nonprofits conduct their most important tasks. We’ve previously reported on AI’s impact on cybersecurity and how the technology is transforming health care and scientific discovery. We’ve also written about its impact on small businesses.

Read the full project here.

— Elvina Nawaguna

HAPPY TRAILS

Cuellar loses top aide, more may follow

The chief of staff to Rep. Henry Cuellar has left the Texas Democrat’s office after the veteran lawmaker and his wife were hit with bribery, money laundering and wire fraud charges last week.

Jake Hochberg, Cuellar’s chief of staff since 2021, left the Texas Democrat’s office Monday, according to multiple sources familiar with the situation.

Cuellar sources say that several other aides are considering leaving the office in the coming days.

Cuellar was indicted Friday on charges that he and his wife Imelda allegedly used a series of shell companies, sham contracts and fake invoices to conceal nearly $600,000 in bribes from an Azerbaijani oil company and a Mexican bank over a years-long period. In turn, Cuellar reportedly used his office to help advance their policy agenda.

The couple has pleaded not guilty and were released on $100,000 bail each. Their trial is supposed to begin this summer, but the likelihood is that pre-trial legal disputes over the case will take months to settle.

Cuellar has stepped down from his committee assignments while the criminal case proceeds. Cuellar serves on the House Appropriations Committee.

The Texas Democrat didn’t vote Monday, his first chance to do so since the indictment.

— Jake Sherman, Mica Soellner and John Bresnahan

… AND THERE’S MORE

Inside Dems’ Palm Springs weekend and a new K Street hire

News: Top House Democrats gathered in southern California this weekend for major donor events.

The Equality PAC — the pro-LGBTQ campaign group — held a weekend gathering of top donors in Palm Springs, Calif., for its annual summit. The event raised more than $275,000 from local supporters. They were joined by 200-plus guests who had already maxed out their donations to the PAC.

Over 35 members of Congress and Equality PAC-endorsed candidates were in attendance.

House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries made an appearance at the opening dinner. DCCC Chair Suzan DelBene, Caucus Vice Chair Ted Lieu, and Democratic Reps. Rick Larsen (Wash.), Bobby Scott (Va.), Ritchie Torres (N.Y.) and Mark Takano (Calif.) were also present at the PAC summit.

Downtown Download: Another hire at Porterfield, Fettig & Sears: Abby Truhart will join the firm as a vice president. Truhart previously did congressional relations for the American Bankers Association focused on Democrats in the House and Senate. Prior to that, Truhart worked for the Credit Union National Association, which has since become part of America’s Credit Unions.

— Max Cohen and Brendan Pedersen

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