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Happy Thursday morning.

For the last week, Washington has been frantically trying to discern the political impact of the Supreme Court’s decision to strike down Roe v. Wade. Democrats say their base will be energized – and there’s some evidence to back that up. A new Marist poll had 78% of Democrats saying they’re more likely to vote in November given the decision, which is far higher than Republicans. GOP leaders counter that independent voters, who can swing the election, care more about inflation, gas prices and the economy.

This is a vast oversimplification of a complex political issue. So we decided to talk to some of the most high-profile players during this election cycle to gauge how they believe this issue will play out politically.

First of all, we should note that neither Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.), the chair of the NRSC, nor Rep. Tom Emmer (R-Minn.), the chair of the NRCC, would agree to an interview on the topic. Emmer sent over this statement:

We should also note that the GOP has significant momentum going into November. Historical trends are on their side, and sky high gas prices and crippling inflation should help them capture seats. Republicans have a large minority in the House and only need to pick up a handful of seats to grab the majority in that chamber. And gaining a single Senate seat would give them control of that chamber as well. President Joe Biden would then face the same fate as his Democratic predecessors Barack Obama and Bill Clinton – running for reelection with a hostile Republican-controlled Congress dogging his every move.

Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney of New York, the DCCC chair, insisted it wasn’t only abortion that would energize his party this fall.

House Democratic Caucus Chair Hakeem Jeffries, who travels to support other House Democratic candidates, said he has seen voters electrified since last week’s ruling.

Sen. Gary Peters (D-Mich.), the chair of the DSCC, told us that in states such as New Hampshire, Arizona and Nevada – three pro-choice states – Democratic voters would turn out to usher in incumbents who are otherwise in political peril.

The question we had for these top Democrats was how they plan to keep voters engaged on this issue – and motivated enough to show up at the polls – four months from now, especially when Congress is limited in what it can do because of the filibuster.

Maloney said vote anger over Republicans mulling an abortion ban nationwide is just seeping into the public consciousness. Abortion rights advocates have filed lawsuits across the country to halt or delay state bans or challenge whether the bans violate rights guaranteed in state constitutions.

Something interesting we’ve noticed here: In the past, mainstream Democrats often shied away from running campaigns centered around cultural issues. This election seems to be different.

Two of the Senate’s most vulnerable members — Democratic Sens. Maggie Hassan (N.H.) and Catherine Cortez Masto (Nev.) — have heavily leaned into abortion rights messaging following the Dobbs decision. Hassan and Cortez Masto are cautious pols not known for their flame-throwing tendencies.

Cortez Masto is labeling her GOP opponent Adam Laxalt “an automatic vote for Mitch McConnell’s federal abortion ban.” Hassan has been going on a media push slamming her potential general election opponents as anti-abortion rights and warning of the dangers of a Republican-controlled Senate.

Here’s a new ad from Hassan, released this morning, where she vows to “fight and never back down” against efforts to ban abortion nationwide.

In 2018, Democrats avoided engaging former President Donald Trump on his claims that “migrant caravans” were “invading” the United States. Instead, Democrats had an almost tunnel-vision focus on the economy, ethics and health care that helped them win back the House.

But in 2020, Democrats – particularly those members in swing districts – were hammered by GOP attacks that the party was soft on crime and wanted to “defund the police.” Democrats didn’t have a good response to those attacks and it cost them. The party lost a dozen seats in the House and now operates with a razor-thin majority that looks likely to disappear in the fall.

Meanwhile, Republicans have long capitalized on social and cultural “wedge” issues to motivate their base and get them to the vote.

Top Democrats tell us they’re not shying away from discussing inflation, record gas and food prices and the supply chain crisis. But they’ve also learned from 2020. Democrats say they’re ready to put Republicans on the defensive on topics for which the GOP has long had the upper hand.

Here’s Jeffries again:

The Senate Republican Conference is releasing this new short video mocking Biden over the cost of a July 4th meal this year versus last year. This shows you once again how GOP leaders see the political landscape currently.

Here’s Sen. John Barrasso (R-Wyo.), conference chair:

— Jake Sherman, John Bresnahan, Heather Caygle and Max Cohen

Event reminder: Join us for a virtual Pop-Up Conversation with Rep. Brad Sherman (D-Calif.) on Tuesday, July 12 at 9 a.m. ET. We’ll be talking to him about how Washington is looking to regulate financial markets. With inflation and rising interest rates, this is sure to be a timely and impactful conversation. RSVP here!

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