Fairfax County Supervisor James Walkinshaw, a Democrat, is expected to sail through Tuesday’s special election to fill the late Rep. Gerry Connolly’s (D-Va.) seat, complicating Speaker Mike Johnson’s majority math.
Normally, special elections in safe seats aren’t super interesting. But in such a narrowly divided House, every vacancy can have a huge impact.
Right now, that House has 431 members. With 219 House Republicans to 212 Democrats, Johnson can only lose three members of his conference on any given vote — or win over moderate Democrats (Remember: a tie means the vote fails).
If Walkinshaw wins and is sworn in, Johnson’s margin gets even tighter. There will be 219 Republicans to 213 Democrats. That means Johnson could then only lose two members on any vote.
And it could get worse from there for Johnson, at least for a little while.
There are currently four vacancies in the House due to the deaths of Connolly and Democratic Reps. Raúl Grijalva (Ariz.) and Sylvester Turner (Texas), plus the resignation of GOP Rep. Mark Green (Tenn.).
The special election for Grijalva’s seat is set for Sept. 23, but that won’t change the majority math if a Democrat holds on to the district as expected.
But Turner’s special, set for Nov. 4 in Houston, will drop Johnson to a mere one-vote margin, assuming a Democrat wins. This is a D+21 district. Turner won the Houston-based district by nearly 40 points in November. So it’s all but certain to remain in Democratic hands. There will be a runoff if no one clears 50%, which would buy Johnson a little more time.
Short-lived squeeze: The special election to fill Green’s seat will be held on Dec. 2. This is a district President Donald Trump won by 22 points in 2024, so Republicans are heavily favored. But Democrats are contesting the seat, hoping for an upset.
A Republican victory here brings the number of GOP votes Johnson can lose back up to two. Better than one, but it’s still less than he has now.
