Senate readies daytime votes on Trump's agenda

IN THIS EDITION

Up next for the Senate: A daytime vote-a-rama

Johnson’s tough task with little time

The race to succeed Tillis is on

Collins inches toward Georgia Senate bid

THE TOP

Up next for the Senate: A daytime vote-a-rama

Happy Monday morning.

Senate Democrats and a handful of Republicans wrapped up a marathon of speeches on the Senate floor just after 1 a.m. Sunday night, mostly railing against the One Big Beautiful Bill Act.

But the real fight is set to begin soon.

Senate GOP leaders made the unusual — and unpopular among the rank-and-file — decision Sunday night to take a break before starting the high-stakes vote-a-rama that comes at the end of every budget reconciliation push in the Senate.

Senate Majority Leader John Thune’s move to bring senators back in at 9 a.m. for the amendment marathon is a departure from the norm. The process, during which senators can offer an unlimited number of amendments, usually occurs in the overnight hours with the goal of exacting as much pain as possible and wearing senators down.

A daytime vote-a-rama likely means the process could drag out much longer — possibly until early Tuesday morning, some GOP senators predict.

Yet the reality is that Senate Republicans are on a glide path to passing President Donald Trump’s legislative priorities, a huge win for them and the White House. Thune can’t breathe a sigh of relief yet, however.

Unlimited floor votes. The first vote the Senate takes before starting the vote-a-rama is on the current policy baseline, the accounting tactic Republicans are using to make the 2017 tax cuts permanent.

Senate Democrats have condemned the use of the baseline and planned to force a parliamentarian ruling on the floor. Instead, Thune set up a party-line vote to settle the scorekeeping question and avoid any need to overrule the parliamentarian, which he’s pledged not to do.

But this vote ushers in a new norm in the Senate, putting a current policy baseline in play for either party to extend tax cuts permanently in reconciliation without paying for them.

During the vote-a-rama itself, the Senate will vote on Sen. Rick Scott’s (R-Fla.) amendment to lower the federal match rate for states that expanded Medicaid under Obamacare.

Scott and other conservatives secured GOP leaders’ support for the amendment in exchange for their votes for the motion to proceed to the reconciliation package.

The amendment is unlikely to pass, though, as a handful of Republican senators have already expressed opposition.

Dems’ playbook. Most of the vote-a-rama will be the Democrats’ show. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer will kick things off.

Schumer’s first amendment will underscore a theme of the day for Democrats, forcing Republicans to vote on a measure focused on not increasing “costs for working families and small businesses to pay for tax cuts for billionaires.”

Here are other key topics for Democrats.

— Medicaid: Republicans’ plans to slash around $1 trillion in spending from health care programs — mainly Medicaid — will be a huge focus for Democrats.

Senate Democrats are also expected to focus on rural hospitals, a sensitive issue for GOP moderates who fought to add a $25 billion relief fund to the package.

— Clean energy: Senate Democrats are planning amendments targeted at Republicans’ net $517 billion in cuts to clean energy tax credits from the Inflation Reduction Act. Democrats see an opportunity to put GOP senators who didn’t want these aggressive repeals in a tough spot.

— SNAP: Democrats are also planning to highlight Republicans’ cuts to federal food assistance programs, which have caused heartburn for the GOP.

AI deal. Here’s one floor problem that Republicans might have solved. GOP Sens. Ted Cruz (Texas) and Marsha Blackburn (Tenn.) struck a compromise Sunday night on a reworked proposal to push states not to regulate artificial intelligence.

Under the new language, states can only access $500 million in new funds for AI infrastructure if they don’t regulate AI for five years. Cruz’s original proposal spanned a decade.

However, the agreement contains several carveouts, allowing states to continue to “protect kids, creators, and other vulnerable individuals from the unintended consequences of AI,” Blackburn said in a statement.

Blackburn was leading the resistance to Cruz’s original AI provision alongside several other Republicans, including Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.). It’s unclear where other opponents will land on the new deal. Democrats are still expected to force a vote to scrap the provision.

Tillis on a warpath. Newly liberated Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) isn’t holding back after his shocking retirement announcement Sunday.

Tillis gave two floor speeches Sunday night slamming the GOP reconciliation bill’s Medicaid cuts and phase-outs of clean energy tax credits. Tillis also spoke with reporters about his decision not to seek reelection. (More below on the succession race.)

On the floor, Tillis said Republicans were “betraying” Trump’s promise, adding that he told the president the bill “will hurt people who are eligible and qualified for Medicaid.” Tillis told Republicans that, “It’s going to be a massive mistake” if Republicans move forward with it.

Tillis insisted, however, that he’s not trying to undermine Senate GOP leaders.

“I’m not that kind of guy,” Tillis said. “I mean, if you’ve got to surprise or jam your conference to get something done, you’re a pretty shitty legislator.”

— Andrew Desiderio, Laura Weiss, Diego Areas Munhoz and Ben Brody

NEW: The Future of Energy is here. Check out the first feature of our editorial project, in partnership with Duke Energy, that explores the state of play for global energy production and how policymakers are meeting tensions between the growing appetite for energy and efforts to reduce environmental impact.

THE SPEAKER

Johnson’s tough task with little time

Speaker Mike Johnson has an incredibly difficult week ahead.

The speaker has spent months urging Republican lawmakers to set aside their misgivings with the reconciliation bill so they could take one more step in pushing the package toward law.

But that option has run out.

Johnson now needs to convince a House Republican Conference that feels like it has been strung along for months to deliver a signature legislative victory for President Donald Trump on a package that many of them think is subpar.

Here’s the box that Johnson finds himself in.

House conservatives were promised $2 trillion in spending cuts if Republicans were to cut taxes by $4.5 trillion. The Senate fell short of the spending cut goal.

And moderates are freaked about the cuts to Medicaid, which have gotten harsher in the Senate bill. The Senate’s Medicaid cuts total close to $1 trillion – far more than what the middle of the House GOP was comfortable with.

The White House believes it can assuage these concerns and get the bill passed by Friday. Trump himself is going to have to play a very big role here.

HFC’s response: The House Freedom Caucus previewed on Sunday what we believe will be their chief argument against the measure, saying that the Senate bill “adds $1.3 trillion to the deficit,” which is 1,705% more than the House bill.

The simple fact here is that the HFC is almost certain to demand a bunch of changes to the Senate’s reconciliation package – changes that Johnson will desperately want to avoid.

Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas), one of the most vocal members of the HFC, is already railing against the bill’s treatment of clean-energy tax credits from the Inflation Reduction Act. Roy has been urging House and Senate Republican leadership to end all tax credits and said Sunday that the Senate’s bill leaves “in place about half of the subsidies.”

The HFC has every incentive to hold out here. Many of them reluctantly voted to advance the reconciliation bill from the House last month with the misplaced hope that the Senate would accede to the hard right’s demands.

Johnson has told his leadership team that he intends to work on another reconciliation bill in the fall — something he’s sure to tell conservatives also. But as the 2026 midterm elections draw closer, it will become even more difficult to pass legislation cutting federal spending.

The no’s: So far, the GOP has a slew of declared no votes. We are keeping track of all the movements in our Big Mad Index.

It seems all-but-guaranteed that Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) will vote against the bill.

Reps. David Valadao (R-Calif.) and Jeff Van Drew (R-N.J.) have said they’ll vote no as well. Both could have tricky reelections next year and both don’t like the Senate’s Medicaid changes.

Rep. Nick LaLota (R-N.Y.) said he will vote no because he doesn’t like the SALT deal that his fellow New York Republicans cut with the Trump administration. Few believe LaLota will vote no at the end of the day, but he’s someone to keep a close eye on.

Conservative Reps. Eric Burlison (R-Mo.) and Andy Harris (R-Md.) have indicated they aren’t happy with the package. Harris — the HFC chair — caught a lot of flak when he voted present on the bill in the House. So Harris may be incentivized to vote no on final passage.

Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) has also indicated her displeasure. But we assume Trump can and will flip her.

The House Rules Committee will meet on Tuesday, and the chamber will hold its first floor vote Wednesday. This gives Johnson and his team two full days to try to get the reconciliation plan through.

– Jake Sherman

THE MIDTERMS

The race to succeed Tillis is on

A MAGA mutiny forced Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) into retirement. A boatload of Trump-aligned Republicans are getting ready to take his place.

The field is fluid, but Lara Trump, RNC Chair Michael Whatley, NRCC Chair Richard Hudson and Rep. Pat Harrigan (R-N.C.) are in the upper echelon of contenders, according to several Republican sources. The final decision will be heavily determined by who President Donald Trump decides to endorse.

The stakes are high because Democrats will heavily target this seat. But Republicans hope that a coveted Trump endorsement will thin out what would otherwise be a bruising GOP primary.

The top tier. Harrigan, a former Green Beret, is well-liked by some in Trump World and was viewed as a contender even before Tillis’ exit. But Harrigan is a freshman lawmaker and relatively unknown statewide.

Whatley is a key Trump ally who led the North Carolina GOP for several years before Trump installed him at the Republican National Committee. Trump clearly trusts Whatley, as he turned to the experienced political operative after Ronna McDaniel’s departure from the RNC.

Lara Trump, the president’s daughter-in-law, would be a compelling choice. She’s a North Carolina native and a Fox News host. It’s unclear if Lara Trump wants to be in the Senate, though. She took herself out of contention to fill former Sen. Marco Rubio’s (R-Fla.) seat.

Also, keep an eye on Hudson, the chair of the NRCC. Trump likes Hudson, and the NRCC chair is more seasoned than Harrigan. But the president would have to decide if it’s worth it to lose Hudson at the House GOP campaign arm in a cycle where Trump is desperate for Republicans to keep their majority.

There are a slew of other names floating around. Rep. Tim Moore (R-N.C.), who has a statewide profile from his time serving as speaker in the North Carolina House, is taking a look at the race. Also in the mix: former Rep. George Holding (R-N.C.), who serves on the board of the Trump Media & Technology Group Corp., and Rep. Addison McDowell (R-N.C.), another freshman.

Some of these names are more serious than others. But Tillis’ retirement proves that the single most important thing to have is Trump’s blessing. Anyone can throw their name into contention in the hopes of getting lucky should the president decide to go with a dark horse pick.

Tillis’ take: Tillis wouldn’t say on Sunday whether he plans to endorse a candidate to succeed him, saying it depends on who runs. Tillis said he suspects Trump will endorse a candidate and that the party will get behind that person.

But Tillis warned Trump not to make the same mistake he did with Mark Robinson, the scandal-plagued GOP nominee for governor in 2024.

“I just really hope [Trump] has some discernment because obviously Mark Robinson was a bad pick,” Tillis told reporters. “It’s a statewide race. You’ve got to have a good, solid candidate who runs on the basis of their body of work.”

Democratic perspective. Democrats are salivating at the prospect of running a top recruit against an untested GOP candidate.

Former Gov. Roy Cooper remains the party’s biggest hope, but Cooper isn’t in the race yet.

For now, Democrats are happy to take a victory lap over Tillis’ exit.

“It just shows you that the Republicans’ majority is at risk because of their Big, Ugly Bill is so unpopular, not just in North Carolina but throughout the country,” Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer said in a statement.

– Ally Mutnick, Andrew Desiderio and Max Cohen

PEACH STATE POLITICS

Collins inches toward Georgia Senate bid

Rep. Mike Collins (R-Ga.) is inching closer to launching a Senate campaign as Republicans scramble to find a consensus candidate who can defeat Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-Ga.).

Last week, Collins met with James Blair, the White House deputy chief of staff for legislative, political and public affairs. Collins said that while he made the trip to the White House to discuss a variety of legislative topics, the Georgia Senate race did come up.

We’re told Collins is waiting until the end of the second quarter — which closes today — to officially jump into the race. An announcement could happen in the coming weeks.

When asked about his White House meeting, Collins jokingly told us, “You can’t keep a secret in this town.”

But the Georgia Republican followed up by saying he’s “still taking a serious look at [running for Senate].”

Currently, the only two major contenders in the race are Rep. Buddy Carter (R-Ga.) and state insurance commissioner John King. But neither of them is gaining much traction or building support, as we previously reported.

President Donald Trump hasn’t directly weighed in on the race yet. And several members of the delegation said they’ll end up backing whoever Trump and Georgia GOP Gov. Brian Kemp support.

For what it’s worth, Collins has sought to build a strong relationship with Trump and spearheaded the Laken Riley Act – the first piece of legislation the president signed into law since he assumed office for his second term.

Carter has also been circulating internal polling showing he has an edge in the race and that an endorsement from Trump would give him an “insurmountable lead.”

After years of recruitment failures in the Peach State, the GOP is laser-focused on getting this cycle right. Trump discouraged Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) from running. Ossoff is by far the most vulnerable Senate Democrat up for reelection.

Democrats are already going after Collins for his support of the GOP reconciliation package. The Georgia Democratic Party called out Collins’ recent comments encouraging kicking people off Social Security and Medicaid.

– Mica Soellner and Max Cohen

THE CAMPAIGN

MAGA KY, the Trump-blessed political vehicle going after Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.), has a new ad up in Cincinnati and Lexington, Ky. Here’s the transcript:

Watch the ad here.

– Jake Sherman

MOMENTS

CLIPS