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Congress wades into Trump shooting as Biden urges calm

Milwaukee Mayor Johnson sticks by Biden

Does McConnell think Congress can pass more Ukraine aid?

Thune-linked super PAC doled out more than $3 million

THE TOP

Congress wades into Trump shooting as Biden urges calm

Happy Monday morning.

With the criminal probe into the shooting of former President Donald Trump just starting, Congress has already begun its own investigations into the deadly incident. Expect these investigations to include private briefings and lots of public grillings.

The Secret Service has come under intense scrutiny for its handling of security at Trump’s Saturday rally, including how the shooter got within 150 yards of the former president. One person was killed in the failed assassination attempt and several more injured. The shooter was also killed.

The House Homeland Security Committee is expected to receive a virtual briefing today from the Secret Service. The panel’s chair, Rep. Mark Green (R-Tenn.), spoke with USSS Director Kimberly Cheatle on Sunday. Green has requested documents outlining the Secret Service’s security plan for the rally and is planning to hold a hearing as soon as next week.

The House Oversight Committee also expects to have a private briefing soon. Oversight Chair James Comer (R-Ky.) has been in touch with the agency and asked Cheatle to testify on July 22.

Rep. Jeff Duncan (R-S.C.) is calling for an independent commission to look into the shooting. Duncan spoke with Speaker Mike Johnson and Green via text on Sunday, and there “is an agreement” on this proposal, according to a person familiar with the situation.

“We cannot rely just on Congressional Oversight hearings or even Agency Inspector Generals to get the answers that Congress and the American people deserve about the failures to protect President Trump adequately,” Duncan said in a statement.

Calls for calm. Leaders on both sides urged restraint even as wild conspiracy claims were being made by figures in both parties. The Biden and Trump presidential campaigns, as well as the national party committees, have hit the pause button temporarily, although that’s not expected to last long with the election just 113 days away.

During a Sunday Oval Office address, President Joe Biden declared it was “time to cool it down.”

“Disagreement is inevitable in American democracy,” Biden said during his brief remarks. “But politics must never be a literal battlefield and, God forbid, a killing field.”

This was the third time Biden had spoken publicly about the Trump shooting. Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris will get an update this morning from Homeland Security and law enforcement officials on the investigation into the incident. Biden — who’s gotten a momentary reprieve from his Democratic critics — will do an interview with NBC News’ Lester Holt today and then head to Las Vegas for appearances before the NAACP and UnidosUS later this week.

For his part, Trump told the Washington Examiner’s Salena Zito that he’d changed his convention speech in order to help “bring the country together.”

“This is a chance to bring the whole country, even the whole world, together. The speech will be a lot different, a lot different than it would’ve been two days ago,” Trump said.

The main event. The Republican National Convention kicks off today in Milwaukee. By the end of the week, Trump will formally be the GOP nominee. And for Congress watchers, Mike Johnson will have been speaker for as long as Kevin McCarthy.

During a call on Sunday with the House Sergeant at Arms, GOP members were told to expect a stepped-up security presence at the convention and airports. Lawmakers may also request additional security for their districts or any events they’re attending.

The House and Senate leadership are big-time VIPs at the convention. They’re sought after for fundraisers, state delegation events and briefings. Here’s where the leaders will be in Milwaukee this week:

– Johnson will host a Louisiana GOP event, meet with state groups including the Pennsylvania and North Carolina delegations, speak at an NRCC welcome brunch, meet with the Republican Jewish Coalition and participate in a Congressional Leadership Fund briefing with the rest of the House GOP leadership.

– Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell has remained mum about what exactly he’ll be up to this week, but the Kentucky Republican will have official duties at the convention given his role as chair of the state’s delegation. McConnell spoke Sunday night at the Kentucky kickoff event.

– Senate Minority Whip John Thune is scheduled to hold meetings with candidates, donors, delegates and others throughout the week. Thune is running to succeed McConnell as Senate GOP leader, so these one-on-one meetings are important as he looks to build support for his bid. He’s also speaking at a public event focused on agriculture policy. More on Thune below.

– Senate GOP Conference Chair John Barrasso is co-hosting the “Brewing a Majority” event with House Majority Leader Steve Scalise on Wednesday night at the Pabst Blue Ribbon brewery. Barrasso also has private meetings lined up with Trump and his son Don Jr.

– Scalise is headlining a warehouse party Monday night to celebrate the House Republican Conference. The event will benefit the Party of Hope Charity, which will be making a donation to the U.S. Capitol Police Foundation. The Louisiana Republican will give a speech at the convention.

– House Majority Whip Tom Emmer, Minnesota state chair of Trump’s 2024 campaign, will participate in a delegation luncheon, as well as the “United to Win” reception being hosted by the party committees. Emmer will attend a number of NRCC and CLF events throughout the week and is also giving a convention speech.

– House GOP Conference Chair Elise Stefanik, who will chair New York’s delegation during the convention, will welcome the delegation Monday and host a brunch Tuesday honoring female lawmakers. Johnson will be a special guest. On Thursday, the Trump Women’s Leadership Coalition is holding a luncheon featuring Stefanik, Arkansas Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders and Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R-Tenn.). Stefanik has a speaking slot at the convention.

– Melanie Zanona, John Bresnahan, Jake Sherman and Andrew Desiderio

The Canvass at the conventions: We’re taking our popular survey, The Canvass, to the RNC in Milwaukee this week. While there, we’ll poll the most influential power players from Capitol Hill and K Street, getting their thoughts on key moments from the convention in real-time. Look out for the polling results in our newsletters this week.

The Canvass provides important insider insight into the thinking of key decision-makers and policy influencers from people closest to them.

RNC WATCH

Milwaukee Mayor Johnson sticks by Biden

Milwaukee Mayor Cavalier Johnson is sticking by President Joe Biden even as more rank-and-file Democrats call for the president to withdraw from the 2024 race. We caught up with Johnson as his city prepared to host the Republican National Convention.

Here’s what we learned:

Johnson believes Biden can win Wisconsin. Johnson, who’s served as mayor since late 2021, was reassured by what he heard from Biden during a recent call with mayors from across the nation. “The Joe Biden that we engaged with on that call was Joe Biden that everybody wanted to show up to the debate,” Johnson said.

Speaking of a “binary choice” between Biden and former President Donald Trump, Johnson said Biden was the clear winner. Johnson hailed Biden’s legislative record passing the Inflation Reduction Act, bipartisan infrastructure law and the American Rescue Plan.

Johnson isn’t buying Trump’s claims that he’s gaining among Black voters. Johnson, the second Black mayor of Milwaukee, said that his conversations with constituents show Biden is in a strong position with Black voters.

Here’s Johnson recounting his experience at Milwaukee’s Juneteenth festival:

Johnson isn’t concerned about recent polling. Hill Democrats have been spooked by an AARP poll that found Biden trailing Trump in the Badger State. Johnson dismissed the findings as “just a snapshot in a moment in time, not necessarily a predictor of what’s going to happen in an election.”

“Obviously, polling has not hit the mark in these past couple elections, including back in 2022 when there was suspected that there was going to be some red wave in Congress, and it was a trickle,” Johnson said.

We also asked Johnson what visitors to the city should check out during convention week. Johnson singled out Lake Michigan as a must-see. “I would encourage folks to go to Lake Michigan, go down to the beach, or go down to Lakeshore State Park and then turn around and see the vistas of this city,” Johnson said.

Johnson couldn’t resist a dig at Trump’s critical Milwaukee comments, which we broke the news on last month.

“Regardless of what the former occupant of the White House might say, you’ll have these experiences here in the city and you’ll understand this isn’t a horrible city. This is a remarkable city,” Johnson said.

— Max Cohen

WASHINGTON X THE WORLD

Does McConnell think Congress can pass more Ukraine aid?

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and his allies across the West were relieved when Congress approved more than $60 billion in badly needed aid for Kyiv in April after months of costly delays.

But Capitol Hill’s staunchest Ukraine supporters are already looking ahead to the next legislative showdown. That could come at the outset of the next Congress and is certain to heighten tensions not only in Washington but across Europe.

The outcome will depend on several factors. The most important is whether former President Donald Trump returns to the White House or President Joe Biden wins reelection. It also depends on which party is in charge of the House and Senate. In the meantime, Ukraine’s military needs to continue showing progress in taking back its territory from Russia, according to Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell.

“The conflict over the summer and how it is perceived to turn out is extremely important in answering the question inevitably coming up in democracies — can they win?” McConnell told us in a recent interview. “Zelensky made it clear he’s not interested in giving up any territory, and they’ve certainly demonstrated their courage.”

McConnell has been Ukraine’s most important ally on the Hill, seemingly in constant battle with other Republicans over the need to continue U.S. support for Kyiv. McConnell met with Zelensky multiple times last week in Washington during the NATO summit, including some one-on-one time.

But McConnell will no longer be the Senate GOP leader come January. The number of Republicans willing to vote for Ukraine aid has dwindled. It took more than six months for Congress to pass the last aid package amid deep GOP strife.

However, McConnell insists he’ll remain deeply involved in ensuring that the Western coalition doesn’t fray heading into 2025.

Defining victory: At the same time, Trump’s allies in Congress have been arguing that the United States should facilitate negotiations between Ukraine and Russia to end the war. This, of course, would almost certainly involve Ukraine giving up territory to Russia.

Zelensky says he won’t let that happen — and Republicans in McConnell’s camp don’t believe he should, as it would essentially reward Russia’s war crimes. Sen. Roger Wicker (R-Miss.) recently slammed those calling for a negotiated end to the war in light of Russia’s bombing of a children’s hospital in Kyiv.

McConnell acknowledged that no one quite knows yet what a Ukrainian “win” looks like, which is part of the challenge for pro-Ukraine Republicans.

“[The Ukrainians] know they need to have some signs of success here, which will reassure the democratic countries that they can win,” McConnell added.

Despite the headwinds, McConnell is optimistic. He sees an “improved” political situation for Republicans when it comes to the Ukraine issue, noting that no GOP incumbent who backed Ukraine aid lost a primary this cycle. And McConnell sees rooting out the GOP’s “isolationist” streak in the Trump era as the “top priority” for his final two years in the Senate.

Another reason for optimism is that two of McConnell’s potential successors as Senate GOP leader — Minority Whip John Thune and Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) — have remained supportive of helping Ukraine. Dealing with the right flank will be a challenge, as it was for McConnell.

“Reagan would turn over in his grave if he thought we were not willing to stand up for people fighting for their independence — particularly against the Russians,” McConnell told us.

— Andrew Desiderio

THE MONEY GAME

Thune-linked super PAC doled out more than $3 million

News: New Heights Action, a super PAC associated with Senate Minority Whip John Thune, raised and doled out $3 million to fellow super PACs aimed at boosting Senate Republicans.

New Heights for America, a related non-profit group that doesn’t have to disclose donors, raised $8 million, bringing the total raised by the pair of Thune-related groups to more than $9 million. The non-profit has made grants focused on issue advocacy in swing states and non-profits such as RightVote, which is working to educate early and absentee voters in key Senate states. This effort is being championed by Sen. Bill Hagerty (R-Tenn.).

NHA Action raised $3.15 million last quarter. Stephen Schwarzman, the CEO of private equity giant Blackstone, donated $1 million. New Heights for America gave $2 million. And Golub Capital, a New York-based asset manager, gave $100,000.

NHA Action donated $500,000 to Buckeye Values, which supports Bernie Moreno in Ohio; Keystone Renewal, which supports Dave McCormick in Pennsylvania; Republican Leadership Fund, which supports Sam Brown in Nevada; and More Jobs Less Government, which supports Tim Sheehy in Montana.

The PAC gave $250,000 to GLCF, which supports former Rep. Mike Rogers’ (R-Mich.) bid for Senate in Michigan; Maryland’s Future, which supports former Gov. Larry Hogan’s attempt to win a Senate seat in Maryland; and Truth and Courage PAC, which is aimed at boosting Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas).

Conservative Values for Utah, which is designed to help Rep. John Curtis’ (R-Utah) Senate bid, and American Leadership PAC, which is boosting Rep. Jim Banks’ (R-Ind.) Senate bid, both got $150,000.

Thune, of course, is running to succeed Mitch McConnell as Senate GOP leader, a role that requires a strong outside political operation to boost incumbents and candidates across the country.

The organizations are run by Johnny DeStefano, a longtime GOP insider who worked in the Trump White House, and Paula Dukes, who has worked in fundraising for Thune for more than a decade.

Sources involved in the fundraising say that the contributions are above and beyond what the donors have committed to give to other Senate GOP political groups like the Senate Leadership Fund.

More Thune fundraising news: The South Dakota Republican has raised more than $19 million so far this cycle, as of the close of the second quarter, according to a source familiar with Thune’s political operation.

This cycle, Thune has headlined or is scheduled to headline around 170 events. These are either directly for candidates or through the NRSC.

Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas), another candidate to succeed McConnell, hit $20 million raised this cycle as of a month ago. Cornyn and Thune are both pitching themselves as strong fundraisers who have what it takes to build and maintain a robust political operation.

— Jake Sherman and Andrew Desiderio

THE CAMPAIGN

Fundraising news: Former Rep. Yvette Herrell (R-N.M.) raised $802,000 in the second quarter of 2024. Herrell is running in a rematch of her 2022 contest against Rep. Gabe Vasquez (D-N.M.) in New Mexico’s 2nd District.

House Administration Committee Chair Bryan Steil (R-Wis.) raised $822,000 for his reelection campaign in Q2. Steil also raised over $72,000 for his Steil Victory Fund and over $88,000 for his leadership fund. Steil represents Wisconsin’s 1st District.

— Max Cohen

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