The Archive

IN THIS EDITION

Republican campaign chiefs dream of a Red Washington

How the Senate GOP leadership race is playing in Milwaukee

After contentious calls, Biden reengages with the Hill

Real-time Canvass polling from RNC

CHC BOLD PAC condemns crypto spending in Arizona race

THE TOP

Republican campaign chiefs dream of a Red Washington

Happy Wednesday morning.

MILWAUKEE — The tumult in the Democratic Party has Republican campaign chiefs dreaming big.

NRCC Chair Richard Hudson told us in an interview here that the GOP is starting to focus its attention, polling and potentially its cash on House seats that President Joe Biden won handily in 2020, even by double digits.

“If it’s a D+3, we already got you,” Hudson said, referring to seats that Biden won by three points when he took the White House. “We’re looking at D+11 and plus. … We’ve seen numbers all cycle that show we can win [in] a number of places like that.”

And NRSC Chair Steve Daines told us that having Donald Trump and JD Vance at the top of the GOP ticket “helps Republicans in our Senate battlegrounds,” while Democrats’ “worst nightmare” is Biden holding a rally in their state.

Let’s be clear — proclamations in July don’t necessarily dictate spending decisions in September, October or November. That’s true for both House and Senate races.

Plus, remember 2022’s ”red wave” and the 60 seats House Republicans were going to flip? They were dead wrong. And the last few cycles, Republicans lost winnable Senate races in part because of lackluster candidates.

But it’s not hard to see why Hudson and Daines are optimistic right now. The Democratic Party is warring over Biden’s candidacy. The president’s poll numbers are bad and getting worse in swing states. This has raised all sorts of flags about Democrats’ prospects in November. And it’s given Republicans hope that they can make some history on Election Day.

The House. Republicans enjoy a small majority that Democrats believe they can overturn in November, mainly because there are 17 House Republicans in districts Biden won in 2020.

But Hudson argues those Biden districts won’t be as winnable as Democrats think, labeling Biden “the most unpopular president in American history.”

“The American people have connected the dots that they are less prosperous and less safe because of his policies,” Hudson said of Biden.

Democrats insist that their candidates have unique profiles and can outrun the top of the ticket. There’s also the theory that voters may reward House Democrats to provide a check against unified GOP control of Washington, especially if it appears Republicans are running away with the Senate and White House.

Hudson said he’s not worried by either argument. The only thing that keeps Hudson up at night is the potential for Democrats to outspend the GOP.

“They’re running a campaign that says, ‘Yes, you’re less safe, less prosperous, but they’re scary,’” Hudson asserted of his Democratic counterparts. “So the only way that that could work is if they’re going to have money to make us look scarier.”

The battle for the Senate. Even before Democrats began publicly doubting Biden’s viability, Republicans were very optimistic about their chances to take back the Senate. They’re even more upbeat now.

West Virginia is already in the bag. Ohio and Montana are very winnable. Republicans see a target-rich map that includes battlegrounds like Nevada, Michigan, Arizona, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. Then there’s the potential Biden drag that puts all these states in play.

Take it from California’s Democratic Senate candidate — and likely winner — Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.). The New York Times reported that Schiff told donors Democrats would suffer serious losses across the board if Biden remains at the top of the ticket. We’ve reported that Biden has been told this directly by rank-and-file Democrats in private calls as well.

“Democrats are defending a lot, we’ve got a couple of seats we’re keeping an eye on on our side. But for the most part, it’s a fairly one-sided map, which is good for us,” Senate Minority Whip John Thune told us.

Despite Biden’s sagging popularity in the battleground states, Democratic Senate candidates have carved out their own brands distinct from Biden and the national party.

In battlegrounds like Pennsylvania, for instance, a Trump lead isn’t trickling down the ballot. A recent New York Times/Siena poll showed Trump leading Biden by three points in the Keystone State, but GOP Senate candidate Dave McCormick trailing Sen. Bob Casey (D-Pa.) by 11 points. There have been similar polls in Nevada, Arizona, Michigan and Wisconsin.

Another advantage Democrats have in these races is money. Democratic incumbents are far outraising challengers in a number of the key states. Wealthy GOP candidates like Eric Hovde in Wisconsin, Bernie Moreno in Ohio, Tim Sheehy in Montana and McCormick offset some of that Democratic advantage, as do super PACs.

Yet both sides have to make the same tough decisions about how to allocate their resources. Republicans have put Maryland on the map as well, forcing Democrats to spend there.

“The challenge we have right now in a lot of these races is just financing… and ensuring that we’re able to get that message out, because the map is so big and spread out this year,” Thune said. “[Democrats] have the same sort of allocation of resources issue that we do…. We’re at a financial disadvantage in our dollars. But at the end of the day, it’s not money alone that wins races.”

— Jake Sherman, Andrew Desiderio and Max Cohen

THE SENATE

How the Senate GOP leadership race is playing in Milwaukee

MILWAUKEE — The Senate GOP leadership race is far from the focus at the Republican convention. But a gathering of GOP delegates, donors and lawmakers of this size is a unique opportunity for the three candidates to build support for their bid to succeed Mitch McConnell.

As we’ve noted throughout our coverage of this contest, fundraising prowess is a critical element of their pitches.

But senators who will be voting in the secret-ballot election in late November are also thoroughly examining the candidates’ legislative records — and how those records square with their promises to empower individual senators and return to regular order. Meanwhile, McConnell has been urging Republicans privately to resist the urge to weaken the leader position.

So we wanted to use the occasion of the convention to delve into these proposals and how the leader hopefuls are selling them. All three candidates are in Milwaukee this week.

John Thune: The Senate minority whip is finishing up a six-year, term-limited tenure as the conference’s No. 2 leader and chief vote-counter.

Thune wants to “democratize” the conference. That means returning the legislative sausage-making process to the committee level and allowing an open amendment process on the floor.

If Thune wins, he’d be just the second party leader to head into the job with two full terms of standing committee chairmanships in the modern era. As chair of the Commerce Committee, Thune shepherded through major legislation on everything from preventing sex trafficking to landmark overhauls of the TSA and FAA.

In an interview here, Thune said his experience atop Commerce was a model for how the Senate should operate.

Empowering individual senators hasn’t always worked out well for Republicans, though. Sen. James Lankford (R-Okla.) was the lead GOP negotiator in the bipartisan border talks earlier this year. McConnell and Thune argued it was a rare opportunity to force Democrats to accept tough border restrictions.

When it collapsed — prompted by former President Donald Trump and Speaker Mike Johnson — Democrats used the issue to hammer Republicans for months.

Thune noted that since Democrats have the majority, Republicans were forced to operate under their terms. He would’ve preferred a normal committee process rather than private negotiations.

“In the majority, obviously, you can use committees to originate bills and have a more regular order process,” Thune said. “That was an unusual set of circumstances and obviously it didn’t get an outcome.”

John Cornyn: The Texas Republican, whose pitch for the leader job includes similar pledges on empowering the rank-and-file, preceded Thune as whip.

During that time, Cornyn helped lead the confirmations of Neil Gorsuch and Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court, two of the most difficult floor efforts in recent memory. The Gorsuch confirmation even required a Senate rules change on Supreme Court nominations.

And Cornyn helped oversee passage of the Trump-era tax cuts, the former president’s top legislative achievement.

But his tenure also included the collapse of Republicans’ efforts to repeal Obamacare. The death knell came when the late Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) voted no. It was a setback for congressional Republicans while they had unified control of Washington during Trump’s first two years in office.

Cornyn wasn’t available for an interview for this story.

Rick Scott: The Florida Republican was the only lawmaker of the three running to speak on the convention stage, but Scott didn’t focus on his leadership bid. Scott told us here that “people want change.”

Indeed, Scott is proposing perhaps the most significant overhaul of the conference. Scott says the party’s leader should only act based on the will of the majority of the conference, which resonates with many senators.

Yet Scott also has to focus on his own reelection to the Senate this year, and his legislative record is a lot thinner than those of Thune and Cornyn.

— Andrew Desiderio

THE HOUSE

After contentious calls, Biden reengages with the Hill

Democrats were stunned into silence this weekend, stifling their complaints about President Joe Biden after the attempted assassination of former President Donald Trump.

But the effort to get Biden to step aside is resuming as rank-and-file members seek to prevent the incumbent from gliding to a drama-free, virtual renomination this month.

Biden and his team are trying to head off another full-scale rebellion by shoring up support among key lawmakers of color — a critical base of support — and proactively engaging with some disgruntled Democrats who want him to go.

Biden campaigned with Congressional Black Caucus Chair Steven Horsford (D-Nev.), Rep. Jim Clyburn (D-S.C.) and Congressional Hispanic Caucus Chair Nanette Barragán (D-Calif.) on Tuesday in Las Vegas, along with several other CBC members.

This key trio of Democrats represents where Biden is the strongest right now — among voters of color. The CBC, the CHC and the Congressional Asian Pacific American Caucus have all received increased engagement from the Biden campaign in recent weeks.

What else the Biden campaign is doing: Beyond efforts to consolidate his close allies, Biden’s team is also beginning to reach out to some disaffected members following the tough reception he received last week during calls with key caucuses.

Biden campaign staff have extended an apology and offered to engage at a later time to members who didn’t get a chance to ask questions in the virtual meetings held over the weekend, according to a person familiar with the situation. We reported last week that Democratic Reps. Gabe Vasquez (N.M.) and Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (Wash.) were among the CHC members who didn’t get to ask questions in the caucus call. MGP has publicly suggested that Biden not only stop running for reelection but resign from office.

The Biden campaign also sent out new talking points about GOP vice presidential nominee Sen. JD Vance (R-Ohio) to members of his national advisory board on Monday, according to an office that received a copy.

“The president, rightly so, took a pause from campaigning and has focused on leading the nation in this difficult time,” Rep. Robert Garcia (D-Calif.) told us. “Now that the convention is obviously in full swing, you’ll see the campaign switching back to getting back to making the contrast [against Trump].”

Trouble ahead, however: Even as the president seeks to build goodwill and protect his Hill relationships, he still faces a long road ahead to appease Democratic lawmakers.

Exhibit A: A group of House Democrats are trying to delay an attempt by the DNC to fast-track Biden’s nominating process as soon as this weekend.

A letter is currently being circulated among lawmakers and several Frontline Democrats are considering signing on. We reported on Tuesday that Rep. Mike Levin (D-Calif.), who called for Biden to withdraw his reelection bid, plans to support the effort. Several other Democrats have also declared they will do so.

One House Democrat told us concerns about the DNC’s date was a central topic in meetings with leadership since the beginning of the month.

“This has been a proxy battle for the last few weeks between those who want to stick with Biden and those who want him to step aside,” the lawmaker said.

A source close to the campaign said there’s been internal tension about Biden not acting sooner to secure congressional relationships and who he chose to engage with.

The source noted that Rep. Adam Smith (Wash.), top Democrat on the Armed Services panel, has called for Biden to step aside while Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) has become one of the president’s staunchest defenders.

— Mica Soellner and Max Cohen

Real-time Canvass polling from RNC

While we’re in Milwaukee, Punchbowl News — in conjunction with our partners at LSG — is conducting rapid, overnight and morning polling of top Capitol Hill staffers and K Street leaders who are following the RNC speeches and events.

Our poll, The Canvass, will bring you exclusive and immediate reactions to the events of each night of the RNC. We will share the full results of our Tuesday overnight poll in today’s midday edition, so be sure to look out for it.

We will also have a live discussion of the results in Milwaukee with Punchbowl News’ Jake Sherman and Phillip Morris, partner at LSG at 1:30 p.m. CT/2:30 p.m. ET.

What to expect in Midday today: We gauged respondents’ thinking on several issues, including on the key speakers from day two of the convention.

We wanted to know whether respondents thought the remarks of several former rivals of former President Donald Trump who spoke Tuesday were effective in uniting the GOP behind the former president. Top Hill staffers and K Street leaders also shared their views on the GOP Senate candidates trying to expand their profiles and make their names known by clinching speaking slots at the RNC.

And of course, The Canvass respondents will weigh in on Trump’s choice of Sen. JD Vance (R-Ohio) as his running mate and whether the “Hillbilly Elegy” author is the best option to help Trump retake the White House.

We will also explore how united or divided the GOP is and how the assassination attempt on Trump will affect the current political environment.

— Elvina Nawaguna

THE CAMPAIGN

CHC BOLD PAC condemns crypto spending in Arizona race

News: Rep. Linda Sánchez (D-Calif.), the chair of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus’ political arm, is blasting a cryptocurrency-backed PAC for spending against a Latina candidate in Arizona’s 3rd District.

CHC BOLD PAC has endorsed Raquel Terán in the Democratic primary to succeed Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) in a deep-blue seat. But in a scathing statement first shared with Punchbowl News, Sánchez is slamming Protect Progress for its $1 million-plus ad buy boosting Democrat Yassamin Ansari.

“This is a blatant effort by an outside group to silence the voices of over half a million Latinos in a majority-Latino district in order to buy a seat in Congress,” Sánchez said.

Here’s more from Sánchez:

The BOLD PAC chair notes that the district is 65% Hispanic and Terán would make history if elected as the first Latina to represent Arizona in the House.

Terán has also been endorsed by Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.) and Planned Parenthood Action Fund in the Democratic primary.

Also: EMILYs List is endorsing Delaware Lt. Gov. Bethany Hall-Long to be the next governor of the state.

— Max Cohen

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