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THE TOP
What does Trump’s winning streak mean?
Happy Tuesday morning.
Everything seems to be breaking former President Donald Trump’s way right now.
President Joe Biden’s abysmal debate performance last week gave Trump — and down-ballot Republicans — a major boost. Trump’s fundraising is strong, eroding Biden’s once huge cash advantage.
The Supreme Court on Monday threw Trump a lifeline on his legal troubles in its ruling on presidential immunity for official actions, all but ensuring he won’t have to face any federal criminal proceedings before the election. Trump quickly used that same Supreme Court ruling in seeking to overturn his felony convictions in the New York hush-money case. In commenting on the ruling Monday night, Biden didn’t take a single question.
This morning, we wanted to examine the various ramifications of Trump cementing his status as the frontrunner in the presidential race. The conversation in D.C. — among political consultants, lawmakers and K Street stalwarts — is already shifting to the possibility that Republicans may control all of Washington next year.
We’ll note that it’s an extremely close race right now, although polls show Trump with a small — but definite — lead in swing states. Biden has lots of money and a huge campaign infrastructure. The Biden campaign announced it raised $264 million in the second quarter and has $240 million on hand.
And Trump is Trump. He motivates Democrats as well as his own base to come out and vote. He’s liable to do or say anything. Plus, there’s a long way to go.
With all those qualifications, here are some dynamics to watch.
The House becomes the priority. We’re hearing tons of chatter in Democratic circles that suggests much of the donor cash could shift to House races. Democrats only need to pick up five seats to take the majority.
The thinking here is that with the Senate almost certainly lost and confidence in Biden waning, the House could end up being the only thing that’s winnable for Democrats. Some Democrats now see a House majority as their only chance to prevent a GOP trifecta.
This would ensure that Democrats have, at the very least, a seat at the negotiating table for next year’s legislative battles, from the debt limit to government spending to the expiration of the Trump-era tax cuts.
Corporate money and big donors. The Biden campaign reported a big surge of donations following Thursday’s debate.
Yet if you’re a wealthy donor or a corporate executive sitting on the sidelines, it’s hard to bet on Biden right now. We’ve already heard about CEOs and top figures in corporate America — as well as big non-U.S. companies and foreign governments — trying to make inroads with Trump or his top aides, either via Republicans in Congress or Trump insiders.
Good luck, red-state Senate Dems. Sens. Jon Tester (D-Mont.) and Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) already face the daunting task of out-performing Biden in their states by massive margins if they want to get reelected.
The fallout from Biden’s debate performance makes that even harder, especially as the GOP campaigns are relentlessly seeking to tie Democratic incumbents to the president. We scooped on Monday that Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer was in Cincinnati for Brown.
This will also impact Sens. Jacky Rosen (D-Nev.), Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.) and Bob Casey (D-Pa.), as well as the eventual Democratic nominee in Michigan. But Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin are must-wins for Biden. If Biden doesn’t take at least two of those states, he can’t win — especially if Trump wins Georgia, Nevada and possibly Arizona.
What happens with Ukraine? Far-right political forces are on the rise throughout Europe. Just look at Sunday’s elections in France and the European Union parliamentary elections a few weeks earlier. Pair that with a Trump presidency and you could see a significant fracturing of the Western coalition backing Ukraine.
The massive foreign aid package that Congress approved earlier this year is only expected to last until early 2025, so there will undoubtedly be a push for more military assistance at the end of this year or the beginning of next year.
As we mentioned earlier, a Democratic-controlled House would give the party a seat at the negotiating table when it comes to any new Ukraine funding. Most Senate Republicans will push for it too. But none of that may matter if a newly inaugurated Trump refuses to go along.
Government funding. Government funding runs out on Sept. 30, and lawmakers will need to pass a continuing resolution to avoid a shutdown. This is standard procedure in an election year.
With no deal yet on a topline number for FY2025 spending, the House has already begun moving GOP-drafted appropriations bills. These won’t get anywhere in the Senate, and the White House is already threatening vetoes. But there’s another issue at play.
A number of hardline GOP conservatives are urging their leadership not to make any deal on government funding. They want to wait until Trump takes office in January so he can slash spending across the board except for defense, border security and Veterans Affairs. Speaker Mike Johnson and House Appropriations Committee Chair Tom Cole (R-Okla.) don’t like the idea. They note that approach didn’t work out for Trump and Republicans in 2017.
But this chorus will only get louder on the right if a Trump victory seems more likely.
— Andrew Desiderio, John Bresnahan and Jake Sherman
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Most GOP lawmakers support Biden tariffs on imports from China
Nearly half of top congressional staffers say their boss supports the Biden administration slapping tariffs on electric vehicles, solar panels, medical supplies, semiconductor chips and other products made in China.
The findings are part of our most recent survey of top congressional staffers, The Canvass Capitol Hill. Notably, most Republicans (53%) who responded sided with Biden on the tariffs.
The White House in May announced it was taking steps to “counter China’s unfair trade practices” and protect U.S. workers and businesses. President Joe Biden directed the U.S. trade representative to levy tariffs on $18 billion of goods imported from China.
Biden’s decision to tax certain imports from China mirrors similar actions by former President Donald Trump when he was in office. It’s no surprise that Biden is taking similar steps in a contentious election year where the president is struggling to get his economic message to resonate with voters.
As we wrote Monday in The Vault, you’re about to hear a whole lot about tariffs as Election Day draws nearer. Trump already has Republicans on the defensive with his proposal to levy a 10% tax on imports across the board and to place other restrictions on imports from China. That puts Biden under pressure to show he can be just as tough on China as Trump.
Just 13% of respondents to the survey said their lawmaker opposes Biden’s tariffs on China. Unsurprisingly, 60% of Democrats said Biden’s policy on China will help his reelection bid. Two-thirds of Republicans didn’t think it would change anything for Biden. The survey was conducted June 3-21 in partnership with independent public affairs firm, LSG.
Want to take part in The Canvass? Our survey provides anonymous monthly insights from top Capitol Hill staffers and K Street leaders on key issues Washington is dealing with. Sign up here if you work on K Street. Click here to sign up if you’re a senior congressional staffer.
— Elvina Nawaguna
Weekday mornings, The Daily Punch brings you inside Capitol Hill, the White House, and Washington.
Listen NowCAMPAIGN CASH
Janelle Stelson raises $1.3 million
Janelle Stelson, the Democrat challenging Rep. Scott Perry (R-Pa.), raised an impressive $1.3 million in the last quarter and has more than $1 million cash on hand. Roughly 80% of the donations were small donor gifts, according to her campaign.
That’s pretty notable for a political newcomer taking on a six-term incumbent.
Perry hasn’t released his numbers yet, but we previously reported he had a little more than $500,000 cash on hand. The incumbent has also been hit with legal fees due to his lawsuit against the federal government after the FBI seized his phone as part of the Jan. 6 investigation.
Pennsylvania’s 10th District currently leans R+4, but Democrats have sought to make it a viable pickup opportunity this year.
A June poll from Franklin & Marshall College suggested the race is currently at a virtual tie with Stelson down just one point to Perry.
We’ll note, though, that Perry’s margins of victory in each general election have improved since 2018.
Stelson is a former Harrisburg TV news anchor who has moderated debates involving Perry in previous cycles. Perry is the former chair of the House Freedom Caucus.
— Mica Soellner
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THE CAMPAIGN
Brutal Gaetz ad hits airwaves in Florida
Voters in Rep. Matt Gaetz’s (R-Fla.) northern Florida district are seeing a brutal ad, rehashing his association with a convicted felon.
The spot, which is being run by Florida Patriots PAC, a new super PAC, talks about Gaetz’s friendship with Joel Greenberg, a former local official who pleaded guilty to sex trafficking charges. Greenberg cooperated with the federal probe into Gaetz. The Justice Department decided against filing any charges against Gaetz, despite Greenberg’s information.
We don’t know who is behind this super PAC. But Gaetz voted against former Speaker Kevin McCarthy. McCarthy has used super PACs to go after other rivals, including House Freedom Caucus Chair Bob Good (R-Va.), who appears to be losing to John McGuire.
Here’s the spot.
At the same time, the same super PAC is running a positive ad about Aaron Dimmock, who is challenging Gaetz in the Republican primary. The ad calls Dimmock a “pro-Trump conservative.” It also notes that Dimmock, a Naval aviator, patrolled Ground Zero after Sept. 11.
— Jake Sherman
DOWNTOWN MOVES
Top Scalise staffer heading downtown
News: Annie Wolf, a longtime top House Republican leadership aide, is heading to Mehlman Consulting.
Wolf has been a mainstay in House Republican leadership for more than a decade, helping steer strategy for nearly every major legislative debate.
Wolf was most recently the deputy floor director to House Majority Leader Steve Scalise. Wolf previously served as chief of staff to Rep. Drew Ferguson’s (R-Ga.) chief deputy whip operation. She also worked on the House Rules Committee and as a floor assistant to former Speakers John Boehner and Paul Ryan.
Mehlman Consulting has a large client roster, representing AARP, Adobe, AFLAC, Ariel Investments, Chevron, Citigroup, the University of Pennsylvania, Diageo, Humana, Mattel, Netflix, Starbucks and Boeing.
— Jake Sherman
THE CAMPAIGN
Schiff’s big California brunch — and more
Behind the scenes: Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.), the Democratic nominee for Senate in California, held a fundraiser in Los Angeles Saturday for Democratic Senate candidates and incumbents that raised more than $700,000.
The brunch fundraiser benefitted Schiff, Sens. Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.), Bob Casey (D-Pa.), Jacky Rosen (D-Nev.), Jon Tester (D-Mont.), Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio), Reps. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.), Colin Allred (D-Texas) and Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.). Second Gentleman Doug Emhoff was in attendance, as were Baldwin, Gallego, Casey, Allred and Slotkin.
Bush on the air: Rep. Cori Bush (D-Mo.), who’s facing a competitive primary challenge from Wesley Bell, is airing a new ad that hails her support for abortion rights while attacking Bell’s ties to the GOP.
In her latest spot, Bush says she’s motivated to fight to protect access to abortion because of her personal story of undergoing an abortion at age 17 after being sexually assaulted. Bush also mentions that she’s working with President Joe Biden to protect abortion rights.
Bush slams Bell for serving as a campaign manager for an “anti-abortion” Missouri Republican in 2006.
Bush’s ad is notable given the United Democracy Project — AIPAC’s super PAC that spent nearly $15 million to defeat Rep. Jamaal Bowman (D-N.Y.) — started running an ad this week boosting Bell’s record on abortion rights.
The UDP ad noted that as the St. Louis County prosecuting attorney, Bell signed on to an effort to stop the Supreme Court from overturning Roe.
There’s just over a month to go before the Aug. 6 Democratic primary in Missouri’s 1st District. Expect a ton more ads between now and then.
Pfluger sharing the cash: Rep. August Pfluger (R-Texas) contributed $700,000 from his American Battleground Fund to vulnerable House Republican colleagues last week. Pfluger, in his second term in the House, is one of the most prolific fundraisers in the House Republican Conference. Here’s the list of recipients.
— Max Cohen and Jake Sherman
MOMENTS
ALL TIMES EASTERN
10 a.m.
President Joe Biden will get his daily intelligence briefing.
11 a.m.
The House will meet in a pro forma session.
11:30 a.m.
Biden will depart the White House en route to the D.C. Emergency Operations Center.
11:45 a.m.
Biden will get an operational briefing and deliver remarks on extreme weather.
1:10 p.m.
Biden will return to the White House.
2:30 p.m.
Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre will brief.
4:40 p.m.
Biden will travel to McLean, Va., for a campaign reception.
6:50 p.m.
Biden will return to the White House.
CLIPS
NYT
“Two More Democratic Lawmakers Express Concern About Biden After Debate”
– Chris Cameron
NYT
“Israeli Generals, Low on Munitions, Want a Truce in Gaza”
— Ronen Bergman, Patrick Kingsley and Natan Odenheimer
WSJ
“Why Kamala Harris Would Be Biden’s Likeliest Replacement”
– Catherine Lucey and Tarini Parti
AP
“Trump says he can end the Russia-Ukraine war in one day. Russia’s UN ambassador says he can’t”
– Edith M. Lederer at the United Nations
Editorial photos provided by Getty Images. Political ads courtesy of AdImpact.
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