Johnson and Trump on the brink of a massive victory

IN THIS EDITION

Trump is on the brink of getting the One Big Beautiful Bill

Tech: Guthrie will keep fighting for AI freeze

The Vault: Lummis unveils crypto tax package

Democrat eyes opportunity with Bacon’s retirement

THE TOP

Trump is on the brink of getting the One Big Beautiful Bill

Happy Thursday morning.

It looks like Speaker Mike Johnson and President Donald Trump will make their July 4 deadline.

The House is on the cusp of passing the One Big Beautiful Bill after an unprecedented and exhausting marathon day in the Capitol. This will be a massive victory for Johnson, House Majority Leader Steve Scalise, Trump and Senate Majority Leader John Thune.

As of press time, the House was debating the package. Final passage is expected at some point early this morning.

But the path that led to this moment was unbelievably tortured and — at times — unbelievable.

The House held back-to-back votes open for a combined 14 hours, as Johnson, his leadership team, Trump and senior administration officials furiously whipped holdout GOP lawmakers to back the $3.3 trillion package.

The GOP bill will extend and expand the 2017 Trump cuts — including new tax cuts for tips, overtime and Social Security recipients, all presidential priorities – while also making huge cuts to Medicaid and SNAP funding. This will leave millions of Americans without health insurance. Republicans also included hundreds of billions of dollars in new defense and border security money.

Trump and GOP leaders assert the package is needed to boost the U.S. economy after years of Democratic mismanagement under former President Joe Biden. Democrats and budget experts counter that it will add trillions to the national debt. Democrats blasted the bill as “cruel,” “disgusting” and “a huge benefit to billionaires.”

The last chapter of this drama over the last 24 hours had more twists and turns than the final episode of White Lotus.

At around 3:20 a.m., after holding the vote open for nearly six hours while Johnson and Trump lobbied them furiously, several hardline conservative holdouts voted to move forward with the measure, ending a dramatic floor stalemate.

The holdouts included Reps. Josh Brecheen (Okla.), Eric Burlison (Mo.)., Keith Self (Texas), Scott Perry (Pa.), Bob Onder (Mo.), Andy Harris (Md.) and Chip Roy (Texas).

Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Pa.), a moderate, was the only no vote.

What makes this so remarkable is that Harris, Roy and Self spent a huge chunk of this week dumping all over the bill, only to vote for it with absolutely no changes a day later. Roy went as far as to say that he wouldn’t vote for a rule at all and indicated he wanted to revise the package and send it back to the Senate. That’s not going to happen now.

“We made some progress on some fiscal issues,” Self told us early this morning.

The House Freedom Caucus caved once again.

They will lose a tremendous amount of sway in the wake of this episode.

Much of the conversation overnight centered around the implementation of the bill, the nation’s fiscal trajectory and what kinds of executive orders the Trump administration might issue to assuage the concerns of conservatives.

Johnson said the Senate made more changes “than I anticipated.” Johnson added that rank-and-file House Republicans needed to “process that, ask questions about it, make sure they fully understood it and all the implications and some of that was still going on tonight.”

Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) was a one-man rollercoaster for the GOP leadership. Massie railed against the bill all week. He initially voted for the rule. But then at 11:30 p.m., Massie entered a mostly empty House chamber and switched his vote from yes to no.

However, Massie – who Trump has personally targeted for defeat in 2026 – switched again back to yes when all the hardliners flipped. The GOP leadership hopes that Massie will vote for final passage later this morning. And he has made clear that he would like Trump to stop attacking him.

Surprising yes votes on the procedural rule vote included Rep. David Valadao (R-Calif.), who represents a district chock full of Medicaid recipients. Valadao voted for the motion at 11:20 p.m. as most of the members were already gone. Valadao lost his seat in 2018, only to regain it in 2020.

The implications. The giant GOP bill’s passage gives some firm definition to the 119th Congress and an early peek at the political stakes of the 2026 midterm elections.

Johnson, Trump and Thune have gambled that the reconciliation bill is a large enough grab bag that it has something for every Republican to like and tout at home. The GOP leadership is hoping that House Republicans will talk about extending the 2017 Trump tax cuts and the new tax breaks for overtime pay and tips.

The massive gamble is that voters won’t be turned off by Republicans cutting $1 trillion from Medicaid and SNAP.

On Wednesday, GOP lawmakers threw their caution to the wind to advance the OBBB over these reservations. For example, Rep. Greg Murphy (R-N.C.), a physician in his fourth term, told reporters he was worried about the bill’s steep funding cuts to rural hospitals. Murphy eventually voted for the bill.

On Johnson. Today is Johnson’s 617th day as speaker, a job he won in 2023 despite his lack of leadership experience. Johnson’s best trait was that no one disliked him.

Now, six months into full GOP control of Washington, it’s best to think of Johnson’s speakership as a joint venture with Trump.

The 53-year-old Louisiana Republican has a power-sharing agreement, of sorts, with Trump and can’t get anything done without the ever-powerful president. This is both a strength and a weakness. About 90% of the GOP conference quickly falls in line with Johnson, his tactics and his agenda. The last 10% needs direct cajoling, convincing and constant care from Trump.

On the reconciliation bill, one can argue that Johnson put himself in this position. He set an arbitrary July 4 deadline. He told Republicans that the Senate would not change the House’s reconciliation package. And when the Senate did overhaul the legislation significantly, Johnson insisted on barrelling through, pushing the bill through the House over an exhausting 48-hour period instead of pausing and waiting a few days.

All of these decisions could be viewed as unforced errors. But Johnson has a patience, steadiness and calm that is unusual in congressional leadership. He chooses a path and sticks to it, despite bumps or curves in the road.

So Johnson deserves a good deal of credit here. He pushed for one bill instead of two. He developed the framework that served as the skeleton for this package. And he got it through in 164 days.

– Jake Sherman, Laura Weiss, Samantha Handler, Brendan Pedersen, Ally Mutnick and John Bresnahan

NEW: Check out our second feature of The Future of Energy, in partnership with Duke Energy, that explores the legislative landscape as lawmakers are pushing for changes that would drastically impact the U.S. energy sector.

Tech: Guthrie will keep fighting for AI freeze

House Energy and Commerce Committee Chair Brett Guthrie (R-Ky.) isn’t giving up on preventing states from regulating artificial intelligence despite a big defeat in the Senate this week.

Guthrie said Congress will continue to work on establishing a federal framework for AI policy and stop “50 other standards” in the states.

Guthrie committed to the effort even though 99 senators rejected the idea of preempting state AI laws when they passed their version of the reconciliation bill Tuesday. The Kentucky Republican said the overwhelming Senate vote “surprised” him.

“I’m not sure why it went that way when people advocating for it voted against it,” Guthrie said. “I don’t know the dynamics of that. Everybody has their own vote.”

Guthrie said he was in favor of the compromise between Sens. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) and Marsha Blackburn (R-Tenn.) that came apart hours before the vote Tuesday. The agreement would have reduced the preemption of state laws to five years, instead of the 10-year ban the House passed.

“I was fine with it being shorter,” Guthrie said. “Ten years was a long time.”

Guthrie said the idea was to first impose a state preemption and then work on getting a federal AI standard on the books. Five years should be enough time since Congress will “hopefully” get a federal law in the next two years, he added.

Guthrie, Cruz and technology companies say stopping AI regulation in the states is critical for the United States to win the AI race with China. Forcing companies to navigate a “patchwork” of state laws will slow development of the technology, they say.

But if the AI preempting debacle in the Senate is any guide, restricting the states before establishing a federal standard will be an arduous task.

Democrats, led by Sen. Maria Cantwell (D-Wash.), scored a major win this week when they were joined by every GOP senator, except Thom Tillis (N.C.), in defeating the provision. Even Cruz voted against his own proposal.

The proposed freeze drew fierce opposition from state officials from both parties, consumer groups, unions and religious figures. The opponents all cited congressional inaction in several areas, including social media, as reason to doubt that lawmakers would take rapid action to regulate AI.

If Guthrie wants to avoid the “patchwork” anytime soon he’ll have to convince all these folks that Congress can indeed take action.

— Diego Areas Munhoz and Ben Brody

ON THE TRAIL

Democrat eyes opportunity with Bacon’s retirement

Fresh off Rep. Don Bacon (R-Neb.) announcing his retirement plans, Democrat Denise Powell sees a strong chance for Democrats to finally flip Nebraska’s 2nd District.

The Omaha-area business owner and political activist is running her campaign as a “fired up mom” who wants to bring a new face to the district that’s been held by Bacon since 2017.

Powell is centering her campaign on economic issues, highlighting the rising cost of living and paying bills.

“I hate seeing people feel like nobody’s listening to them, and they’re not getting a call back from their representative and there’s no one listening to them,” Powell told us. “I feel that way too, so I think it’s time for someone like me to stand up and speak up.”

Blue Dot target. Powell could face a crowded primary after Bacon’s retirement announcement. Vice President Kamala Harris won the seat last year.

Bacon was first elected to the House in 2016 when he beat former Democratic Rep. Brad Ashford. Building a brand as a pragmatic Republican, Bacon successfully fended off four Democratic challengers in subsequent election cycles.

But with the NRCC scrambling to find a suitable candidate, Democrats are viewing this seat as one of its top pickup opportunities. The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter moved Nebraska’s 2nd District from a “Toss Up” to “Lean Democrat.”

Powell is already facing several other contenders in the race, including state Sen. John Cavanaugh, who announced his campaign last week.

Yet Powell has picked up some early endorsements, including Tony Vargas, who narrowly lost to Bacon last cycle.

Powell is also hopeful for a sea change in Nebraska after the Omaha mayoral race, in which Democrat John Ewing Jr. beat GOP incumbent Jean Stothert.

“Winds of change are blowing through Nebraska,” Powell said. “We had some incredible results in our Omaha mayoral race that I think is a good sign of things to come.”

The Nebraska Democratic primary will be in May 2026.

– Mica Soellner

THE CAMPAIGN

Ad news: Liberal group Unrig Our Economy is going after Sen. Joni Ernst (R-Iowa) for her vote supporting the GOP reconciliation package. The ad, part of a $5 million campaign targeting Senate Republicans, has Iowans saying their health care is now at risk thanks to Ernst’s vote. The Iowa Republican’s now-infamous, “Well, we are all going to die” comments feature prominently.

Fundraising news: Former state Rep. Daniel Hernandez has raised $1 million since launching his campaign for Arizona’s 7th District. Hernandez, a Democrat, is running to fill the late Rep. Raúl Grijalva’s (D-Ariz.) seat. Grijalva’s daughter, Adelita Grijalva, is seen as the favorite in the special election.

Joe Males, a Republican running to unseat Rep. Raul Ruiz (D-Calif.), raised $334,000 in Q2.

— Max Cohen

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