The Archive

IN THIS EDITION

Hill Dems: Biden won’t take us down with him

Inside the next leaders of House Dem groups

Hill staffers see Thune as likely McConnell successor

Hogan to fundraise with Santorum

THE TOP

Hill Dems: Biden won’t take us down with him

Happy Thursday morning. And happy Fourth of July!

With President Joe Biden declaring he intends to remain in the race for the White House, House and Senate Democratic leaders face a huge question — can they win in November if he’s at the top of the ticket?

Their answer: The crisis surrounding Biden doesn’t change the outlook much for their incumbents or challengers. That’s the argument senior Democrats are making in public and private to push back against the claim that Biden will drag them down on Election Day.

Here’s how it goes.

Now that former President Donald Trump is the clear frontrunner in the race for the White House, a lot of the campaign cash, media attention and the Democratic Party’s organizational muscle will shift toward down-ballot races. Hill Democrats emphasize that it’s critical to win the House and limit losses in the Senate in order to put up a firewall against Trump’s agenda.

As evidence, Hill Democrats point to the fact that their most vulnerable House and Senate incumbents continue to poll either slightly ahead of or dead even with their GOP challengers. Those Republican candidates are running well behind Trump in those polls.

Rank-and-file Democrats also have plenty of money, and donations are surging as Biden stumbles. And some of the most vulnerable Democrats — such as Sens. Jon Tester (D-Mont.) and Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) — always knew it was going to be an uphill battle in a presidential election year anyway.

“As we’ve always said, Senate campaigns are candidate vs. candidate battles and Republicans have a roster of deeply flawed recruits,” said David Bergstein, the DSCC’s communications director. “We’ll win because we have the better candidates.”

Battleground race polls overwhelmingly show Senate Democrats leading in these races. That hasn’t changed following Biden’s debate debacle, at least not yet. A new Nevada poll released on Wednesday showed Trump up by 10 points in the Silver State, yet Democratic Sen. Jacky Rosen with an eight-point lead over Republican challenger Sam Brown.

Democrats we spoke with this week also pointed to our recent reporting on Trump’s meeting with Senate Republicans to argue that even GOP senators acknowledge their candidates are flawed. During that meeting, Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) raised alarms about the fact that Trump is out-performing GOP Senate candidates in the battleground states, and asked the former president to do more to boost them.

Of course, that was well before the Biden-Trump debate spurred the current emergency for Democrats. GOP insiders argue that Biden’s abysmal performance will help Republicans close that gap between Trump and their Senate candidates. But it may take days, if not weeks, for that to show up in polling.

Democrats also claim the media is overhyping the impact Biden will have on down-ballot races.

“Democrats run common-sense, independent-minded candidates who are focused on kitchen table issues,” Viet Shelton, a DCCC spokesman, said. “Meanwhile Republicans run extremists who only care about acting like and obeying Trump — peddling conspiracy theories, taking away reproductive freedom and pushing tax breaks for the ultra-wealthy.”

Money keeps flowing into Democratic coffers, a huge plus. The DCCC raised $1.3 million online in the days following last week’s Biden-Trump debate. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries and former President Barack Obama raised $3 million at an event last Friday.

Yet the evidence that Democrats are wrong — or just spinning very hard — abounds.

A number of House Democrats have said Biden should drop out or are openly predicting a Trump win. Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.) will be somewhere else when the president travels to Wisconsin on Friday. Biden gave an interview to a Milwaukee radio host admitting “I screwed up” during the debate.

We’re also beginning to see Republican candidates ramp up efforts to tie their Democratic opponents to the weakened Biden.

Dave McCormick, the GOP Senate candidate in Pennsylvania, has a new ad out saying Biden and Sen. Bob Casey (D-Pa.) “are too weak” to stop the crisis at the U.S.-Mexico border. Here’s the spot.

Casey’s lead over McCormick has averaged five points since April, according to RealClear Polling.

However, some Democratic strategists privately fear that edge is eroding as Biden flounders. Biden is trailing Trump by four points in the latest Pennsylvania polls, despite the dozens of trips the president has taken there. Biden will be in Philadelphia on Sunday, and Casey is scheduled to appear with him. Biden badly needs to win Pennsylvania to have any hope of winning reelection.

Those Nevada poll results also face some serious doubts from political pros there.

“I believe Rosen is running ahead of Biden, but that’s not hard to do these days,” Jon Ralston, CEO and editor of the Nevada Independent, told us. “My gut tells me that in November, if Trump wins Nevada outside the margin of error, which is unlikely but possible, Rosen is in big trouble.”

— John Bresnahan, Andrew Desiderio and Jake Sherman

MUSICAL CHAIRS

Inside the next leaders of House Dem groups

House Democrats need only a five-seat swing right now to reclaim the majority in November. If the party succeeds, the leaders of the Democrats’ intra-caucus coalitions could be key to governing the next Congress. Here’s who’s set to take the reins:

Congressional Progressive Caucus: Rep. Greg Casar (D-Texas) seems ready to take over from CPC Chair Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.) atop the influential leftist bloc next year. Casar, who is still a freshman, is currently the group’s whip.

Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-Minn.), the CPC deputy chair, told us she isn’t running for chair. “No,” Omar said last week. “Greg is.”

When we asked Casar, the Texas Democrat didn’t rule it out but said he is hoping to discuss his plans with his colleagues before he formally decides to run.

“I’m committed to talking to every CPC member about the future of our caucus before making any further comments on this,” Casar told us.

New Democrat Coalition: With Rep. Annie Kuster (D-N.H.) retiring, Reps. Sharice Davids (D-Kan.) and Brad Schneider (D-Ill.) are battling to be the next chair of the pro-business, center-left group.

Davids, a former MMA fighter and a Frontliner, was elected in 2018 and has consistently outperformed national Democrats in her seat. Schneider first arrived in Congress after flipping a red seat in 2012 and has emerged as a key voice on foreign policy.

We’ll have much more on this race next week, featuring interviews with both candidates.

Congressional Hispanic Caucus: CHC Deputy Chair Adriano Espaillat (D-N.Y.) is favored to succeed current Chair Nanette Barragán (D-Calif.). Here’s what Espaillat said when we asked if he was running:

Several other CHC members we asked about the race said it’s unlikely Espaillat will be challenged.

Congressional Black Caucus: Rep. Yvette Clarke (D-N.Y.) is the favorite to chair the CBC next Congress.

Clarke currently is the caucus’ first vice chair and previously served as the group’s whip.

— Max Cohen and Mica Soellner

Hill staffers see Thune as likely McConnell successor

Nearly three-quarters of senior GOP and Democratic Hill staffers believe Senate Minority Whip John Thune is the most likely candidate to succeed Mitch McConnell as the chamber’s GOP leader, according to our most recent survey.

Republican senators are expected to pick their next leader in a secret vote in late November.

Should Thune win the job, he’d replace McConnell, who has held the post since 2007 and is the longest-serving Senate party leader in U.S. history. Thune briefly filled in for McConnell when the Kentucky Republican was absent from the Senate due to health challenges last summer.

But Thune has had a rocky relationship with former President Donald Trump, the presumptive GOP nominee for president. Thune condemned Trump for the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol and initially endorsed Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.) for president. Thune, however, endorsed Trump in February after it became clear the former president would be the GOP nominee.

Respondents placed Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) and Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.) in second and third places respectively. Both Cornyn and Scott believe in term limits for the Senate GOP leader, which McConnell has opposed.

Cornyn possesses similar fundraising capabilities as McConnell and served as GOP whip during Trump’s presidency. Scott has been critical of McConnell’s leadership and ran against him for the Senate GOP leader position in 2022, although he was soundly defeated.

The Canvass Capitol Hill was conducted June 3-21 in partnership with independent public affairs firm, LSG.

Want to take part in The Canvass? Our survey provides anonymous monthly insights from top Capitol Hill staffers and K Street leaders on key issues Washington is dealing with. Sign up here if you work on K Street. Click here to sign up if you’re a senior congressional staffer.

— Donna Baeck

THE CAMPAIGN

Hogan to fundraise with Santorum

News: Former Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan is attending a fundraiser this month with former Sen. Rick Santorum (R-Pa.).

Hogan is running for Senate against Democrat Angela Alsobrooks. It’s an uphill battle in a state that is heavily Democratic. Here’s the invite to the fundraiser.

We’ll note that Santorum is a social conservative who’s strongly anti-abortion rights. Hogan has pledged to protect abortion rights if elected.

— Max Cohen

DOWNTOWN DOWNLOAD

Matt Mowers, the former Trump administration official and congressional candidate now at Valcour LLC, is lobbying for ​BHCR HQ, a refrigerant company.

– Jake Sherman

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