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THE TOP
Why Biden is surviving right now
Happy Tuesday morning.
If you listened to the rhetoric coming from some House Democrats during the last week, it seemed like President Joe Biden was toast. A dozen lawmakers publicly said the president should stand aside or was going to lose to former President Donald Trump on Election Day. Lawmakers’ private analyses were far more brutal — Biden is done, it’s over, he needs to go now.
Then there’s this Wall Street Journal story, which is incredibly damning. It says Biden couldn’t remember the word “veteran” at a fundraiser. The story also details how Biden missed a meeting with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz on the sidelines of the G7 in 2022. In private, many Hill Democrats say Biden is fatigued, forgetful and often confused.
But a mix of political dynamics has changed Biden’s fortunes for the moment. We emphasize that this reprieve may be temporary. House and Senate Democrats are both caucusing today and we expect these meetings could get messy.
We wanted to explore four key factors that have given the 81-year-old Biden some breathing room.
1) Who’s against Biden and who isn’t. Not a single Senate Democrat has said that Biden should step off the party’s presidential ticket. They’ve expressed concerns and warned Biden still has to make his case to remain the Democratic nominee. But none has declared Biden is unfit for office or isn’t capable of serving another term.
And while there are a dozen or so House Democrats openly speaking out against Biden, most of his critics inside the party are doing so behind the scenes. None of the current dissenters are considered thought leaders in the House Democratic Caucus either.
2) Leadership is listening to everyone — and hearing different things. If House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer were going to move against Biden, they’d need near unanimity in their ranks that the president wasn’t fit to run. They have nothing even remotely close to that.
The Congressional Black Caucus, the most powerful bloc of House Democrats, is firmly behind Biden.
The Congressional Hispanic Caucus’ top two leaders, Reps. Nanette Barragán (D-Calif.) and Adriano Espaillat (D-N.Y.), issued a statement late Monday declaring: “We stand with President Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris.”
Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) and the Squad — often critical of the president — are backing him as well. Biden called AOC over the weekend.
Jeffries made no bones Monday once again declaring his support for the president:
“I made clear the day after the debate publicly that I support President Joe Biden and the Democratic ticket. My position has not changed.”
Later, we asked Jeffries what he’d say to his colleagues who are still skeptical about backing Biden. Jeffries clearly is frustrated with the inquiries:
“When I was a lawyer, one of my favorite expressions in the courtroom was ‘Asked and answered.’ Thank you.”
“But I can tell you what is clear in this caucus is there is no light between us and the president in putting the American people first, defeating Donald Trump, and getting to work on those solutions the American people sent us here for,” added House Minority Whip Katherine Clark.
3) Moderates are caught between their own political survival and party loyalty. Moderate and vulnerable red-state Democrats aren’t yet coming out in droves calling for Biden to give it up. While these lawmakers will do whatever it takes to win their own races, they also want to stay somewhat loyal to the party and to Biden. Plus, it’s a big deal to dump a sitting president like this.
That’s part of what’s keeping Democrats like Sens. Jon Tester (Mont.), Sherrod Brown (Ohio) and others from demanding Biden step aside. Instead, they’re saying it’s valid to question Biden’s ability to defeat Trump. Tellingly, however, these vulnerable Democrats aren’t saying what they think Biden should do to reassure them.
But while this may be a good stall tactic before national attention shifts to the GOP convention next week, Biden’s defenders worry that Democrats’ own amplification of his problems is only serving to weaken the president further.
Take Sen. Tina Smith (D-Minn.), for example. Smith said she has “a lot of concerns” about Biden and that Democrats should have a “robust discussion about what comes next.”
Yet when we asked if Smith is concerned that the discussion itself is just feeding into the GOP attacks on Biden and hurting his ability to defeat Trump, she said people should be talking about how Trump is a liar, a “convicted felon” and wants to “strip away women’s reproductive freedoms.”
4) It’s hard to dump a president. Here’s the reality — it would be really difficult to boot Biden off the ticket. First of all, Biden is dug in very deep. Biden has said repeatedly that he won’t drop out of the race.
Then there are a plethora of questions about ballot access and access to the Biden campaign’s hundreds of millions of dollars in contributions.
Added to that is the fact that millions of voters have voted for Biden in primaries. And elected Democrats aren’t willing to buck them.
Here’s CBC Chair Steven Horsford of Nevada:
“Yes, I’m the chair of the Black Caucus, but I represent one of the most diverse districts in the country. And overwhelmingly those voters that I’ve heard from… have said, President Joe Biden is our nominee.”
— Jake Sherman, Andrew Desiderio and John Bresnahan
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The Vault: W&M Dems huddle on 2025, plus the Powell-Yellen splitscreen
Tax news: Ways and Means Committee Democrats met Monday night to prep for the 2025 fight over the expiring Trump tax cuts with a special guest: Thomas Barthold, the Joint Committee on Taxation chief of staff.
House Democratic tax writers heard from Barthold and talked through the distributional effects of tax provisions for 2025, according to four sources in the meeting.
Ways and Means Democrats have been quietly starting to huddle on next year’s tax cliff with a focus on messaging, education and getting on the same page for the debate to come.
Democrats who were on Ways and Means last Congress before their ranks shrank in the minority have also been invited to the meetings. Rep. Tom Suozzi (D-N.Y.) — who was on the committee before he left Congress to run for governor — was at Monday night’s huddle.
It’s the latest sign of how much focus is shifting to the looming deadline — which both parties see as a key opportunity to shape a major tax bill. House and Senate Republicans have set up more formal working groups to get ready for the 2025 push. Senate Finance Committee Democrats held their first major private meeting in June.
The other big news today: Two of the most powerful figures in financial policy will testify simultaneously this morning. Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell will appear before the Senate Banking Committee at 10 a.m. And Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen will talk about international finance and probably some other stuff at the House Financial Services Committee.
Here’s what you need to know going in.
Powell: The U.S. central banker is showing up to talk about monetary policy. On that, lawmakers will have no shortage of comments, questions and concerns.
Policymakers, economists and bankers have a keen interest in when the Federal Reserve will move to cut interest rates after keeping them historically high since March 2022. It appears possible — but by no means certain — that the Fed could cut rates in September. That’s the last possible cut before the 2024 general election.
Senate Banking Committee Chair Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) will devote part of his opening remarks tomorrow to stressing the impact of high rates on consumers. Brown has previously asked Powell to consider cutting rates for the sake of housing costs.
“Keeping rates too high for too long threatens workers’ paychecks while keeping other costs high – particularly housing,” Brown will say today. “Housing prices and rents continue to go up.”
Powell will appear before the House Financial Services Committee on Wednesday. Rep. Andy Barr (R-Ky.) told reporters Monday night that a September rate hike “will not be perceived as apolitical.”
“I want [Powell] to reiterate that the Fed’s monetary policy trajectory is going to be data dependent and not political,” Barr said.
Yellen: The Treasury Secretary will be testifying about international finance today. As we wrote over the weekend, we also expect her to be grilled on less topical affairs, including the well-being of President Joe Biden and possible applications of the 25th amendment.
But international finance has plenty going on. Rep. French Hill (R-Ark.) told us he planned to press Yellen to use the REPO Act to its full extent. Hill was a key architect behind that law, which passed earlier this spring. The statute authorizes the U.S. government to seize Russian assets to aid Ukraine. That approach makes our European allies nervous, and Yellen has responded by pushing for a compromise approach.
“I’d like the secretary to address why she’s not using the full powers of our REPO Act that was enacted with strong bipartisan consensus and majorities,” Hill said.
— Laura Weiss and Brendan Pedersen
Weekday mornings, The Daily Punch brings you inside Capitol Hill, the White House, and Washington.
Listen NowWASHINGTON X THE WORLD
Foreign leaders blitzing the Hill this week
It’s a fairly regular occurrence for foreign leaders, diplomats and other top officials from allied governments to visit Capitol Hill and meet with congressional leaders.
Get ready for that on steroids.
The annual NATO summit kicks off today, bringing dozens of world leaders to Washington. The summit isn’t usually held in the United States, but this year is different in part because the alliance is celebrating its 75th anniversary.
This means the Capitol will play host to a ton of bilateral meetings beginning today. This includes a visit by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky later in the week.
Here’s just a sampling of who’ll be making the trek to the Hill.
Tuesday:
→ | Sens. Dick Durbin (D-Ill.) and Roger Wicker (R-Miss.) will host the speaker of Ukraine’s parliament, Ruslan Stefanchuk, at 2:15 p.m. |
→ | Speaker Mike Johnson will meet with Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis at 11:15 a.m. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer will also meet separately with Mitsotakis. |
→ | Sens. Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.) and Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) will host a group of Western Balkans leaders, including Albanian Prime Minister Edi Rama, North Macedonian Prime Minister Hristijan Mickoski and Montenegro’s Foreign Minister Filip Ivanović. This will take place at 2:00 p.m. |
→ | New Zealand’s Prime Minister Christopher Luxon will stop by the Senate Foreign Relations Committee in the morning. This will be followed by a meeting with the House Foreign Affairs Committee in the afternoon. |
→ | A bipartisan group of senators will meet with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. |
Wednesday:
→ | Zelensky will meet with Johnson one-on-one. He’ll also meet with a large bipartisan group of senators. |
→ | Johnson and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries will meet jointly with U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer, who’ll be just five days into his new job. |
→ | A bipartisan group of senators will host NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg as well as the leaders of Finland and Sweden, the newest NATO members. |
→ | German Chancellor Olaf Scholz — otherwise known as Sen. Chris Coons’ (D-Del.) doppelgänger — is also expected at the Capitol on Wednesday. |
— Andrew Desiderio
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THE MONEY GAME
Slotkin’s huge haul and Gonzales’ big quarter
News: Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.) raised $6.5 million in the second quarter of 2024 for her Senate campaign. Slotkin has $9.5 million on hand. Slotkin is likely to face former Rep. Mike Rogers (R-Mich.) in a blockbuster general election race.
News: Rep. Tony Gonzales (R-Texas) raised $1.7 million and has $1.3 million on hand. Gonzales just got through a bruising primary in Texas’ 23rd District against Brandon Herrera.
— Max Cohen
AND THERE’S MORE…
California watch: Republican Main Street Partnership is launching a $150,000 ad buy boosting Rep. Ken Calvert (R-Calif.) in his competitive election against Democrat Will Rollins. One spot tries to tie Rollins to California’s skyrocketing costs, while another ad praises Calvert for fighting inflation caused by President Joe Biden’s policies.
Both ads employ an economic message in a sign that Republicans are betting pocketbook issues will be top of mind for voters in the swing 41st District.
Michigan primary fight: Emily Busch, a Democrat running for the nomination in Michigan’s 10th District, is launching an effort to slam primary opponent Carl Marlinga as anti-abortion.
In a new ad, Busch discloses publicly for the first time that she received an abortion as a 19-year-old. “It will be the first time that many close to me hear it,” Busch says in the ad. “But I know that this is the right thing to do, because we need more leaders who understand what access to abortion care can mean to a person.”
Busch is seeking to unseat Rep. John James (R-Mich.), who narrowly beat Marlinga in 2022. Check out an accompanying new mailer here.
Book news: Emily Amick, former counsel to Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, Instagram influencer @EmilyInYourPhone and a friend of PBN, has published a new book with co-author Sami Sage. Democracy in Retrograde, which Emily describes as a “choose-your-own-adventure to getting involved in politics” is out today.
— Max Cohen and Heather Caygle
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Private equity is driving innovation that helps workers and their families
MOMENTS
ALL TIMES EASTERN
10 a.m.
President Joe Biden will get his daily intelligence briefing… Speaker Mike Johnson, House Majority Leader Steve Scalise, Majority Whip Tom Emmer, GOP Conference Chair Elise Stefanik and Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas) will hold a post-meeting news conference.
11:15 a.m.
Johnson will meet with Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis.
1 p.m.
Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre will brief.
1:30 p.m.
House Foreign Affairs Committee Chair Michael McCaul (R-Texas) and ranking member Gregory Meeks (D-N.Y.) will host New Zealand Prime Minister Christopher Luxon.
2 p.m.
House Democratic Caucus Chair Pete Aguilar and Vice Chair Ted Lieu will hold a post-meeting news conference.
3 p.m.
Johnson will meet with the president of the Czech Republic, Peter Pavl.
5 p.m.
Biden will deliver remarks on the 75th anniversary of NATO at the Andrew W. Mellon Auditorium. First Lady Jill Biden will attend.
7:30 p.m.
Biden will return to the White House.
CLIPS
NYT
“How Biden Is Leveraging His Defiance to Try to Stem Democratic Defections”
– Shane Goldmacher
NYT
“As NATO Convenes, Leaders Worry About a Hole in Its Center”
– David E. Sanger and Lara Jakes
WaPo
“Biden is seeing a different world than other Democrats”
– Matt Viser in Harrisburg, Pa.
Bloomberg
“Trump Says He Has Yet to Finalize Vice Presidential Pick”
– Hadriana Lowenkron
Bloomberg
“US, Allies Accuse China’s Spies of Directing Cyberattacks”
– Ben Westcott
AP
– Christine Fernando and Amelia Thomson-Deveaux
PRESENTED BY AMERICAN INVESTMENT COUNCIL
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Editorial photos provided by Getty Images. Political ads courtesy of AdImpact.
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