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Happy Friday morning. But is it really Friday if the Senate will be in session tomorrow?

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer got another giant step closer to his number one priority – passing a major reconciliation package that top Hill Democrats and President Joe Biden have been working on for the last 18 months. That goal could become a reality by next week.

Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.) agreed Thursday evening to “move forward” with the reconciliation proposal, aka the Inflation Reduction Act. This came after Schumer and other senior Senate Democrats said they’d strip out the carried-interest provision from the legislation. Remember – carried interest allows hedge fund and private equity managers to pay a lower rate on some of their income. It was a very small part of the revenue generated by this package, coming in at just $14 billion.

Somewhere – well, pretty much everywhere – fund managers are probably getting ready to cut checks to Sinema’s 2024 re-election bid.

Senate Democrats will also revise the corporate minimum tax structure outlined in the plan, hashed out by Schumer and Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.). This concession to Sinema will benefit manufacturers, who often use accelerated depreciation on equipment purchases. The National Association of Manufacturers and other trade groups had been complaining loudly about the potential impact of the Democrats’ proposal on U.S. companies. NAM President and CEO Jay Timmons said his organization was “glad to hear that accelerated depreciation provisions are removed, but we remain skeptical and will be reviewing the revised legislation carefully.”

A new 1% excise tax on stock buybacks will be added to the package instead. This will actually raise more revenue than the provisions getting dropped. Democrats have also agreed to support several billion dollars in drought funding sought by Sinema.

These changes were enough to secure Sinema’s support, a huge boost for Schumer and the White House. More on this in a minute.

Not everything in the package is settled. The centerpiece of the Democrats’ proposal – allowing Medicare to negotiate on prescription drug prices – is still undergoing revisions in order to comply with the Byrd Rule, the hyper-complex Senate procedure that controls reconciliation. There will be another meeting with the Senate parliamentarian on this issue today. Democrats are confident they can resolve any outstanding technicals problems.

Here’s Sinema on Thursday night’s deal:

Schumer said he believes that all 50 Senate Democrats are now going to back the bill:

And one more from Biden:

What it means. Needless to say, this is an enormous moment for Democrats, especially Schumer, who’s overseen this process from the beginning. Despite sometimes heavy criticism of the New York Democrat’s style, Schumer has led his senators to this point. In another few days – and a bunch of votes – Schumer could get his biggest win as Democratic leader.

For Biden, this is more good news. The president’s poll numbers are still bad. But despite his party’s thin margin of control, Biden and Democratic leaders in Congress have gotten a ton of bipartisan wins. They have passed an infrastructure bill, gun control, CHIPS Plus, the PACT Act for veterans and confirmed a Supreme Court justice. Passing this reconciliation package provides another boost to Democratic incumbents and counters some of the GOP attacks on inflation and the economy.

For Sinema, this may undercut some of the attacks from the left following the bitter controversies earlier this year over the filibuster and voting rights. Progressives will never love her, and Sinema’s insistence on removing the carried interest provision has reignited criticism.

Sinema, though, is voting with Schumer and Biden on the most important Democratic legislative proposal of this Congress. And she’s been in the middle of some of the biggest bipartisan deals as well, including the $1 trillion infrastructure package, a huge Biden win. Sinema has been there for Biden on many – although not all – nominees, including Ketanji Brown Jackson for the Supreme Court. Sinema was on the Senate floor Thursday whipping votes for Arizona lawyer Roopali Desai for a spot on the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals. Desai, who previously served as Sinema’s campaign attorney, is the first South Asian woman to serve on that panel.

Timing. The Senate isn’t in session today as the leadership gets ready to try to push the package across the finish line.

The Senate will come in at noon Saturday and vote at 12:30 p.m. on an unrelated procedural motion. At some point after that, the chamber will vote on the motion to proceed to the reconciliation bill.

Once the Senate formally takes up the reconciliation package, a 20-hour clock begins, with the time equally split between the two sides. We don’t anticipate that Democrats will take up much of their 10 hours, but Republicans will use some or all of their allotment.

We’d heard rumors that Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) would force the Senate’s clerk to read the entire 700-plus page bill out loud on the floor, as is allowed under the chamber’s rules. But Johnson told us this Thursday: “I’d hate to have the clerks read all that again.” It seems like that delay may be averted.

After the debate is done – presumably at some point late Saturday or more likely Sunday – the Senate will begin a vote-a-rama. Senators are allowed to offer unlimited amendments to the bill during this process. Some of these amendments may come from Democrats. Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) – no fan of this legislation – has said he will try to improve the bill on the floor with his own amendments. Sanders is still expected to support the package even if his amendments fail.

However, the vast majority of the hundreds of expected amendments will come from Republicans. Not all of these amendments will get a vote, but several dozen could. The three vote-a-ramas held during this Congress have averaged roughly 40 votes each.

If everything goes according to Schumer’s plan, the Senate can move to passage of the reconciliation bill at some point Monday or Tuesday.

Whenever the Senate finishes its work, the House will have to come into session and pass the reconciliation package. We expect the House to return to town mid-week to consider reconciliation and police funding bills.

→	One more thing: The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the July inflation data Wednesday at 8:30 a.m. The White House hopes to have the Inflation Reduction Act through the Senate and on the way to a House vote by then.

– Jake Sherman and John Bresnahan

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