The Archive

IN THIS EDITION

Johnson’s Jackson Hole adventure

Jeffries’ big money summer

The Vault: CPI and the Fed’s moment of truth

Takeaways from primary night in Wisconsin, Minnesota

House Democrats have had a rough few months on the health front

THE TOP

Johnson’s Jackson Hole adventure

Happy Wednesday morning.

There are 83 days until the 2024 election. And we’re going to zoom in a bit this morning on two key players in those elections — Speaker Mike Johnson and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries.

Both men are on the road this summer, helping their colleagues raise the massive piles of money needed for reelection. And with the shakeup at the top of the Democratic ticket, both are privately expressing confidence in their respective ability to win the House — and the White House — this fall.

We’ll talk about Johnson first and then dig into Jeffries.

Johnson. The speaker has been at the Four Seasons in Jackson Hole, Wyo., this week for the Team Johnson Jackson Hole Summit. This is a confab where big donors get to rub shoulders with both veteran GOP lawmakers and up-and-coming Republicans. Team Johnson and the Congressional Leadership Fund run the event, which boasts its fair share of billionaires.

The entire leadership is at the event in Wyoming except for House Republican Conference Chair Elise Stefanik, who is back home in her district.

A number of current Republican lawmakers are in attendance, including Reps. Andy Barr (Ky.) and French Hill (Ark.), both candidates for the top slot on the House Financial Services Committee; House Natural Resources Chair Bruce Westerman (Ark.); House Administration Committee Chair Bryan Steil (Wis.); and Reps. Troy Balderson (Ohio), Pat Fallon (Texas), Harriet Hageman (Wyo.), Diana Harshbarger (Tenn.), John James (Mich.) and Julia Letlow (La.).

Lower-level leadership members are also there. The list includes House Republican Conference Secretary Lisa McClain (Mich.), Conference Vice Chair Blake Moore (Utah) and House Republican Policy Committee Chair Gary Palmer (Ala.).

Sens. John Barrasso (R-Wyo.) and Bill Cassidy (R-La.) are at the retreat too.

Johnson has some of the party’s top candidates in attendance, a hint at who the leadership sees as major up-and-comers.

Among the candidates in Wyoming: Tom Barrett, who is vying for Rep. Elissa Slotkin’s (D-Mich.) open seat; Rob Bresnahan, who is running against Rep. Matt Cartwright (D-Pa.); Nancy Dahlstrom, who is running against Rep. Mary Peltola (D-Alaska); Gabe Evans, who is challenging Rep. Yadira Caraveo (D-Colo.); Derek Merrin, who is trying to oust longtime Ohio Democratic Rep. Marcy Kaptur; and Austin Theriault, who is running against Rep. Jared Golden (D-Maine).

RNC Chair Michael Whatley made the trip, as well.

During Monday night’s event, Ross Perot Jr. interviewed Johnson. Perot, the son of the legendary businessman, is a major Republican donor. The interview seemed like a biographical introduction of Johnson to the donor class, per several sources in attendance.

Johnson, however, will face some delicate legislative issues when members return to Washington next month.

The federal government runs out of money on Sept. 30. That means Johnson will have to squeeze a stopgap funding bill through the chamber just weeks before the election. This is what happens every election year, but how this one gets resolved will have as much to do with Johnson’s own future as the actual bill.

The House Freedom Caucus is demanding Johnson bring the House back to Washington now in order to pass all 12 spending bills. Remember, these are the same members who helped take down several of the FY2025 spending bills that the GOP leadership tried to move. So yeah.

As it has for months, the HFC is further demanding that Republicans attach the SAVE Act to the next government funding bill. The SAVE Act would require proof of citizenship in order to register to vote in a federal election. It’s already illegal for undocumented immigrants to cast a ballot.

The SAVE Act passed the House 221-198 in July, with five Democrats joining all Republicans in voting yes. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer has refused to take up the measure, and the White House is opposed as well.

The HFC is also trying to pressure Johnson against an end-of-year omnibus. They want government funding extended into 2025, with the hopes that former President Donald Trump will win and have a chance to put his imprint on spending.

But that would also put an early shutdown threat on the next president’s lap even while staffing up a new administration. This happened in 2017, if you’ll recall, which is why many senior Republicans are against this idea. Johnson can ignore the demands of his right flank here since Democrats will be needed for a continuing resolution anyway.

However, Johnson may need hardline conservatives in order to become speaker. A Trump victory will probably be necessary to save the endangered House GOP majority. Johnson would get a huge personal boost for that, and Trump can help with conservatives. Yet Johnson needs to be careful in how he handles them.

On the staffing front, Johnson has made another interesting hire for his operation. Hogan Gidley, deputy White House press secretary in the Trump administration, is consulting for Johnson’s official staff and his political operation. Gidley has never worked on Capitol Hill. He’s been hired basically to serve as a liaison to the Trump campaign.

– Jake Sherman, Melanie Zanona and John Bresnahan

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THE LEADER

Jeffries’ big money summer

This is House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries’ first election cycle as the top Democrat in his caucus. And he’s truly pounding the pavement, looking to capitalize on the shift in party fortunes to become the first Black speaker.

With President Joe Biden out of the race, House Democrats finally feel as if they have someone they can run with in Vice President Kamala Harris. And if you talk to House Democrats, the enthusiasm is high.

Jeffries has been all over the country, raising money and holding public events for members of the caucus.

There had been concern starting this cycle that the “New Three” of Jeffries, House Minority Whip Katherine Clark and Democratic Caucus Chair Pete Aguilar couldn’t match the “Big Three” of Reps. Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), Steny Hoyer (D-Md.) and Jim Clyburn (D-S.C.) in the never-ending chase for campaign cash. The loss of Pelosi’s fundraising prowess atop the caucus was seen as especially worrisome.

But the DCCC and House Majority PAC, the Democratic-leadership affiliated super PAC, have reported strong fundraising totals this cycle.

The DCCC had $87 million on hand as of July 19, as compared to the $70 million that the NRCC has in its coffers. Republicans crow that they are holding their own, based on the cash difference in past years. But numbers are numbers. And Jeffries has been behind a lot of this fundraising.

Jeffries has kept a breakneck schedule. Jeffries has traveled to well over 25 states since becoming Democratic leader.

Recently, Jeffries went to Silicon Valley for a fundraiser. He also visited Rep. Josh Harder (D-Calif.) for an event with faith leaders and a barbecue with 500 attendees.

Jeffries was on Long Island for a reception with Black church leaders to benefit Laura Gillen, who is challenging New York GOP Rep. Anthony D’Esposito.

The Democratic leader held a fundraiser in Detroit for Rep. Hillary Scholten (D-Mich.) and candidates Curtis Hertel and Kristen McDonald Rivet before speaking at a “Black Men for Kamala Harris” event.

Over the weekend, Jeffries was in Martha’s Vineyard with Clark.

Next up is the DNC in Chicago, a pivotal event for Harris and the Democratic Party leadership in the wake of Biden’s withdrawal announcement. Jeffries, of course, will be a star player in this event as the leader of the House Democratic Caucus.

Jeffries will then travel to Dallas for the DCCC, Las Vegas for an event with Reps. Steven Horsford (D-Nev.), Dina Titus (D-Nev.) and Susie Lee (D-Nev.) and Orange County, Calif., for an event with Derek Tran, who is running against Rep. Michelle Steel (R-Calif.).

This is a key few months for Jeffries, Clark and the entire House Democratic Caucus. With Harris as the Democratic nominee and Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as VP, House Democrats believe the odds of taking the House back in November have soared. Harris is tied with or beating former President Donald Trump in national and battleground state polls. Democratic fundraising is ramping up too.

Yet perhaps most importantly for Jeffries and House Democrats, Harris is helping them in states like California and New York. These deep blue states aren’t in play for the presidential race but they matter greatly for who will run the House. Harris may be especially valuable in the Golden State, which has a handful of big races to watch.

— Jake Sherman and John Bresnahan

The Vault: CPI and the Fed’s moment of truth

The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the latest data from a closely watched inflation gauge at 8:30 a.m. today. It’s another sensitive moment for the U.S. economy and policymakers, but initial indicators published this week suggest inflation continues to cool.

The latest Consumer Price Index data will give the Fed a broad look at the state of inflationary pressures across the economy as the central bank considers a rate cut next month. Economists expect a monthly rise in consumer prices of about 0.2% after they fell by 0.1% in July.

Markets got a boost on Tuesday after a separate but related index from BLS was released — the Producer Price Index, which tracks business and production costs. The PPI rose by just 0.1% in July, lower than expected and well within typical inflation readings. Annual PPI inflation came in at 2.2%, just barely above the Fed’s inflation target.

Markets surged on the news, even though a rate cut by September is hardly in doubt with other signs of cooling in the economy, including the once-teflon labor market.

So today’s CPI report will be crucial for the Fed and outside economists as the world grapples with this weird moment in the U.S. economy.

There are plenty of political winds to keep track of with this release, too. As we’ve written elsewhere, voter perceptions of the economy tend to revolve tightly around the prices they pay for staples — namely food and gas, whose prices tend to be the most volatile tracked by economists.

So even if overall prices are down – which seems likely – a spike in prices at the grocery store or gas pump may do more to inform voter perceptions than the number itself. This close to a general election, every number counts.

Speaking of the labor market: Keep an eye on unemployment claims. Whenever we start worrying about a recession, the weekly claims data published by the BLS starts to get a lot more scrutiny. Those figures will be published on Thursday morning.

Late next week, the Fed’s top officials will flock to Jackson Hole, Wyo., for its annual economics symposium. This week’s data will play a key role in those conversations and speeches.

– Brendan Pedersen

THE CAMPAIGN

Takeaways from primary night in Wisconsin, Minnesota

The results are in for several closely watched primaries in Minnesota and Wisconsin. Here are the top takeaways from Tuesday night.

Omar fends off challenger: Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-Minn.) handily won her primary against Don Samuels in a rematch from 2022. Last cycle, Omar narrowly beat Samuels, a former member of the Minneapolis City Council. This time around, Omar won by roughly 14 points taking more than 56% of the vote. Samuels hit Omar on her stance on the war in Gaza.

Omar’s victory in Minnesota’s 5th District is a huge win for progressives and the Squad, which lost two of its members — Reps. Cori Bush (D-Mo.) and Jamaal Bowman (D-N.Y.) — in heated primaries this year.

But unlike those contests — the most expensive House primaries in history — AIPAC didn’t play in Omar’s race. That said, Omar still raised a significant amount of money this cycle, bringing in nearly $6.8 million. As of now, Omar still has nearly $700,000 cash on hand.

Gallagher’s successor: The race to replace former moderate Rep. Mike Gallagher (R) in Wisconsin’s 8th District was all about former President Donald Trump. State Sen. André​​ Jacque, former state Sen. Roger Roth and Trump-backed political outsider Tony Wied all tried to out-MAGA each other by repeatedly emphasizing their ties to Trump. In the end, Wied came out victorious.

Trump endorsed Wied, former owner of the “Dino Stop” gas station chain, in April.

Cooke will take on DVO: Rebecca Cooke will face Rep. Derrick Van Orden (R-Wis.) in November.

The heated Democratic primary was mainly a contest between state Rep. Katrina Shankland and Cooke, a small business owner. Shankland was the favorite among progressives, while Cooke was backed by several Democratic Frontliners and members of the Blue Dog Coalition. Cooke beat Shankland by nearly nine points.

Democrats are determined to flip Wisconsin’s 3rd District, which leans Republican. Van Orden succeeded former Democratic Rep. Ron Kind, who retired in 2022.

Hovde cruises to general: As expected, multimillionaire business executive Eric Hovde cruised through his GOP primary and will take on Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.) in November.

Baldwin and Hovde have already been going after each other, so the race has been on for some time. Baldwin is taking her race seriously, even skipping part of the Democratic National Convention to go campaign next week.

There’s also going to be a lot of money poured into this contest. Hovde has been self-funding his campaign for the most part, loaning himself $8 million earlier this year. As of now, he’s got over $3 million cash on hand.

Baldwin also has impressive fundraising numbers. The incumbent has over $6.3 million cash on hand.

Lone Star State: Former Houston Mayor Sylvester Turner won the precinct chair election to replace the late Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee (D-Texas) on the November ballot. Turner had the support of Jackson Lee’s children.

Also: EMILYs List endorsed Washington State Sen. Emily Randall for the 6th District race. Retiring Rep. Derek Kilmer (D-Wash.) currently represents the safe Democratic seat. Randall would be the first queer Latina elected to Congress.

— Mica Soellner

THE DEM CAUCUS

House Democrats have had a rough few months on the health front

Despite suffering a minor stroke on Sunday, former House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer plans to attend the Democratic convention next week in Chicago.

Hoyer, 85, had a “mild ischemic stroke” on Sunday night, his office announced Tuesday afternoon. Hoyer — who served as House majority leader for eight years, among his other posts — “responded well to treatment.” Hoyer took part in a staff call on Tuesday and was joking with aides, sources said.

Yet the last few months have been difficult for the House Democratic Caucus, which has seen a number of its veteran lawmakers deal with serious health problems.

Reps. Donald Payne (D-N.J.) and Sheila Jackson Lee (D-Texas) died in April and July respectively following illnesses.

Rep. Bill Pascrell (D-N.J.) — who at 87 is the second oldest member of the House — remains hospitalized in New Jersey. This is the second time Pascrell has been in the hospital recently. We reported on Tuesday that House Democratic leaders and party officials in New Jersey are watching to see if Pascrell retires. The longtime House member has until Aug. 27 to remove his name from the ballot in order to be replaced by another Democrat. Pascrell’s office says he’s running for reelection in November.

Rep. Raúl Grijalva (D-Ariz.) has been absent from Capitol Hill since April as he undergoes treatment for lung cancer. Grijalva has completed his chemotherapy and radiation regimes and hopes to return to Washington soon.

Rep. John Garamendi (D-Calif.) announced last month that he was being treated for early-stage multiple myeloma, a form of blood cancer.

Rep. David Scott (D-Ga.) has long faced questions about his health, although he’s on pace to win another term in November.

And Rep. Jennifer Wexton (D-Va.) announced last year that she won’t be seeking reelection after being diagnosed with progressive supranuclear palsy, a rare brain disease. Wexton recently used an AI program of her own voice to make a speech on the House floor.

House Republicans have had their own health challenges, although perhaps not quite as pronounced as their Democratic counterparts.

Rep. Hal Rogers (R-Ky.), the “Dean of the House,” was hospitalized earlier this year after a car crash. But the 86-year-old former Appropriations Committee chair returned after a brief stint in rehab.

Rep. Kay Granger (R-Texas) gave up the gavel at the Appropriations Committee back in March, an extraordinary move during the middle of a Congress. The 81-year-old Texas Republican had slowed noticeably in recent years. Granger announced she wasn’t running for reelection last year.

— John Bresnahan

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