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IN THIS EDITION

House Dems see golden opportunity in California with Harris

The looming Senate committee shuffle

The Vault: Schumer embraces crypto at Harris town hall

Pence-affiliated think tank to hold tax briefings on the Hill

THE TOP

House Dems see golden opportunity in California with Harris

Happy Thursday morning.

Key Democrats feel their chances of retaking the House have significantly improved now that Vice President Kamala Harris is at the top of their presidential ticket. But that optimism is especially pronounced in her home state of California.

The path to the majority likely runs through the deep blue states of California and New York. Speaker Mike Johnson will make a multi-day swing through California next week, while House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries was recently in the state and has more stops planned over the August recess. Remember, with all vacancies filled, Democrats only need to flip a net of four seats to win control of the chamber.

The belief among senior Democrats is that Harris will help activate their base and boost fundraising, particularly in California districts where there are more young voters, women and voters of color. Think Los Angeles, Orange County, Palm Springs, San Diego, etc.

If Democrats get more turnout among those groups — whom they feared would stay home if President Joe Biden was the nominee — then they don’t need to win over as many white, male or non-college-educated voters.

“I have seen a dramatic increase in energy, enthusiasm, support in my district. Especially among the millennials and the Gen Zers,” Rep. Mike Levin (D-Calif.) told us. “California Democrats are thrilled to have a California Democrat on the ticket.”

Levin, who represents a coastal district north of San Diego, was one of the battleground Democrats who called on Biden to drop out of the race following his disastrous June 27 debate performance.

And with Harris already a known quantity in the Golden State, Democrats think it’ll be harder for Republicans to use her as a cudgel against their California candidates.

“They’re going to try and tie people to Kamala. That’s not as scary of a proposition in California, where folks are already familiar with her,” said a Democratic political consultant involved with several key California races. “There’s just a comfortability factor there across the board.”

Democrats say they have already seen signs of newfound enthusiasm on the ground. We’re told Democratic candidate Derek Tran, who is vying to unseat Rep. Michelle Steel (R-Calif.), is opening a second field office next week to help capture the buzz. It’s a district Biden won in 2020 and covers parts of Orange and Los Angeles counties.

Even some Republicans are concerned about Harris’ value in the state. One high-level GOP strategist is conducting a focus group this week to assess Harris’ impact on the seat represented by Rep. Ken Calvert (R-Calif.), whose sprawling district was redrawn after the 2020 census to include more wealthy and liberal areas in Palm Springs.

Calvert’s Democratic opponent, former federal prosecutor Will Rollins, is leaning into Harris and her ties to California, where she not only served as a senator but also the state’s attorney general.

“It’s a great parallel to have a fellow prosecutor at the top of the ticket,” said Rollins, who lost to Calvert last cycle. “That contrast against a convicted felon, and frankly my own opponent… is something that energizes people in our community.”

Still, that doesn’t mean Democrats are going to shift their campaign strategies to center around Harris. Notably, several California Democrats in battleground races have kept their distance from presidential politics, including Rep. Josh Harder (D-Calif.), who is planning to skip the party convention next week, and Rudy Salas, who is trying to topple Rep. David Valadao (R-Calif.) in the San Joaquin Valley.

The GOP view: Republicans believe it’s still too early to quantify Harris’ down-ballot impact in the state, noting she is still in a honeymoon phase and that the real work to define her has not yet begun.

But Republican strategists feel like they have plenty to work with when it comes to Harris’ positions on issues like crime, the economy and border security, particularly salient issues in California. They also don’t see evidence that holds a favorable image in every competitive California race.

Still, a big part of the GOP strategy, particularly in central California, will be tying Democratic candidates to the California Assembly in Sacramento, not litigating the top of the presidential ticket. Several Democratic candidates in competitive races have served in the state legislature, including Salas and Adam Gray, who is once again trying to knock off Rep. John Duarte (R-Calif.).

Also potentially working to the GOP’s advantage: a proposition on the ballot this November to increase the punishment for some drug and theft crimes.

“Kamala Harris is the embodiment of the far-left San Francisco liberal policies that broke California and turned off voters in swing districts,” ​​NRCC National Press Secretary Will Reinert said.

All in all, Republicans feel like the political environment has returned to where it was prior to the Biden debate fiasco. Ultimately, Republicans think these House races will come down to the candidates and believe they still have an edge there.

– Melanie Zanona

Time is ticking! Tomorrow is the last day to enter our Congressional Recess Giveaway. Enter here.

THE SENATE

The looming Senate committee shuffle

Senate committees are slated to undergo a significant reshuffling next year regardless of which party wins the majority.

A mix of retirements paired with potential losses by vulnerable incumbents could elevate a new crop of senators to powerful posts in the chamber.

We recently examined the committee landscape for House Democrats and Republicans, so we wanted to do the same for the Senate committees that’ll look different next year.

Foreign Relations: With Sen. Ben Cardin (D-Md.) retiring and Sen. Bob Menendez (D-N.J.) resigning this month after being convicted on corruption charges, Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.) is likely to be the top Democrat on the Foreign Relations Committee next year.

Shaheen, who also serves on the Armed Services Committee, has proven to be an influential voice on foreign policy, particularly when it comes to NATO. And her SFRC promotion would be historic. Shaheen would be the first woman to serve as chair or ranking member of the 200-plus-year-old panel, which President Joe Biden once chaired.

Sen. Jim Risch (R-Idaho), currently the ranking member, would once again become the panel’s chair if Republicans win the majority.

Banking: Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.) is currently the panel’s top Republican, but it’s possible that he could be serving in the executive branch if former President Donald Trump wins in November. That would make Sen. Mike Rounds (R-S.D.) the committee’s top Republican come next year.

On the Democratic side, Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) would obviously retain his position if he wins reelection in November. That, of course, is far from a sure bet. Next in line would be Sens. Jack Reed (D-R.I.) and Mark Warner (D-Va.), both of whom already chair high-profile committees they likely wouldn’t relinquish — Armed Services and Intelligence, respectively.

Move further down the list and you’ll see Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) — an intriguing prospect as chair or ranking member. Brown’s no industry darling, but Warren is uniquely feared by the banking sector.

Judiciary and Budget: We’re grouping these together because Sens. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) and Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) have traded the top GOP positions on these panels in the past. Graham is currently the Judiciary ranking member, while Grassley serves as the top Budget Committee Republican. They’ll both keep their spots as members on both panels.

Republicans we spoke with expect that if their party wins the majority, Graham would return to the top Budget job and the 90-year-old Grassley would reclaim the Judiciary gavel. If Trump wins in November, having a friendly Judiciary Committee chair will make it much easier for Trump’s judicial nominees to win Senate confirmation.

Environment and Public Works: The EPW Committee will lose its top Democrat when Sen. Tom Carper (D-Del.) retires in January. Sens. Sheldon Whitehouse (D-R.I.) and Jeff Merkley (D-Ore.) could be in the running for the spot, though Whitehouse currently chairs the Budget Committee. Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (R-W.Va.) is expected to remain the panel’s top Republican.

Veterans’ Affairs: If Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.) loses his reelection bid, Democrats will likely look to Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.) to take over.

Agriculture: With Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D-Mich.) retiring, the top Democratic spot would go to either Sens. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.) or Michael Bennet (D-Colo.). Klobuchar currently chairs the Rules Committee.

Appropriations: We fully expect Sens. Susan Collins (R-Maine) and Patty Murray (D-Wash.) to retain their positions atop the coveted panel. It’s possible that Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell could claim a subcommittee gavel once his tenure as GOP leader comes to an end.

For example, McConnell could head up the Defense or State-Foreign Operations panel, the latter of which he led for several years before rising through the leadership ranks. This would allow McConnell to continue to have influence over foreign policy and national security, a stated goal of his.

Energy: Sen. Joe Manchin (I-W.Va.) is retiring. The next three Democrats on the seniority list already chair other committees, so this job could go to Sen. Martin Heinrich (D-N.M.).

Heinrich is much more progressive than Manchin and has openly criticized the West Virginian in the past.

On the GOP side, Sen. John Barrasso (R-Wyo.) is running unopposed to be the GOP whip, which means he won’t have any committee leadership roles. The expectation is that Sen. Mike Lee (R-Utah) would take over for the Republican side.

— Andrew Desiderio

The Vault: Schumer embraces crypto at Harris town hall

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer gave a warm embrace to the crypto industry in a virtual town hall supporting Vice President Kamala Harris Wednesday night.

Schumer, addressing a “Crypto4Harris” virtual event, hailed the promise of digital assets to an extent we haven’t heard before.

Schumer’s words may be the friendliest we’ve ever heard from a Democrat as senior as Schumer. Harris has said nothing about the crypto industry since her campaign sprung into existence over the last few weeks.

“Why are we here today?” Schumer asked. “Because we all support Vice President Kamala Harris to be our next president, and we all believe in the future of crypto.”

Schumer was introduced by billionaire investor Mark Cuban, who Schumer said was a guy who “cares about things, and he calls me up about them all the time.”

Schumer also said he believed it was still possible Congress could pass meaningful crypto legislation before the end of the 118th Congress.

It’s worth taking some time to read Schumer’s fuller remarks. Here’s more of what the New York Democrat said:

Schumer said he believed Congress could “help crypto reach its full potential.” He added that lawmakers would need to “provide some guardrails to keep users of this technology safe, to preserve our national security and to ensure that this tech can’t be abused by criminal organizations.”

From any angle you look at it, Schumer’s remarks should be remembered as a significant moment for the crypto sector.

It’s one thing for Schumer to say the Senate should respond to crypto with legislation. But this kind of bear hug is something different.

The significance wasn’t lost on Rep. Wiley Nickel (D-N.C.), a pro-crypto Democrat who helped organize the town hall. “What we heard from Sen. Schumer was a big deal,” Nickel said during the event.

Other Democrats who spoke included Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (N.Y.), Colorado Gov. Jared Polis, Rep. Adam Schiff (Calif.) and Sen. Debbie Stabenow (Mich.). Stabenow, who chairs the Senate Agriculture Committee, dedicated part of her remarks to accusing some Senate Republicans of not “working in good faith” since bipartisan negotiations on her panel fell apart at the end of July.

This event was a remarkable testament to how the crypto sector has managed to flex its political power this cycle, pouring hundreds of millions of dollars into the 2024 campaign. The industry says that crypto voters could make a significant difference on the margins. We won’t know whether those folks are listening until November.

— Brendan Pedersen

TAX TALK

Pence-affiliated think tank to hold tax briefings on the Hill

Advancing American Freedom, the conservative think tank affiliated with former Vice President Mike Pence, will hold a series of tax briefings for Hill members and staff once Congress is back in session.

Marc Short, Pence’s former chief of staff, and Andy Koenig, former special assistant in the White House Office of Legislative Affairs, will conduct the briefings.

Here’s the schedule:

– Sept. 9: Tax Reform in 2017: Dreams, realities, permanence and expirations

– Sept. 30: Individual Taxes: Income, rates, brackets, SALT and refundable credits

– Oct. 7: Corporate Taxes: International Competition, small businesses, wages, jobs and growth

– Oct. 21: Crafting TCJA 2.0: Navigating reconciliation, factions, budgetary impacts and more.

All sessions will be held in the Cannon Building between 10-11 a.m. There will be coffee and donuts.

It seems unlikely that Pence’s think tank will have much influence if former President Donald Trump wins the White House. Pence has repeatedly refused to endorse Trump and there’s healthy scorn for Short, who also served as an aide in the House Republican leadership.

– Mica Soellner

… AND THERE’S MORE

Spotify has hired Keeley Law and Policy to lobby on music licensing issues. Matthew Keeley was the general counsel and chief IP counsel on the Senate Judiciary Committee.

News: The Congressional Hispanic Caucus BOLD PAC is launching a new fundraising committee, labeled Blue Victory Fund, aimed to boost the group’s efforts to flip the House and retain the Senate for Democrats.

BOLD PAC Chair Linda Sánchez (D-Calif.) said in a statement the “new effort will help BOLD PAC continue to be a pivotal force in the upcoming elections by rallying grassroots support and mobilizing voters.”

Lucas Kunce has a new ad up, ripping Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) for rejecting the bipartisan border security and immigration package. Missouri is quite red, but this is an interesting ad aimed at trying to paint Republicans as being responsible for killing the border deal.

The NRCC and Rob Bresnahan have a new ad up in Wilkes-Barre/Scranton, Pa., featuring a union worker who worked for Bresnahan. This is a pretty general ad about how Bresnahan was as a boss.

— Jake Sherman and Max Cohen

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