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IN THIS EDITION

Zooming in on the fight for the House

Biden defends record, attacks Trump as he passes torch to Harris

What we’re watching on primary day

The Canvass polling at the DNC

THE TOP

Zooming in on the fight for the House

Happy Tuesday morning.

CHICAGO – All eyes are on the Democrats’ convention this week, where Vice President Kamala Harris’ rapid ascension to the top of the ticket has led to an unprecedented shakeup in the national political climate.

During a highly anticipated speech on Monday night, an emotional President Joe Biden told a crowd of delegates and party faithful that he’d “given my heart and soul to our nation, and I’ve been blessed a million times in return.” More on that below.

But for now, let’s zoom in on the fight for control of the House next year. It’s a bit obvious and overly simplistic to just say that Harris’ soaring fortunes should help down-ballot Democrats. Of course.

Yet despite Harris’ newfound popularity, there are many reasons why Democrats romping to victory is far from a sure thing. Just think back to 2020 and 2022. Predictions by both parties during those cycles were way off.

Let’s temper expectations on another front too. Whichever party nabs power in November will have a modest majority. The number of House seats truly up for grabs is small.

Currently, House Republicans hold a slim four-seat majority. We’ve seen how that has gone. Speaker Mike Johnson’s dysfunctional House Republican Conference can barely keep the lights on.

Let’s talk about why the presidential race may have limited impact on the House.

1) The House map isn’t the same as the presidential map.

The battleground for the House lies largely outside of the states that will determine the next occupant of the White House. Undoubtedly, the increase in enthusiasm associated with Harris could boost Democrats in tight races.

But consider this: Of the 22 most competitive seats rated as “toss-ups” by the Cook Political Report with Amy Walter, only seven are in presidential swing states. So there’ll be big fights for competitive House seats in states where the presidential campaigns won’t spend a dime.

“Our majority lives and dies in blue states,” said Dan Conston, president of the Congressional Leadership Fund, the House GOP-leadership affiliated super PAC. “The environment is just a couple ticks better for Republicans in those swing districts than it is elsewhere. That has been a consistent phenomena for six years, and it very much exists the same way today.”

Deep-blue states like New York and California have a plethora of competitive seats. Plus, there will be close House races in Ohio, Maine, Colorado, Washington State and Alaska — none of which will benefit in a major way from presidential race spending. Harris and former President Donald Trump won’t spend much time there between now and Election Day.

“The presidential race is not going to be fought in those states,” DCCC Chair Suzan DelBene said in Chicago Monday. “This is also a place where House infrastructure is important and House investments are important because these are states where the competitive races are House races.”

2) The money angle.

Let’s be blunt here. Democrats are absolutely walloping Republicans in the fundraising game. The DCCC has $17 million more in the bank than the NRCC as of June 30. Vulnerable Democrats are far ahead of their GOP challengers.

DelBene dug deeper during a roundtable with reporters Monday. A stunning 97% of Frontliners outraised their Republican opponents last quarter, she said. And vulnerable Democratic incumbents have an average of five times as much cash in the bank.

It’s a massive advantage for candidates to have big piles of cash because they can buy TV time far cheaper than campaign committees.

Just on Monday, the DCCC Independent Expenditure program announced another $27 million in ad reservations, which comes on top of the $28 million announced in June. Of the new ad reservations, $8 million is going to New York and another $5 million to California.

But when you take into account the super PACs, the picture gets fuzzier. As of July 15, CLF had $110 million on hand. House Majority PAC, the Democratic super PAC, had $88 million.

In short, while Democratic candidates and the DCCC have far more money than their GOP opponents, the Republican super PAC is outpacing the Democrats’ equivalent group.

3) It’s only August.

Things look good for Democrats now. There’s no disputing that. Yet think back to just one month ago.

Trump had just survived an assassination attempt. The images of the bloodied former president pumping his fist in the air led many political prognosticators to believe there was no way he would lose in November. Republicans gathered for the RNC in Milwaukee confident of gains in the House and Senate.

Then Biden dropped out following his disastrous debate performance and everything changed. It’s a lesson that the political climate could — and likely will — shift again between now and Nov. 5.

There will be at least one Harris-Trump debate. There could be an escalation in the ongoing war in the Middle East. Any post-DNC bump for Democrats may fade. No one knows what developments lie in store between now and Election Day.

4) Republicans are more trusted on key issues.

Recent polling has shown the GOP with an edge when voters are asked what party they trust to handle the overall economy, immigration and inflation, the top issues this year.

Of course, Democrats retain the edge on abortion rights. Expect that message to be repeated over and over again in competitive House seats.

— Max Cohen, Jake Sherman, John Bresnahan and Melanie Zanona

Tune into Punchbowl News HQ at the DNC in Chicago on Aug. 21! We’ll be hosting a half-day of live programming featuring Rep. Lizzie Fletcher (D-Texas), Sen. John Hickenlooper (D-Colo.), and top industry experts. Don’t miss out on insights and discussions, plus an exclusive look at our live polling results from convention attendees. Catch all the action live on Punchbowl News’ X!

INSIDE THE DNC

Biden defends record, attacks Trump as he passes torch to Harris

CHICAGO — The words flashing on the large screens behind President Joe Biden at the conclusion of his speech Monday night were instructive: “Thank you, Joe.”

Yes, Democrats wanted to express their gratitude for Biden’s five-decade-long career, especially his nearly four years as president. But it could’ve also served as a “Thank you” for his decision to step aside as the party’s nominee and pass the torch to Vice President Kamala Harris.

This is what Senate and House Democrats wanted ever since Biden’s disastrous June 27 debate performance. They were certain that Biden would not only lose to Trump, but he’d bring the party down with him.

Yet even though Biden didn’t address the matter directly during his remarks at the party’s convention, the drama surrounding that chaotic period in Democratic politics was still playing out on Monday in the hours before the president spoke.

Former Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s role in pushing for Biden to step aside has very much roiled Biden’s inner circle. Appearing on CNN, Biden’s longtime adviser Anita Dunn declined to comment on the Pelosi beef, saying “Nobody wants to have a fight with Nancy Pelosi at this time.”

Pelosi was on CNN later in the day and was asked about Dunn’s comments. Pelosi said simply, “That’s their problem — not mine.” The California Democrat added that if some people are upset about the situation, “I’m sorry for them, but the country is very happy.”

“Sometimes you just have to take a punch for the children,” Pelosi said, employing a favorite line from her new book, “The Art of Power.”

After his big speech, Biden told reporters he hadn’t spoken to Pelosi. “No one made the decision but me,” Biden said. “No one knew it was coming.”

When asked whether he would have defeated Trump again, Biden added: “You always think you could’ve won.”

Then the president left Chicago for vacation in California.

The speech: Biden made no overt reference to his decision to abandon his reelection bid, but there were certainly some undertones. At one point, Biden lamented that he went from being “too young” to serve in the Senate to “too old to stay as president.” Biden later joked that he knows so many foreign leaders by first name “because I’m so damn old.”

Speaking well past midnight on the East Coast, Biden vigorously defended his record and legislative achievements as president and attacked Trump in what could largely have been considered a reelection pitch for himself.

Biden mentioned much of what he would talk about when he was still running — infrastructure, NATO, the $35 insulin cap, the CHIPS and Science Act and more. Biden opened by touching on democracy and the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol, as well as some familiar lines about how the antisemitic Charlottesville riots made him want to run in 2020.

To be sure, Biden did make an effort to boost Harris even as he was touting his record as president. When the crowd chanted “Thank you, Joe,” Biden responded with, “Thank you, Kamala, too.”

Biden eventually pivoted to what “Kamala and Tim” will do over the next four years, referring to Harris and her running mate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz. Biden pledged to be the “best volunteer” for the Harris-Walz campaign over the next 77 days.

“America, I gave my best to you,” Biden said, in what will likely be one of the most memorable lines from the address. “For 50 years, I have given my heart and soul to our nation.”

Happening today: House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries and Pelosi will both appear on “The Late Show with Stephen Colbert.” They’ll appear separately.

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer is speaking during the prime time convention programming in the 9 p.m. EST hour. This morning, Schumer will headline the New York state breakfast and hold a media availability.

Schumer is also attending a Tech:NYC event as well as gatherings for the DSCC, unions and climate groups.

— Andrew Desiderio

PRIMARY WATCH

What we’re watching on primary day

Away from Chicago, it’s primary day in Florida, Wyoming and Alaska. Here’s what we’re watching:

Will Gaetz end the McCarthy revenge tour?

Allies of former Speaker Kevin McCarthy have dumped millions of dollars into an effort to unseat Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.). The bad blood between the two Republicans runs deep. Gaetz was the ringleader of the motion to vacate effort that deposed McCarthy last year.

Gaetz has rallied with far-right allies like Reps. Eli Crane (R-Ariz.), Lauren Boebert (R-Colo.) and Tim Burchett (R-Tenn.) in the race’s final stretch. Gaetz, now in his fourth term, is the heavy favorite to win his primary over retired Navy officer Aaron Dimmock. So much for revenge.

Who will succeed retiring Bill Posey?

Republicans in Florida’s 8th District have coalesced around former state Senate President Mike Haridopolos to replace retiring Rep. Bill Posey (R-Fla.). Both former President Donald Trump and Posey have backed Haridopolos in the GOP primary for this solid red seat.

How will Mucarsel-Powell fare in the Democratic primary?

Former Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D-Fla.) is the massive favorite to take on Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.) in November. DMP has raised eye-popping sums in recent weeks and garnered major statewide endorsements. Entrepreneur Stanley Campbell, who won the major labor endorsement of the Florida AFL-CIO, is seeking to pull off an upset in the Democratic primary.

Which Republican will gain momentum in the race to topple Peltola?

Alaska Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola is one of the most vulnerable incumbents in the House. Tuesday is the open primary for Alaska’s House seat, where the top four vote-getters, regardless of party, will advance to the general. Peltola’s main GOP opponents this year are Nick Begich, who Peltola beat in 2022, and Lt. Gov. Nancy Dahlstrom, who’s backed by the GOP establishment. Republicans are very high on Dahlstrom’s chances, and it’ll be instructive to see how she performs in the primary.

— Max Cohen

The Canvass polling at the DNC

We’ll be taking our popular survey, The Canvass, to Chicago this week just like we did at the GOP convention last month. While at the DNC, we’ll conduct nightly rapid polling of the most influential people from Capitol Hill and K Street who are following the DNC speeches and events.

The survey will offer immediate insights on key moments from the convention from the people closest to the biggest decision-makers. Look out for the polling results in our newsletters this week.

In the meantime, take a look at our polling from the RNC where nearly 80% of respondents said Sen. JD Vance (R-Ohio) was not Republican nominee Donald Trump’s best VP pick.

– Elvina Nawaguna

THE CAMPAIGN

McCarthy on the road: Former Speaker Kevin McCarthy is on the road raising money for GOP incumbents and candidates, despite being out of office for nearly eight months (see above on the “McCarthy Revenge Tour” not working out).

In just the last week, McCarthy did events for Reps. Laurel Lee (R-Fla.), Ken Calvert (R-Calif.) and Lori Chavez-DeRemer (R-Ore.).

McCarthy will head to Michigan to do events for GOP candidates Tom Barrett and Paul Junge in the open 7th and 8th Districts respectively. That will be followed by a stop in Virginia for GOP Rep. Jen Kiggans, and then it’s on to Maine for an appearance with Austin Theriault, who is challenging Democratic Rep. Jared Golden in the swing 2nd District.

McCarthy also did an event with Rep. Don Bacon (R-Neb.) recently.

“I’m working to keep our majority and expand it,” McCarthy said in an interview on Monday.

On the air. We have two new ads for you today — first in Punchbowl News — in a couple of competitive House races.

First up, Democrat Missy Cotter Smasal is up on the air in Virginia’s 2nd District with an ad that slams the Republican incumbent Kiggans as an “anti-choice” politician who is buddies with Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.).

In Connecticut’s 5th District, Republican George Logan is running a new spot in his rematch against Rep. Jahana Hayes (D-Conn.). Logan says compromise shouldn’t be a dirty word in Washington and promises to work to “protect Social Security and Medicare” if elected.

– John Bresnahan and Max Cohen

MOMENTS

CLIPS