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IN THIS EDITION

NEW: McConnell pushes back on Dems and Trump

Choose your adventure: Schumer, McConnell talk Senate map

What to expect from the assassination task force

One HFC member survives, but its leader goes down

THE TOP

NEW: McConnell pushes back on Dems and Trump

Happy Friday morning.

Evan Gershkovich, Paul Whelan and Alsu Kurmasheva are on U.S. soil after a historic, multi-country prisoner swap. Vladimir Kara-Murza, also released, was flying to Germany. There has been some tremendous journalism detailing the ordeal, especially from the Wall Street Journal.

What’s on McConnell’s mind. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell was booed at the GOP convention last month. The Kentucky Republican’s party has moved away from him on so many core issues, most notably foreign policy. McConnell’s critics have referred to him as a “lame duck” leader, suggesting he should hang it up early.

But as McConnell transitions out of the top Republican post he’s held for a record-breaking 18 years, the minority leader is sending a clear signal that he’ll remain engaged and defiant. Not only on halting his party’s rightward drift, but also by reminding everyone that he’s the guy who almost single-handedly cemented the Supreme Court’s conservative majority.

In an exclusive interview with us this week, McConnell jabbed at both former President Donald Trump and the left, while haranguing President Joe Biden’s Supreme Court reform proposal as an effort to undermine the high court itself.

“That’s what some people were trying to do Jan. 6 — to break the system of handing an administration from one to the next,” McConnell told us. “We can have our arguments, but we ought to not try to break the rules.”

Yes, that’s McConnell comparing Biden’s SCOTUS pitch to the violent attack on the Capitol on Jan. 6 to stop the certification of Biden’s victory. And it shows exactly why McConnell has been such a maddening figure to Democrats over the years.

McConnell’s longtime Democratic detractors believe that while he should be commended for his role in getting Ukraine aid packages over the finish line, the Kentucky Republican largely enabled Trump and didn’t do nearly enough to push back on the former president.

Yet McConnell is a political animal at heart. He wants Republicans to win up and down the ballot. That’s why he’s supporting the GOP ticket of Trump and Sen. JD Vance (R-Ohio), even though McConnell has long despised Vance’s worldview and believes Trump is culpable for Jan. 6.

“It’s not my job to tell the president who he ought to run,” McConnell said when asked if he’s dismayed at the selection of the Ohio Republican as the VP nominee. “With regard to Sen. Vance… yeah, we have a different point of view.”

It’s also worth pointing out that, despite McConnell’s efforts to root out what he calls an “isolationist” wing taking over the GOP, Trump isn’t changing his behavior. Just two days after McConnell pleaded with his fellow Republicans to stop idolizing Hungarian strongman Viktor Orbán, Trump hosted Orbán at Mar-a-Lago. A few days after that, Trump chose Vance to be his running mate.

Without directly criticizing Vance or Trump, McConnell said the foreign policy doctrine Vance and others in his party believe in is “nonsense,” adding: “I mean, even the slogans are what they were in the 30s — ‘America First.’”

It’s classic McConnell, twisting the knife in his own unique style. Even in criticizing Democrats over the Supreme Court, too, he pokes his own party — referring here to the fact that Republicans have lost several winnable Senate races in recent cycles. (We have more on McConnell’s outlook on the Senate map below.)

“The way you win the argument is to get more people elected,” McConnell said. “And [Democrats] have done a better job of that over the years than we have.”

Passing the torch: In the run-up to the GOP leadership elections in late November, McConnell is doing everything he can to preserve the power of the top Senate Republican.

Each of the candidates to succeed him is putting forward proposals that, to varying degrees, would restrict the power of the leader and empower the rank-and-file. Some have endorsed the idea of term limits for the top job.

In closed-door GOP Conference meetings recently, McConnell has made clear he thinks all of this is dangerous, noting that individual senators already have a lot of power because the chamber operates on unanimous consent.

“I don’t think this job is broken and needs fixing,” McConnell told us. “If the conference were to decide to strengthen the position further, I think that would be good, but it certainly doesn’t need to be weakened.”

Some Republican senators we’ve spoken with are surprised that McConnell is beating this drum as often and as loudly as he has.

Here’s McConnell’s response:

McConnell, though, isn’t planning on endorsing a successor.

— Andrew Desiderio

Choose your adventure: Schumer, McConnell talk Senate map

In our interviews with the top two Senate leaders this week, November was on both their minds as the chamber prepared to break for the August recess.

With Republicans widely favored to win back control of the chamber, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell understandably feels good about his party’s chances. But Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer says he’s still confident about some outside pickup opportunities.

Here are our top takeaways:

Texas and Florida: Schumer told us this week he thinks Democrats will pick up seats in 2024. In this unlikely scenario, Democrats would have to defeat either Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.) or Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas).

“Go look at the numbers in Texas and Florida and see how close they are,” Schumer said. RealClearPolitics has Cruz up over Rep. Colin Allred (D-Texas) by an average of eight points, while Scott leads former Democratic Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell by an average of five points.

Schumer described Allred as a “great candidate.” He acknowledged Florida is a harder state to win in this cycle but added, “Don’t discount the abortion issue.” Voters in the Sunshine State will vote on a referendum guaranteeing the right to an abortion up until 24 weeks of pregnancy. Right now, Florida bans abortions starting at six weeks, before many women even know they’re pregnant.

McConnell, naturally, was dismissive of Schumer’s claim.

“I mean, Chuck is playing with the hand he’s dealt. I don’t think they’ve got a shot at any of our incumbents,” McConnell said. “And that’s not just me. Ask any political consultant around town.”

Lessons from 2022: Both McConnell and Schumer are taking lessons learned from the midterms into the fall.

For Schumer, the Democratic overperformance last cycle — when the party defended all its vulnerable incumbents and flipped Pennsylvania blue — gives him the confidence to tune out political prognosticators this time around.

“Two years ago, everyone said, ‘You’re going to lose four or five seats.’ I said, ‘No we’re not, I know what’s going on in those states. We’ll keep the Senate and maybe even gain a seat,’” Schumer recounted. “Now they’re saying, ‘Oh you’re gonna lose four or five seats.’”

In McConnell’s mind, the GOP failures of 2022 were all about candidate quality. The long-serving Republican leader believes this year’s recruiting class is far stronger.

Here’s McConnell slamming 2022 Republican Senate candidates Blake Masters, Herschel Walker and Don Bolduc:

“I think our candidates in Arizona and Georgia and New Hampshire were just simply unappealing to states that were truly competitive,” McConnell said. “And if you don’t have a good candidate, you can spend all your money and still lose.”

GOP pickup opportunities: McConnell noted Republicans enjoy a favorable map this cycle. In West Virginia, McConnell predicted, “We’re going to win” following the retirement of Sen. Joe Manchin (I-W.Va.).

And McConnell hailed “fabulous candidates” in Montana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Maryland and Nevada.

Notably missing: Any mention of Kari Lake in Arizona, Eric Hovde in Wisconsin or Mike Rogers in Michigan.

Harris effect: McConnell batted away Democratic optimism that Vice President Kamala Harris will have any significant 2024 down-ballot impact, adding he thinks former President Donald Trump will boost Republican candidates in states they’re targeting.

“I think in the states that we’re focusing on, I can’t imagine our candidate not winning a substantial majority,” McConnell said, singling out Montana and Ohio. “Except for places like Pennsylvania, where it’s likely to be very close.”

More from McConnell:

— Max Cohen

INVESTIGATION NATION

What to expect from the assassination task force

Now that the House established a bipartisan task force to investigate the attempted assassination of former President Donald Trump, we thought it would be a good time to check in with the top Republican and Democrat on the panel to hear their vision for the high-profile probe.

This investigation has become a top priority in the House, particularly among Republicans. But lawmakers on both sides of the aisle are eager to dig into the security failures and provide a full accounting of what went so horribly wrong in Butler, Pa., last month. One person was killed in the shooting, as was the shooter. A bullet grazed Trump’s ear, nearly killing the former president.

The task force, made up of seven Republicans and six Democrats, has yet to meet as a group. But the panel’s chair, Rep. Mike Kelly (R-Pa.), has checked in with most of the members by phone as he plots a busy few months ahead, even over the August recess. He also spent time with Trump at his indoor Pennsylvania rally this week.

Aside from staffing up and getting other logistical details sorted out — such as office space and budget — Kelly said he wants to schedule a visit to Butler to view the rally site. Kelly represents the district.

“Going there and visiting the site is important, so that they can understand geographically, where was this roof? What about the water tower? What about the surrounding perimeter?” Kelly said.

A lot of the panel’s work will take place behind the scenes as members interview witnesses and seek key documents. The task force has subpoena power, and Kelly said he won’t be afraid to use it.

But Kelly also anticipates holding some public hearings. He wants to be transparent throughout the process and reveal key information as the panel gets it. A final report with potential legislative recommendations is due no later than Dec. 13.

“It’s going to be a short but very intense effort because of the mid-December deadline,” Rep. Jason Crow (D-Colo.), the top Democrat on the panel, told us. “There’s going to be a lot of travel and time away for members with campaigning, so logistics will be challenging to make sure we finish by Dec. 13.”

Another hurdle they will have to overcome is the raft of conspiracy theories, on both the left and the right, about who was behind the assassination attempt. Officials have testified that the gunman acted alone. But Kelly hopes their final product will instill confidence in the public about what happened:

Kelly stressed repeatedly that task force members are decidedly not interested in seeking the limelight or fundraising off their work. Some House Republicans have griped about not being chosen for the commission.

“Nobody on here’s going to be running in front of a TV,” Kelly said.

Crow echoed a similar sentiment, saying they want to “avoid the political theater of past investigations.” When asked whether it was an issue to have Rep. Clay Higgins (R-La.), a controversial member who’s pushed Jan. 6 conspiracy theories, serving on the task force, Crow declined to weigh in.

“Leadership has selected who they think is right,” Crow said. “We’re going to do everything possible to work with them.”

One other interesting thing that stuck out to us: Kelly said he raised concerns about the venue choice to the Trump campaign prior to the rally but was largely dismissed. Kelly was particularly worried about the traffic influx and didn’t think local enforcement was incorporated enough in the planning process.

“I didn’t think that venue was the right one, and I was concerned about that from Day One,” Kelly told us.

The security preparations for the event, as well as the communication — or lack thereof — between local law enforcement and the Secret Service, will be some of the key investigative areas for the panel.

— Melanie Zanona and Max Cohen

PRIMARY WATCH

One HFC member survives, but its leader goes down

Rep. Andy Ogles (R-Tenn.), a House Freedom Caucus hardliner, beat back a competitive primary challenge from a well-funded local pol in the 5th District race.

Ogles bested Courtney Johnston, a Nashville council member, 56.5%-43.5%.

Ogles has come under fire for lying about a host of biographical details and misstating a loan on his financial disclosures. Johnston outraised Ogles, who was first elected in 2022.

But it wasn’t all good news for the House Freedom Caucus Thursday night. Chair Bob Good (R-Va.) lost his recount of the Virginia primary to state Rep. John McGuire, a Donald Trump-backed Navy Seal. Good was defeated by just 370 votes.

Good made some powerful enemies inside the GOP after voting to oust former Speaker Kevin McCarthy and initially endorsing Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis over Trump. Both McCarthy and Trump rallied against Good in the primary.

Good’s ouster is a big blow to the Freedom Caucus, which has struggled with its direction in recent years. Good has vowed to step down as leader if he lost his recount, as we first reported. And Ogles is one of the lawmakers interested in replacing him.

— Melanie Zanona and Jake Sherman

AD WATCH

Democrats are leaning into abortion rights in their messaging battle for one of the most competitive House districts in the country.

Democrat Ashley Ehasz’s first ad in her rematch against Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Pa.) slams Fitzpatrick’s stances on abortion while playing up the challenger’s military experience.

Ehasz, a retired Army helicopter pilot, links Fitzpatrick to former President Donald Trump when discussing the overturning of Roe v. Wade.

“I will not be made a second-class citizen in the very country I risked my life to defend,” Ehasz says. “Brian may not have seen combat, but he sure does a great job taking marching orders.”

President Joe Biden won Pennsylvania’s 1st District in 2020, but Fitzpatrick has consistently won reelection in the suburban Philadelphia seat. Ehasz lost to Fitzpatrick by 10 points last cycle.

— Max Cohen

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