The Archive

IN THIS EDITION

Our RNC and DNC vibe check

A survival guide to the DNC

Fake problems, and real problems, with job numbers

Why the McCarthy revenge tour flopped

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Our RNC and DNC vibe check

Welcome to The Readback, our weekend digest featuring the best of Punchbowl News this week – a quick roundup of all our scoops, analysis and Capitol Hill insight you won’t find anywhere else. We’ve also included a few of our favorite outside reads from the week.

Now Andrew, with the on-the-ground dispatch…

CHICAGO — Early mornings. Late nights. Political die-hards. Events all day, main-stage programming at night, afterparties that last into the wee hours of the morning. The “post-convention bump.”

On paper, the Democratic and Republican conventions are pretty much the same — an exhausting weeklong affair meant to please partisans and junkies, and an opportunity to pivot to the general election. The only difference between the two conventions is the content.

But this year’s GOP and Democratic conventions were each historic — and for very different reasons. I had the opportunity to attend and cover both, eight years after my first one. And it’s safe to say that both parties’ conventions played out in ways that could’ve never been anticipated even two months ago.

In July, former President Donald Trump had just been shot by a would-be assassin whose bullet was millimeters away from being fatal. Republicans converged on Milwaukee two days later for their convention, and the assassination attempt was a major theme. Trump seized on the unusual unity his party was experiencing, but he ultimately couldn’t help himself and the conciliatory tone didn’t last very long.

And this week in Chicago featured President Joe Biden, who just weeks ago bowed to Democratic pressure to end his bid for a second term, passing the torch to his vice president. Convention organizers had less than a month to adapt to the change at the top of the ticket.

Vice President Kamala Harris shattered fundraising records after Biden stepped aside, and Harris has been surging in the polls. Her nomination was historic on its own, too, as Harris became the first woman of color to be nominated by a major party.

So it’s safe to say that these were not normal conventions. Though I think we really need to change our definition of “normal,” given what we’ve seen in the last decade or so in American politics.

Dems’ “special guest” drama: OK, I know you were all probably really intrigued and filled with suspense about the supposed “special guest” on the final night of the Democratic convention.

The entire arena was buzzing about who it could possibly be in the hours leading up to the prime-time program. Delegates and other attendees were walking up to journalists — present company included — to ask us if we knew who it was. Would it be Beyoncé? Rihanna? Taylor Swift? A mystery Republican?

Then, TMZ reported it would be Beyoncé. That ended up being incorrect. At one point, San Francisco-based reporters were teasing that it would be someone whom Bay Area residents would be psyched about. They were referring to Golden State Warriors star Steph Curry, who recorded a video that was played at the convention.

My theory? Convention staffers started the rumor just to gin up extra interest and attention on the prime-time program. Which, honestly, good job guys!

And, it makes perfect sense that they wouldn’t bring out a big-name celebrity unannounced on the same night that Harris is giving her big speech. The final night is all about the nominee, so why would they do anything to steal her thunder?

On a final note, one thing I did enjoy in both Chicago and Milwaukee was the weather. Not too hot, very low humidity and a cool breeze throughout the day and night. If only D.C. could be more like this.

What I’m reading: The Philadelphia Eagles are all in, baby.

— Andrew Desiderio

You can find The Readback in your inbox every Saturday at 8 a.m. And don’t hesitate to reach out to readback@punchbowl.news with feedback. Enjoy The Readback.

A survival guide to the DNC

I officially survived my first convention. And I have thoughts. Lots of thoughts.

First off, thanks to all the Democratic staffers who let me hang out with you all week. You know who you are. Second, the Wi-Fi situation at the United Center and pretty much the entire city of Chicago, is terrible. Third, the weather was perfect and the vibes were immaculate.

But, on to the real stuff.

On Thursday, Vice President Kamala Harris delivered the most important speech of her career so far. Just a few weeks atop the Democratic ticket, Harris had to both lay out her vision for the future of the Democratic Party and woo uncommitted moderate voters. Harris spent the majority of her speech trying to draw a clear contrast with former President Donald Trump.

The ads and promotional footage leading up to the speech tried to hit on electoral pain points for Democrats by painting Harris as tough on crime and the border. They also highlighted Harris’ upbringing as a child of immigrants and barrier breaker. She is the first woman of color to become the presidential nominee for a major political party.

The celebrity appearances — we’re looking at you, Oprah — were plentiful and the entertainment was fun. Everyone was disappointed there was no Beyoncé appearance, though, despite the rumors and false TMZ reporting.

Most nights ran over schedule with dozens and dozens of speakers, but there are some speeches that stood out to me over others. Here are a few of the most notable speakers in my book:

Still, I’m doubtful that the anti-Trump Republicans who spoke at the convention will have much sway with voters, even frustrated ones.

When I asked House Democratic Caucus Chair Pete Aguilar about this, he had a different opinion. Aguilar said speakers like Kinzinger could sway some Republican voters who have been put off by Trump.

“You hope it matters,” Aguilar told us. “This is a guy who ran as a Republican who is saying, ‘I can’t do this. You shouldn’t either.’”

I will also give a shout out to freshman Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-Texas) and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.).

Crockett was well received by Democrats I talked to and made a strong introduction on the national stage. AOC’s presence at the DNC shows her rise in the party in just a few years, moving from a progressive agitator to a central voice for Democrats.

But of course, while it’s easy to tout the momentum for Harris in a room full of Democrats, the real test will be the next few months to November.

What I’m listening to: The Chicago soundtrack of the week was a lot of Beyoncé’s Lemonade album. It’s fine. We’ll never be over it.

— Mica Soellner

Fake problems, and real problems, with job numbers

It was a weird and high-profile week for the Bureau of Labor Statistics. It’s worth taking a step back and sorting the real controversy from the fake.

On Wednesday, the BLS — a federal agency that regularly issues critical economic data like the unemployment rate and Consumer Price Index — published a pre-scheduled revision of its jobs data over the prior 12 months.

This update usually comes and goes without much fuss, and the BLS has a good explainer of the process. But when there’s a lot of attention on the dynamics of the labor market, these revisions can carry more significance than normal. The size of this week’s revision added to the hype.

The stakes: A hard or soft landing for the United States hinges on whether the Federal Reserve can slow the economy enough to kill inflation without spiking unemployment. The unemployment rate has played along for much of the past year, hovering right around 4%.

But that number has crept up more quickly in recent months, fueling concerns that a hard landing may be more likely than policymakers expected.

Headline risk: The BLS revision concluded that the economy had added 818,000 fewer jobs than previously reported over the past year. That’s the biggest revision since 2009, and it prompted some screaming headlines.

Economists and investors didn’t hit the panic button, arguing that the numbers don’t radically reshape how we should view the economy. Others — including former President Donald Trump — wasted no time accusing the government of a conspiracy. The genius plot of this “cover-up,” as best as I can tell, would involve temporarily boosting job gains only to have them disappear barely two months before a general election. This is not a serious argument.

But there was real controversy involving the BLS this week that I don’t think you should gloss over. The revision, scheduled for 10 a.m. on Wednesday, wasn’t published online until closer to 10:30 a.m. Somehow, someway, a handful of financial firms obtained the data before the rest of the public.

This isn’t the first time this year the BLS has faced significant questions about its data publication process. In February, a BLS economist sent sensitive information about its housing inflation methodology to just a handful of economy watchers, including some hedge funds, prompting a brief trading frenzy.

The bureau also published May’s Consumer Price Index data 30 minutes early, a strange hiccup that ushered in more questions about how and where the BLS distributes its crucial statistics.

Government data is only as valuable as its credibility allows. These gaffes undermine that credibility and open agencies like the BLS to attack, which is especially problematic when the economy itself is under such scrutiny. But this week’s revision wasn’t the issue.

What I’m watching: With the “Dune” audiobook behind me, I finally watched Denis Villeneuve’s two-part take on the franchise last week. Dune rocks! I love Dune! The spice must flow!

– Brendan Pedersen

Why the McCarthy revenge tour flopped

On Tuesday, Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.) easily won his primary despite outside groups spending millions of dollars on ads attacking his character. As primary season comes to a close, it’s a good time to cast a look back at one of the major storylines: former Speaker Kevin McCarthy’s effort to unseat members who led the motion to vacate push.

In short: McCarthy flopped.

At the start of 2024, McCarthy and his allies talked a big game about targeting members like Reps. Bob Good (R-Va.), Nancy Mace (R-S.C.), Eli Crane (R-Ariz.), Matt Rosendale (R-Mont.) and Gaetz.

Of these members, only Good and Rosendale won’t be returning to Congress next year. Good, the former Freedom Caucus chair fell in a tight defeat to John McGuire. And Rosendale, after launching a brief bid for Senate, opted not to run for reelection at all.

Good’s defeat, in truth, can be attributed in a major way to former President Donald Trump endorsing McGuire. And while Rosendale isn’t coming back to Congress, he wasn’t unseated in a primary.

So with that in mind, McCarthy’s effort to purge Congress of his top tormentors didn’t go very well.

Crane won his primary by 61 points. Gaetz beat his challenger by 45 points. Mace won her primary by 27 points.

Other Republicans who voted to kick out McCarthy include Rep. Ken Buck (R-Colo.), Tim Burchett (Tenn.) and Andy Biggs (Ariz.). Buck has since retired, while Burchett and Biggs both won their primaries without even facing a challenger.

The takeaway: Despite deep-pocketed allies willing to dump millions into primary fights, the GOP base is largely satisfied with the members who kicked out McCarthy. That’s the reality of the modern Republican Party — members who the establishment may view as toxic are still popular back in their districts.

What I’m watching: The Premier League season is back! As a massive Fulham fan, I’m excited to see how Marco Silva leads the club into our third successive season in the top flight.

— Max Cohen