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THE TOP
Happy Friday morning.
A reminder: Punchbowl News is closed next week, and we will not be publishing any regularly scheduled editions. If there’s big breaking news, we’ll be sure to send it your way. Sign up for Premium here to make sure you don’t miss a thing.
The rest of 2023 will be extremely hectic and high-wire for Congress and Washington. We can’t wait to bring you more news about Power, People and Politics in D.C. when we return Sept. 4. Punchbowl News Midday and PM return Sept. 5.
LAS VEGAS — Republicans think they’ve found their blueprint for how to win competitive Senate seats in the Donald Trump era. Now they just have to wait and see if it’ll actually work.
After consecutive cycles of disappointing and sometimes embarrassing losses in winnable states, Senate Republicans’ campaign arm adopted a new strategy this year of boosting certain candidates in GOP primaries whom they believe have the best chance to win the general election.
For Republicans, there’s no better microcosm of that shift than Sam Brown and his bid to oust Sen. Jacky Rosen (D-Nev.) in 2024. In a wide-ranging interview here, Brown detailed his strategy to not only get through what could be a bruising primary against far-right Trump-aligned candidates, but to flip a Senate seat that could help Republicans retake the majority.
And it’ll all come with the backing of senior Republicans in Washington.
“Whether it’s me deciding to run, or senators agreeing to get involved early and support a [candidate], that’s a natural outcome of how dire of a situation we’re in,” Brown, 39, told us in a 30-minute interview off a casino floor. “That’s something that everyone is desperate for — not just voters, but even the senators who are supporting me are desperate for someone who can connect.”
Brown, a decorated Army veteran and graduate of West Point, was nearly killed in Afghanistan in 2008 when a roadside bomb exploded and set him on fire. A Purple Heart recipient, Brown suffered permanent burn wounds and spent three years in rehabilitation. He ran in the GOP Senate primary in 2022 and lost as D.C. Republicans coalesced around Adam Laxalt and Brown ran as an outsider.
Now, Brown is GOP leaders’ top choice to take on Rosen in a state where Republicans have gained significant ground in recent elections. In fact, NRSC Chair Steve Daines (R-Mont.) is hosting a fundraiser for Brown in Washington in September — along with 20 other GOP senators, including practically the entire leadership — according to an invitation we obtained.
Less than a year ago, Nevada featured the closest Senate race in the country when Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D-Nev.) defeated Laxalt by just 8,000 votes. That same year, GOP Gov. Joe Lombardo won his race in part by appealing to independents, whereas Laxalt was focused on driving up turnout among the GOP base.
Brown is already previewing a strategy that mimics that of Lombardo. It involves courting unaffiliated voters — who are now the largest voting bloc in the state, according to voter registration records — and largely avoiding politically toxic issues that could hurt him in a general election.
That means strategically ignoring the former president and many of the Trump-centric themes that define the campaigns of his primary opponents, like the false claim that the 2020 election was stolen.
For the past few election cycles, leadership-aligned Senate Republicans have complained that Trump’s influence has led to the party’s voters nominating lackluster candidates in otherwise winnable states, allowing Democrats to win the majority and then expand it in 2022.
Brown is being exceptionally cautious when it comes to Trump. He declined to say whether he’s comfortable with sharing the GOP ticket with Trump in Nevada, which will be competitive once again at the presidential level as well.
“I’m comfortable with anyone challenging Joe Biden and ultimately defeating Joe Biden,” Brown said, adding that he’ll support the GOP nominee regardless of who wins it.
Brown was a staunch Trump supporter in 2020 and once faulted Laxalt for not doing enough to help Trump challenge the election results that year. This time around, he’s not endorsing anyone or saying who would be the most helpful to his race.
For Brown, criticizing Trump could backfire, especially if the pair will share the GOP ticket in 2024, as appears probable. And Trump remains popular among Republicans in Nevada, though the former president hasn’t endorsed in the Senate contest yet.
Brown’s chief GOP opponents, election-denier Jim Marchant and former U.S. ambassador to Iceland Jeff Gunter, are actively courting Trump’s endorsement and basing their entire campaigns on the former president’s platform. But Republicans back in Washington believe that running exclusively on Trumpism and election lies isn’t a winning strategy in Nevada, as evidenced by Marchant’s loss in the secretary of state’s race last year.
Still, Marchant and Gunter are intensifying their attacks on Brown. Democrats, meanwhile, are amplifying those criticisms — leading to concerns that this could drag down Brown in the general election. One is a recent CNN story alleging that Brown’s PAC used donations to pay down debt from a previous campaign.
But Brown is not going on offense against his primary opponents, instead focusing squarely on Rosen and hammering home the GOP’s message on inflation, energy prices and government spending. A recent poll commissioned by a super PAC supporting Brown found that he has a commanding lead over the rest of the field, but nearly half of GOP voters were undecided.
The NRSC, under Daines’ chairmanship, has all but endorsed Brown as well as Tim Sheehy in Montana and Gov. Jim Justice in West Virginia. All three are running against candidates in the primary whom Republicans believe would have a worse chance of winning the general election. Each of these states, of course, could determine which party controls the Senate.
Brown is in regular contact with Daines and praised him and the other senators who have backed him — including Senate Minority Whip John Thune and GOP Conference Chair John Barrasso (R-Wyo.).
“I’m grateful that we were able to establish a connection, a relationship, and mutual respect and trust in one another,” Brown said of his relationship with Daines. “If we had more Steve Daineses, we’d be better off.”
Brown, of course, is a direct beneficiary of the NRSC’s strategy shift in GOP primaries, so it’s no surprise that he’s happy with Daines. Under Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.), the NRSC didn’t wade into primaries, often leading to GOP nominees who were too extreme to win a general election in a swing state. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell famously referenced this when he suggested Republicans had a “candidate quality” issue in the last campaign.
Now, Brown finds himself as the top choice of Republicans in Washington while also campaigning as an outsider. His success or failure will tell us a lot about how Republicans will approach similar contests in the future.
— Andrew Desiderio
We’re going to North Dakota! Punchbowl News founders Anna Palmer and Jake Sherman will interview Sen. John Hoeven (R-N.D.) and Rep. Kelly Armstrong (R-N.D.) on Friday, Sept. 8 at 12:30 p.m. CT/1:30 p.m. ET in Bismarck, N.D. The conversation is the second in a three-part series presented by Goldman Sachs 10,000 Small Businesses and will focus on the challenges facing small business owners in rural America. Afterward, Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon will join Anna and Jake for a fireside chat. RSVP here!
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45
Trump booked in Georgia
If you didn’t turn on your TV yesterday you may not know that former President Donald Trump was booked in Fulton County jail in connection with charges that he sought to overturn the presidential election in Georgia.
Of course, Trump has a huge number of supporters in Congress — none of whom seem particularly moved by the charges.
Trump said this before leaving Atlanta Thursday evening:
“If you challenge an election, you should be able to challenge an election. I thought the election was a rigged election, a stolen election. And I should have every right to do that.”
The Coverage
NYT
→ | “Trump Surrenders at Atlanta Jail in Georgia Election Interference Case,” by Richard Fausset, Danny Hakim and Thomas Fuller |
→ | “The booking of Trump is only the start of a long legal process,” by James C. McKinley Jr. |
→ | “Who is Trump’s new lead defense lawyer?” by Anna Betts |
Bloomberg
→ | “Trump Returns to Musk’s X With Post of Georgia Mug Shot,” by Michael Sin and Mark Niquette |
AP
→ | “One image, one face, one American moment: The Donald Trump mug shot,” by Jonathan J. Cooper |
→ | “Dozens of Trump supporters cheer him on as former president turns himself in at Georgia jail,” by Sudhin Thanawala and Kate Brumback in Atlanta |
— Jake Sherman
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A leader in the fight against the opioid epidemic.
SUPPLEMENTAL SEASON
Titus pessimistic on supplemental hopes
Rep. Dina Titus (D-Nev.) is uniquely positioned for the upcoming congressional showdown over the White House’s $40 billion supplemental funding request. And the Nevada Democrat — whose committee assignments oversee Ukraine, border policy and FEMA funding — is increasingly pessimistic that the request will pass muster among the GOP-controlled House.
The White House is seeking money to boost Ukraine’s military and economy, fund disaster relief efforts and improve security measures at the U.S.-Mexico border. But in Titus’ eyes, GOP obstruction will play a major role in blocking the administration’s request.
“It’s always hard to speak for Republicans. They act so crazy,” Titus told us when we asked her thoughts on the supplemental’s future. “They don’t care about doing policy, most of them.”
The idea of combining a short-term continuing resolution with the supplemental request has been floated as a potential vehicle for getting the $40 billion package through Congress. Titus isn’t too hot on the idea, however, citing the “grandstanding” influence of the House Freedom Caucus — singling out Reps. Chip Roy (R-Texas) and Lauren Boebert (R-Colo.).
“Ordinarily that might be a tactic, but we’re talking about people who don’t even want to continue government,” Titus said. “They’d just as soon see it shut down. So folding the request into something that continues [funding] government isn’t gonna get those people on board.”
We’ve reported how House GOP leadership is looking to leverage the supplemental request to achieve more conservative policy wins. The White House’s ask for border money is widely considered inadequate by Republicans.
And more and more House Republicans are souring on aid to Ukraine as the conflict stretches on with no clear end in sight.
“It’s interesting to me that they don’t want to send money to an ally in a country on the front lines, fighting against Russia to protect the principles of democracy,” Titus said. “If we don’t send Ukraine assistance and Russia were to overtake Ukraine, that’s not going to be where they stop.”
While Titus isn’t confident about passing the supplemental request, she told us she believed a government shutdown will be avoided in the short term with a CR that lasts until December.
As always, we’ll have the latest on the fall’s funding battles when Congress returns after Labor Day.
— Max Cohen
THE CAMPAIGN
President Joe Biden’s reelection campaign is running ads in Pennsylvania, Georgia, North Carolina, Michigan, Arizona Wisconsin and Nevada touting the economy. This comes a day after the first GOP debate, which had little to offer about economic plans from any of the candidates.
— Jake Sherman
PRESENTED BY EMERGENT
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MOMENTS
President Joe Biden is in Lake Tahoe with no public events scheduled.
12 p.m.: The Senate will meet in a pro forma session.
2 p.m.: Vice President Kamala Harris and Second Gentleman Doug Emhoff will host the Las Vegas Aces at the White House to celebrate their WNBA championship.
2 p.m.: The House will meet in a pro forma session.
CLIP FILE
NYT
→ | “G.O.P. Chair Says Candidates Must Talk About Abortion to Win in 2024,” by Michael Gold |
→ | “‘Let Them Work’: N.Y. Governor Pushes Biden to Speed Up Migrant Permits,” by Luis Ferré-Sadurní in New York and Grace Ashford in Albany, N.Y. |
WaPo
→ | “Ramaswamy and Haley show the GOP’s divergent paths coming out of the debate,” by Maeve Reston, Hannah Knowles, Dylan Wells and Marianne LeVine |
Bloomberg
→ | “Fed’s Jackson Hole Conference Is Underway: Here’s What to Expect,” by Catarina Saraiva and Alexander Weber |
Politico
→ | “From Old to Youngkin: Mixed Motives Drive the GOP Alternatives to Trump,” by Jonathan Martin |
Editorial photos provided by Getty Images. Political ads courtesy of AdImpact.
PRESENTED BY EMERGENT
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As a leader in the fight against the opioid epidemic, Emergent has been committed to access, and awareness, of NARCAN® Nasal Spray soon to be available over the counter.
Find out all the ways Emergent perceives, prepares, and protects.
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